Bloody Sox Laundry - JD Drew is Better Than You
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 5:00 AM EDT
in Daily Links
47 comments
J.D. Drew not getting his due - BostonHerald.com
I love when the media comes to sudden realizations about stuff. I mean, if they talk to Theo, you'd think they'd pick up on more stuff like this, especially when Epstein is so blatant:
Theo: We Ignore RBI In The Front Office - The Joy of Sox
I propose that the n00b test this postseason be mentioning WINZ or RBI as evidence of a player's skill. Agree?
On a related note, I really don't get how people can think JD Drew is worse than Bay. The most obvious difference between the two is their salaries, but that really works against the person who brings it up, simply because Bay is going to join the $10+ million group this coming offseason, and in a much worse economic climate. Combine that with the fact that the current contracts were signed at different points in the careers of the two players, and you can pretty much dismiss that point.
The next argument against JD is that he doesn't hit as many homers. There's no arguing against that fact, but the underlying point that is supposed to be made by it is that JD isn't as good an offensive player. To that, I call BS (not myself).
After the jump, the argument continues, and I finish up with some nice extra links - they're like the sprinkles on a bowl of ice cream. The spicy cinnamon ones that make you forget that you were just shoveling frozen cream down into your mouth fast enough to cause a vision-crossing brain freeze.
I'm going to assume there are readers who aren't up to date on the latest sabermetric stats, so I'll include as many different stats as possible in this comparison. I'll even do it in graph form, in case there's someone else like me who views Jed and graphs in the same light.
First, let's compare their batting average. I'm choosing the age-matching graphs to eliminate any concerns about aging:
Neither have ever been particularly amazing, but they both appear to end at-bats in either an out or a hit at similar rates. Of course, that really doesn't mean much - walks are basically as valuable as singles, and they take more pitches, on average. So let's look at OBP:
Remember, two years ago, JD's kid was having medical issues for the majority of the season. It would appear to me that JD is at least slightly better than Bay at not making outs, with both being well above average. Now let's see how valuable those hits are, bases wise.
Well, JD's not been very consistent, but we can see that he's probably a little below Bay's ability to reach more bases per AB. Of course, neither OBP or SLG will give us anything close to a complete picture - for that, we can start at OPS.
... Hmm... Fangraphs doesn't have an OPS graph. Perhaps that's because it is beyond imagination that someone could consider the two to be equally valuable? If you must add them, OBP should be given roughly twice the weight (actually closer to 1.7, based on The Book). Doing that gives you a very rough estimate of the stat that I prefer to use to judge a player's offensive abilities, wOBA. If you don't know what that is, I'll wait for you to utilize the closest search engine.
[SB Nation would prefer you direct your browser to Yahoo! at this point]
Back yet? Have a reasonable grasp on what I'm about to talk about? If not, please turn in your Sox gear join your Luddite friends (Sorry, boss). If you do, prepare to be underwhelmed:
So they've basically been about the same. Not a shock, given that they've been about equal in everything else. Of course, there's the basic fundamentals...
Discipline check:
JD's calmer than Bay. Don't you wish they both were a little more outspoken and played with more heart?
FIELDING:
JD's been a +6.0 UZR/150 fielder overall for his career, while Bay has been -7.5. (If you want to question UZR, wait a few seconds). Basically, whatever seperation Bay earned through batting, JD more than makes up for as a fielder. This is also the argument for signing Holliday over Bay, given the same chance at either.
Overall, JD Drew is clearly the better player. If you want to argue health, fine, but that's not a skill and that doesn't make him any less talented. Besides, he's managed to compete with Bay in terms of value so far, even in less games.
Back to the links now:
UZR: 2008 to 2009 - FanGraphs Baseball
I fear this will lead to questioning wOBA, but hey, I'm not to decide how people interpret the links.
Accounting Dept. - The Boston Globe
Let’s check the year-end ledgers - plus side and minus side - for the Sox and both leagues
Buchholz excited to finally be a part of Red Sox’ postseason plans - The Providence Journal
Buchholz is expected to start the third game of the playoffs, scheduled for next weekend at Fenway. It’s a gratifying moment for a pitcher who started the year in the minor leagues, and had to pitch his way into the majors. With only a half-season to prove himself, pitching well enough that the team would anoint him a playoff starter was high on his list of goals. He appears to have achieved it.
Delcarmen in pre-game wreck on I-93 - Clubhouse Insider
Delcarmen lucky - Clubhouse Insider
Even though MDC had some issues, that would have been tragic.
Bud Selig's Squirmy Defense of the Steroid Era - Fenway West
Speaking of squirmy:
Who Most Deserved to be Fired this Week? - Beyond the Box Score
CHOICE 4, AND IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE.
30 Largest Latin American Signing Bonuses of All Time - Beyond the Box Score
Earliest Sox signing is about a third of the way down. Good resource to compare any new signings to.
Continue the debate about JD and Bay, comment on another link, share your own, or just get hyped for the postseason.
0 recs |
47 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
"I felt like I was in a movie"
I know exactly what Manny means. That’s the same way I felt when my school bus crashed in middle school.
by Black Yen Power G-Man Spy on Oct 5, 2009 8:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
JD Drew is Better Than You
Yes, but can he golf?
by NG on Oct 5, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
JD Drew is Better Than You II
eh, I’m prettier and have a better smile.
NG with some humor —as rare as a JD Drew smile!
"You know," Girardi said, shrugging his shoulders, "it didn't work."
( Joe Girardi on pitching to Manny Ramirez with first base open)
by MassGal on Oct 5, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW, when do I get to show you my picture for your next year's logo?
by NG on Oct 5, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fire away.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't buy the "UZR is good because it fluctuates less than wOBA" deal.
The nature of UZR is such that it is imperfect based on fields. It is also the type of stat that simply shouldn’t have that much fluctuation if a player maintains similar speed and fielding skill, but which will vary largely based on random happenstance just depending on what chances they get over the course of a long season.
wOBA also has such fluctuations, but also has backup stats to help determine if someone’s stats are being negatively influenced by chance. BABIP, LD%, etc. all help neutralize the “luck” side of things. UZR has no such peripherals to help it. It’s the best we’ve got, but it’s not a matter of gospel, to say the least.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup.
Agree 100%. When do the Dewan +/- numbers come out?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When do they become free?
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would add that I think infield numbers are much better.
Due to the standardized sizes and the like.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i also want to add they did it for all fielders
UZR seems to more inaccurate for OF
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 5, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The biggest thing you missed in your comparison was games played.
JD Drew simply does not play full seasons. 140 games out of the guy is an absolute god-send. Jason Bay does play full years. By almost all rate stats JD is as good or a better offensive player, but those extra 15 or 20 games per year that we get from Jason Bay are important. (Now, maybe I should note that on a team like the Sox, where the 4th OF’er is generally above replacement, missing games isn’t as bad. But still).
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I think he was getting at the fact that Drew has exceeded Bay in WAR over his time with the Sox (perhaps not precisely, as Bay came during the part of last season when Drew was mostly hurt and not playing), and WAR accounts for time played. Essentially, if you take Bay in 2008/2009 his WAR is less than Drew 2008/2009. However, this also is just a measure of WAR, something that can be debated in terms of meaning.
I do think that Drew is not fully appreciated by Sox fans. The reasons for this that I see are:
a)Not emotional/colorful.
b)Fielding is harder to appreciate.
c)Does not have great power.
d)Bad first impression.
In the case of (d) I think all sports fans make up their minds on first look, and it takes a lot to change that. However, Drew has played quite well as a Red Sox player after 2007, combining excellent offensive numbers, strong defense and a good baseball sense. He is quietly one of the best baserunners on the team (a team where a player like Pedroia makes about 15 baserunning gaffes a year), has by far the best throwing arm in the outfield, and has had more big hits in the postseason over his time here than anyone. These last three things are not even measured by things like WAR of course ;).
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
All true.
For me, I will always love JD for that GS off Fausto Carmona (I think it was him) in the Cleveland series in 2007.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on (e) below
And yes-that was Drew against Carmona. He also had the big bomb off K-rod that won game 2 of the ALDS last year, and both the big HR and game winning hit in that amazing comback against the Rays in game 5 of the ALCS last year.
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he's awesome.
I think one of the issues is that when Drew is playing well, he makes baseball look absolutely effortless. But when he’s struggling, it looks like he’s not even trying. Compare that to Pedroia or Youk, for whom the whole game can look like a struggle all of the time, and its easy to see why the casual (or ignorant) fan overlooks JD.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would also add:
e) Tendency for the called third strike/ AB’s where he doesn’t ever swing.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but both look horrible quite often
Drew seems to be the MLB Leader in Strike Outs looking and Jason Bay cant hit good breaking balls and quite often looks like a single-A player when striking out on a Ball in the dirt
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 5, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My biggest qualm with JD Drew is..
his contract. He is a very good fielder, he has great OPS, but his contract always bothered me. Manny’s contract bothered me, but Manny scared the crap out of pitchers, which is worth a couple million in my book.
by superferret on Oct 5, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
Manny made much much more than JD, especially when you factor in the fact that he got that contract at a time when no outfielders got money like that. Drew makes far less than Manny. Now, it is true that Manny’s offensive impact was greater, but I don’t see what is comparable about the contracts. Drew has not been dramatically overpaid. In fact, it is not so clear that he has even been overpaid at all. Maybe a bit, but not anything out of wack like Julio Lugo or something. Yet I hear fans bring up his contract all the time. Put it this way, in 2009
Drew-WAR=4.6
Teixeira WAR=5.4
Not so big a difference. Teix makes nearly 10 million more a year than Drew, and I am sure if he played for the Sox no one would say “gee-that guy is overpayed!”
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could add EqBRR into RAR, if you wanted a better estimation of his baserunning skills.
Just subtract the value from the SB/CS numbers, which are in wOBA.
And arm is in UZR.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it?
they are always changing these damn things on these sites! have you seen the degree to which fangraphs and statcorners tRAs differ? Confusing…
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because they use different data sources.
tRA is all about how each ball in play is scored (fly, line, ground, etc) – it’s going to vary based on what data it’s given.
Arm is definitely in UZR though – this is a pretty good breakdown: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/the_uzr_era.php
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
I understand they use different data (and I think different park adjustments?) what bothers me is just how much they can differ for the same player. If the metric is this sensitive, how useful is it? As crude as FIP is, at least it is robust.
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, you can choose to use only one source, for consistency...
Or you can use all of them, for accuracy.
Or you could wait until the Hit F/X and Field F/X systems go completely public, at which point all of the data will be much more accurate.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not consistency-
if a metric is supposed to be measuring the same thing but is so sensitive to input it is not so useful, I would think. I like the idea of tRA more than FIP, I just am not sure how well it is describing anything…
by Buzzy on Oct 6, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then you'd probably be better served waiting for the cameras...
At which point all of it will be done much more accurately and precisely.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 6, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinda what I was getting at with this:
Overall, JD Drew is clearly the better player. If you want to argue health, fine, but that’s not a skill and that doesn’t make him any less talented. Besides, he’s managed to compete with Bay in terms of value so far, even in less games.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I guess you did mention it.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
@ bs.uf
cause you are our big Ellsbury critic:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/10/5/1069651/the-not-so-big-bossman-jr-graph-of#storyjump
Third best wOBA of all AL CF is not to shabby.
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 5, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True
and that is a good thing. But his fielding numbers are so horrific that it (for this year) negates his value. He is the worst (I think) of all center fielders in the AL by UZR. I think the good news is that we hopefully can expect this kind of offense from him moving forward. If he can improve his defense he will be a force.
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One other thing
I think a good argument can be made for Ellsbury being the best CF in the AL by offense this year when you factor in the SBs. He steals at a high percent and has 70 SBs. Hunter and Span (the 2 CFs ahead of him by wOBA) are not really big SB threats. If you crudely converted his leadoff singles and BBs into doubles while subtracting leadoff singles and BBs for caught stealings his effective wOBA (not advocating this metric-but just for the sake of argument) would probably be higher than Hunter/Span.
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if i'm not mistaken fangraph wOBA includes SB
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 5, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
But then there’s the other running stuff, and he’s only 5.35 runs above average by EqBRR.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a great offensive year for Jacoby.
And I think he has established himself as a legitimately good lead-off hitter, but that does not mean many of us were wrong to question his spot atop the line-up early in the season. He went on to get on base at .355, which is right about what people around here were saying we would need from him to keep him up there.
In terms of his fielding value, it is just really hard for me to wrap my head around the idea that he was 30 runs worse this year than last. That is just too big a jump for me. Coco was also 30 runs worse in 2008 than 2007; it is just perplexing.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is perplexing
but even last year it seemed by eye that he is often off balance and gets bad reads. He does seem worse (anecdotally) this year.
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should also menton,
that he played a lot in the corners last year and got much of his positive UZR values in RF and LF. But he was still a positive in CF.
Could his range in the corners have hurt Coco’s UZR in CF? Is UZR a zero-sum game for OF’ers? Meaning, does it measure whether the out was made, or whether a specific players made the out? I guess I don’t really know enough about UZR to make any kind of judgement. But again, 30 runs worse one year later? From both of our CF’s in consecutive years? Just bizarre.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 5, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR measures balls that fall in, and balls that player X makes a play on.
A ball that player Y makes a play on has no effect on player X, except that if he could have made a play on it you can consider it a negative. So presumably a high-range CF would take away UZR from high range RF and LF since they take priority in the field, but not vice versa since any plays the CF can’t necessarily make a play on but a high-range RF can would only have so good a chance of being a catch. So eh.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is to say
That diving plays and the like to grab balls in range of high-range corner OFs but out of range of low-range corner OFs usually have relatively little effect on a player’s UZR.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 5, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i knew guys would come with defense
I just remember the Ellsbury post by bs.uf with “Ells suck” under Jacoby’s picture and thats a big exaggeration. He is 3rd best in .wOBA, 13th or second to last place in UZR only to Wells and 8/14 in WAR with 2.2 ,better than Adam Jones (who would have thought that).
All im trying to say is that Jacoby is a decent player who plays for the league minimum and gives us something no other Red Sox player has: Speed. Every other player namely Pedroia and Drew have struggled mightily in that role. So something that bothered us in the first half is now fixed. Be happy and appreciate that and dont just pick on his flaws. As you probably noticed i like the kid. At the very least he makes the Red Sox more fun to watch
by German Red Sox Fan on Oct 5, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
my point was not to be negative, in fact it was meant to be more positive than this. He is (as he has played mostly in the second half) an excellent offensive CF. This was not true nearly as much when the complaining was going on. Moving forward if he cements this kind of offense or even improves then that is great for the Sox. His defense must improve, but he has the physical tools to make that happen.
by Buzzy on Oct 5, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He just needs to make better reads.
I kinda had to make the post a little shocking to get my point across.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Span beat him. I still like Span better.
@bs_uf15bosox9be The Original Gameday; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 5, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Team Play
Who cares about contracts, surely the Redsox care about one thing NOW and that bring another WS to Beantown, we will deal with contracts after the rings are given out!GO SOX NATION!!!!!!!
by rudster on Oct 7, 2009 7:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
