Is Jason Bay's Tenure In Boston Over?
by Randy Booth on Dec 12, 2009 5:24 PM EST
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PrintWith the latest contract offer extended to Jason Bay denied, some people think there's little to no chance of Bay going back to Boston:
Jason Bay's tenure with the Red Sox appears over.
The free-agent left fielder has rejected the team's latest offer and is entertaining better proposals from other clubs, according to his agent, Joe Urbon.
"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."
Urbon left open the possibility that the Red Sox could circle back in the negotiations, but did not sound optimistic that it would happen, saying Bay was prepared to "move on."
But honestly: how much do we actually know about Bay, Urbon and the Red Sox?
Rosenthal is one, but there's more that agree -- for the most part -- with the sentiment. MLB.com's Ian Browne, via Twitter:
At this hour, it would be a very big surprise if Jason Bay ends up playing in Boston in 2010.
So who's platooning with (Jeremy) Hermida in left?
After seeing Mark Teixeira sign with the Yankees last offseason, nothing really comes as a surprise any more when we're talking baseball free agency.
We don't even know what the Red Sox offered Bay for a contract. We haven't even heard confirmation from anyone other than Bay's agent Urbon that the Red Sox even extended a contract. With Bay's willingness to play in Boston, I'd have no reason to believe that if the Sox came to Urbon with a competitive contract, Bay wouldn't want to sign. After all, it could be a couple of million dollars that is the difference in all of this.
Essentially, we know no details about anything, so why jump to conclusions? The only person that knows anything is Urbon and we have no idea what he's holding back, if anything.
Jason Bay could be the Red Sox's 2010 left fielder. Or maybe not. I'd say it's 50/50 right now, because honestly, what do we really know?
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See ya, Jason..........
good luck, bud. You’re just not THAT AWESOME, guy.
go bilk some other team.
i don’t even want this guy on our squad now.
Meh
Have we signed Beltre yet? Bay is old news now, especially if he ends up with a 5/80 contract, which doesn’t appear too far fetched now. Hopefully we don’t throw $140m at Holliday as recompense, because I really have major doubts that he can hit outside of the greatly-inferior NL.
Anyone willing to gave Jason Bay more than 70m deserves him.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Here's an idea
What about Johnny Gomes? He had a great year with the Reds but was weirdly nontendered (for a team in desperate need of help, a strange move), and is a righty. Platoon him with Hermida and you should get at least league-average, maybe more when you factor in Fenway.
Yes, the defense will suck terribly, but it’s the Monster for 81. If Manny managed not to kill this club in left, it can’t be much worse. Plus it’s cheap, giving us some money to… spend… somewhere.
Shame we can’t just buy Gonzalez from the Padres.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Gomes had a ridiculous HR/FB%
He’s not gonna replicate that in a million years.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 12, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Not a fan of Gomes.
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+2
Gomes isn’t very good.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
too much
Too much money for a guy that K’s that much … and can’t play outfield better than a rookie in A ball … I still can’t believe how bad he played in spring training, I thought it was some no name rookie out there.
Holliday
Would love to see Holliday roaming LF but I have an inkling we will see a Hermida/Another platoon
Give me Beltre and Cameron
Pass on Bay. Not worth the money.
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from WEEI:
“Major league source told WEEI.com that one team has extended offer of beyond four years for Bay. "
Mets? Angels? Not Boston is all I know.
Seattle apparently isn't in the mix at all
I’d lean toward the Angels I guess… question mark?
Actually, I guarantee you it’s just a lie.
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It's the Mets
today’s Times details just how stupid Minaya is in his thinking that somehow Bay will put the Mets over the top with their staff of Santana+dogshit.
Minaya may be the dumbest GM ever.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
A simple look at WAR in 2009
Bay: 3.5
Lowell: 1.2
Beltre: 2.4
Hermida: 0.3
So we lose 4.7 and gain 2.7. We need someone better than Hermida. Bring in Mike Cameron (4.3) and we actually have a much stronger team for 2010 than we had in 2009.
You're gaining wins too by moving Ellsbury to left where he could Crawford like numbers in terms of WAR
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Stats are the end all be all
WAR, however, is not. Too many flaws with that stat to treat it as such. I remember a couple of years ago when people were using WARP to figure out how many wins a team would have by subtracting one player and adding another, now no one does. It’s only a matter a time before WAR gets replaced and we look at ourselves as foolish for using it so much.
by Gnick on Dec 12, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
Did you know
that the correlation between a team’s WAR in W-L record was 0.83. That is a remarkably tight correlation. Explain away.
But what about the other 31% of the variation?
If the correlation is .83, WAR only explains 69% of the variation in W/L. So where’s the other 31%?
(It’s not a serious question. I’m just waiting for someone to mention “intangibles.”)
Well, I have 20/10 vision
My eyes tell me a team with Beltre and Cameron is much stronger than a team with Lowell and Bay.
At Viva El Birdos they’ve they’ve compared if the runs scored were equal to every team and they came up to the conclusion that:
For good teams, however (ones that score more than they allow), a run saved is actually more valuable than a run scored (blue region). In contrast, for bad teams, a run saved is less valuable.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
Randy you seem sad about this?
This is good news for us. He was barely worth the 4/60 contract he was offered let alone more. I wont miss him at all. Get Cameron and we are a better team and have more finacial flexibility.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 12, 2009 6:55 PM EST reply actions
to be fair
Bay is a big bat, and although he sucks in the field he still was a 3-4 WAR player. Cameron is 37-you can’t really depend on a guy that old. Plus, we don’t know what Ells can do in LF really, and his “value” is a lot less in LF. I am not crushed by it (I think Bay will be way overpaid) but it takes away one option that pushes the team. It might also drive up the price (for the Sox) for Holliday since they don’t have the obvious fall back. I do think the Cameron idea, if things broke right, could actually make the team stronger for next year, but it is not a long term solution and it comes with a lot of questions (it would perhaps mean 4 guys playing new positions for the team, we would have a 37 year old CF…)
It also fits perfectly with the organization
we have 2 OF most likely ready for 2011 starting so that 1 year cameron seems like an awesome fit.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 12, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions
We have a decent sample of games for Ellsbury in left to judge
80 games between 2007 and 2008, including 51 starts. Not a huge sample, but it’s suggestive. Ellsbury’s UZR/150 for those games was 21.8.
Fenway is death to UZR
Plus, yet again, defense means nothing in left at Fenway. Quick release is pretty much the only factor. If we’re talking about the other 81, fine, but for 81 it’s largely meaningless.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Defense is never “meaningless.”
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
If it is meaningless anywhere
In baseball (except for the LA Coliseum, Baker Bowl and League Park), it is left field at Fenway Park.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Bad D anywhere costs games
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
really the sox only have two options
and they must pick one of them or they will be markedly worse next year. so for that reason i’m excited. Either holliday or cameron would make the team a lot better. there’s a lot of risk in both moves. With holliday the risk is financial. With cameron the risk is age. To me holliday is a stud and much more of a sure thing than cameron. He would fill the middle of the order, improve the defense, make the team younger and make our compensation to toronto more bearable. Holliday is the only top FA we’re gonna sign for a while. If anybody is thinking Joe Mauer, dream on. If the yankees want him, and they will, they’ll get him. The only way he doesn’t go to NYY is if he extends with minnesota. Holliday is expensive, but he’s a sure thing. Our payroll will go up for a year, but who cares? He will improve both our offense and defense greatly.
Holliday doesn't really make our lineup younger
this year he’ll be the same age Bay was last year and by the end of his contract, will be almost Cameron-age
Actually, I don't think he was worth the 4/60 contract
He might be worth $15M this year. But if he ends up being worth $60M over the next four years, someone should ask Barry Bonds what he’s taking.
he isn't even worth 4/60
IIRC he was worth about 15 million this year, in one of his best seasons. he’s downhill from here.
Im also surprised that some NL teams (Mets, Giants) seem so interested
we could atleast move him to DH in the future.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 12, 2009 7:00 PM EST reply actions
that's true
though no matter how far Bay’s defense falls, I have trouble seeing it be quite that bad.
Beltre
Beltre’s WAR was 2.4 last year on a down year at the pate and with some injuries…more recently he’s been a 4+ type player due to his tremendous defense.
I don't think many people could be 2.4 WAR
with a contused testicle.
Plus after he got hit that day he finished out the game. Now THAT is a ballplayer.
Ha!
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 12, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
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