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The Return of Jonathan Papelbon

Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon pumps his fist after getting Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera to fly out to end their baseball game with a 6-5 win at Fenway Park in Boston, Monday Aug. 10, 2009.   Papelbon got the save, his 28th for the season.(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

More photos » Charles Krupa - AP

6 months ago: Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon pumps his fist after getting Detroit Tigers' Miguel Cabrera to fly out to end their baseball game with a 6-5 win at Fenway Park in Boston, Monday Aug. 10, 2009. Papelbon got the save, his 28th for the season.(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

On July 28, the Red Sox lost to the Oakland Athletics 9-8. For us Sox fans, this could not have been a surprise, even though the team had gone into the 9th with a 7-4 lead. After all, the team's once dominant closer, Jonathan Papelbon, had looked anything but for much of the season. Sure, it was only his third blown save, but the way he was pitching those numbers were clearly unsustainable. Papelbon had seemingly made it his mission to make every save a dramatic one as he would pull such feats as loading the bases with 0 outs before striking out the next 3, or letting the tieing run get to 3rd with 1 out and stranding him there.

 

Papelbon's ERA was great, living always slightly above or below 2, but his WHIP was sky high and it wasn't hard to see the problem: walks. In 69 innings in 2008, Papelbon walked all of 8 batters, and never in his career (excepting 2005) had his BB/9 been above 2.31. In 2009, things were different, as through the end of June he had walked 17 batters in only 34 innings, nearly doubling his highest rate.

 

Speculation ran rampant. Was Papelbon saving his arm for the postseason? For a future contract? Did he simply lack focus in non-save situations? For whatever reason, Papelbon was just not the same. He still struck out plenty of guys, he just didn't seem to have that pinpoint control anymore.

 

And then the old Papelbon returned.

Star-divide

That game in July? That was Papelbon's last blown save. Since then, he has given up walks in only 2 games out of 23 (3 in one against the Toronto Blue Jays). In the 25 innings he's pitched in those games, he has struck out 31 batters and given up only 15 hits. His WHIP, for those not doing the math as they go, stands at .76 over that stretch, and his ERA at 1.44.

 

So what was the problem with Papelbon? Is he really that much worse when the game isn't close? Was he really trying to save himself for a future contract? If you ask Paps, he'll tell you it was his delivery. He had changed it at the beginning of the season, and was having trouble repeating it consistently. The biggest casualty of the change was his splitter, a pitch that nearly disappeared as the year went on, and one he now claims to be much more comfortable with. Now that he's able to repeat his delivery, Papelbon has regained his control in a hurry.

 

For a playoff-bound Red Sox team, this has to be a huge relief. After all, since 2007, the Sox have been able to play 8-inning postseason games. Papelbon is perfectly aware that the reputation he earns in October is the one that will stick to his name well after his career is over, and if he's been a dominant regular season closer, he has been untouchable in the playoffs. In 25 innings, Papelbon has allowed 10 hits, 6 walks, recorded 22 strikeouts, and let a total of 0 men cross home plate.

 

For the Red Sox, there are a number of question marks going into the playoffs, but the ninth inning couldn't be any more simple.

0 recs  |  Comment 25 comments |

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im getting pretty excited

for post season baseball, as well as all the positive things i’ve been reading on here lately. Much better than the Debbie Downers from last week.

keep up the good pieces guys

Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.

by DougieWentDeep on Oct 5, 2009 8:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope we lock up Papelbon long term this winter.

Not popular opinion, but he’s proven he can do it year after year.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 5, 2009 8:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He does want,

but for top dollar.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well the Sox should reward him

he has meant quite a bit to them over the last few seasons.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 5, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which they have awarded him 7.75 million dollars for.

That’s the worst way to run a team: sign someone for what they have done and not what they will do. Sure, he’s gonna be good, but a closer doesn’t add that much more value than a standard pen arm, and breaking the bank on one is usually a bad idea.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

but I am not in favor of shopping him now. He is still cheap enough, and quite effective, and I don’t think he would be such a valuable trade chip (closers are usually not). Keep him now and let him walk later and get picks if you can.

by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds about right.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds right to me too.

Earlier, when I wasn’t sure he’d get back in shape, I was for shopping him while he had value. Now, I’ll take my picks.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had suggested pitching him into FA when his arm falls off earlier in the season

but the more I think of it, his value is pretty remarkable.

Have we forgotten closer by committee?

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 5, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

But good-not-great closers can be found much cheaper, and with that extra money we could upgrade our SP or lineup so the game would not be so close to matter in the first place.

Also, Bard will be awesome.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we would miss Papelbon greatly.

my two cents. I think you undervalue the closer role.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 5, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you overvalue the difference between a good and great closer.

And I also think Bard will be great.

How much is Paps gonna cost? K-Rod money seems a good baseline. That’s $10m for multiple years on one of the least consistent positions on an individual year-to-year basis. Closers FALL APART with regularity.

Better to have a good guy going year-to-year than a great guy locked up for a long time and a lot of money. Otherwise we could be paying the equivalent of Eric Gagne 8-digits when we could use that to get a good SS.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd sure like to have a good SS

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 6, 2009 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good post

It is interesting (not overly comforting) how the fortunes of the Sox pen other than Paps and Paps himself have sort of flipped-flopped in reliability during the two halves of the season. The only other member of the Sox pen (save Wagner who has not pitched many innings for the Sox) who has looked good in the last 2 months is Saito.

One little correction-making your story even better-wasn’t the score 7-4 going into the 9th, and then Paps gave up 3 to tie?

by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Paps ego has gotten in the way this year. Its his pen and so on. Bard will be good in a couple years but he’s not ready yet. As much as I’d love to see Paps stay I think he’ll want far too much. I say see how next year starts off and see if Bard can be ready or if Many Del returns to form. If the answer to either is yes then trade Paps at the deadline for what you can get. Draft choices are too unpredictable and too far in the future. You could always try to convince Wagner to stay on too and hope one of the 3 comes around.

by Jillian on Oct 5, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

MDC is currently "in form"

His only form is inconsistency.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not likely

He wants to close, will be a FA, and Paps is younger, cheaper, and better.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 6, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe not cheaper for long

"Potential just means you haven’t done sh## yet"

by willgarr15 on Oct 6, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Sox have Paps for two more years. If he is too expensive after 2 years, they’ll let him walk and take the picks. Let’s see how much FAs make this offseason. The economy is still bad.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 6, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Definitely not cheaper for long

Here’s what i see happening. Of course i want to keep Paps cause he’s been great but if he stays chances are Wagner leaves. If Paps leaves (knock on wood), then Wagner’s best option would be to stay and close for one of the best teams in the majors and Bard will continue to be groomed (and close himself because i dont think they would want to wear Wagner down)

by qthaballa on Oct 6, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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