Regarding Lowrie, Some Analytical Questions, and, I Guess We'll See

StatCorner, Baseball Reference are both good data sites as well.

For analysis, Fangraphs has a good blog; SB Nation has Beyond the Boxscore, Driveline Mechanics, and several numerically able team blogs (OTM’s getting there – still converting some people); check the daily links post I do (the Filter) for other good links from assorted blogs and sites, along with chances to laugh at “other” links. Now that I’m done self-pimping…

Jed was slightly above average defensively all throughout the minors* and in his time in the majors**, so that alone makes him one of the better options available to us at SS. He’s also very young and cheap, which moves him ahead of most FAs.

The real gravy, for both sides of the debate, is his bat. The Jed fanboy(s) [don’t know if anyone else is ever going to join me in that club] will tell you that he was above average before the time when he was likely playing hurt, and that he still managed to be almost average with one functioning wrist (using wOBA to qualify his performance here). The bad LHP/RHP splits he showed, they will tell you, were probably the result of the injury, and can be put to rest when considering his splits in the minors.

Bring up the time he’s missed, and his inability to stay healthy, and you’ll have to withstand some frustrated rants, as it’s been explained before that we can’t really blame HIM for the injury. He played through it (and hid it) originally because we needed him to, and went along with the team’s request to avoid surgery this past offseason in order to be ready for ST.

He appeared to be healthy and good to go, but something aggravated it, and he missed most of the first half of the season recovering from the surgery he should have had this time last season. In an attempt to return ahead of schedule, he was hit by a pitch in the knee during a rehab start, which delayed him for a little. He eventually returned to the majors, but wasn’t ever “ready” to start full-time, and unfortunately he was still feeling some pain in the wrist. When it flared up after a series against the MFY (IIRC), they sent him to the DL without getting it fully checked out first, probably because they were paranoid that he was going to be lost for the season and they needed to replace him ASAP.

He ended up just needing some meds for a little nerve issue, but the downtime required another rehab stint, during which he was supposed to prove he was pain free, or at least close enough that he could play consistently. He came back up late in the season, got a few PAs, managed to make his season statline look less horrific (still a really small sample size), and gave his supporters a thrill when he went yard. Unfortunately, Tito would let Gonzo sleep in the same bed as his own wife before benching him (his performance here didn’t help this matter), so Jed was forced to sit.

Now, some of believe that Jed should be the starter coming into ST next year. Of course, this requires that he is tested extensively and we find some form of cheap, reliable backup (wouldn’t mind Gonzo, but for WAY less than the option). Assuming he meets every medical benchmark, we can project him to be at least an average SS, at least, with a ceiling of being one of the top 2 or 3 SS in the game, in terms of total value. To his supporters, Jed could be the bargain brand equivalent of the good JJ Hardy, a solid glove with a good bat (probably less homers, more doubles).

If JJ Hardy can be had for cheap, let the competition begin. If not, find a competent backup and let Jed take his shot.

: By the limited data available – even if it was a huge sample size, his defensive statistics from the minors are going to mostly limited to errors (far too subjective) and fielding percentage (based on errors, flawed).
*: In a small sample of UZR, which is probably not the safest estimate of his ability at this point.

[I’ll let the non-Jed-fanatics explain their views, as I won’t be able to without bias. And yes, I know I’m overly crazy about this kid.]

As bs says, www.fangraphs.com is the go-to site right now. Read their long explanations about WAR linked in their glossary. Its written very cleary and touches on wOBA, UZR and FIP, which are all great things to understand.

Lowrie would be great, if healthy. He has shown an ability to be an above average fielder and a league-average hitter. This is suprememly valuable for a cost-controlled shortstop. The problem, of course, is that he has been unable to stay healthy.

He was a good performer in the Sox’ minor league system, came out swinging a good bat before his injury, which was then poorly handled by a team desperate to have found its answer. In reality, Jed shouldn’t have been playing in 2008. He should’ve had surgery, gotten ready for ST or shortly after, and we’d not be talking about this right now is my guess.

But that’s not how they went about things. They made the injury worse, and Lowrie has never been playing at full health. Give him an offseason to heal up, and he’ll have his first real fair challenge since the first month he came up, during which time he played quite well.

Until then, I don’t see why we shouldn’t assume he’ll perform like he did without his injury and as he was projected to. He maintained an impressive clip as a RHB throughout his struggles with his left wrist, and he was a very even guy in splits throughout the minors, so there’s no reason to assume he’s naturally that bad vs. righties. Give him time. It’s not like we’ve got any other options, besides.