Wagner could accept Arbitration
by ritz on Nov 11, 2009 4:05 PM EST
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per: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/billy-wagner-could-accept-arbitration.html
Billy Wagner's agent Bean Stringfellow says not to rule out his client accepting an arbitration offer from the Red Sox, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Stringfellow said that prior to a recent meeting with his client, he believed there was no chance Wagner would accept. Wagner loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that it's now a possibility. Stringfellow "fully anticipates" an arbitration offer by the Red Sox. Wagner is a Type A free agent, so the Sox will snag two draft picks if he declines the offer and signs elsewhere.
Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned from Stringfellow that six teams called about Wagner so far, all of them interested in him as a closer. The writers noted that the Tigers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, and Braves have the need.
Looks like a win-win here. He accepts and we get another year of what seemed to be a rejuvenated Billy Wagner. Otherwise we go back to the original draft picks outcome. Nice.
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Never gonna happen
Wagner wants to be a closer. The only way that happens in Boston is if Paps gets hurt and Bard gets traded.
I hope he doesn't accept arbitration
He makes way too much money for a set-up man. Wagner made $10.5 million last year. Players rarely get pay cuts in arbitration.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
I'm sure there's a team out there that would trade a B prospect for a "proven" closer for half of what he'll get paid
I still think it’s a win-win
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 11, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
If he accepts arb, the Sox have to pay him
Even if the Sox eat some salary and trade him for a prospect, they lose. The best case scenario is Wagner refusing arb, signing elsewhere, and the Sox netting draft picks.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 11, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Scare Tactic
I think this is mostly from Wagner’s agent knowing he is a Type A and he will land on a better team if we don’t offer Arb.
We're supposed to offer arb
Or else we don’t get picks. He’s supposed to turn it down.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 11, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Any team will think twice about signing him if they have to surrender their #1 pick, and Wagner’s agent knows this. He also knows that the Red Sox do not want to pay Wagner $9MM or so (that’s what he’s set to make in arb. right?) to be their set-up man.
Wagner’s agent is just messing with the Sox, hoping that we won’t offer him arbitration, so that he doesn’t have to turn it down and thus, loose value on the FA market.
The Sox have options
Since Wagner’s was a Mets contract, the Sox aren’t bound by the $10.5 million number. They can offer whatever they think is fair. Wagner’s agent will counter, etc.
Even if Wagners wins in arb., the Sox can cut him in Spring Training and not be on the hook for the arb. contract (that’s why Boras/Tek turned down the arb. offer from the Sox last year).
The only problem if Wagner accepts arb. is that the Sox are out $1 million for the option buyout, they don’t get draft picks, and, if they have to cut him in ST, they don’t have Wagner.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 14, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
Wouldn’t the Sox have to pay some percent of the arbitration amount if they cut him in spring training?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I'm not sure
Arbitration contracts aren’t guaranteed, so I think there’s a set buyout.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 14, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
Not quite "anything they think is fair."
It’s like 80% of previous year’s compensation or 70% of the previous two years’ average, I think.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
According to the Herald's John Tomase:
But this week, Wagner’s agent told the Herald he might accept arbitration because he was comfortable in Boston.
It doesn’t take a cynic to say this one doesn’t ring true. Wagner is 15 saves shy of 400 and spent 15 seasons closing. He has little to gain setting up Jonathan Papelbon [stats]. Also, because the Sox aren’t bound by his current $10.5 million salary, they can offer him anything they want in arbitration.
Suffice to say, it wouldn’t be anywhere near his former option or what he’d get on the market as a closer. That means for Wagner to stay, he’d need to sacrifice money and prestige.
Hard to believe that’s going to happen, which is why the Red Sox should still expect him to decline arbitration.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 14, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
You expect the MSM to research stuff like that?
The club’s salary offer to a player under its control may not be less than 80% of the player’s total compensation from the prior year, and may not be less than 70% of his compensation from 2 years earlier. These rules, however, do not apply to free agents who are offered arbitration.
Read more: http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works#ixzz0WtQz2ZNm
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
I just don't think it's as big a deal if he accepts
If you can get a low B prospect for Wagner by trading him, it’s not worth the $5million or so you’ll have to eat, but it’s not a “loss” compared to simply not offering him arb.
I’m just saying I’ll honestly be surprised if they don’t offer him arb. I think they could get something out of him either way, even if one way is clearly superior to the other way.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 11, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
A low B prospect is a bad result
One of the reasons the Sox took a shot at Wagner was to get two draft picks, which often net more than a “low B prospect.” The Sox would be better off not offering Wagner arb if they end up paying $5 million and only getting a bad prospect.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 12, 2009 7:10 AM EST up reply actions
I look at it more along Sicke's grades
Low B for our system last year, to him, included guys like Oscar Tejada, Bryan Price, and Kyle Weiland. I do not consider them “bad results”. It really depends on how you grade out prospects.
But you are right about having a lot of money tied up in our bullpen if he accepts Arb. That could possibly hinder our payroll, but I’m not convinced we’re going to spend a shit ton of money anyway. Bottom line, I’m still expecting them to offer arb. because i still think Wagner’s bluffing.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 12, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
I hope he’s bluffing.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 12, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I would love that
I would love draft picks, I would love to have Wagner back, any way we win. If he doesn’t come back, we definitely need another lefty anyways.
It would be too much money for a reliever.
But just a one year deal. Not the worst thing in the world.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I want him back next season. More leverage against Papelbon
If he accepted, I’d have to think there becomes a more realistic chance of Papelbon being dealt.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
Jason Bay is not WERTH it
Paps is younger, better, and cheaper
If we add Wagner at $10 million, it hurts the team’s ability to add payroll in the form of more important players.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 11, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
It will either strengthen the bullpen or the Sox won't offer if he really may accept.
I think they will offer, because that was the Sox requirement when the hiccup of the trade went down.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
Jason Bay is not WERTH it
That's not how it works
If a player has filed for free agency, his former club must offer him arbitration by December 1. If the player accepts by December 7, the player is placed back on the team’s roster, and the two sides may continue to negotiate or go to an arbitration hearing. If the free agent player declines the arbitration offer, the sides may continue to negotiate.
The club’s salary offer to a player under its control may not be less than 80% of the player’s total compensation from the prior year, and may not be less than 70% of his compensation from 2 years earlier. These rules, however, do not apply to free agents who are offered arbitration
If the Sox didn’t offer arb., they wouldn’t be eligible for compensation. The worst case scenario would be Wagner accepting arb. Then, the Sox would be stuck with an aging, high priced player.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 11, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
"An aging, high priced player?" Oh noes!
He’ll make our team of naive, neophytes – Varitek, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew – look noobish by comparison!
Worst case scenario is him getting a huge arbitration award, sucking and then hitting the DL (so we can’t trade him for anything good midseason). I expect he’ll land somewhere else, draft pick compensation be damned.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
$8-$10 million tied up in a set-up relief pitcher is the worst case scenario
The Sox have around $115-$117 million already tied up—and that doesn’t include a LF or bench. Billy Wagner hasn’t been worth as much as 2.4 WAR since 2003. In ‘03, he threw 86 innings. There’s no way he’ll throw more than 60-65 IP, so he won’t even be a 2 WAR player. $8-$10 million is way too much to pay for a 38-year old relief pitcher. Even if Wagner pitches like he did in his prime, he will not be worth the salary he’d get through arb.
In the best case scenario, the Sox get picks. The only other decent scenario is the Sox don’t offer arb and are able to sign Wagner to a reasonable contract, and he pitches well for 60 or so innings. Everything else is bad for the Sox—even if Wagner is lights out.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 12, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
+1
I think fans have the view that it is not my money, so it does not matter. It matters a lot. Aside from not replenishing the farm, it really hampers the ability to deal with the LF situation. The team obviously has finite $$ to deal with, and are close to that limit due to the salary structure that BT outlined about a month ago. This would be bad. Very bad.
in any case
it’s a slight gamble, but I feel like he’s been clear enough that he wants to close that no matter what he says, he’s not taking arbitration. I think the two picks we could get for him are worth the gamble. Chances are if he does accept, he gets traded to someone who will be willing to pay him to close and we still don’t lose out on the deal.
I think you're over-reacting.
Billy Wagner is probably worth right around $5M to this team. So we would be looking at a net waste of $3-5M. That sucks, but it really is not going to cripple our payroll flexibility. If he pitches 60 high-leverage innings he would be an important part of the team.
That being said, I think he wants to close and is going to refuse arbitration.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Add the $3-5 million to the $9 million still due Lugo, Tek's $3 million, etc.
The bad contracts add up.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 12, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
It's true.
So we are risking about $5M for a chance at two draft picks.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
According to Epstein, they would be open to him coming back, but, "we would have to restructure a few things with other pieces of the club to be able to afford that luxury of having him with what he’s likely to make next year in a non-closing role for us."
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
If they could bring Wagner back at middle reliever money, that’d be fine.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 12, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
My point is the Sox won’t offer it if they think he will accept.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
Jason Bay is not WERTH it
They have to offer it or they don't get compensation
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 11, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
I know that
But if they think he will accept then I do not think they will offer.
Hey Tek...Screw you
Brandon Webb in 2010
Jason Bay is not WERTH it
You guys are both correct.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
the fact is
according to his agent, Bean Stringfellow (i just LOVE that name), at least, there have been 6 teams calling asking about his services as a closer. We all know he wants to close and that’s why he’s playing. I’ll be amazed if he accepts arbitration- I think he’s just trying to get them not to offer it in order to push his value up.
If he does, there are worse problems we could have than an overpriced, great setup man. If he did stay, I wouldn’t be shocked (depending on how Bard is progressing) to see Papelbon traded around the deadline and Wagner our closer for the second half of the year- although the market is pretty flooded with closers right now, so that of course depends on what needs are like around the ASB.
Seems like this will be a game of chicken...
But why wouldn’t Wagner just accept arbitration if it’s offered, and continue to make threats in an attempt to avoid having it offered? Really no way we can win this one.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
sure there's a way we can win this one
we offer arbitration and he turns it down. Which is still the most likely scenario.
If we don’t offer arbitration, then the trade wasn’t worth it, I think it’s worth the slight risk that he accepts (in which case we either spend a few million too much on a great reliever or trade him for a prospect anyways). I don’t think it’s anything to stress about too much.
But why would he do that?
As soon as arbitration is offered, he basically loses all value to other teams because of the draft pick compensation.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
He wants to close.
With a few more years of closing, he has a chance at a top 3 spot all-time in saves. The guy has made $70M in his career. Maybe money isn’t the most important thing? I dunno.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Yeah, but if he wants to close, wouldn't he make himself as available as possible?
So he’d avoid attaching the baggage of pick-sacrificing at all costs, right? If a team needs a closer, they can get one as good as or better than Wagner without giving up picks, I would assume.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
The pick-sacrificing is not his choice; it’s the Sox choice.
The preference for the Sox is probably: Sox offer arb., Wagner refuses>No arb.>Sox offer arb., Wagner accepts.
We don’t quite know Wagner’s prefernces: No arb.>?>?
It’s a pretty typical game theory problem. Wagner knows the Sox preferences, while the Sox are not clear on Wagner’s. The conlcusion is that, no matter Wagner’s prefernces, he will try to convince the Sox that he will accept arbitration (the Sox least preferable outcome). If the Sox are convinced, they will decide to not offer arbitration. This would be the only way that Wagner could achieve his most preferable outcome. Either way, it tells us nothing about Wagner’s true preferences (assuming he is willing to lie).
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Nov 14, 2009 5:00 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm saying that Wagner would be stupid to refuse arbitration.
The pick-sacrificing would remove his value for everyone but the Sox, who could offer him far less than he’d get in arbitration. There’s no reason for him to decline arbitration if the Sox offer it. Fortunately for Wagner, that means the Sox probably don’t want to risk it, which would make him far easier to sign for everyone else.
Either he gets overpaid by us, or we get zilch in return for letting him go.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
I'm not sure that's true.
He has stated in the past that he wants to close. He might be willing to sacrifice money for the opportunity to close. Also, he might want the stability of a multi-year deal.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
There has to be something I'm missing.
The only way he has the chance to sacrifice money is to not not be offered arbitration, since he’d either get the arbiter’s amount (accepting arb) or have no value because of the picks (declining arb). Either option you mentioned would only be available through other teams, since we don’t need a closer and aren’t stupid enough to give him a multi-year deal.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Basically, I think his preference goes like this:
No arb offered > arb offered
The first means he has no baggage and can sign for whatever he wants. The latter means he either makes a load of money and has a minor role on the Sox, or he chooses to decline it and becomes very unattractive to other teams. Even if he lowered his price, I don’t think a team is going to see him as valuable enough to warrant the pick sacrificing. And he can’t get a multi-year deal without being able to find a team that wants to sign him to begin with.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
The preferences are correct.
THe question is what would he do if we do offer the arbitration. Would he accept or decline? If he declines, as you say, his value is depressed because of the type A status. So if he declines, he is most likely “sacrificing money” in exchange for a closer’s role and a multi-year deal. However, we also should note that he is likely more valuable to a team that needs a closer. So to the Sox he may only be worth $4M per year, but another team might hand him a 2 year $16M, or something like that. In that case, he might be able to get similar money and a closer role.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
True.
That’s what I was forgetting, the difference in value for other teams caused by roster.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
That's why I think he's playing chicken
to convince the sox not to offer arbitration, so that his value increases.
I think he’s been very clear that he wants to retire soon and the only reason he is still playing is because he wants to reach that saves mark- he had all kinds of quotes about that when joining the red sox (NOT as a closer), so I think he’ll be willing to work for dirt cheap for somebody who will give him a chance to get his saves and is willing to give up a draft pick, and even though, the market has a lot with closer potential, the fact that he’ll have to be willing to take a fairly low contract is gonna be appealing to some teams (especially when he was as dominating as he was in his return)
Sing and Trade?
I don’t know where Billy Wagner would be willing to go, but all this talk about Lowell, Papelbon, and prospects for Cabrera dosen’t make sense to me. Yes the bullpen is deep, but giving up on a proven closer like Papelbon is stupid. Sing Wagner and reshape this trade. I would like to see Cabrera in a Sox uniform, but not for Papelbon.
fortunately for you
that was the dumbest trade proposal ever. It would have involved Detroit taking on more salary for 2010 than they have now, while giving them players they don’t need (they already have an injured 3b) and giving up one of the best hitters in the game. And no, Wagner wouldn’t make it likely either.
FWIW Cabrera’s value is much higher than any reliever.
wolf9309
What do you mean, they have already been talking about the lowell, papelbon, and lars anderson with a pitching prospect for Cabrera. If they traded Cabrera they need some one to step in at 3rd for the time being. I guess they have Inge, but that was the proposed trade. I see it as all short term contracts which Detroit would like because they are trying shed salary. Cabrera’s contract is huge. Wagner is the only hypothetical in that trade, go look at ESPN.They take on like 2 million extra for one year, and then unload a long term contract, so they don’t really take on salary over time.
by Brian Daubach on Nov 18, 2009 3:38 AM EST up reply actions
Who has been talking about that?
The trade offer you originally cited was proposed by Ken Rosenthal of FOX. Most of these proposed trades are media creations.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 18, 2009 7:24 AM EST up reply actions
This
Ken Rosenthal is a moron. He says things like that which will excite the huge market teams to get fans excited about something that would never happen so that they pay more attention to him. This wasn’t a rumor, it was just something Rosenthal proposed.
I thought Cabrera was playing 1B now?
And I’d asume Lowell would play 3B for them.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
A "baseball expert" was talking about this trade.
And he was talking out of his ass.
The tigers need short term payroll relief, not long term. After 2010, they have about $40MM coming off the books, so if anything they want long backloaded contracts. Also Cabrera plays first, not third.
And even though they only take on $2MM in the proposed scenario, they would want a net loss of about $15MM if they were to move Cabrera, not a gain of 2.
So basically, this trade only makes sense in a baseball video game, in which the total value of the players being traded is about the same. In real life, this deal, or any similar deal, has no chance of happening.
Now that Rosenthal's on Twitter, he's going to get a nice shock from sabermetricians.
Should be some nice comic relief after school each day.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
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