Jason Bay Offered 4-Year, $65M Contract From Mets
by Randy Booth on Dec 10, 2009 6:54 PM EST
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PrintI wrote in a post today that the "mystery team" involved with Jason Bay could be the Mets. Turns out I was right, as the Mets have offered Jason Bay a four-year, $65 million contract:
#mets offered #bay 4 years for about $65 million, give or take. they'd probably have to bump it to 5 yrs to get him.
That's only $5 million more than the Red Sox offered Bay earlier in the offseason. Something tells me Bay will accept a contract similar to this, but maybe not exactly this. I could see Bay signing for somewhere between $65-$70M, but nowhere higher. No team really seems big on Bay at the moment (with that said, it seems like there's not much surrounding Matt Holliday either).
Will the Red Sox counter the Mets' offer? All signs point to: ehh, maybe?
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Indeed, Ben Buchanan
I like this….it reminds me a lot of the Manny “negotiations”. Big Boras expectations, and a lot of owners who are saying whatever to them.
I like to think that Boras is losing his power. I mean, Teixiera coulda sold himself. Guy’s a stud and the Yankees were desperately hungry.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I'm there with you on Boras
I think he’s lost an edge in the economy. He was losing it before that a tad, too, but it’s certainly showing now. We’ll see how his clients do.
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also, i was really happy to see what arte moreno did
by publicly stating his disinterest in holliday. if more owners did this to boras clients he would lose more power than he already has. boras needs the big market teams more than they need his clients.
His playbook is too well known now
He’s used the same ploys every year and teams know now to just wait him out and don’t buy into his fake intel.
Problem is that Boras...
Sets the price, which the either the market can’t bear or many teams can’t bear. What they get in return is a surly overpaid star, who alienates other teammates, because Boras put all these demands in the contract, like hotel suites on the road, private jets, etc. The A-Rod contract that Tom Hicks signed in 2000, is an example… I think many teams are kind of peeved by the opt out clauses that Boras’ s clients have, like the Dodgers were very peeved off with JD Drew opting out to sign with the Sox.
Second,Boras has a problem for Holliday, he needs the Yankees to be in the picture, but that means he is stalling on Damon. Another is that the Dodgers are a complete financial mess, and they are looking at Nick Green as their big pre season pick up, or are not offering any contracts beyond one year. Ditto with the Cubs, so that means the big money teams are the Sox, Phillies, MFY, and the Mets.
The only way for Boras’s extortion racket to work is to have a couple team interested in the player, like with Mark Teixiera sweepstakes last year.
Boras does not set the price. Teams pay the players. Whichever team offers the player the most money gets to sign him. Boras is able to get GM’s to offer more money. But it takes two to tango. And it is the consumer (the team) that is setting the price.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I would think
Bay would take the Sox 4/$60 million (if it’s still on the table) over having to hit at Citi field for a little extra a year.
i think he rejected it
so it wouldnt be on the table anymore.
the Sox knew he was going to test free agency
months beforehand, really, so I have to imagine if they bothered to make an offer beforehand, it still stands. Unless the money from this Lowell/presumably Beltre thing costs too much, in which case Holliday is definitely out too.
well, beltre/lowell will probably cost around 18 million
assuming we sign beltre for 3/27. so six million more dollars being poured into 3B… i’m gonna say that that won’t hold theo back from signing bay/holliday. Really the only problem now with holliday, and why i wouldn’t really expect us to get him is that we would have a completely new left side of the field. blowing up the team is very un-theo like, and so is going way into the FA market, so if beltre is coming to town then we shouldn’t expect holliday. and i’m not happy about this.
it would be
an all-new, all-improved left side of the field. The left side of the field KILLED us last year, it makes sense to shore it up. Besides, if you replace all but one player on the side of the field, they’re still all equally unfamiliar with playing with each other.
Honestly, I’d be perfectly happy with a Bay/Beltre/Scutaro left side, but I’d be happier with a Holliday/Beltre/Scutaro or a Ells/Beltre/Scutaro with Cameron in CF. That last one’s my favorite because it gives us so much flexibility for the future.
i can see theo doing the cameron idea,
moving ells to left. fixes the defense, doesn’t tie up the team financially. doesn’t completely revamp the left side of the field. and cameron’s bat is decent enough that we wouldn’t lose much power from the lineup. sounds much more likely to me than holliday. but don’t worry everyone, we’ll have a couple shiny new free agents in 2010. that much is guaranteed by the lowell trade.
I concur
The Cameron plan makes for an awesome value play that preserves a lot of cash for the 2011 FA market.
Beltre/Scutaro together would make for a very significant overall upgrade over last year – it would keep Youk at 1B and VMart at C, as well.
I know folks would have trouble buying it, because the power numbers from the OF would drop off, but I would view that lineup overall as a net gain over last year, mainly because the defense would be so much better.
Besides park factors, consider cost of living
Living in Boston is ridiculously expensive, but it’s nowhere near New York. $60M in Boston is worth more than $65M in New York.
35% of that goes to the US Fed gov't. (up to 39% in 2010 when the tax rate for top tier income group reverts to pre 2001 levels
MLB players also have to pay certain taxes for each city on the road, (I forgot all the details, but it varies from each state and Ontario province) Combine with property taxes, State income tax, (excluding Fla, Wa and Texas that have no state income tax) the ante reaches probably 45%-50%.
There is a reason why so many baseball players live in Florida as their primary residence, beside homestead exemption, etc.
They should also not be living paycheck to paycheck, but investing 5%-10% in a 401k/MLBPA pension plan, 5%-10% goes to the agent for negotiating the contract, (I forgot the agent’s percentage cut)
So even though they live a very cushy life while playing, they should be saving a buttload for the years after they are no longer playing. There have been studies showing how professional athletes like lottery winners end up bankrupt after they hit paydirt, because they don’t control their spending after they retire, they think the good times will continue to roll, and they don’t invest their money properly.
Any top tier player should take their paycheck put it in the bank, and just live off the interest from investment/money market account/etc. etc.
by superferret on Dec 10, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
No state income tax in NH or WY either (two states that I have had the privilege of calling home)
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
All the more reason why you'd want to play for Boston
$15M/year in Boston is roughly equivalent to $25M/year in New York. Now, I don’t put it past Omar Minaya to offer Jason Bay $25M/year, but that would really, really dumb of him.
Sort of.
$50 grand in Boston is about $60 grand in NYC, at least for attorneys. But once you get over the 7 to 8 figure threshold, the difference is trivial. In either town, they’re going to have a luxury apartment, and eat really well, but the difference is maybe a couple hundred thousand per year.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Awwww
No team with an open 1st round pick wants him?
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 10, 2009 7:31 PM EST reply actions
Whenever Minaya is involved you know its a bad idea to pay more for that player ;)
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 10, 2009 8:10 PM EST reply actions
True
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
The only proposal I can see the Sox offering is
4 year/$65 million with a fifth year team option at $15 mil. Given that the Sox just moved Lowell after 2 years of a 3 year deal, The Sox are more into offering money than more guaranteed years.
I think it is looks like Bay is not going to be a Red Sox in 2010. I think if the Mariners offer 4/$65 mil he would take it.
Bay also should thank the Sox, because his value went way up playing for the Sox. If he was putting up these numbers for the Pirates, he wouldn’t be getting as near as much.
as much as the media seems to want Bay to be a Mariner
The Mariner’s don’t seem to, so that might be a little chink in them getting him.
I WOULD like their draft pick though…
I think the Mariners want pitching
more than Bay. I think they are thinking of pleasing two of their heavyweights, King Felix and Ichiro, and Bay’s fielding skills would piss off Ichiro to no end.
It just doesn’t look like Bay is going to be a Sox for 2010. There is really no positive feedback from Bay’s camp for anything Sox.
Bay just seemed to be in limbo until the Mets stepped in
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 10, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
You can always count on Omar to do something stupid
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
My question is...
How much longer will he be in position to make stupid decisions. I don’t see him and Manuel lasting longer than mid season or if the Mets have a long losing streak.
I don't think 4 years at $16m per is stupid.
Especially for the Mets – take a look at their 2009 offense. He’d fill a huge whole for them, and he’s a few million more than Delgado’s 94 at bats cost last season.
Ya they still need 3 more starters, 2 more outfielders, a catcher, etc., but Bay makes sense.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
What do you think our ceiling is?
I could see us going 4/72. 4/60 was our opener. An extra $3 million per to retain our second best bat plus and keep him out of the hands of the Angels or MFYs.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
do you really think he's worth $18 million a year?
as he ages? He’s not going to be improving over those years. I feel like what we offered originally was pretty much our offer. That seems to be Theo’s style for the most part.
He's a mountain dude from Trail, British Columbia.
And he’s only 31. I don’t expect his bat to fall off a cliff in the next 4 years, and after this year he’ll probably be able to pick up significant ABs at DH. (if I’m doing my math right, his bat alone was worth @ $25m on fangraphs last year)
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Very few players have bats worth that much
Also, fangraphs doesn’t put a dollar amont on offense and defense. WAR has positional adjustments. In his prime, David Ortiz was worth $20+ million. According to fangraphs, he was worth $27.4 million in 2007. As a pure DH, Ortiz is one of the few players paid for just his bat.
Fangraphs placed Bay’s value at $15.7 million this year, up from $13.2 million last year. He will be 32-years old next year. The odds are pretty good that he’ll lose value. Even if Bay becomes the DH in a year or two, his bat alone won’t even be worth $15 million. He isn’t as good a hitter as Ortiz in his prime.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Here's my math. It's probably fuzzy.
According to Fangraphs, he had a 33.7 “value” batting, and negative 13 fielding, giving him @ 21 overall, which equates to $15m. Thus each point of “value” equals about 5/7ths of a million. 5/7 times 33.7 = $24m.
Pretty fuzzy I know. I’m a lawyer, not an accountant.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Not quite.
You are not including the replacement and positional adjustments.
Also, to say that “his bat alone was worth $XM” is misleading. Of course his bat was valuable, but all other parts of his game bring his value down. He is a poor defender, so while his bat may be worth $25M, overall he was worth $13.6M.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Overall he was worth 15.7.
13.6 is next year’s projection.
And that is what I was saying, that his bat is worth much more than is overall value, so it would be advantageous to have him DH a significant amount of time.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
With the positional adjustment
Bay would be worth less as a DH, the way fangraphs figures value.
Papi in his prme was a much better hitter than Bay right now. I can’t see the Sox valuing Bay just for his bat the same way they valued Papi when they signed him for $12.5 million a year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 11, 2009 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
in any case
it’s fangraphs money. That’s like saying "Drew is worth $10,000,000 monopoly dollars AND 2 houses on park place)
Yes and yes.
Bay is no Papi, and Fangraphs money is goofy.
Positionally, DH is – 17.5 of value. LF is -7.5. Bay’s fielding value in LF was -13. Meaning factoring in crappy defense and weak position, he would have been more valuable as a DH. -17.5 > -20.5.
(Or, if you think the UZR ratings are bunk, then he is underrated by fangraphs “value”, and actually worth more than the $15.7 million-fangraph dollars they list)
Manny ain't the only bad man.
No.
If the Sox are going to break the bank, a wiser risk management move is to go for Holliday..
by superferret on Dec 10, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I'm misreading the market
But I think someone gives Holliday $100.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Bay makes sense
but they’re in a tough situation where they have no real farm to speak of and a lot of holes to fill. Not sure it would make sense for them to spend that much on any one hole. Probably their best idea would be to try to buy low on people coming off bad years and moderately priced FAs and try to get them to work out.
Which means that Omar will most certainly sign Bay for 5/80
I think he's worth it to the Mets.
Even with his Fenway-skewed UZR (seriously, when are they going to adjust UZR to account for wall balls) he was “worth” about $16m last year. He’ll make that lineup a hell of a lot deeper and put some asses in the seats.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
his offensive value will plummet
at Citi Field though. He’s never been good at defense, so though I’m sure his UZR will improve, it’s not like he’s going to become a statistically great defender.
His UZR won't improve much
It wasn’t good in Pittsburgh.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
And correct me if I'm wrong, but don't players tend to reach their defensive peaks in their 20s?
Even if his bat were miraculously to stay the same over the next four or five years, his defense is going to get worse. If he was worth $15M this year, he might be worth $10M in four years.
Yup
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 11, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
It wasn't a straight up 4/$60 mil or a 4 year/$52 million
It had many deferred payments, like many of the Dodgers’ deal, it was more of a $12.5 million annually with the last year up to 16-18 million. I think Nomah and Arn Tellum wanted a carbon copy of the Jeter’s $20 million contract with the MFY, which was silly, besides Nomah was pissed off to no ends about the Sox’s pursuit of A-Rod in 2003. Arn Tellum and Nomah rejected the contract out of hand immediately.. I also think it was more of a 4 year/$52 million deal
I think Nomah signed a 2 year/ $8 mil contract with the Dodgers, in 2006. It just shows that how artificial are these contract values.
by superferret on Dec 10, 2009 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
after reading this..
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=mnookin/060712
Garciaparra was being a complete and total jerk. He seemed more neurotic about his signing bonus than his contract. He blew it, and he and Tellum way overplayed their hand, given they were getting $8 million from the Cubs in his completely wasted year in 2005. Basically Garciaparra wanted $68 million for a 4 year deal..
by superferret on Dec 10, 2009 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
This made me laugh
“Bay rejected that four-year, $60 million deal and countered with one averaging $16 million to $18 million over six years, according to a source with knowledge of those talks”
Yeah, good luck buddy.
Jason Bay, et als.....
Yes , JBay should sign with the BoSox for 4 yrs/68mil., then pursue DeRosa @ Third instead of Beltre, (I like his #‘s better !). If they can’t, go after Zimmerman AND Nick Johnson from the Nationals. Don’t be afraid to give up ‘Bucko’, ‘Bonzo’, ‘Max Ramirez’, ‘KotchRot’, maybe even a coupla’ minor leaguers, ‘Wake’, (he’s gettin’ old !), possibly J.D. Drew, (for something good, not a ‘skud’), then you would have enough salary to go after a ‘Doc’, or another pitcher, maybe like Cliff Lee in a trade.
Sound Good ?
Jerry M.
Jerry M.
no it doesn't
Bay is not worth $17 mil from the Sox a year. Not in any way. His performance this year wasn’t, and he’s likely to decline.
Derosa is older, has become quite a bad defender, and his bat is declining. Beltre uninjured should perform better offensively (and about 20+ runs better defensively) than Derosa. I don’t understand what the big deal is about that guy…
There is no chance in hell Zimmerman gets traded, he is the best player on a terrible team with a high payroll. They have no reason to trade him.
Nick Johnson got traded midseason to Florida. Now he is a free agent. Hence, trading with the Nationals for him is unlikely. Also, if we got him and a 3rd baseman, would Youk be sitting on the bench? Or would we create a 5th infield position?
Wake is untradeable. He is extremely cheap and incredibly valuable to us until he breaks down. He is also the face of the Red Sox- he’s been there forever and will finish his career in Boston. Why would you trade Drew? He’s one of our most solid players. Who would replace him? Is that where Nick Johnson is going?
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