I would like to have Holliday but I don’t think that a 108 millions over 6 years will get the deal done because someone else (NY teams) will outbid us!

I think he could be a very good pitcher in 2-3 years but he’s still a prospect who have thrown 100 innings at A and A+ ball. He’s peripherals aren’t crazy good: Although he doesn’t walk a lot of people (4.9% and 3.9% BB/PA), he doesn’t strike out a ton neither (7.01 K/9). He has an elite Ground ball rate at 55% in Low A and 51% in High A against a competition much older than him but he’s still a prospect that if you can ship with an expandable player (Kotchman) to get Ricky the great, you pull the trigger: Because he’s young (he’ll be 27 next month), cheap, strike out tons of people (9.49 K/9) doesn’t walk that much (2.14 BB/9) and he can be Pedro-esque sometimes.

I thought about the points you mentioned before writing this post and it looked to me that: All this plan could “cost” us around 135-140 millions which is high but I prefer taking that route than paying Holiday 20 millions and another 5-8 millions to sign an injury prone pitcher to give the team some depth (Ricky the great is entering his 2nd year of arbitration) which combined with the raise of salaries of Youk, Lester, Pedey, Paps and MDC could take us to 140-150 millions territory.

they can certainly afford eating Lowell’s salary. I think we’re overestimating the amount Boston would have to pay to move him – he’s still, offensively at least, one of the top thirdbasemen in the game.

We really do not need to take a step back. We can win 95 games next year without over-extending ourselves too much financially.

The loss of Bay offense could be compensated by: Lowrie offensive production, V-Mart full season at the Catcher position, Ortiz producing at his 2nd half level, run prevention and the best pitching staff in the majors.

All this time that I spent reading fangraphs, USS Mariners, THT…is giving some results I guess ;)
Actually I dipping into the numbers and working on an EPIC piece that I’ll post later this week (If my work and family matters allow me to) . I hope you guys will like it.

Let’s assume you can get both players cheaply, for about $5 million. That’s $10 million for both. Ken Rosenthal said that the Sox would be willing to eat half of Lowell’s contract, about $6 million. I think they’ll have to eat more. Why would a team want Lowell at $6 million when they could sign Beltre for around that much or Figgins for maybe a little more? My guess is the Sox would have to eat at least $8 million in order to move Lowell.

But, for argument’s sake, let’s say the Sox move Lowell and eat half the contract. Then, the cost of Beltre/Cameron is $16 million or so. I’m guessing that is more than Bay will make, and may be more than Holliday ends up with. Right now, the market doesn’t look good. The Mets, Giants, and Cubs have said they’re not in on either player. And the Angels have publically said they aren’t interested in Holliday (Boras hangover from last year).

Beltre and Cameron are a huge upgrade defensively over Lowell and Ellsbury. And, Ellsbury is much better than Bay. However, there are downsides:

(1) The Sox will have $15+ million paid out to players not on their team. That could hurt the Sox’ payroll flexibility for next year.

(2) Cameron is 37-years old. Will he sign for 1-year, or would the Sox risk a multi-year contract? Assuming a short contract (say 1-year), will Reddick be ready by then or will there be another OF hole to fill after 2010?

I think ultimately, it comes down to cost. Personally, I’d like to see the Sox sign Holliday if he isn’t too expensive. Holliday solves a long-term OF problem. Cameron is a short-term solution. Also, while I love Beltre’s glove, I hate his bat. There are some who feel Beltre would be better away from Safeco. However, he never walks (4.1% last year/7.1% career), and he swings at everything (36.8% O-swings last year/30.1% career). I think cost will determine the outcome.

6yrs/18m for Holliday? There’s no way the Sox would make any deal like that. They don’t give six-year contracts — period.

FYI, in 2007 the Sox signed the then 32 years old JD Drew to a 5 year contract, Holliday will be 30 years next year and posses a very comparable skill set, so I don’t see how you are so sure about that!

What did they offer Teixeira? I’m pretty sure they were willing to go 6 years with him.

You’ll “have” to watch this or this
Man defense is SO underrated!

Bill James has him at a little below average next year at .329. Combine that with hitting in Fenway with good protection around him, and he may fare a little better.

“Holliday was horrible in the AL last year.”

If we’re judging a player based on a two month stretch, let’s see:

Matt Holliday AL OPS+: 120
Jason Bay June/July OPS+: 90