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Around SBN: Raiders' GM Begins The Purge

Let's talk Johnson


From MLBTR:

The Marlins are "very willing" to trade Josh Johnson for the right package, according to John Perrotto (via Twitter).  Just a few weeks ago, it seemed as though the Marlins intended on signing the 25-year-old ace to a multi-year deal.

 

So let's talk about that.  Now that they're publicly saying they want to get rid of him, I think this is clearly something that seems much more up Theo's alley than someone like Halladay, given that he doesn't like aging players for long periods of time, Johnson wouldn't involve trading within the AL East (or even AL), and the fact that Theo and the Marlins have some sort of rapport going on.

 

Now Johnson is clearly developing into an ace pitcher, a very powerful lefty.  He's only 25, with two years left, and reportedly wants a Greinke-like extension.  I think Johnson is probably easily worth that kind of extension (and Greinke is worth about 3x it!), even though it is significantly more than we're paying our other overpowering 25-year old Lefty.

He has undergone Tommy John surgery already, which may be a little worrying, but he seems to have recovered- in fact recovered extraordinarily quickly and seems no the worse for wear for it.

I do like that having him would prepare us for a possible Lester Johnson Buchholz Dice-K Wake1-2-3-4 for 2011 IFF we could get him without spending Buchholz- which would be a very powerful, very inexpensive rotation.

 

The problem is what will he cost to get?  The Marlins haven't made any announcements I've seen yet, but Keith Law thinks they could get 2 MLB-ready players and 2 AA-prospects.  I'm trying to think of what we could put together that would work out.  I'm not really too up on what the Marlins need, but I know they'll need some serious talent.  

I would probably want to keep Buchholz- he's another solid 25-year old with a lot of upside, unless it was basically a 1-for-1.  That would be very unlike Florida anyways, as he's probably due for an extension in a year or two and they aren't in the habit of keeping around players when they get more expensive.  

 

For a talent like Johnson, I'd be willing to give up Kelly as a centerpiece (I don't think I'm as up on Kelly as everyone else, partly because I don't believe his heart is in pitching and partly because he's still in A-ball and has a lot of question marks).  For MLB ready, we don't have a lot.  I'd be willing to give up Reddick, who's probably our closest- though I'm not sure if they are really in need of an OF right now.  Pitching-wise, I'd be willing to give them Bowden, who still needs some AAA time, but isn't too far from being able to do decently in AAAA.  Probably halfway through the season they could bring him to the rotation and he'd do fine.  Other than that maybe Dustin Richardson?  He's a little old and I like him a lot (I'd like to see him have a shot in spring training), but I feel like pitching would be the main thing they'd be looking for as my cursory glance of their young players looks like they have decent hitting.

 

What do you guys  think?  I feel like that's maybe a little weak but not sure what else I'd be willing to give and it is only 2 years of the guy. 

 

EDIT: Obviously the guy doesn't throw righty and I'm a moron.  Still a great pitcher, and at Fenway a killer righty is probably more useful than a killer lefty, so thoughts/admonishments are still welcome.

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This is terrible

HE IS NOT A LEFTY DAMN IT.

Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!

by gizmosandy on Nov 27, 2009 8:59 PM EST reply actions  

All Gizmosandy funny stuff aside

you now have ZERO credibility here as far as I’m concerned. You referenced 2x in this write up this guy is a LHP. Come on young man.

Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!

by gizmosandy on Nov 27, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions  

ha

you’re right. I’m a fool. I watched him bat and he BATS lefty. I’ve never seen any pitcher bat lefty and pitch righty before so I assumed. I don’t deserve the credibility :)

by wolf9309 on Nov 27, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm only being half serious

but I will surely take this opportunity to throw stones don’t take it personal.

Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!

by gizmosandy on Nov 27, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

believe me

I’ll take what i say to myself much more personally :D

by wolf9309 on Nov 28, 2009 4:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Hint:

EDIT

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Nov 27, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

nah

I thought about that but I decided I’d rather show myself being as much of a moron as I am. I’ll edit a disclaimer at the bottom

by wolf9309 on Nov 28, 2009 4:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Self-destructive behavior = win.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Nov 29, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Not only that

He left Beckett out of the 2010 rotation.

But on the whole, I’m game for Josh Johnson. I wouldn’t want to give up the farm, or Buchholz, but I’d be happy to spin a few guys for him…

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 27, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah that's just another moron mistake

cuz i can’t count. I meant 2011. That one I’ll edit. I’ve never been good at proofreading.

by wolf9309 on Nov 28, 2009 4:15 AM EST up reply actions  

All good.

At first I thought you meant trading Beckett for Johnson and thinking “why would the Marlins want to do that…”

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 28, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not even sure the Marlins would want Buchholz.

He will be arbitration eligible in a year, and the Marlins don’t even like paying arbitration prices.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 27, 2009 9:19 PM EST reply actions  

The only pitchers I'd want in any deal at the moment are

Lincecum
Halladay
Webb
Haren
Hernandez

Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!

by gizmosandy on Nov 27, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha

You would rather have Webb over Greinke? You wouldn’t trade for Verlander, Lee, or Kershaw??

by drabidea on Nov 27, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

You don't want Lee. He is only 1 year from Free Agency and Verlander can't be far behind him.

Verlander’s youth is a plus though. Tigers never deal him.

"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko

by sox-inda-south on Nov 28, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

No just the guys listed

Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!

by gizmosandy on Nov 28, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

According to Cot’s, he’s arbitration eligible in 2011.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 28, 2009 1:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but I believe that his service time to get him to that point was calculated at the beginning of 2009

I’m sure I’ve read that he just missed the cutoff by a few days and has 5 more years of service time left. I’ll try and find a link.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 28, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

That would be good.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 28, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's a quote from Eric Van explaining it over at SOSH

I can give a direct link if needed:

“You’re basing that on the spreadsheet showing payroll obligations, right? You’ll notice there’s no “FA” for 2014, just an “Arb 3” for 2013. That spreadsheet was apparently a pre-season one that has been updated for personnel changes but not changes in arb scheduling due to time in the minors. When it was constructed, on the assumption that Clay would spend all of 2009 in the majors, he was due to be a super 2 in 2011, with 2014 being Arb 4. He will no longer be a super 2 in 2011, and will have his 3 arb years in 2012-14."

So Clay still has 2 pre-arb. years apparently, which is valuable for both us and any team we might trade him too, including the Marlins.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 28, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Awesome.

It makes sense and for sure this would up his value for any team.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 28, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

yup

he seems very unlike the Marlins’ type of player to trade for. And really for the sake of having Lester/Johnson/Buchholz locked up till 2013-2014, I’d give up most anything from our farm

by wolf9309 on Nov 28, 2009 4:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Package of

Kelly
Bowden
Kalish/Reddick
Lars/Rizzo
Doubront

Or something like that. Not sure how dire the Marlins’ financial straits are, so I don’t know how tempting that’d be to them.

by Ben Buchanan on Nov 27, 2009 10:10 PM EST reply actions  

That would get it done IMO

I just don’t know if the Sox should train their farm for a pitcher. Do we really need a pitcher that bad?? I mean our rotation is Lester, Beckett, Dice-K, Buch, and Wake. We need another 3rd or 4th starter this year and next years free agent pitching is pretty good.

I wouldn’t mind doing it for a big hitter because they are harder to find.

by drabidea on Nov 27, 2009 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't think it gets it done

In a vacuum, he should cost more than Halladay and less than Hernandez. But he’s got less of a track record than the other two, he had TJS (but doesn’t seem affected by it), and it’s the Marlins. Still think you’d have to add Buchholz though, or Bard.

The good thing about Johnson is that he was reportedly asking for only a Zach Greinke-like extension, something like 4 years $40 million, which would make him very valuable because you then have payroll space left to sign a guy like Holliday and then maybe extending Beckett (depending on what he wants).

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 28, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions  

true

I also don’t think it necesarily gets it done. They may want something like Kelly/Bowden/Reddick/Bard which may be possible. I think what I suggested is much more than what halladay is worth and much less than hernandez. Probably a little less than johnson. I think his TJS is very little of a question because he seems to have recovered 100% and when people have needed multiple TJS it’s been because they haven’t 100% recovered. Am I wrong about that?

by wolf9309 on Nov 28, 2009 4:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah.

At this point, it seems like TJ surgery is pretty routine.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Nov 28, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think they want Bucholz due to the arbitration thing and the fact that he is the same age as Johnson.

It would have to be Bard, Kelly, Reddick, Bowden, and Lars. That sounds fair especially if he agrees to a team friendly contract. Then we spend the next few years going crazy in Latin American signings and above slot bonuses in the Draft to restock the Farm.

Remember this is the Marlins, the prospect-happy sharks of the MLB, they will have to be overwhelmed. And don’t they have a good First Baseman in the minors if I recall? Gaby Sanchez? Logan Morrison? They probably won’t even want Lars.

Reddick, Maybin, and Stanton is an awesome young outfield though……

"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko

by sox-inda-south on Nov 28, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Johnson vs. Halladay

I think it takes roughly the same package for either and the Bowdens, Kalishes and Andersons just aren’t going to get it done. Think Buchholtz, Kelly and Reddick/Tejeda or, at minimum, Westmoreland, Kelly, Tejeda..

by MickS on Nov 29, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

I don't see Tazawa as off-limits.

He’s a good prospect, and pitched relatively well in his cup of coffee this season, but I don’t see him as a real high ceiling guy.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 29, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not really about his ceiling though

It’s about the deal they made and the market he represents. I mean, if he’s the main cog in a trade for Pujols, yeah, he’ll be on the first plane out of here, but he took less money to sign specifically with the Sox, and if other Japanese amateurs start doing that having a successful one on the team already could help further open doors.

I don’t know the man personally of course, but it seems Theo likes having a strong presence in Japan (for the right player of course). I dunno, I could be completely wrong on this obviously, but I just see Tazawa representing more than just an ordinary pitching prospect.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 29, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I hear you.

But if a major deal came down to Tazawa or Kelly, I think we’d flip Tazawa.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Nov 29, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

You know you want Yu Darvish....

"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko

by sox-inda-south on Nov 29, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Then again....that's a whole different thread

"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko

by sox-inda-south on Nov 29, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions  

True.

Just saying, that probably means we’d have to offer the pre-de-planetized Pluto for them to budge.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Nov 30, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

so now that they've officially said that they won't trade johnson or Hanley

How much do you think it’ll take us to get both???

Just kidding.

I assume now they’ll probably plan on trading him at the deadline if it doesn’t look like they’ll contend. Reasonably, they can probably get about the same amount then as they can now.

by wolf9309 on Nov 30, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

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