Is Jacoby Ellsbury On The Fast Track To The Hall Of Fame?
by Randy Booth on Nov 25, 2009 6:00 AM EST
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PrintAn interesting question was raised to Jim Rice at Friday's Granite State Baseball Dinner. Rice, who this summer was inducted into the the baseball Hall of Fame, was asked who he thought on the current Red Sox team has potential to be the next Sox Hall of Famer.
Rice's answer was a surprising one: Jacoby Ellsbury.
When the question was asked, I thought about how I would answer it. I ran through the options in my head: Jason Varitek? No. Mike Lowell? No. Kevin Youkilis? That'd be tough. While Rice tried to figure out the best answer, I came to the conclusion of Jonathan Papelbon. I figured with the pace he is on, Papelbon could be a Hall of Famer. He'd have to pitch for many more years of course, but as of right now it's looking good for him.
Dustin Pedroia is another good choice, but we've only seen three full seasons out of him.
This all went through my mind, then Rice blurted out "Jacoby."
Huh?
I like Jacoby. I've defended him a lot before on this blog even though I wouldn't say I'm his biggest fan either. I think he does a lot of things well, but his on-base percentage (lifetime .350, mind you) usually always gets the spotlight because he's the Sox's leadoff man.
But Hall of Fame potential, Jim? Really?
Pedroia and Ellsbury are similar players because they're both young. Pedroia has one more full season on Ellsbury, but more importantly two big awards: AL Rookie of the Year and that thing they called an MVP. I'm not sure how much merit it holds, but yeah, I think it's kind of important.
Ellsbury is a solid all-around player, but even in his two full seasons he hasn't shown stats that could indicate that with 12-15 more similar years that he'd be Hall of Fame material. Actually, if he continued to do this for 12 years, I think we'd be a little disappointed. While I don't think Ellsbury was bad this season, I think he has potential to be much better.
Pedroia, on the other hand, is arguably the best second baseman in the American League, with both the bat and the glove. No mention from Rice? It's hard to believe. Maybe he was just thinking about outfielders, like himself. But I thought even Papelbon would get a mention from Rice.
(Oh, I forgot to mention that Papelbon's younger brothers -- Jeremy and Josh -- were sitting two tables down from Rice. Still no mention?)
I'm going to give Rice a mulligan on this one, but he needs to re-answer and think long and hard about a better choice. I'm willing to look over this.
What do you think? Who on the current Red Sox roster may be in the Hall of Fame one day? Any pitchers that stand out? And no, 'former' players do not count (I know what you're thinking already. That guy we signed in the offseason to save our season that dominated in the National League. But NO, you can not answer Brad Penny).
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You're right about thinking that
Papelbon and Pedroia
Paps: Because of this meaningless stat called “saves” and his post season resume gives him a legit shot to make it to the HOF.
Dustin Pedroia: Check out this very interesting piece by Troy Patterson about Pedroia’s potential to get to the 3000 hits club.
John Lester: over the last 2 season he’s been in the top 3 LHP in the majors.
Oh and Taco was worth a 1.9 WAR this year: Not what I call “a solid all-around player”
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
I do think
that UZR is inaccurate at Fenway, which destroyed his WAR. He definitely needs to work a lot on reading the ball, but I don’t think he’s near as close to the bottom as UZR would have you believe, based on other CF’s I’ve watched.
I'd go with Lester, if I had to.
Because Jed’s achievements wouldn’t fit on a single plaque.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Rice is a poor analyst
All on has to do is listen to him on NESN or any interview he gives. Rice doesn’t know much.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
Rice must be saying Ellsbury's steals will get him in the HOF.
But I would go with Papelbon, Pedroia, and Ortiz. It is pretty amazing how many players on this team have the potential to make the HOF. And maybe another one with A-Gone or Doc.
Beginning of the Sarkisian ERA
If so, he's a fool
If Tim Raines couldn’t get to Cooperstown on steals, Ellsbury won’t even cross the New York State border.
I do think
that Ellsbury has the greatest chance of anyone on the team to make it, just because he is the most flashy (which makes people famous). That said, I don’t think anyone on the team is a future hall-of-famer, really, unless Pedroia improves on his MVP year or one of the young pitchers, Buchholz or Lester improves dramatically (Lester’s maybe got the best shot- he’s a fantastic young pitcher who should continue to improve plus he’s got the whole cancer battling adversity thing which should win him some points.
I’ve never seen anyone make a positive big deal about Ells’ OBP, I remember this year they were talking all about how it needs to improve on NESN- which is not necessarily the most OBP friendly place.
I'd say Lester
He’s got the build, brain and stuff to be very good for a very long time. He probably needs to step up a couple notches to get into the “elite” category. But of the current Sox, he’d be my pick to have a brilliant career.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
There was quite a movement on OTM for JD to leadoff at the beginning of the season.
Because Ells managed to win a poll, while most of the comments were in support of Drew.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Not a huge sample size though.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
true
but his career #s there aren’t terribly good. 288 Plate appearances, .233/.340/.736
Still not a huge sample size, but large enough for me to not want him there. His career OPS in the leadoff spot is .052 lower than his next lowest spot (6th, actually)
True.
But it’s still best to assume he’d be able to put up numbers similar to his career norms.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
why?
if we had anyone performing at those levels in the leadoff spot for 342 plate appearances (I said it wrong the first time, the 288 was at bats), everyone would be clamoring for their heads. In my opinion, while not a huge sample size, it’s large enough for me to assume he’s not comfortable leading off.
For the first half of 2003 Johnny Damon put up the same numbers (.734 OPS). No one was clamoring for his head. But really that’s not the point. Those stats are certainly not acceptable for a lead-off hitter.
The point is that we have more than 5300 PA’s of data for JD Drew. Why rely on a sample of 342 PA’s? I can’t think of any reason.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
well part of my reasoning
is that he’s said he is uncomfortable leading off. But maybe I’m being too Francona-ish there. It’s a good point about the sample size.
Which is one reason we backed off.
Along with Ells’ minor improvement in OBP.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Yessir.
Because the Ells votes were probably mostly from non-users.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Is Ellsbury another Ichiro?
Let see, he would need:
—A better arm.
—To become a more patient hitter.
—Hit with potentially more power.
Well, maybe not then, but I still like watching him play!
power comparison
ISO for both
Ichiro .113
Ellsbury .114
Ellsbury would probably be a better hitter if he stopped trying to hit for power.
As far as patience, Ichiro is anything but- he is a great hitter but not a patient one. He swings at way more than league average pitches (he’s 3.7% over, ellsbury is 4.3% under) and swings at 32(!)% of pitches outside the strike zone (7 points above MLB Average) while Ellsbury swings at 24% (not great but 1 point below league average. He only walked 4.8% of the time. Ellsbury walked under league average (9.1%), but well above Ichiro at 7.3%
Where Ichiro kills everyone else is his contact rate outside the strike zone (81.8% when league average is 61.8%. Ellsbury is also good with a 72.5% rate, just not as good).
Where Ichiro is really a freak is that he manages year in, year out to have a ridiculously high BABIP. He just seems able to aim the ball better than anyone else I’ve ever heard of.
Arm? Absolutely, Ellsbury’s is weaker.
SO the moral of the story is they hit for almost the same power, Ellsbury is a much more patient batter, but Ichiro is a freak of nature.
hence its hard to judge Ichiro on patience
since, if you watch him he purposely attacks pitches that are outside.
In other words, the pitcher is often intentionally throwing a pitch just off the plate – which would be a mistake to ‘chase’ by any other hitter. But Ichiro considers that part of his hitting zone. Depending where the left side infielders are setup, he seems to prefer that pitch to one that is fat and over the middle because his intention is force them to make an outstanding play to get him out. Either he gets on with an infield hit or an error and i don’t think he cares which.
Oddly when in two-out, RISP situations, Ichiro suddenly becomes Mr On-Base. In 648 career Plate Appearances with two-out and Runners in Scoring Position, he’s posted a .481 OBP! His career OPS in that situation is a sick .936.
He’s one of the most unconventional hitters I’ve ever seen (I watch a lot of Seattle games). Freak of nature is probably the right term.
I don’t think Ellsbury should try to mimic Ichiro! Although I wouldnt’ mind seeing Ellsbury try to bunt for hits a little bit more and as you say, stop “trying” to hit for power. I think as Ellsbury matures physically his power should naturally improve over the next few years. His doubles should go up. If they do, and he gets even a twitch better at OBP, then his overall value would jump quite a bit (assuming no drop in speed stats).
He’s a looooong way from being on my HoF radar.
Pedrioa
I think would be “most likely” though I don’t see it happening to any of our current players. He’s a baseball player’s baseball player, a scrapper who everyone loves. He hits well and plays spectacular defense. He is a great all around player, one of the greatest? I don’t think so but definitely one of the best of the last few years.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Can you imagine his ego if he made it in?
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Pedroia Underrated
I feel like Pedroia is still a bit underrated even with the MVP. He has totaled 15 WAR using fangraphs system in 3+ seasons. Using the baseballprojection WAR calculation system it takes ~60 WAR to make the HoF although there is some in the 50-60 range, but less common.
AS radio hix posted above I think he has a shot at 3,000 hits. He has three to four more years before he even enters a “decline” phase. I think we could even see another season better than 2007. Injuries and health are huge questions that stats can’t answer, but I think Pedroia is the best shot on the current team to make the HoF.
Pedroia is by far the obvious choice.
Ignoring the fact that an MVP award is a huge boost, and the RotY is a nice plus when dealing with a non 1-shot wonder.
Pedroia will win Golden Gloves. Give it a few years, the writers will be voting for him.
He’s got the “it” factor going for him with the whole size and snappiness thing going for him. Writers like that.
Also, given the current system, he’s going to go to about 10 all-star games unless someone like Utley moves to the AL.
I’m not saying he’s a given, but if anyone is on the fast track it’s him. Youk would’ve had a shot if he’d started doing what he’s doing 2 years early. Hell, he still does if he’s got longevity. One of the things that’s hurting him is that the team is moving him away from first and depriving him of Gold Gloves.
Don't you have the sense
that Pedroia will not age well offensively? I mean more from the scouting than the Sabr perspective. He has a long swing that requires his whole body, and he swings at a lot of stuff outside the zone that he can get his bat on. When that bat slows, I am not so sure it will be pretty.
I see him getting to 3,000 hits
So I see him in the hall.
by Gnick on Nov 25, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Not likely
According to Bill James’ Career Assessments projection system, Pedroia has an 11% chance of reaching 3000 hits going into next season. If he can stay healthy, he has an excellent shot at the Hall, but I doubt he’ll end up with more than 2500 hits.
Correction -- he has a 15% chance at 3000 hits
Still, it’s probably not going to happen.
Pete Rose
In that case I would like to point out Pete Rose also had a 15% chance of reaching 3000 hits at age 25. The Bill James calculator becomes very conservative on younger players. It says Pedroia will only play for 8.5 more years and get 184.3 hits per season. I feel confident that Pedroia will play closer to 40 then that.
by TroyPatterson on Nov 25, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
But it makes sense.
I bet if you asked fans about Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulo, Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, Nick Markakis, Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera and more they would all be confident about their guys playing forever at a high level. But excellent players drop off cliffs pretty often. Look at Nomar and Andruw Jones, these guys were on HOF trajectories until they just lost it at age 30ish. Chances are that only one or two of the guys I listed above will fulfill their fans’ expectations. Let’s just hope that Pedroia is the one.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I agree
The point is for most players it comes down to health and that is something we can’t predict. If he’s healthy then I think he’s on the north side of that 15% chance.
by TroyPatterson on Nov 25, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Nomar kinda had a catastrophic injury.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
And if he plays to 40, then he has a much better chance
But most guys fall apart by then, and he’s a little guy — any major injury is going to be more likely to end his career.
I would think smaller guys are more able to recover from injuries and stay healthy. Not sure if thats true.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
It's not linear -- it's curvilinear
If he was 7’ and 300# he wouldn’t be better able to recover from injuries, but 5’9" and 180# doesn’t make him more resilient either. He’s a little guy who relies on quickness and toughness. A major injury is going to detract significantly from both in a way that wouldn’t have the same career impact on a guy who is 6’2" and 210#.
Is Pedroia quick?
He’s not fast. He swings the bat hard, but most baseball players rely on swinging a quick bat for success. From experience in the ski industry, smaller people tend to stay healthier. Their knees hold up better and they recover from injury quicker. But really, I don’t think it is a significant factor.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Fast and quick are two very different things
Think football for a second — Wes Welker of the Patriots is widely acknowledged as one of the quickest players in the game, but he’s never going to win a footrace.
Pedroia is quick — he reacts a split second faster than most other players.
And skiing? Really? Not even close to baseball. Not even remotely. But even if it were, you don’t see many 4’ people skiing professionally. There are several reasons for that, but injuries would apply too — put such a person through a full-speed crash and see how quickly they recover relative a skier the size of most pros.
I understand that a small, quick player may lose his abilities faster than a larger player, but not because of injury.
In what way would a smaller player become injured more easily than a larger player in baseball (or in any sport). I really do not understand.
I only mention the ski industry because I instruct professionally. Most long term skiers are on the smaller side. I know many guys that have been skiing every day for 40 years, but few that are more than six feet tall.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
i would tend to agree
A lot of it comes down to the knees and ankles. Those tend to take more abuse with larger athletes.
Baseball is not football or soccer – body-to-body collisions are rare so smaller players shouldn’t be more prone to injury than big players.
Loss of sheer power (strength) may decline sooner for a small player since he is less likely to have as far to fall before dropping before the ‘useful’ threshold than a large player – speaking in broad generalities here.
I never said anything about "prone to injury"
I was talking about recovering. And the kinds of injuries that baseball players tend to suffer most commonly favor the recovery of people with greater musculature.
If you depend on quickness, what happens when you blow out a knee or an ankle? If you’re talking about a quick bat, what happens when you injure a wrist, elbow, or shoulder?
If your skill is based on strength, though — much more likely if you’re bigger — you can overpower a lot of injuries. In fact, if you do have a serious injury, that’s what you end up doing in physical therapy — you effectively train yourself to overpower the injured joint.
I think its Paps.
The problem for Ells and Pedroia is that they are not too young. They are both already 26 and probably will not put together the counting stats that are needed for the HOF unless they play into their 40’s. Not to mention that Jacoby is simply not nearly good enough.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
No way Ellsbury gets in
There is now way Ells all of a sudden gets power. His only hope is if he gets 3,000 hits. Even if he somehow keeps his past two year pace of 172 hits per season. He would have to play until he was 42. I just don’t see it happening.
No.
Jacoby’s on the fast-track to the Hall of Fast, not the Hall of Fame.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
No
But I’m not really a big Ellsbury fan. We’ve all been wrong at least once before though.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 25, 2009 8:43 PM EST reply actions
Define "dominated."
(I know what you’re thinking already. That guy we signed in the offseason to save our season that dominated in the National League. But NO, you can not answer Brad Penny).
Saito?
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
presumably
since he seems to be pointing towards Smoltz, his definition of dominated is “did alright”
I thought he was talking about guys we picked up because of their history of dominating the NL.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
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