Yo, Adrian (Beltre)! Where You At? We're Waiting
by Randy Booth on Dec 11, 2009 12:34 PM EST
in News
Email
PrintNow it's time for us Sox fans to play the waiting game. A waiting game that could take just a few days, but it will probably feel like an eternity.
What are we waiting for? First, the Mike Lowell trade to go through. As we know, that's pending everything medical related. That could certainly hit a snag as both Lowell and Max Ramirez have injury history.
But we're also waiting for Adrian Beltre. If Theo Epstein is the general manager we know he is, he's trying to work out a deal for the amazing defender as you read this.
Don't be fooled: the Red Sox are most certainly interested in Beltre:
...it increasingly appears that they’re preparing to make a serious run at free agent defensive whiz Adrian Beltre.
According to multiple sources, the Red Sox are believed to have significant interest in the third baseman, whom they have long admired for his combination of defense and power.
[...]
But the Sox don’t view Beltre as just any player. They believe he is one of the most game-changing defenders in the majors. He’d perfectly fulfill their goal of completing a defensive makeover from 2009, when the left side of their infield was slow (Lowell) and inconsistent (the shortstops before Alex Gonzalez was acquired).
Let's take a closer look at Beltre's defense in comparison to Lowell's, courtesy of The Bill James Handbook:
Runs Saved, Third Basemen
3-Year Leaders
Beltre - +51 (2nd overall) *Ryan Zimmerman, 1st, 53Runs Saved, Third Basemen
2009
Beltre - +22 (3rd overall)
Lowell - -18 (tied, dead last)This is a 40-point swing in runs saved! Michael Young tied with Lowell with -18 -- and now they're teammates.
Plus/Minus, Third Basemen
3-Year Leaders
Beltre - +66 (1st overall)Plus/Minus, Third Basemen
2009
Beltre - +27 (3rd overall)
Lowell - -23 (dead last)This time, a 50-point swing.
For more information on Plus/Minus and Runs Saved, visit FieldingBible.com.
Hopefully that helps put Beltre's and Lowell's abilities at third base into perspective a little bit better. Simply, Beltre is much, much better. Lowell, who used to be an amazing defender, has seen his best days.
Now the offense may be more of a question mark in most peoples' minds. The Red Sox, though, seem to think Beltre in Fenway would be great for the third baseman:
Offensively, the Red Sox believe Beltre’s production could increase dramatically once he leaves Seattle’s expansive Safeco Field, which has depressed the production of many right-handed hitters.
The home/road splits certainly bear this out.
In the last three years, Beltre has posted a below-average .703 OPS at home but an above-average .819 OPS on the road. He’ll never be a high on-base percentage player (.325 lifetime), but if he slugs close to .500, as he has on the road, he’ll provide at least as much offense as the Red Sox could have expected out of the soon-to-be-36-year-old Lowell.
It all comes down to the contract. Beltre and agent Scott Boras want five years, but the Sox won't (shouldn't) get sucked into that deal. If they can bring him down to three, that'd be amazing, but unrealistic. Maybe three an an option for a fourth? Maybe just straight four with a club option for a fifth? The money will also be hookup (obviously -- we're talking Boras here), as they are seeking around $12 million a season. Seems a little steep considering Chone Figgins racked in four-years, $36 million. I'll take that deal for Beltre.
Now let's wait and see if Beltre comes aboard as the Hot Stove hopefully keeps true to its name (because it's cold, darn it).
138 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'm warming to the idea of having Beltre on the team
But I’m just not sure about all this effort to get him. I suppose if the potential that Max Ramirez brings either as the future catcher/1b/dh or an excellent trade chip is worth $9 mil, then the deal is worth it.
Agreed
I like the idea of Beltre. I am just baffled by getting Max Ramirez. Not that he isn’t a great player or have the potential to be a great player. It just doesn’t seem like a good fit for the sox.
Maybe we'll flip him.
Package him in a deal elsewhere…
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Very possible
I don’t really see the Sox looking at him as a catcher of the future. Hopefully they think Expo is in line for that… (crosses fingers…)
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
Just for point of reference
A team that gives up 736 runs and scores 872, as the Sox did this year, can be expected to win 94.6 games.
Using FanGraph’s numbers, if we’d had Beltre instead of Lowell this year, we would have given up 25 fewer runs and scored 13 more runs. That Sox team would have given up 711 runs and scored 859, and could have been expected to win 96.1 games.
1.5 games is a decent sized difference. Now factor in that Beltre is five years younger.
Also
Beltre SHOULD hit better in Fenway…
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
So Is Adrian Gonzalez a bust?
Because he may cost some prospects, but for the long term he might be more worth it than tangoing with Boras for Adrian Beltre-whose offense, while supposedly decent, hasn’t been at all good the last couple of years. And yes, I know Safeco field is a problem for a power hitter, but the averages have been lackluster also.
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."-Manny Ramirez
i'm not into the adrian gonzalez idea
for two reasons. Big reason: the prospects. Smaller reason: having to move youk to third to full time, where he’s not as good. i like getting the most out of everyone.
as for beltre’s offense, his last full year in 2008, he was great. On the road that is. Even his average which you brought up was .292 on the road.
Most hitters are better at home. They’re more comfortable there, they go home at night… If beltre is this good on the road, you have to believe that his numbers at fenway over 80 games would be even better. If he puts up road numbers like he did in 08, he might get close to a .900 OPS. Plus the best defense in the league. Good thing I’m not Scott Boras.
+1 on Adrian
He would probably cost Bard, Westmoreland, and Kelly, which is too much. Also, I would play Youk at 3B for a year or two but ideally not long-term.
Haha
True. Adrian Gonzalez! I can’t say just Gonzo or Adrian anymore cuz they’re both 2 different people linked in some way to the Sox
i dont think its a bust!!
i think adrian gonzalez is eventually coming to boston its just a matter of when and hell yes hes worth giving up prospects for, he’s young and if we can lock him into a long term deal that would be huge for boston. he would be an absolute monster at fenway and his defensive skills are probably the best in baseball and i think we’ll eventually see a deal but not for awhile.
If by "not for awhile" you mean "a year from now" then...sure
By all accounts the Pads are willing to listen but aren’t really interested in getting rid of Adrian unless they get to rape some system.
Personally, unless they figure they can extend him, I don’t really get it. I don’t think they can seriously contend in the next two years, and then he’s gone, but maybe they think a team right on the cusp of contending will overpay more than they will now.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 11, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
not thrilled
no-name pitchers aside, what’s happenned ? Theo wrote off Lowell, they signed Scutaro for millions more than Gonzalez would have signed for, and now we’re supposed to be thrilled about Beltre, whose offensive stats are in deterioration ?
Scutaro is only a minor improvement. Lowell bat gone. Telling you now, if the Sox don’t ante-up for Jason Bay this year, Theo doesn’t have a clue. Gonzalez signed for 2.75m with Blue Jays. Scutaro is 7 mil a year. Looks to me like that money could have been spent on keeping Bay.
If Sox let Bay go and spend that money on Beltre, I’m done. DONE.
I'm going to let Ben Buchanan answer this because he's really good at that
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
He truly is.
He is almost as knowledgable as the dearly departed USG… What ever happened to him, anyway?
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
I heard...
…they got him in Cleveland. Just like Snake Plissken.
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 11, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Scutaro is $5MM a year, not 7. I don’t think you can rip Theo for what he’s doing. Scutaro is an upgrade over Gonzalez/Lugo/Green, and Beltre would be an upgrade over Lowell. Assuming we sign Beltre, our infield defense improves greatly and our infield offense maybe steps up a notch, but probably stays about the same. That is a win right there.
The left field subject is a completely different debate. I’d like to see Bay or Holliday, but I’m also content with finding a great defensive OF, and save money to land a big fish next off-season.
In effect, 7Mil
When you factor in the signing bonus and buyout for year 3, it’s 14 million if he stays just the 2 years. Yes, they may both opt out, but not likely at Scutaro’s age at that time.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
12.5 if he stays just the two, I believe.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 11, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
If they both opt out at the end.
The odds are against him playing the free agent market at the end of the first two years. He’ll exercise his option.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
The buyout is 1.5 million
1+5+5+1.5 = 12.5
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 11, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Which is to say, we can buy out his contract option whether he opts into it or not, I believe.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 11, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I apologize, Ben Buchanan.
I kinda confused myself there for a bit.
You know I’m not so good at this number stuff…. ;)
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Its highly unlikely that we buy him out though. There is almost no scenario where he isnt worth 1.5 Mio for the last year though
cause thats the difference between his player option 3M and the buy out 1.5M. With his ability to play all infield position he will be worth 1.5M more to be our utility infielder atleast. So the contract is more like 14M for 3 years
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 11, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
well he'll be old
he may not be the best option at that point. But yeah, the contract looks much better/year if we kept him a third
Scutaro contract
$5MM in 2010, $5MM in 2011, and a 2012 option with a $6MM club option, $3MM player option, and $1.5MM buyout. That makes it a two-year, $11.5MM deal
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
He's guaranteed 12.5MM
There musta been a 1MM signing bonus.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Yep
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
There can be.
In this case, there is. $1 million.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 11, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Beltre in decline
“but the averages have been lackluster also”
they are no better than a cheap prospect can produce, quite frankly.
$cott Borass
Once again, Boras is going to ask for some ridiculous contract in terms of years and dollars for his client. I don’t have a link, but I read that he compared Beltre’s bat to that of Jason Bay, which is completely ridiculous.
I like the Figgins contract comparison. Obviously they’re two different players in terms of what they bring to the table offensively. When you compare them last year, Figgins was good at the plate while Beltre was not (although he was injured). This should give us some leverage in negotiating with Boras, and hopefully we pay Beltre less per year than Figgins got from Seattle.
No Way
do we give Beltre more than Figgins, especially considering the off year. I have zero faith in Theo, but even he wouldn’t go for that.
With that said, I would be thrilled with 4/32.
Why do you have zero faith in Theo?
Are you some kind of weird Dan Duquette fan or something?
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 11, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
I too am disappointed in Theo
He came in, and took the Red Sox to the playoffs every year except 2006, and won two World Series. Not Seven, not five, just two. Any right-thinking Sawx fan would be clamoring for regime change, and welcome the new people as liberators. There’s no reason the Sox shouldn’t win the pennant and World Series every single year. IMHO!
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
He also signed
Matt Clement, Matt Mantei, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, Edgar Renteria, Marco Scutaro, Jason Varitek (2005 version), Jason Varitek (2009 version)…, Daisuke Matsuzaka and so on.
Every GM makes good and bad deals, but I believe the former outweigh the latter especially over the last few years. If he had half the budget he’d win half the games.
So
A GM is only successful if EVERY single acquisition works out amazingly? He was justified or had good reason for all of those signings. And how can you even say Dice-K is a bust? Give the guy some time.
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
from the same post
“Every GM makes good and bad deals, but I believe the former outweigh the latter especially over the last few years.”
Completely silly
of all those you listed, only Lugo and Renteria were real and expensive mistakes. Matsuzaka was not a mistake, Scutaro was cheap and has yet to even play for the Sox, Lowell was not a sign but a resign (at what was considered below market), Tek in 05 was an overpay, but he had a good 07 and helped us win a title. Clement had an injury (hard to predict) that totally changed his trajectory. Smoltz and Penny were low pay 1 year deals, and even Penny was actually worth his contract. Please, this is pure stupidity. 2 real mistakes in 7 years. Hmm. Please, tell me who is a better GM?
I wish I knew the average percentage for deals that "work out"
Because I have faith in thinking Theo is either at the top of that list or very close.
Clement was great until he got hit in the head with a line drive. Mantei had a huge arm with potential at a low cost. Penny logged quite a few quality starts before being released, but yes, he wasn’t as good as people hoped. Smoltz was bad. Lowell (I assume you mean the signing, not the trade, which Theo was not a part of) was coming off a WS MVP and I think Theo made that deal just to make fans happy. There was A LOT of pressure to re-sign him. Plus, if he’s gone now, that’s not a bad two years out of him. Edgar + Lugo both seemed like great fits, but they failed. Edgar wasn’t even horrible, just didn’t live up to expectations. Varitek? More of a pressure thing as well. He’s done after ’10.
And Dice-K, c’mon, he definitely needs more time.
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
Atleast you have good taste in music
That El-P album was a good one.
I didn't like the old one very much. I didn't see the ball there very well. - Julio Lugo on the old Yankees Stadium.
The Sox really haven't been big players in the FA Market
As FA, he signed Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, Kevin Millar, Keith Foulke, JD Drew—all good signings. He has made smart trades and waiver signings, and drafted well (you know, those dumb prospects teams like to hold onto).
Penny wasn’t a bad signing last year. The Sox didn’t pay too much for him. Let’s wait and see on Scutaro. And Dice-K is a good signing. His contract is cheap. He’ll give the Sox AJ Burnett-like production for half the cost.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 11, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Matsuzaka
Costs us $16m a season. He’s had one good year. I do like the guy, but it certainly did not work out like we planned. Plus, think of the mental anguish he’s cost RSN over the last few years. Any time I see him in my 20-25 games a season I get sympathy instead of excitement from others.
I really hope he is working hard at API and brings it in ’10.
NO
he does not cost us $16 million a season. He costs us $8 million.
There was an extra $50 million which did not go to him and is not part of his contract. It was a seperate business decision, and a very wise one because of all the merchanding from Japan having Matsuzaka has brought us. That paid off. His cost is $8 million a year which he will easily be worth over the course of his contract.
I said
“Matsuzaka costs us $16m a year.”
Merchandising means nothing since merch goes into the MLB general fund. We put $102m into 6 years into him, or roughly $16m/yer.
Exactly
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 11, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
no again
we put $50 million in to talk to him and we are putting in $8 million a year.
It’s not salary for the CBT and does bring extra business to the ballpark.
amongst other things
a very large portion of the red sox money is NESN. The fans are watching, no matter where in the world they are.
I don't understand how you can say
Scutaro was a bad deal when he hasn’t played a game in a sox uniform yet.
Daisuke’s here for a while. Last year was terrible but it won’t happen again.
Penny did what he was supposed to, which was be the 5th starter until Smoltz was ready to come in- just Smoltz ended up failing and with injuries, he ended up having to be the 3rd starter.
The highly successful players on the team, for the most part, are the young, inexpensive players (Pedroia, Lester, Youk, Ells). That’s part of GMing too.
I dislike
No upside players who will struggle to hit .720 with a decent but unexceptional glove don’t do it for me. Especially when we lose a pick.
yes but
if you’re going to look at all the other deals in hindsight, you need to list that one seperately as one you think will be a bad signing. The fact is he’s pretty cheap and better than any other option available- he reliable has a good OBP, which is much better than the other options which were by and large automatic outs in the 9 hole.
He's not pretty cheap
When replacement level is, what, .670-.680? is .04 with a meh glove worth $6m a year? I don’t think it is.
Dude
what is your point? What is your solution for SS? Sctaro was the best we could do with the doubts about Lowrie’s health and nothing else to improve the team. And don’t say “Theo signed Lugo/Renteria” to lead us to this road since Theo actually did not want to trade HanRam and would not have if he was acting GM at the time…
My solution was
anyone. Any bargain basement AAA nobody like Nick Green, to play with the 3 games a year Lowrie isn’t injured. SS is a nothing offensive position unless you have a star, so don’t throw $14m over 3 years at it.
Scutaro is not a good ballplayer, he’s at best avg or slightly below. I don’t see wasting money that could go to solutions on someone like him.
To be honest
I would have been fine with this “solution” too, but Scutaro is a 2.5 WAR SS-worth far more than his contract and is probably as good as Lowrie for at least the 2 years he is signed.
Theo overpaid a bit in the draft pick for SS stability
Scutaro really had been a utility player up until 2 years ago when the Blue Jays decided to give him more playing time, and his value as a whole went up when that happened. It’s arguable that with the increased playing time he developed his skills to be an all-around average SS, which is valuable in this day in age.
You can argue he shouldn’t have given up a draft pick for Scutaro, and I’d agree, but the contract itself isn’t really an overpay, and not sure why you’re sticking with the fact that it was. We haven’t had 2.5 WAR out of SS for a while it seems.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 11, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't the fact
that he’s been a util guy a huge warning sign?
The draft pick & money combined kill me. When we’re up against a 65m shortfall vs. the Yankees, spending $6m a year on this is insane.
6 million a year
for an average SS isn’t bad. “average” may not sound exciting, but we literally have not had close to average production at SS since OC. Except for Lowrie for a little while in 08.
If the extra $6m for an average player who stabilizes the position stops us from signing a guy like Beltre or Holliday
I’ll tip my cap to you.
If not, sorry, that stability is important considering what kind of production we’ve gotten from SS.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 11, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
$14,000,000.00
is some serious money. It won’t keep us from getting Beltre, but it could prevent us from getting Holliday (which, I guess, would be a good thing all things considered). I’d rather throw that money at a couple of Dominican kids than someone we know won’t be any good.
It’s not stability when average is the best-case scenario.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
what's $14 million?
Scutaro+ Lugo? If so, you can’t look at the Lugo money as part of what we’re paying Scutaro. That money’s gone, it ended up being a poor decision, but doesn’t make $5 mill for Scutaro a poor decision. That money’s gone, and if you look at it as part of the cost of any shortstop we get, they’ll look overpaid- imagine paying Green $10 million to ss next year!
the last two years
He has been a 2.7 and 4.5 WAR player.
It’s also worth mentioning that 09 was not all luck improvement- with Gaston he re-evaluted his stance and batting approach and changed his mechanics significantly and that was credited with a lot of his improvment. I don’t know that he’ll be at the same level, but he should be good. It’s also only a 2-year stopgap contract.
I’m not arguing that he is Hanley or anything, but he was the best option available
Matt Clement wasn't a bad signing
He was on fire up until he collected that come-backer to the melon. After that his shit was terrible. Can’t see that coming.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Untrue
If you look at the numbers, the collapse started several starts prior to the braining. He fell apart in the 2nd half of every season (iirc) with the Cubs.
He still hasn't been the same since
Not good in either first or second halves.
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
He may have been had a handful of bad starts before the ball to the skull...
…but lots of folks have a string of sub-par starts. There was a marked difference in his overall…stuff…when he was transformed into Massive Headwound Harry.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
He almost signed Pavano...
He or his minions didn’t pursue the Damon sweepstakes, give Petey a fourth year, give Lowell a fourth year, signed Orlando Cabrera, threatened to trade ManChild Ramirez for Magglio Ordóñez in a three way trade.. etc. The Sox and Theo have made unpopular decisions at the time, but in hindsight they were correct decisions in the long run
Theo has made some mistakes, but he hasn’t done a Barry Zito/Vernon Wells type of mistake that has made a serious deadweight and drag for the team.. If any player is closest to deadweight, it was Lugo, even though he showed some signs of hitting again before put on waivers.
4/32 sounds about right
Ideally, it would be a 3-year deal somewhere in the range of 3/24. But you know Boras. He’ll ask for 5/55.
I'd love 3/24-3/27 with maybe a mutual option for a 4th year
But if a 4th is necessary, I’d be fine with 4/32
Hey, I can ask
for a Bentley for 500 bucks, doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen. No way Beltre comes close to 40m, and with his options being somewhat limited (I have total faith in him, but that’s because his value is dramatically higher for us playing at Fenway than anywhere else), and coming off of a terrible season, he’d need a big market team with a 3b opening to absorb the risk. Cubs have Aramis, Yanks have slappy, Mets have Wright, Phils have Polanco and so on.
So it’s Angels, Giants or Red Sox, right?
I think the angels
are pretty excited about having Brandon Wood at 3rd. Unless maybe if they actually trade Aybar for Halladay. So unless that happens, they’re out. I don’t think the Giants offense is really in the position to gamble that Beltre’s will come back, so I’m guessing they’re probably not gonna be too tempted.
Boras is having a weird year in that his clients don’t have every team looking for them.
Giants are reportedly in on both DeRosa and Uggla for 3B
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 11, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
i think today they said
if they get Uggla, he’ll stay at 2nd and their 2nd baseman will move to 3rd. Sounds silly to me.
I can't imagine the Giants go in on a questionable bat.
They know they need offense.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 11, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
Beltre is the best solution
I want Gonzo as well, but it’s not going to happen. The team hoards prospects (except for crapping one away on Scutaro weirdly), and so they’ll never trade that much even for such a sure-fire hitter. I really don’t know their overarching strategy, beyond searching for average at every position. But I digress…
Beltre is a great signing who will crush at Fenway. He’s a dead pull hitter who will pepper the monster. His away numbers outside of a down 2009 are universally excellent, and are likely his true performance level. Plus, he’s only 31 with no clear sign of downward trends.
Oh, and he’s also the best 3b in baseball.
http://www.virtualfenway.com
defensively best?
maybe. Or maybe Zimmerman. I haven’t really watched either enough to say for sure, but they’re both pretty impressive.
Longoria is great
Offensively and defensively. A much better player in general, no doubt. But I think Beltre is more impressive defensively (Joe Maddon agrees)
I go by the Fielding Bible
Over UZR, and they ranked him as the best in ’08, and for that matter 2006-2008. May have changed in ’09, but I like those numbers.
Zimm was No. 1 3B in '09
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
Zimm, Beltre and Longoria can basically be swapped defensively
All really good
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
Gonzo = Alex Gonzalez
AGon = Adrian Gonzalez
I think you want AGon, right?
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
I am very lazy
And so any player with Gonzalez as a last name will become Gonzo. I apologize for the shortcut.
there was a time in the 2009 season
when I was afraid we would have both on the team. Imagine the confusion of having two A. Gonzalez’. Of course not nearly as confusing as 2 shortish righty relief pitchers named Ramon Ramirez.
I remember in '04
Thinking we could theoretically end up with a total Ramirez left side: Manny, Hanley (sigh) and Aramis to replace Bill Mueller. Or, for that matter, the Miller/Mueller/Millar nightmare from ’05.
All smart organizations "hoard prospects"
Most FA aren’t worth overpaying for their past performance. Only one team can afford to continually overpay for talent: the MFY.
The Sox didn’t lose a prospect for Scutaro. As of right now, they lost their number 1 as compensation for signing Scutaro. That pick may change. The Sox also got a higher first rounder for Wagner.
I doubt Beltre will crush at Fenway. He is a good, not great hitter away from Safeco. Beltre never walks and his O-swing% is terrible. Beltre’s value is mostly tied to his defense.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 11, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I really wish he'd imrpove his patience.
Maybe being around the sox players could (will?) help. Especially last year, was terrible. Which I would think (hope?) was a result of getting frustrated from injury. Hopefully he’ll perk back up to at least around 7% walk rate (which is about where Lowell was last year, and about Beltre’s career number), which still is pretty awful.
I think his bat is going to improve a lot at Fenway. He’s got a great swing for Fenway. I think we can count on him for at least Lowell-like production- plus he’s not nearly as slow and hopefully won’t cause as many GIDPs.
I doubt Beltre will crush at Fenway
This is true, but he does not have to crush to be a much better player than Lowell at this stage. Let’s look at Lowell’s offensive #s. I think we can safely throw out his 2007 outlier year. Why? Well he had a BABIP of 342 (career 294). His batted ball profile was better that year, but I doubt (without actually doing it) that his xBABIP was close to 50 points higher than his average. Otherwise, his wOBAs are similar in 2006, 2008, 2009 to Beltre’s 2006, 2007, 2008 even without any park adjustment. Lowell may be a bit better offensively, but not much if at all. Defensively at this point there is no comparison. By WAR, Beltre had similar value in these years to what ARod had for the Yankees last year. For me it is all about cost and his health (which I am not sure about).
But Beltre
is also at least one of the top 3 fielders. Lowell was good when healthy, but never great.
He’s a dead-pull righty, and boy that gives me hope. His hit tracker and MLB hit charts are encouraging. 4/32 ftw.
is that a response to me?
If so, I agree Beltre is a much better defender. Even in Fenway he will not be a great hitter, but he wont be much worse (if at all) from Lowell.
But
His away numbers point to an .860 hitter circa 2008. I think he can at least handle that playing 1/2 of his games at Fenway instead of Safeco.
No
his away numbers are (bigger healthy sample) 0.818 in the AL, not disimilar to Lowell’s. Indeed, Lowell was 866 away in 06, so we can cherry pick numbers. They are similar offensively, and Fenway will not turn Beltre into a beast. He will have improved numbers, but he will not be a beast.
I'm just saying
his defense is good enough for $8m a year. He should easily eclipse an .800 for the next few seasons, and at Fenway I think he can legit have one or two .860s. That would be a bargain for 4/32 imho.
I agree-
I have said as much. My only concern is he will cost more than that, and that his left shoulder is still an issue…
I can't imagine
that an injured Beltre who hasn’t hit decently in over a year who only played 3/4 of last year will get more than Figgins did, no matter what Boras wants to portray.
Sox need POWER HITTERS
we need hitters that can smack the ball HARD.
Wily Mo Pena is a free agent who can come cheap.
He’s only 27 still.
Go for it Theo. We need HITTING !!!!!!!
Let's get Barry Bonds!
Has he retired yet?
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 11, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Boras wants 5/65 for beltre
while i think its not gonna happen, I highly doubt he will be cheaper than Figgins and thats drivin me mad. Figgins is the superior player and will maybe be even cheaper. If Theo planned to get a 3B all the time, why wasnt he talking to Figgins telling him not to sign so early? I would love Figgins with that 4/36 contract. Lets see where Beltre will end moneywise
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 11, 2009 5:30 PM EST reply actions
Casey Kotchman
what is the story??
why did the Sox make the deal for Adam LaRoche only to deal him for Kotchman?
don’t get me wrong……i don’t think Kotchman (or LaRoche for that matter) is the answer to our corner infield problems.
just wondering what the plan is for him.
is Theo trying to build up a trade package? or are Hermida and Kotchman just insurance policies if the Sox get left empty handed this winter?
i've said this elsewhere but
kotchman is great trade bait. young, major league ready, cheap, great fielder, decent hitter, lots of upside. hermida is also tradeable. a package of those two plus lowrie and a prospect could net something nice i bet. but they could be really good for us also.
Could Kotchman and the new Ramirez be a part of another deal?
All along the major gap in the Red Sox system has been major league ready prospects. Well, combining these two, who are essentially done with AAA at this point, with some of the lower level, higher ceiling guys creates a much more attractive trade offer for teams like San Diego rather them a collection of Single A guys with high ceilings.
I’m not sure if it’s the future but to me it seems this team is suddenly in a much better position to make a big trade.
I highly doubt it
They’re both waiver fodder more than desirable pieces. We’re getting Ramirez because there’s a minor, tiny chance he could be something of slight value at some point. Mainly it was a salary dump.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
I agree on Ramirez
But Kotchman has value doesn’t he? He was supposed to be the Angels’ first baseman for a while. If Theo is indeed plotting some blockbuster move for a Gonzalez or a Cabrera, I think Kotchman will be in it, along with some of our best prospects.
I disagree
I don’t think ramirez is waiver fodder. Look at his numbers apart from 09 when he was injured. There’s a good chance that guy could be a great, patient, power MLB hitter. He looks exactly like one of the thing the Jays are looking for, which stresses me a little. Kotchman, however, doesn’t.
Add Hermida to that group
All three of these guys are still straddling the line between prospect and major leaguer and I think they all still have value to other teams.
.742 career OPS
From a 1b, that isn’t even close to cutting it. Now, hopefully he doesn’t figure it all out the second we dump him like Carlos Pena.
Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway
Alternatives
Let’s say some sucker of a GM swoops in and gives Beltre 4-5 years at $10-12MM per. Then what do we do? One possibility is Miguel Tejada for one year. We could also sign a first baseman like Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche and move Youk to third. If those don’t work out we’re stuck playing either Kotchman at first, or playing VMart there and starting Tek every day (ew).
What is plan B?
Beltre away from Safeco
I think you have to look hard at Beltre’s road numbers in order to evaluate. Safeco is death on hitters and Beltre’s splits since he has been there suggest that he is a much better hitter than his across the board stats dictate. I’m not using his injury/short season of 09 because I don’t think that season dictates his norms.
08 OPS Home/Road – 0,703/0.862
07 OPS Home/Road – 0.745/0.858
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Does Billy Beane’s contract extension signal an optimistic dawn for Oakland fans?
- Ask Alex: Will Alex Avila be an All-Star again?
- Create-a-Caption: Matt Cain’s great pair of golf pants
- Kim Kardashian, Kris Humphries autographed ball being auctioned by Twins
- George Brett lawsuit claims his company falsely advertises ion necklaces’ health benefits
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
