David Oritz admonishes Red Sox for not adding power. 2007 WS year they scored 867 runs, hit 166 HR. In 2009 scored 872 runs, hit 212 HR.
Twitter / Peter Gammons: David Oritz admonishes Red ...
Mr. Gammons doesn't say much on Twitter, but when he does, he's always spot on.
about 2 years ago
Randy Booth
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we had lots of offense and runs this year
and no consistency. If we scored 500 runs in one game we would have a giant run total for the season, but it’s just in one game.
The 2007 Red Sox scored 1 run or less 22 times.
The 2009 Red Sox scored 1 run or less 14 times.
Of the 2007 Red Sox’ runs, 96 of them were scored after the team had already scored 8 runs in the game.
Of the 2009 Red Sox’ runs, 88 of them were scored after the team had already scored 8 runs in the game.
Thank you, come again.
by Ben Buchanan on Nov 20, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Damn you USG with all those.....mmm FACTS!
Rec’d
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
i can manipulate stats too
because 1 run doesn’t win many games (specifically 5 over 2007+2009).
each year, the team had a losing record up until scoring 4 runs/game, so lets use that as our basis.
In 2007, the team scored less than 4 runs 55 times.
In 2009, the team scored less than 4 runs 57 times.
of course that’s just as bogus an argument as yours (getting one run isn’t consistency, we need the consistency to win games which is 4+ runs/game). Looking at the stats I actually agree, I was wrong, offensive consistency is not that huge an issue, but the numbers you used to argue it didn’t prove that at all.
Of course our regular season records are only 1 game off for the two years, just our 2009 postseason was a joke. We wouldn’t have won the division with our 2007 team against the 2009 Yankees, and we are not competing against the 2007 red sox, we are competing against the 2010 yankees. In 2007 we were the best team because the Yankees were weak. If they’re improving we can’t stand pat and perform exactly the same and still expect to compete with them.
No numbers prove it.
Because it’s a non-stat. Consistency is a load of crock just like clutch. A batter doesn’t determine when he slumps, and all batters do slump. This team had a weird thing where they all slumped at the same time around the end of the year (specifically in that @TB @NYY trip) and everyone has labeled them because of those games. Consistency comes with big numbers. It’s just like clutch in that respect. Some guys are considered clutch because their RISP numbers or whatever are high. But I’d bet you everything in my pocket against everything in your pocket that those numbers over the career correlate pretty well to just plain having high season numbers.
by Ben Buchanan on Nov 20, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
no it's not a stat
that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. I don’t see how you can argue that.
Bay, for example is consistent season to season, but not month to month. Look at this lovely chart of his career here: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF&page=0&type=full
This year he was particularly inconsistent, but my point is a .270 hitter who hits .270 through the year is different and more predictable than one who hits .330 for a few months and hits .210 for a couple of months. With players who are very streaky like that, there will be a tendency for there to be periods of time where a lot of people are slumping at once and periods of time where a lot of people are on a roll at once, just because the players are streaky.
You may have missed the part of my post where I agreed with what you were saying, I just didn’t think that the number you used proved anything valuable. You may have also missed the part where I didn’t mention clutch at all…
There is a way to measure consistency. As someone said before, you could basically take the standard deviations of a players weekly wOBA’s, or something like that. But does consistency one year predict consistency the next year? I don’t know. My guess is that you can find some very, very streaky players out there.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
yes!
There are several different ways to measure consistency. This is almost certainly the best. What I (and I assume USG) was saying inarticulately in my post was that there is no one single number which describes how consistent a player will be. It is certainly measurable. This DOES go back to the clutch discussion in that, in the same way, most players are not streaky enough to register year after year as streaky, but some players are able to consistently show themselves as consistent players. It is only useful information for players who are either consistently consistent or consistently unconsistent over the course of a year.
It’s another piece of information which is irrelevant for most players but worth looking at because it IS relevant for some, and it is good information to have ( for example Bay and Youkilis’ career wOBA’s are within .003 points of each other, Bay is slightly higher, however, I think Youk is much more reliable.
Youk has only come on strong recently.
So that’s why his wOBA is lower.
by Ben Buchanan on Nov 21, 2009 3:41 AM EST up reply actions
I have an apple, you have an orange
Player month-to-month consistency is meaningless. A month of numbers is too small for a single player so it is rare to find any hitter who doesn’t look inconsistent on a month-to-month analysis.
The original proposition (yours) was that the TEAM’s offense was inconsistent. USG showed that, using TEAM runs as the measure, the 2009 team scored runs WITHIN the range of 1-8 more often than the 2007 team. I.E. they had fewer outlier games of being either shutout or blowing up for 9+ runs. By that measure, they were more consistent in 2009 than 2007.
At most you can only quibble with the thresholds. You could come back and say that a better test might be between 2 and 7 runs.
Fortunately, I like oranges better anyways.
No i disagree about month-by month consistency. And be clear, I’m not saying that it is accurate to judge a player by how well he does in June of 2008, I’m saying if a player is very streaky (like Bay) they will perform well at times, and perform very poorly at times (for the record, I’m using him a lot as an example, but I love the guy). I’m not saying look at an individual month, I’m saying look at his BA and his wOBA over the season in different time periods and you will see some batters perform consistently over different periods and some don’t (consistency is measurable, it is just not easily able to sum up in one easy to look at stat. I love sabremetric stats, I use them all the time, I only have an issue with people who will take the lowest common denominator of sabremetric stats (IE WAR which says very little about what a team needs in a player) and use that to demonstrate the players value to a club. Details are important too.
Perhaps you misunderstood what I was trying to say originally. Probably my fault, I apologize. What I was saying (which I later retracted after researching more stats!) was that the team was unable to consistently provide enough runs to win. Providing a stat number of how many games they only scored one run and how many games they scored beyond 8 runs is practically completely irrelevant to this. I do stand by the fact that my analysis was more accurate (though as I said in the same post, still completely bunk). I took issue with the thresholds, I took issue with the entire system of analyzing that information.
I know that I agree with what I’ve seen from USG on most every major issue, and I’m sure he would probably back me up that his stats were not any more relevant than the ones I provided (if not, I apologize!).
What I said originally was a false assumption, which I shouldn’t have made (and usually am not prone to, usually I research everything way too much), and I did change my mind about it after looking at the stats. It’s always easy to forget that the beginning half of the season is mainly forgotten by the time you get to the end.
This team had a weird thing where they all slumped at the same time around the end of the year (specifically in that @TB @NYY trip) and everyone has labeled them because of those games.
Thank you. I have been pointing that out elsewhere. Everybody kept pointing at Smoltz & Penny as reasons we lost during that time – it was really the complete disappearance of the offense up & down the lineup.
Wolf9309 is right...
In 2007 there were no teams with the offensive firepower that the 2009 Yankees had and that the 2010 Yankees will have. Papi is right we do need another bat… preferably Adrian Gonzales or another power hitter like him. In 2007 our offense was definitely enough but not now when the league has gotten much better with teams like the Phillies and the Yankees remergence.
WHERE do they add a bat?
The only place where they can significantly improve the offense over the existing team is at CF—and maybe DH, depending on if Ortiz’s 2007 and 2008 woes continue into 2009.
Adding Gonzalez does very little to help the offense, because you’ve lost Lowell’s bat in the process.
And subtracting Ellsbury from the lineup makes the Red Sox a completely one-dimensional offense: it’s bash and mash their way to a win, because that’s about all they’d have. (They would lose in a single stroke three-fifths of their SB’s for last year, and would be tied with the Cubs for fewest SB’s in the league.
The way to improve this team is not with more bats, it’s with better and more reliable pitching.
Adrian Gonzalez' bat is worth about 43 runs over Mike Lowell's.
Make no mistake, it’s a HUGE bump. Especially if we consider defense gained from Youk at 3rd and A Gon at 1st.’
I think if the Sox can keep Westmoreland and Buchholz, they should move heaven and earth to get Gonzalez—with the added stipulation that he agree to a 5+ year deal with the Red Sox.
by Ben Buchanan on Nov 20, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
Those are some big if's there
I doubt they can keep both Westmoreland and Buchholz in a trade for AGon. Basically, they’ll have to empty out a huge tract of the farm system to get him, particularly because Hoyer can’t be seen as making a sweetheart deal with the Sox.
Oh, I know those would be two really big pieces.
But still
Kelly
Anderson
Bowden
One of Reddick/Kalish
One of Doubront/Pimentel
Navarro
We’ve got a lot of pieces.
by Ben Buchanan on Nov 20, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
Yeah the 2009 Yankees had alot of hitters but I think it was a fluke year. Think of all the players that just had one of the best year of their careers (Cano, Damon, Matsui, Swisher, Cabrera). If you think the Yankees are going to hit 915 runs again next year you will be mistaken.
Speaking of 2007, do you know what team that year scored the most runs? The Yankees with 968. What happened to them?
Pitching wins championships. The biggest reason, to me atleast, that the Yankees won this year was because of the playoff format. They were able to only have CC, Burnett, Pettite, and Rivera pitching the ball. That won’t happen next year when the gaps are taken out of the playoff format.
kind of agree
It did look like a lot of Yankees had career years in 2009.
But how much of that was park effect? If the big numbers were primarily due to park effect, then that would mean that, in terms of individual player performance, some of them may NOT have been having ‘career years’.
While I do agree that once one is in the playoffs, pitching in general wins championships (because stop dead pitching tends to shut down good hitting) you do need offense to win the regular season and get IN the playoffs and especially if you want to contend for the division (and home field advantage).
The Red Sox do need to find some offensive pop if for no other reason than to maintain. They could be looking at losing Bay and Ortiz & Lowell are not getting younger.
Good thing we could also be gaining Holliday (who's a year younger)...
Papi and Lowell will be gone (as players, at least) after next year.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
I think we have lost an intimidation factor more than offense.
Probably some clutchness along with that. For years Manny/Papi struck fear in the hearts of teams, that’s gone. The MFY made the sexy moves (minus PB, she is anything but sexy) and put up big numbers so it looks and feels worse than it might be.
But we do need a young slugger…
Release Jason Varitek before ST is over !
Do not pay Jason Bay !!
Trade Buchholz !!!


























