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Regarding Lowrie, Some Analytical Questions, and, I Guess We'll See

 Aloha everyone,

 

To the regular contributors and authors, I offer my thanks. By lurking here for this season, your interactions have made it evident that there is more to a pitching performance beyond Ks, BBs, and ERA- WHIP is something I generally did not look at.

 

I've noticed that as the season wore on, some gave Nick Green credit for being a stopgap solution at short, a camp I place myself in. What has motivated me to reach out to you all is the idea I've seen floating around here that Jed Lowrie is someone Boston brass should not give up on just yet.

 

It isn't my intent to attack this line of thinking- after all, Pedro was written off to be too small to be a power pitcher- but for a community that generally does an excellent job of backing up claims and dreams with statistical data, my question is thus: what is it that makes Jed Lowrie so special, as opposed to an Aaron Bates?

 

This leads to my larger question. When it comes to evaluating players other than pitchers, where might I find a good tutorial/ statistical database? WAR and UZR are thrown around here, specifically in reference to Ellsbury as of late, and I feel like I'm coming back to school after being out sick for a month. Averages, BBs, Ks, and OBP all tell their performance at the plate. How does one analyze who's a better overall player between say Holliday and Bay?

 

Any insight is greatly appreciated.  

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Fangraphs should be your "Baseball for Dummies" for a little bit.

StatCorner, Baseball Reference are both good data sites as well.

For analysis, Fangraphs has a good blog; SB Nation has Beyond the Boxscore, Driveline Mechanics, and several numerically able team blogs (OTM’s getting there – still converting some people); check the daily links post I do (the Filter) for other good links from assorted blogs and sites, along with chances to laugh at “other” links. Now that I’m done self-pimping…

Jed was slightly above average defensively all throughout the minors* and in his time in the majors**, so that alone makes him one of the better options available to us at SS. He’s also very young and cheap, which moves him ahead of most FAs.

The real gravy, for both sides of the debate, is his bat. The Jed fanboy(s) [don’t know if anyone else is ever going to join me in that club] will tell you that he was above average before the time when he was likely playing hurt, and that he still managed to be almost average with one functioning wrist (using wOBA to qualify his performance here). The bad LHP/RHP splits he showed, they will tell you, were probably the result of the injury, and can be put to rest when considering his splits in the minors.

Bring up the time he’s missed, and his inability to stay healthy, and you’ll have to withstand some frustrated rants, as it’s been explained before that we can’t really blame HIM for the injury. He played through it (and hid it) originally because we needed him to, and went along with the team’s request to avoid surgery this past offseason in order to be ready for ST.

He appeared to be healthy and good to go, but something aggravated it, and he missed most of the first half of the season recovering from the surgery he should have had this time last season. In an attempt to return ahead of schedule, he was hit by a pitch in the knee during a rehab start, which delayed him for a little. He eventually returned to the majors, but wasn’t ever “ready” to start full-time, and unfortunately he was still feeling some pain in the wrist. When it flared up after a series against the MFY (IIRC), they sent him to the DL without getting it fully checked out first, probably because they were paranoid that he was going to be lost for the season and they needed to replace him ASAP.

He ended up just needing some meds for a little nerve issue, but the downtime required another rehab stint, during which he was supposed to prove he was pain free, or at least close enough that he could play consistently. He came back up late in the season, got a few PAs, managed to make his season statline look less horrific (still a really small sample size), and gave his supporters a thrill when he went yard. Unfortunately, Tito would let Gonzo sleep in the same bed as his own wife before benching him (his performance here didn’t help this matter), so Jed was forced to sit.

Now, some of believe that Jed should be the starter coming into ST next year. Of course, this requires that he is tested extensively and we find some form of cheap, reliable backup (wouldn’t mind Gonzo, but for WAY less than the option). Assuming he meets every medical benchmark, we can project him to be at least an average SS, at least, with a ceiling of being one of the top 2 or 3 SS in the game, in terms of total value. To his supporters, Jed could be the bargain brand equivalent of the good JJ Hardy, a solid glove with a good bat (probably less homers, more doubles).

If JJ Hardy can be had for cheap, let the competition begin. If not, find a competent backup and let Jed take his shot.

: By the limited data available – even if it was a huge sample size, his defensive statistics from the minors are going to mostly limited to errors (far too subjective) and fielding percentage (based on errors, flawed).
*
: In a small sample of UZR, which is probably not the safest estimate of his ability at this point.

[I’ll let the non-Jed-fanatics explain their views, as I won’t be able to without bias. And yes, I know I’m overly crazy about this kid.]

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 3, 2009 11:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dammit, the bold stuff is supposed to the single asterisk's explanation.

The second explanation is supposed to be the double asterisk, but one of them probably got picked up as HTML format.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 3, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not really completely related

but just a thought- Gonzo had a no-trade clause specifically to the red sox. The impression I get is that theo and tito called him up and said pretty please come back, we need you, you’re our starter for the rest of the year (and then he performed so well he wouldn’t have been taken out anyways)
So the chances of him signing for less to be probably our backup shortstop are slim to none, I’m pretty sure he’ll end up walking and we’ll be looking for someone else as a backup (hardy sounds great, depending on the cost!)

by wolf9309 on Nov 4, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2 long, didnt reed

wat r u writin a book or smthing?

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Nov 4, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, it could have gone on and on.

Just summing up everything I have to say.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 4, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As bs says, www.fangraphs.com is the go-to site right now. Read their long explanations about WAR linked in their glossary. Its written very cleary and touches on wOBA, UZR and FIP, which are all great things to understand.

Lowrie would be great, if healthy. He has shown an ability to be an above average fielder and a league-average hitter. This is suprememly valuable for a cost-controlled shortstop. The problem, of course, is that he has been unable to stay healthy.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 4, 2009 12:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I type up ALL that...

And people will still sum up the injury thing as “he has been unable to stay healthy.” I swear, it seems like you people would blame the car battery for not jumping itself sometimes. If they had let him get the surgery the first time around, banking on the ~99% heal rate (BS number), instead of the ~60% chance of it healing on its own, we would probably not be having this discussion right now.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 4, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What if he isn't healthy next year?

Will you be making the same argument a year from now? I am not advocating giving up on the kid, but I also do not want to rely on him. I think we are basically on the same page; if JJ Hardy is available, go get him. Let them split time and then, if Lowrie plays well, cut ties with Hardy.

There really aren’t too many better options available at SS, so I think Lowrie will get a chance. But let’s not kid ourselves; the kid has proven very little at this point. We need to get someone else that can contribute at the position (and I don’t mean Nick Green, and hopefull not Alex Gonzalez).

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 4, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If the wrist still hasn't healed after a surgery and lots of time off, then yes, THEN I will say that he is done.

But at this point, he still deserves the benefit of the doubt in terms of durability.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 4, 2009 12:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That is the judgement call.

For me, I am a little fed up after a year and a half of injury. For you, it takes 2.5 years.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 4, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not really the point though.

Because there’s no way to look at it and say you expect it to have healed during these 1.5 years.

Injured halfway through ’08.
Had to play with it.
Offseason, Sox elected not to get surgery on it.
Turns out it needed surgery.
Rushed back after only a couple months, clearly still in pain but still made to play.

He has injured himself ONCE and poor management of said injury by the organization has left him unable to get it back up to strength. There’s just no real way this is “on” Lowrie.

by USG on Nov 4, 2009 1:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not trying to assign blame. Whether it was the Sox mistake, or Lowire’s “poor healing ability,” Lowrie simply has not been able to get healthy enough to play consistently and productively. I’m hoping he can fully heal, but are we sure he can? I just am not confident enough in his health to go into another season with a questionably healthy Jed Lowrie and Nick Green. We need another major league quality shortstop on this roster.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 4, 2009 2:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Except you are.

You said he’s been unable to stay healthy. That’s not true. He’s had 1 injury and been pushed with it.

I’m sorry, but if you break your wrist and keep on swinging the bat it’s not going to heal. That’s not how it works. It’s not how you assign the “injury risk” attribute.

by USG on Nov 4, 2009 2:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll rephrase: Lowrie has not stayed healthy enough to play consistently or productively. There is a chance that it never heals correctly. Again, I do not want to give up on the guy, I just want another SS on the roster that will not infuriate me everytime I see him in the lineup. Nick Green would be a fine backup if I had confidense in Lowrie. But I do not, so let’s get JJ Hardy in here.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 4, 2009 3:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

For the right price, I agree.

No need to let Milwaukee feel like they have any sort of leverage in the situation by offering too much.

Even your rephrasing sounds like it’s Lowrie’s fault. I would say it more like: “Lowrie hasn’t been given the opportunity to get fully healthy, and has been forced to play injured and then in short, rushed rehab stints. He played very well at first for having one good wrist, but whatever happened to it after ST obviously messed it up worse.”

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 5, 2009 8:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It was one injury

It just took the Red Sox the better part of a year to resolve the injury, and then time to rehab it. He does not have a history of injuries, like Pee Wee did (boy could he field when he was healthy).

"simul justus et peccator"

by cavman on Nov 4, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the real question is why he shouldn't be given another chance?

He was a good performer in the Sox’ minor league system, came out swinging a good bat before his injury, which was then poorly handled by a team desperate to have found its answer. In reality, Jed shouldn’t have been playing in 2008. He should’ve had surgery, gotten ready for ST or shortly after, and we’d not be talking about this right now is my guess.

But that’s not how they went about things. They made the injury worse, and Lowrie has never been playing at full health. Give him an offseason to heal up, and he’ll have his first real fair challenge since the first month he came up, during which time he played quite well.

Until then, I don’t see why we shouldn’t assume he’ll perform like he did without his injury and as he was projected to. He maintained an impressive clip as a RHB throughout his struggles with his left wrist, and he was a very even guy in splits throughout the minors, so there’s no reason to assume he’s naturally that bad vs. righties. Give him time. It’s not like we’ve got any other options, besides.

by USG on Nov 4, 2009 12:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Basically what I said, minus the love story blow-by-blow (mixed metaphors are fun).

Although I do get the fear that he’ll end up like Nomar, which is what I think was going through the minds of the management when they DL’d him after the twinge in the late summer.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 4, 2009 12:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, I don't get the Aaron Bates comparison.

Lowrie was a medium-light build SS who excelled in every level of the minors before his injury and was always on the radar as a potential SS of the future.

Aaron Bates was touted as a slugger with a good 1B glove, but hasn’t particularly shown any power accept against the lowest of A-rank clubs and in Lancaster, where Ellsbury could probably knock 20 dingers. He had a nice breakout half-season in Portland this year, but he’s well behind ideal progression age-wise, and probably a major league bench guy at best. Maybe he could start in the NL, we’ll see.

by USG on Nov 4, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bates wasn't ever supposed to be a long-term guy. He was just visiting.

He’s not necessarily done yet by any means. Just don’t expect him to be getting any starts with the Sox.

by USG on Nov 4, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Darn, My Comment Didn't Go Up.

I raised Aaron Bates as an example of someone that I generally don’t see to much stumping for around these parts, as opposed to Jed.

I guess part of the reason why that is related to Lugo being championed as a bust and Green being a stopgap, and first base being generally taken care of.

I intended to seek out ways to assess whether a prospect, specifically a non-pitching prospect, should be someone to get excited about or not.

by Christopher B on Nov 4, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No immediate need

for Bates. But we need a SS. I see that as why people talk about Jed. We have 4 guys on the ML squad who can play 1b. After next season, that is a different story as some contracts expire.

"simul justus et peccator"

by cavman on Nov 4, 2009 9:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, there's not a Aaron Bates fanatic on here (that I know of), so there's one reason.

Probably one somewhere, but not on OTM. You’ll see in a couple weeks when the top prospects voting comes around who we get excited over.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 5, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

for what it's worth

I’ve never followed him much in the minors, but the little bit that he was up, I was VERY impressed with his defense at 1B. He made some reaches and grabs that I thought looked superhuman.

Don’t know if he has a ton of potential beyond backup 1B though, not a fanatic.

by wolf9309 on Nov 6, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's got solid D.

But unless he’s a Youkilis-like late bloomer—but even more extreme—I’m guessing he’s not gonna be a big guy for any team.

by USG on Nov 6, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sadly, Lowrie has to live with the decision someone else made for him

He thought the team knew what was best for him and did what they told him to do. They were wrong, so now he has to suffer for it.

The problem is that we, as fans, have no idea how that wrist injury will affect him, if at all, going forward. Wrist injuries, especially ones with complications like Lowrie’s, CAN sap a guy’s power, or have other consequences. Personally, I don’t think Lowrie should just be handed the starting SS job, he should earn it in Spring Training like he was doing last year. If Gonzalez is okay with competing with Lowrie for playing time, bring him back, and if not, find a competent player who CAN play everyday is Lowrie can’t do it. Sadly, FA options suck, so this might be difficult. If the Brewers want Brad Mills and MDC for Hardy, I’d be inclined to do it, but I feel like if you go that route you’re pretty much preparing for a season of having Hardy starting, and I don’t know if the Sox are ready to do that to Lowrie just yet.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 4, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Crap, yeah, Adam Mills, who actually had a pretty good time up in AAA at the end of the year

My point was more, if you can get Hardy for cheap, do it, but to get value out of him you’d probably be looking to make him the starter at SS, which would make Lowrie the super-sub (a very good super-sub no doubt, but most likely not the starter), and I don’t know if the FO is ready to give up on him like that. It’s definitely an interesting question for those who really believe in Lowrie going forward.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 4, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

With the way Hardy played last season, he has to be okay with a platoon role. He has one final year before free agency (or did the Brewers succesfully manipulate the service time?) and a one year competition between him and Jed would be good for all involved.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 4, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe that barring a lawsuit, he has two years

I could see a platoon I suppose, Hardy does better against RHP and Lowrie hit LHP better (although the wrist issue factored into that), so maybe that’s how they would split it.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 5, 2009 12:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Correction: Hardy being better against RHP was just from this year

From 2006-2008 he was much better against LHP as well

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 5, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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