Is Jason Bay's Tenure In Boston Over?

by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 5:24 PM EST in News Comment 54 comments

With the latest contract offer extended to Jason Bay denied, some people think there's little to no chance of Bay going back to Boston:

Jason Bay's tenure with the Red Sox appears over.

The free-agent left fielder has rejected the team's latest offer and is entertaining better proposals from other clubs, according to his agent, Joe Urbon.

"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."

Urbon left open the possibility that the Red Sox could circle back in the negotiations, but did not sound optimistic that it would happen, saying Bay was prepared to "move on."

But honestly: how much do we actually know about Bay, Urbon and the Red Sox?

Rosenthal is one, but there's more that agree -- for the most part -- with the sentiment. MLB.com's Ian Browne, via Twitter:

At this hour, it would be a very big surprise if Jason Bay ends up playing in Boston in 2010.

Boston.com's Chad Finn:

So who's platooning with (Jeremy) Hermida in left?

After seeing Mark Teixeira sign with the Yankees last offseason, nothing really comes as a surprise any more when we're talking baseball free agency.

We don't even know what the Red Sox offered Bay for a contract. We haven't even heard confirmation from anyone other than Bay's agent Urbon that the Red Sox even extended a contract. With Bay's willingness to play in Boston, I'd have no reason to believe that if the Sox came to Urbon with a competitive contract, Bay wouldn't want to sign. After all, it could be a couple of million dollars that is the difference in all of this.

Essentially, we know no details about anything, so why jump to conclusions? The only person that knows anything is Urbon and we have no idea what he's holding back, if anything.

Jason Bay could be the Red Sox's 2010 left fielder. Or maybe not. I'd say it's 50/50 right now, because honestly, what do we really know?

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See ya, Jason..........

good luck, bud. You’re just not THAT AWESOME, guy.
go bilk some other team.

i don’t even want this guy on our squad now.

by Snowball on Dec 12, 2009 5:32 PM EST reply actions

I will feel bad for any team who gives them that fifth year

by Lolmoarpl0x on Dec 12, 2009 5:33 PM EST reply actions

Meh

Have we signed Beltre yet? Bay is old news now, especially if he ends up with a 5/80 contract, which doesn’t appear too far fetched now. Hopefully we don’t throw $140m at Holliday as recompense, because I really have major doubts that he can hit outside of the greatly-inferior NL.

Anyone willing to gave Jason Bay more than 70m deserves him.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 5:35 PM EST reply actions

Here's an idea

What about Johnny Gomes? He had a great year with the Reds but was weirdly nontendered (for a team in desperate need of help, a strange move), and is a righty. Platoon him with Hermida and you should get at least league-average, maybe more when you factor in Fenway.

Yes, the defense will suck terribly, but it’s the Monster for 81. If Manny managed not to kill this club in left, it can’t be much worse. Plus it’s cheap, giving us some money to… spend… somewhere.

Shame we can’t just buy Gonzalez from the Padres.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 5:39 PM EST reply actions

Gomes had a ridiculous HR/FB%

He’s not gonna replicate that in a million years.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

Also, he’s a low class putz. We don’t need a guy like that here.

by RSNexile on Dec 12, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Not a fan of Gomes.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

+2

Gomes isn’t very good.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions

Gomes is a punk

He’s not that great with the bat, and he sucker punched Coco. Guy is a douche.

by brogshan on Dec 12, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

too much

Too much money for a guy that K’s that much … and can’t play outfield better than a rookie in A ball … I still can’t believe how bad he played in spring training, I thought it was some no name rookie out there.

by Old Fan on Dec 12, 2009 5:56 PM EST reply actions

Holliday

Would love to see Holliday roaming LF but I have an inkling we will see a Hermida/Another platoon

by BobZupcic on Dec 12, 2009 6:11 PM EST reply actions

Give me Beltre and Cameron

Pass on Bay. Not worth the money.

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by totheights on Dec 12, 2009 6:22 PM EST reply actions

from WEEI:

“Major league source told WEEI.com that one team has extended offer of beyond four years for Bay. "

Mets? Angels? Not Boston is all I know.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 6:25 PM EST reply actions

More likely Seattle

by RSNexile on Dec 12, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

Seattle apparently isn't in the mix at all

I’d lean toward the Angels I guess… question mark?

Actually, I guarantee you it’s just a lie.

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by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 6:36 PM EST up reply actions

It's the Mets

today’s Times details just how stupid Minaya is in his thinking that somehow Bay will put the Mets over the top with their staff of Santana+dogshit.

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

Minaya may be the dumbest GM ever.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

haha

did he slap your mom or something?

by revived0103 on Dec 13, 2009 2:02 AM EST up reply actions

A simple look at WAR in 2009

Bay: 3.5
Lowell: 1.2
Beltre: 2.4
Hermida: 0.3

So we lose 4.7 and gain 2.7. We need someone better than Hermida. Bring in Mike Cameron (4.3) and we actually have a much stronger team for 2010 than we had in 2009.

by RSNexile on Dec 12, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions

You're gaining wins too by moving Ellsbury to left where he could Crawford like numbers in terms of WAR

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Dec 12, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions

I hate people who just look at stats as the end all be all

You gotta use the eye test too.

by totheights on Dec 12, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions

what is the eye test?

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

Stats are the end all be all

WAR, however, is not. Too many flaws with that stat to treat it as such. I remember a couple of years ago when people were using WARP to figure out how many wins a team would have by subtracting one player and adding another, now no one does. It’s only a matter a time before WAR gets replaced and we look at ourselves as foolish for using it so much.

by Gnick on Dec 12, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions

Did you know

that the correlation between a team’s WAR in W-L record was 0.83. That is a remarkably tight correlation. Explain away.

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

But what about the other 31% of the variation?

If the correlation is .83, WAR only explains 69% of the variation in W/L. So where’s the other 31%?

(It’s not a serious question. I’m just waiting for someone to mention “intangibles.”)

by RSNexile on Dec 12, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Camaraderie and Hustle.

by wolf9309 on Dec 12, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

Rally monkeys and thunder sticks.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Dec 12, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

And powder blue cowbells.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Dec 13, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Well, I have 20/10 vision

My eyes tell me a team with Beltre and Cameron is much stronger than a team with Lowell and Bay.

by RSNexile on Dec 12, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

amen

by revived0103 on Dec 13, 2009 2:03 AM EST up reply actions

At Viva El Birdos they’ve they’ve compared if the runs scored were equal to every team and they came up to the conclusion that:

For good teams, however (ones that score more than they allow), a run saved is actually more valuable than a run scored (blue region). In contrast, for bad teams, a run saved is less valuable.

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Dec 12, 2009 6:50 PM EST reply actions

Link

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Dec 12, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

Randy you seem sad about this?

This is good news for us. He was barely worth the 4/60 contract he was offered let alone more. I wont miss him at all. Get Cameron and we are a better team and have more finacial flexibility.

by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 12, 2009 6:55 PM EST reply actions

to be fair

Bay is a big bat, and although he sucks in the field he still was a 3-4 WAR player. Cameron is 37-you can’t really depend on a guy that old. Plus, we don’t know what Ells can do in LF really, and his “value” is a lot less in LF. I am not crushed by it (I think Bay will be way overpaid) but it takes away one option that pushes the team. It might also drive up the price (for the Sox) for Holliday since they don’t have the obvious fall back. I do think the Cameron idea, if things broke right, could actually make the team stronger for next year, but it is not a long term solution and it comes with a lot of questions (it would perhaps mean 4 guys playing new positions for the team, we would have a 37 year old CF…)

by Buzzy on Dec 12, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

It also fits perfectly with the organization

we have 2 OF most likely ready for 2011 starting so that 1 year cameron seems like an awesome fit.

by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 12, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

We have a decent sample of games for Ellsbury in left to judge

80 games between 2007 and 2008, including 51 starts. Not a huge sample, but it’s suggestive. Ellsbury’s UZR/150 for those games was 21.8.

by RSNexile on Dec 12, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions

Fenway is death to UZR

Plus, yet again, defense means nothing in left at Fenway. Quick release is pretty much the only factor. If we’re talking about the other 81, fine, but for 81 it’s largely meaningless.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions

Defense is never “meaningless.”

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

If it is meaningless anywhere

In baseball (except for the LA Coliseum, Baker Bowl and League Park), it is left field at Fenway Park.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Dec 12, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions

Bad D anywhere costs games

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions

really the sox only have two options

and they must pick one of them or they will be markedly worse next year. so for that reason i’m excited. Either holliday or cameron would make the team a lot better. there’s a lot of risk in both moves. With holliday the risk is financial. With cameron the risk is age. To me holliday is a stud and much more of a sure thing than cameron. He would fill the middle of the order, improve the defense, make the team younger and make our compensation to toronto more bearable. Holliday is the only top FA we’re gonna sign for a while. If anybody is thinking Joe Mauer, dream on. If the yankees want him, and they will, they’ll get him. The only way he doesn’t go to NYY is if he extends with minnesota. Holliday is expensive, but he’s a sure thing. Our payroll will go up for a year, but who cares? He will improve both our offense and defense greatly.

by revived0103 on Dec 13, 2009 2:17 AM EST up reply actions