Hermida for Pierre? [Promoted FanPost]

by Bloggy on Nov 7, 2009 11:38 PM EST Comment 34 comments

So, let me throw a small hypothetical out to ya.

I'm not the stat research guy around here. As it turns out, YOU are my stats research. So, this may be the stupidest idea ever, I dunno.

But, how do we all feel about a potential Hermida for Juan Pierre trade with the Dodgers? I know that Pierre hits left, so he wouldn't be a replacement for Bay's right handed power bat for the Monster, but still.

If Bay & Holliday get to the point where they aren't worth the money/years, maybe Juan Pierre at 2 years/$18.5mil isn't such a bad idea for left field. After that, Reddick is ready for left?

So the deal is, Hermida for Pierre straight up. We get a quality starter at a much reduced wage, the Dodgers get rid of a $9mil bench player and now have money they can use elsewhere.

Discuss.

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interesting idea. he strikes me as a strong leadoff hitter. not sure theo would do that, it would be very good for the image to retain Bay. But if Bay decides to go else where and Holliday to the New York Steroids, then Theo would go with Pierre and get a marquis hitter for another position. Adrian Gonzo + Hanley? would take a lot of prospects!!!

"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."-Manny Ramirez

by revigik on Nov 7, 2009 11:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, but I'm going with worst idea ever.

Juan Pierre has a career wOBA of .325. That is almost exactly the same as Julio Lugo, except he would be playing an offensive position. Pierre also played below average defense two of the last three years (total 3 year UZR is right at 0). And he is horribly overpaid. Hermida is a better hitter , has upside and is paid much, much less.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 8, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

"Worst idea ever" may be strong.

My research is VERY limited, but from what I’ve seen he gets a lot of hits, doesn’t strike out a lot, and plays well when he’s given the time to perform. He played very well during Manny’s suspension on an every day basis.

Again, not saying it’s the right move, but HARDLY the worst idea ever. Or even close.

Still, very possibly a bad idea.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Nov 8, 2009 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I probably overstated it.

And yes he did play well when Manny was down. But let’s look at his whole career instead of 50 games. He got on base pretty well this season (.365), but the 4 years before that his OBP’s were right at .330. Considering he has no power, that just is not enough offensive production. Again, he is an OF version of Julio Lugo offensively.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 8, 2009 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was about to say...

Isn’t his career OBP a little low? Good tough player with speed but I’m not sure where he would fit in our lineup.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Nov 8, 2009 4:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, you overstated it, but not by much

We already have a better version of Pierre in Ellsbury, and he could still improve.

by RSNexile on Nov 8, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And Ellsbury

is much cheaper.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 8, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So, are you guys saying you'd rather have Hermida starting than Pierre?

If yes, based on salary or based on talent?

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Nov 8, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Juan Pierre is a common enemy in the sabermetric community.

by Gnick on Nov 8, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say he's more of a punchline.

FJM pilloried him for routinely leading his league in outs (low obp + high caught stealing percentage = lots and lots of outs).

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 8, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As you know...

…I am HARDLY a part of the sabermetric community. ;)

Is your YES based on talent? Do you think we’d win more games with Hermida on the field, or that 9 large is simply money that could be better spent elsewhere?

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Nov 8, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

we would win more games with Bay in left field

by Dustin's #1 Fan on Nov 8, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously.

But if he became more money/years than he’s worth, you have to look at other options. Which is what this is.

Personally, my preferences are:

1. Holliday
2. Bay
3. Other stuff

I’m willing to look at Pierre as other stuff, unless shown that is is full on stupid.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Nov 8, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For my definition of showing it is "full on stupid"...

…see Amanda’s comment below. :)

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Nov 8, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would rather have Hermida start

than have Pierre come anywhere near our lineup…like someone said, why put a Julio Lugo type hitter back in the lineup after we so vehemently called for that p.o.s. to leave

Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.

by DougieWentDeep on Nov 9, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we go into the season with Hermida as our only LF'er, Theo will have failed in the off-season.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 8, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not convinced of that

I think you judge each off season move individually then how all the moves fit together. Completely hypothetical but would the off season be a failure if Hermida became the starting LF under the following circumstances?

Paired with a good RH bat.
Trade for Stephen Drew and Adrian Gonzalez.
Sign John Lackey and Chapman.

By no means am I saying these things will happen but I want to illustrate how the team could be improved even with Hermida in LF.

by mg050369 on Nov 9, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

THat would be a success as long as we held onto Bucholz and some other prospects.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 9, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And if the two pitchers are signed way below asking price.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 13, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not the worst idea ever but close

I have no idea why they would want to take on a bad contract in favor of a cost controlled outfielder who has the potential of some upside. I’m also unsure why you would replace a middle of the lineup bat with a leadoff hitter. Last, I don’t know why you would put a guy who’s best asset is speed in front of the Monster (a.k.a. deep shortstop). Pierre makes more sense if you need a CF, not a LF.

I vote for Bay/Holliday (the better contract) with Hermida, a potential non-tender candidate or a viable trade option as plans B, C and D.

by mg050369 on Nov 9, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather the Sox acquire a good defensive CF like Cameron and move Ells to LF

I’m just not a big Pierre fan.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 8, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Joining the NL

We’d have some good baserunners, but not much pop out there. We’d be playing small ball. Juan is way overpriced. I’d rather have Hermida out there.

"simul justus et peccator"

by cavman on Nov 8, 2009 4:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Crisp would be cheaper

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
Jason Bay is not WERTH it

by gizmosandy on Nov 8, 2009 4:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Promoted to Glory.

Holy crap. I’m on the main page. CRAZY.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

by Bloggy on Nov 8, 2009 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have to stay away for a week, and look what happens. ;)

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 13, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You don't want Pierre.

I can’t even begin to tell you how much you don’t want Juan Pierre.

He did not play well during Manny’s suspension. He played well for less than half of it, then he was terrible for the remainder of it. But I’ll split it right in half for you:

First 25 games: .385/.451/.523, 42 hits, 9 doubles, 3 triples, 18 RBI, 11 walks, 12 Ks
Last 25 games: .248/.307/.295, 26 hits, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 3 RBI, 5 walks, 6 Ks

Considering his career batting line is .301/.348/.372, that second half is just completely inexcusably terrible. His performance during Manny’s suspension is NOT a reason to trade for him, NOT a reason to applaud him. Indeed, when he was doing well, it was a great relief, but all the talk about him being the team MVP came from reporters who like him because he’s not Manny, and not any actual insight into his performance.

You’re right that he doesn’t strike out much. That will happen when you are not a power hitter. And by “not a power hitter” I mean that he’s never hit more than 3 home runs in a season. He managed that twice, and it’s not like he didn’t have enough playing time — 6 home runs in a total of 1,498 plate appearances in those two seasons. His lack of power makes him a terrible left field candidate.

He also has a terrible arm (“Damonesque” about covers it, and I’m not trying to be funny — I’m genuinely serious that his arm is that bad), and yes, he’s fast, but speed doesn’t mean much when you’re not getting on base.

If the Red Sox needed a fourth outfielder, this would be great, but you’re talking about Pierre as a possible replacement for Bay, and there’s no way that would work out at all, not with no power and no patience. Hermida has some upside, and Pierre just is what he is, and what he is is not what the Red Sox need.

by Amanda Cournoyer on Nov 8, 2009 5:14 PM EST reply actions 5 recs

+1

That about covers it.

by BigRedDog42 on Nov 8, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

++1

I’ll never forget watching Pierre play in an early-season LAD-PIT game, wherein he stopped three feet short of a shallow, but sky-high pop-up, half extended his hand, and then watched the ball audibly thud into the center-field turf at Chavez Ravine. Had that happened in Boston, they would need to trade him for his own personal safety.

DO. NOT. WANT.

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Nov 9, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

EXCELLENT first comment.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 13, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Philly decline Feliz's option.

Wonder if they would want Lowell ?

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
Jason Bay is not WERTH it

by gizmosandy on Nov 8, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Beltre comes too expensive, it's possible

Wasn’t Philly the one who almost signed him after 2007?

I still don’t see it as likely, Lowell’s probably low on their list of players wanted for 3B for them

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 8, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pierre=Ellsbury-8 homers

I’ve done the study before and Pierre is a lighter hitting version of Ellsbury. He is better defensively, but at his salary and age why bother. It’s bad enough watching Ellsbury struggle to a .350 OBP.

by TroyPatterson on Nov 8, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How about for a similar amount of contract money

trade for Milton Bradley, who the Cubs are trying to dump? I project him at .275/.389/.449 for 2010, which seems like a better fit. He’s also a switch-hitter and significantly better from the right side. That means he could play right when Drew goes down, or against tough lefties, etc.

I worry about the power from a lineup featuring Ellsbury, Pierre, Lowrie. We’re losing 30HR in the person of Jason Bay and we’re gonna stick in Juan Pierre? Good defense and OBP, but still… Where’s the pop gonna come from?

Red Sox Talk redsox.wordpress.com fantasyscope.wordpress.com

by redsoxtalk on Nov 12, 2009 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs