Signing Type-A's Matt Holliday And Marco Scutaro Actually Makes Sense
by Randy Booth on Nov 30, 2009 2:20 PM EST
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PrintWho knows how it really works, but if the Red Sox sign both Matt Holliday and Marco Scutaro, the Sox could actually end up with better draft picks in the end:
Under baseball's warped draft-pick compensation system, a high-revenue team that exchanges one Type A free agent for another actually nets an extra pick — a supplemental choice between the first and second rounds.
Oh, but this gets better.
If the Sox lose Bay and sign both Holliday and free-agent shortstop Marco Scutaro, they not only will receive the same number of selections, but also might end up in better draft positions.
Signing Holliday would cost the Sox their first-round pick. Signing Scutaro, a lower-ranking free agent, would cost them their second-round selection.
But, if the Sox lose Bay after offering him salary arbitration, they will gain two picks — a likely first-rounder and the sandwich pick.
I don't think Scutaro is much of a player, but if the Sox go this route and actually bring in better draft picks, that is pretty great. I'll stand by my original thoughts and say I want Jason Bay back in Boston, but this isn't a bad way to end up either. Personally, I'd take Bay and a shortstop like, say, Stephen Drew in a trade than signing Holliday and Scutaro. But that's just me. We'll see what Theo decides.
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That's one of the ways that the compensation system aids big market teams
MLB should close that loophole by making sure teams losing Type-A FAs get a #1 pick, either this year or the following years. If a team doesn’t have a #1 pick, they shouldn’t be allowed to sign a Type-A FA. This would keep teams from loading up on players by throwing their money around.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
How would a team not have a first round pick?
Or you mean they basically should not be allowed to sign two Type A free agents in the same year?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Yes.
Unless, of course, they lose a Type-A and gain a pick. They
If a team signs two Type-As, they lose one pick that year and one pick the next season.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
One caution against Holliday
He obviously raked once moving to the NL, but if you look closely at his stats you’ll see that he only played 14 of his 55 games in STL against winning teams. I feel like his STL numbers might be boosted quite a bit by playing against inferior competition.
by Gnick on Nov 30, 2009 3:09 PM EST reply actions
He OPS+ed 120
in Oakland despite a truly awful April which really brought the number down. That, plus his road splits in 07/08 (0.860 and 0.892 OPS on the road despite playing in a division where there are 2 of the worst hitter’s parks in all of baseball) and his time in St. Louis should really end the talk of the Coors issue. He really is not Dante Bichette.
I'm not saying he's simply a product of Coors
There’s no doubt he’s talented. I’m just pointing out that his success in Saint Louis this year was against pretty poor competition. I have no doubt he’ll put up solid numbers, I just wonder whether or not a projected 850-900 OPS is worth almost $20 million a season.
by Gnick on Nov 30, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
A projected 900 OPS
(remember we are talking Fenway) + non-negative defense is worth a hell of a lot more than Bay.
Agreed in theory
But you can’t really project his defense as guaranteed to being non-negative. UZR fluctuates incredibly from year to year and LF at Fenway is known to negatively impact UZR. And a 850-900 OPS most likely would not be better than Bay’s offensive numbers next year.
by Gnick on Dec 1, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Defense
one interesting thing about fielding metrics is that despite the fluctuations in UZR, Bay and Holliday are 2 players that have very little in the way of fluctuations (and certainly not more than in their usually stable hitting statistics). This is all the more true when you rank them against other LFs via an average over all advanced fielding metrics. Bay is aways among the worst, even when he was in Pittsburgh, while Holliday is always better than average. This is stable year to year across all metrics and the 5 different home parks these two players have played in. So even if we adjust Holliday for Fenway both hitting and fielding he will be a much higher WAR player than Bay (a guess).
I think the important thing to keep in mind is not a system to gain points by WAR, but who is actually the better defender. I think the park-neutral answer that seems to be true from various different metrics is that Holliday is a significantly better defender than Bay. This matters a lot, and of course the Sox will play half their games away from Fenway.
We're talking true value here, not WAR.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
but
If we signed Holliday and not scutaro, then we get the sandwich pick from Bay, AND we don’t lose our second round to Scutaro. Kinda faulty logic, Scutaro still costs us a draft pick, just not a first rounder.
But it's like this:
Re-sign Bay and get Scutaro: We have only our Second Round Pick
Sign Holliday and Scutaro, Bay signs with Angels (hypothesis): We have a first rounder from the Angels, a supplemental first rounder from MLB (between First and Second Rounds) and we lose the second round pick for Scutaro.
So all together, we end up with an a decent first round pick from the Angels, a supplemental pick, and ready to field a team.
This doesn’t even account for the Wagner (Type-A) or the Saito (Type-B I think??) picks we may acquire…..
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Nov 30, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but
sign holliday and someone besides scutaro, we would get the first rounder from the angels, the supplemental round pick, and wouldn’t lose our second round pick. i’m just saying that scutaro isn’t worth it, if it’s affordable I’d much rather have Holiday than Bay.
I believe Saito is type A but we aren’t allowed to offer him arbitration- yeah checking with Cot’s, his contract states that if we don’t pick up his option we have to release him, so we can’t offer arb. Clever clause.
Indeed. Saito if he wasn't so damn old would be the hottest reliever on the market this winter.
He has a damn good agent. Its not always about the money…(cough) Boras! (cough)
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Nov 30, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
Totally.
Sign Holliday, and we’ll likely get a better first rounder (unless Bay goes to Yanks) plus a sandwich.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
I'd make that deal
At this point, I’m convinced we’d be better off with Holliday and the MFY first rounder plus a sandwich.
Of course, that assumes a reasonable contract. I’m not convinced Holliday is interested in a reasonable contract. Then again, neither is Bay.
He might not be interested in a reasonable contract, but if every team out there is reasonable then he will have to take a reasonable contract.
I think Holliday is more valuable to the Sox than any other team, so I actually expect him to end up with us, unless the Yanks get in on it.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Boras will screw us
I certainly believe Boras will make it very hard for us to get Holliday for a reasonable price. If he feels the Red Sox prefer Holliday over Bay he is gonna wait till Bay signed with someone and boom he has all the leverage in the world to drive the price up, especially if the yankees join the game.
by German Red Sox Fan on Nov 30, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
If the Yanks join, then yes, I doubt we will get him. But many of our Yankee friends (well, the only one being Casanova), think the Yanks will not be breaking the bank this offseason. If that is the case, then I do not know of any teams that will be paying more than us.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
If the Red Sox want Holliday Boras will wait until Bay signs, I’m pretty sure of it. The moment Bay is gone and Holliday isnt signed the Yankees will join, if only to drive the price for the Sox up. They will drive the price so high that signing Bay in the first place would have been better. If the others are smart, I almost cant us see winning here. Boras is just way to clever to let Holliday sign before Bay signs especially when the Red Sox show much interest in Holliday, because he knows the worst case scenario for the Sox is to end up with neither one, especially if the Yankees end up with Holliday. To win this the Sox have to have a backup plan allready in place, signing Mike Cameron might work, so they can move away when Holliday becomes to expensive and play Cameron in CF and Ells in LF.
by German Red Sox Fan on Nov 30, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Except if the Yanks are really only trying to raise the price, they would have to call our bluff if we said no to an extreme contract.
I don’t think they’d be willing to do that and give up their 1st round pick again – which means Boras would be stuck with us again, and no other team would allow him to push up the price the same way.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
When the Yanks did this last year it was an outrage.
Now it’s a good idea. You cheeky bastards.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 30, 2009 5:55 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Scutaro is a better pitcher than Burnett
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
but not as good as Green
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Scutaro = Sabathia.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 30, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Brewers got screwed.
And you know that the draft is an IV line directly into that team’s arm keeping them alive.
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Nov 30, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Jays got it worse.
a 3rd rounder for Burnett.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Nov 30, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Well-
it is always an outrage. When Travis G came out with his rant against the wild card, both Drugs and I posted that perhaps the single most important thing to fix in baseball are these loopholes. If you fix them properly, the entire payroll structure in MLB will become much fairer without taking money from players (in general) and without puting a stupid salary cap in place.
Of course I am not against my team following the rules that screw other teams, I want them to take any advantage they can. But these things need to be fixed. It is the difference between a “good idea” (for a team) and a “bad rule” (for all of baseball).
Funny
just came up with that question today at work in the free agent fanpost concerning Type A’s.
I just dont think signing Holliday for a decent amount would be easy. Boras is a smart rat and he will not let Holliday sign before Bay is gone, if the Sox dont sign Bay Boras has alot of leverage to increase the price. I would prefer Holliday (for a good price) and just getting a Backup SS and hope Lowrie is healthy. But we might aswell sign Lackey if we can sign Holliday. Lackey might come cheaper as extending Beckett, although Becketts peripherals are better. We could scoop Draftpicks for Beckett then next year. Some interesting constellations out there for sure
by German Red Sox Fan on Nov 30, 2009 6:24 PM EST reply actions
Jason Bay is a poison pill
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
The Magic 80-Something Ball has spoken, ladies and gentlemen.
Agreed, Sandy.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Ideally:
The only Type A we sign is Holliday (meaning no Scutaro), Wagner refuses arbitration and both Wagner and Bay sign with a team that has an unprotected first round pick (who also do not sign other type A’s).
We would end up with two first round picks, two supplemental picks and our second round pick.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
It's post-2004 all over again.
The Pedro, Damon, etc…picks were downright nasty! (Ellsbury, Bucholz, Masterson)
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Nov 30, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Agree totally
Really there is no reason to spend on Scutaro. Scutaro is useful due to the number of positions he plays, but he is not really very good at any single position, and last year was the only year in his career he was an above average offensive player. No to the money and any picks there.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 30, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
How many DH's do we need.
Bay should walk.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Agreed.
and a $15M DH is also not something we need.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
we need to get younger
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
Agree
At this point i would almost prefer signing Cameron for CF and moving Ells. I just have a bad feeling about Bay especially if the Sox have to go 5y and 70M+. I really think he is gonna age badly, his Strikeouts are allready worrisome so is his fielding. He is barely worth 15M this year and i dont think he can keep that offense much longer.
by German Red Sox Fan on Nov 30, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have a year of Bobby Kielty than overpay Bay
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
You're not serious....remember we have Reddick ready.
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Nov 30, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
It was a hyperbole, but you get the point.
He’d take less production from a much cheaper FA.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
I'd take anyone over that Sizemore guy after seeing those pics on deadspin
frightening youg man. Won’t say anymore than that.
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!
I still don’t think Scutaro makes sense if offered arbitration. If Bay walks and Holliday signs, I’d prefer other Type A’s including Lackey, Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with Everett as the defensive minded SS stopgap.
Soriano? Blech
Even Scutaro’s a better get than Soriano.
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 1, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Rafael Soriano? The reliever for Atlanta?
You guys on the same page?
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Dec 1, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
Whoops. It would be him, wouldn't it?
Seeing as how the other one is in an 8-year shit contract with the Cubs.
Either way, though, I hate signing type-A relievers.
What do you guys consider to be a reasonable contract for Holliday?
i heard rumors from 5y/90M to 7y/119M (Delgado deal).
I dont think 5y will get Holliday to be honest, someone will go 6y 100M+, probably 6y/108M somewhere along those lines. I would not give holliday 7 years ever unless its like 7y/110M. If the offer would have to be 6y/108M would u still want Holliday or you rather take Bay at 5y/75M? So basically where would you walk away from either one and what would be a realistic offer where you are happy with either one?
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 1, 2009 8:00 AM EST reply actions
That's a good question.
I think it very much depends on if the Yankees are in or not. Aside from the Yankees, and in this market, I don’t think he will get more than 5 years and more than 100M. My non-Yankee guesses are:
Low: 5/75
High:5/100
If the Yankees are truly interested than that all changes. I know these numbers may seem low, but somehow I don’t think he is going to get close to a Teixeira-likew contract.
I'd like 5/100 as well.
But I’d also be okay with 6/110. I just have a good feeling about this guy in our line-up, much moreso than Bay.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I probably would like
up to, but not exceeding 6 years/$105 M- paid something like $15/$18/$18/$18/$18
That’s probably absolute maximum I think is worth blowing on him. Not even sure if that beats what the Cardinal’s would offer (I think their original offer to him was something like 6/$96 which is more reasonably what he’s probably worth), but he might prefer playing in Boston, where he’d probably have a better chance of winning over the course of the contract.
Did
the Cards offer that? If so-than my guesses are clearly too low.
had trouble finding it
apparently it wasn’t a formal deal, just something they were discussing with Boras, but not sure what that means.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/cardinals-boras-discuss-holliday-deal.html
Mike Cameron
It was probably discussed in some fanpost allready, but as i said above i prefer Mike Cameron over Jason Bay. While surfin the net today i found this on fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron
As posted there: Mike Cameron will be most likely be the better player next year than Bay, probably at worst an even player. The freaking difference is he costs 1y/10M instead instead of 4y+/60M+, He also is a Type B free agent so we dont lose a draft pick. We actually gain 2 picks when only signing Cameron and no type A at all. Isnt that something? All of this combined with the financial flexibility Cameron gives us, especially long term, should prolly make him the number 1 target.
Even if the Sox decide to sign Cameron and then also Bay/Holliday they might use Ellsbury as a highly regarded trade chip, because i think alot of people will value him much higher than we do and he could be a cornerstone in a Agonz/Miggy trade or whatever trade.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 1, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions
He's not at worst an even player
UZR is very unreliable, and the fact that fangraphs’ WAR uses it so prominently means that there are very incorrect numbers with fangraphs. Statcorner’s WAR for example has Bay at 5.2 last year and Cameron at 2.7. Add in the fact that you never know what could happen with a guy’s defense (see Crisps 30 point loss in UZR from 2007 to 2008), and I’d say that Cameron is the higher risk.
by Gnick on Dec 1, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
but bay is a much higher risk
because of the term his contract would have to be.
For a year I’d rather have Bay than Cameron, but a 5 year commitment vs 1 year I’d go for Cameron
This is a good point
I think it is important to look at metrics (especially the fielding ones) across the spectrum to see what picture emerges from considering all of them. This approach is helpful for smoothing out the fluctuations that occur in one or a few metrics that use information that is not always easy to define. Thus, our goal should not be to take Fangraphs WAR as a guide for construction of a team, unless there is strongly supporting data that really shows trend. Of course the Sox have their own data which is likely much more sophistocated than UZR, etc, so it is not so important for “us” to do anything ;).
Bay's 5.2 on Statcorner is hWAR
It doesn’t include defense. It’s purely an offensive stat. In fact, I can’t find any defensive stats on the site.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 1, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
It is based on just offensive stats
But fangraphs includes defensive stats which are highly unreliable.
by Gnick on Dec 2, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
That's not very useful, then
Nobody doubts Bay’s offensive abilities. The only question surrounding Bay offensively is how well will his bat age. His 5.2 hWAR makes him and Youk the best bats on the Sox last year. I don’t need a value stat to see that. I just have to look ar his OPS or wOBA.
What I want from a value stat, like WAR, is the player’s overall worth—and that includes defense. Bay stinks defensively by every available metric. So, he is worth less than 5.2 WAR no matter how you look at it. You may not like UZR, but a player who is consistently well below average on a variety of defensive stats is probably a pretty bad defensive player.
The Sox’ biggest problem last year was defense. Bay, Ellsbury, and Lowell were well below average—and Tek, VMart, and Kottaras couldn’t throw anyone out. Ells and Lowell may improve. Mikey was very good in past years and his mobility may be better next year. Ells is still pretty young. Bay, in contrast, is what he is: a bad defensive OF. If the Sox can upgrade their run-prevention without hurting their offense too much, they’ll be a vastly improved team next year.
Holliday would be an improvement over Bay. The only question about Holliday is length of contract, cost, and signability.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 2, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
HOW BOUT JACK
i wish they would go after felix and just get jack wilson in the trade great glove up the middle fit well with dustin
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