Winter Meetings, Day Three Recap: Mike Lowell Making Things Fun
by Randy Booth on Dec 10, 2009 6:00 AM EST
in News
32 comments
Another day at the winter meetings means another day with no news.
Some news, actually, but nothing significant. No signings, no trades. Not even a great quote here or there. Nevertheless, here are the rumors floating around the Interwebs.
Mike Lowell might be traded.
See what happens when I try to write up posts in advance?
RED SOX RUMBLINGS:
Twitter / Ken Rosenthal: Prelim agreement on Lowell ...
Yup, so that's the big news. If it goes through (and, as of this writing, it's still "preliminary"), this will be an interesting shakeup for the Sox. Where does Max Ramirez fit? He's catcher with a huge bat, one that fits perfectly in the Sox system (hits for power and gets on base at an amazing clip). But can he stay behind the plate? Will he be in the bigs in 2010? Either the Sox will season him a little in AAA, or he could DH a little bit, play a little catcher. Maybe he'll be the backup catcher and the Sox will dump Jason Varitek. That's a possibility, too.
But, as of now, a deal is not official. Let's remember that. So who will play third? Well, thanks for asking!...
BostonHerald.com - Sources: Red Sox interest in Beltre significant
It could be that guy, but who really knows? Adrian Beltre would probably hit quite well in Fenway Park. And he is perhaps the best defensive third baseman in baseball, so this is a nice fit. The only thing that doesn't fit is the contract. Word is his agent, Scott Boras, wants a similar contract to the one he last signed. That would be in the $12 million per year range. That may be a little pricey. But the Sox have a decent history with Boras, so that could come down.
Bradley one (explosive) possibility - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog
I hope we can just laugh at this now. Everyone was when the rumor happened, anyway.
BostonHerald.com - Source: 3 other teams besides Red Sox in on Bay
Angels, Mariners and ... Mets? They're rumored to be in on Matt Holliday, but the other rumor is that they have no money to spend. Funny how that works. I'm sure there are a handful of other teams that Bay could land with, but nothing seems too obvious.
NON-RED SOX RUMBLINGS:
Rangers Trade Pitcher Kevin Millwood To Orioles - SB Nation
An interesting move, but it makes a lot of sense considering...
Report: Rich Harden To Sign With Texas Rangers, Pending Physical - SB Nation
...they wanted to make room for this guy. Good deal for the Rangers when it's all said and done. Harden has a lot of potential and even Chris Ray could work his way back to being a solid reliever with closer potential. I have a feeling it'll be hard to watch the Sox face Harden this year.
Brewers Staying Busy During Winter Meetings, Sign Pitchers Randy Wolf, LaTroy Hawkins - SB Nation
Two nice pickups for the Brew Crew. Seems to me that they want to compete this year. Good for them. I hear C.C. Sabathia is on the market. Nah, not true. Sorry to get your hopes up, Brewers.
Rays close to trading for Rafael Soriano
Another bullpen arm to compete with in the AL East. Soriano pitched well for the Braves, but how will that translate to the American League?
Fast Eddy keeps going: Astros ink Brandon Lyon - The Crawfish Boxes
A former Sox going to a team managed by a former Sox. Poetry in motion, for sure. The deal is worth $15 million over three years. This isn't a bad deal for a bonafide closer, but the job certainly isn't his at this point. Maybe he could win it in the spring.
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Some of us have known
for a while by just watching the on field performances of the last year that the Sox needed a big rehab, and now it begins. Good! I am glad Randy anyway has joined the reality crowd, but maybe a few others will leave the rose colored glasses crowd to see reality.
Anyway, I doubt the partially rebuilt Sox can compete too well in one year, especially with the Yankees buying up all the best talent, but I am glad the process has begun!
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ha ha ha...
…well met.
You’re wrong…but still.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I like the potential of Max Ramirez
But trading Lowell and giving up $9m @ 3b, well can make 3B an expensive position depending on what they do.
They could move Max to first and see how he does there, with Youk going to 3rd. Doesn’t make sense to move V-mart out of C.
They could sign Beltre or trade for Cabrera @ 3rd. From what Boras is holding out for with Beltre – I’d rather move on Cabrera and his $14m then go for Beltre for $12m and picks.
I’m not sure if Cabrera would be motivated by or hate the passion of Boston, but part of me thinks he’s got to be tired of losing.
Ellsbury could be attractive to the Tigers now as part of that deal – and while I like Jake, CF is a position full of talent right now, and he’s not at the elite end of it.
Cabrera, provided he could be motivated correctly, would be a bonafide middle order bat for 3-4 years at least. Eventually replacing Papi @ DH. OOOH exciting!
cabrera?
He’s not $14 million. He’s between $20-$22 million for the years up to 2015. Big difference. You mean Miguel Cabrera right? He’s not a 3rd baseman, that would involve youk going to 3rd.
Defensively, youk/beltre corners destroys pretty much any other possible combination. Cabrera/Youk would probably be better in all- and destroy offensively, but would be pretty expensive in dollars for a long time and in prospects.
Right Miggy " I hit my Wife and I'm fat"
With a fat contract. Sorry I went of what he made this year, didn’t look to the escalation of the deal in future years.
Offensively Youk/Beltre is below average for corner infielders though, so if they are going for Beltre, then I would like to see them go all out for Holliday as well.
And if that’s the case, it’s actually better then Cabrera still, because you are giving up draft picks, not actual talent, yet. Not idea to give up picks, but not the worst thing either
offensively
Beltre looks much better when you get him out of Safeco.
Career .826 OPS on road vs .727 OPS at Safeco & Chevez Ravine (Dodger stadium). Or in tOPS, the numbers are 112 vs 88.
Pretty huge gap and that’s across 3569 road PAs and 3308 home PAs, so its very real.
Basically, his offensive stats have has really taken it on the chin by playing in those two parks.
He should be a solid bet to put up mid-20s HRs and around 40 doubles in Fenway, which would not be ‘below average’.
But we got smushed
In October, and looked shaky for an awful large part of the season. Beltre is a surefire improvement over Lowell in every way, even if this is a rebuilding year.
Huh?
you are using a 3 game sample size to judge the season? Thats not a good idea. There is no reason that this should or will be a “rebuilding” year. Sure, we should try to improve and get younger, every year. Next year we will be better and younger than the 95 win 09 team.
Look
Even before the 3 game series, which is obv a very small sample size, we were not playing well against any of the good teams. We had the massive regression to the mean against the Yankees, and had to have some “assistance” from an ump to take down the Angels at Fenway. This wasn’t a team built for a deep run into the playoffs.
We will eventually have to face the Yankees if we want to win a WS, do you think this club can take them down?
http://www.virtualfenway.com
sure
we swept the yankees first half of the year. Just sayin. Anything can happen. I would be amazed if half the yankees players performed half as well as they did this year next year.
important point
the red sox were the victims of some small-number statistical events that went the other way – i.e. ‘bad luck’.
The team offense collectively slumped during the mid-season losing streak against the Rays and the Yankees that first put them in a whole. People forget how close most of those games were – if they get just a single clutch hit in that first extra inning game that wasted a great Lester pitching performance and totally taxed the bullpen – that totally changes the way the rest of those two series plays out.
Just a tiny handful of hits – made by opponents and NOT made by the Red Sox – made for huge swings in the standings this season.
Unfortunately , that’s baseball. But it reinforces wolf9309’s point that the gap between the Red Sox and the Yankees wasn’t THAT huge.
Statistically, our offense overall was fine and competitive – overall not a real drop off from the last couple of years. But it slumped badly as a team in a couple of very noticeable stretches and that is what a lot of folks remember.
Our pitching was overall very good – especially once Smolz was out of the picture and after Buchholz and Dice-K came back strong.
Our defense was definitely a problem in a few spots and that hurt us compared to 2008.
Yankees
Last year the Yankees had only a 35 total run differential advantage over the Red Sox-basically equating to an estimate of 3 wins. To do that they had career performances out of a huge number of aging players, and expected but excellent performances out of the younger guys. Damon, Jeter, Matsui, Rivera and Posada played far beyond their years. They had no major injury save missing ARod for 5 weeks and Wang. Even last year if you ran that season many times it is not close to a lock that they are standing at the end.
Actually
The MFY’s run differential was only +26 better than the Sox last year. The MFY scored 43 more runs than Boston and allowed 17 more runs.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
And ... +1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
i have no idea how posada had the year he had
isn’t he 38? catchers don’t have that kind of year at his age. makes me wonder about what supplements he’s taking. the yankees will be clearly worse next year when these guys come down to earth.
Sign Adrian Beltre
I’ve changed my mind, and actually think we should sign Beltre to a 2-3 year contract, maybe even for 4. If we can get him for anything under what Figgins received, I think he could be a bargain. He has great away numbers, and is a dead-pull righty. He’s consistently listed as the best 3b by the fielding bible, near the top by UZR, and has been very reliable.
If we can parlay his crappy ’09 into an undervalued contract (even up to 4/32), we should go for it. With Ortiz going off the books next season, we can still acquire a power-hitting 1B for the DH spot.
Do you really think a Scott Boras client will sign an "undervalued contract?"
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
I don't see him getting a bigger contract than Figgins
Who else is looking for his service?
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 10, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
The Figgins contract was dumb
I’m not sure I’d spend 4/36 on Beltre. But that will probably be the minimum to sign him from Boras’s point of view, and the maximum from the Sox’ standpoint. The fact is, once Lowell is gone, the Sox don’t have a lot of leverage. They’ll either have to sign Beltre or play a combination of Lowrie/Kotchman to make up Mikey’s offense.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
If we don't get Beltre
Nick Johnson? Johnson’s a part time 1b onaconna being injured all the time, and so is Victor.
http://www.virtualfenway.com
I would hope
that we wouldn’t pull the trigger on the Texas deal unless we had something concrete- like Boras had agreed to an offer we (nonpublicly) made to him. I think Beltre is a better option than Lowell at third, but I wouldn’t want to see Youk as opening day 3rd baseman unless we managed to get Gonzalez or someone of that caliber (highly unlikely!)
If we were stuck in a hole, I’d be fine with Johnson for a 1- or maybe 2-year deal for not too much money. Really last decent choice for me though, after keeping the corners we had last year.
Let's see if Lowell gets traded first
Getting another 1B is one way to go. But I don’t really like Youk at 3B. I don’t want VMart at 1B because I feel it’s best to limit Tek’s playing time.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 10, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Reply fail?
To zobrist; verb – to overlook the superiority of a person or object based on misleading sensory or conversational factors. e.g. "My teacher totally zobristed me on that paper – I’d included all the points he asked for but I didn’t drone on about Grover Cleveland enough. He’s totally biased towards Cleveland. What’s worse is that Danny Dukowski got an A, and his prose style is terrible. He’s a total Victorino." deadspy3 - Amazin' Avenue
by bloodysock04 on Dec 10, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
You mentioned coffee
Now I need it.
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by Randy Booth on Dec 10, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Dunkies put
Pumpkin coffee back into hibernation until next Fall. I’m still trying to put my life back together.
http://www.virtualfenway.com
I can't find it so maybe I made it up in my head
But I’m sure I saw he was only looking for a 3-year deal. I wouldn’t pay 4/36 for him, but 3/27, sure!
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