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After LF - it's Shortstop - What's the best option for the Sox at the 6


From the '09 Roster we have 3 candidates:


Alex Gonzalez won't be getting a $6m option picked up

Nick Green is a utility player at best

Jed Lowrie needs to stay healthy for a full season, and prove himself at the MLB level.

Outside the organization, the FA market is weak - it would be more likely to trade for a mid level SS:

J.J. Hardy and Bobby Crosby are two names I've heard could be moved and not cost too much.  Crosby is a serious injury risk and both are somewhat inconsistent.

Jack Wilson can't be too expensive to pry out from the M's either - though given his age this is a short term solve.

It also seems the Angels settled on Aybar @ SS, perhaps Brandon Wood, could be available.  Though this is not a proven answer it does provide a potential power bat at a key position.  Unclear what the cost of acquiring him would be though relief pitching would seem to be an area of interest for the Angels.

Thoughts on the best option here?   I know there are a lot of Hardy supports out there, what's the right amount to give up for him and is he a long term answer?

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I might get bashed for this....

But I think we should keep Gonzalez. When we brought in Renteria and then Lugo, the thought was we could live with the errors and the poor defense because their bats were so important. I think that shortstop is way too important defensively to ignore that side of things. Sure Alex Gonzalez is a career .247 hitter, but isn’t his defense worth the runs he saves as well? I think they should pick up his option.

B-B-B-Byrd Byrd Byrd, Byrd is the Wyrd!"

by willgarr15 on Oct 26, 2009 5:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not quite.

He should be roughly a +6 defender next season (assuming the volatile Error component of UZR doesn’t change too much). He is DEFINITELY below average as a batter, and he will most likely lose whatever positive fielding value he creates. He could easily be re-signed for less than the option, and, of course, he will be backing up Jed. :D

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SS

I would be fine with keeping Gonzo but not at close to 6 million dollars. He is far far less valuable than that. I like the idea of Hardy. He had a terrible year last year, but he is always pretty relaible in the field and has proven to have some pop in his bat. He is young. I am not sure at all what it would take to get him.

As for Lowrie, I understand and agree that he needs to prove he can stay healthy. That said, the wrist think really seems like a fluke injury that will heal fine by all accounts. We should really be very eager to see him as our starting SS. He has been great defensively in his time in the majors. While it is a small sample-if it plays out he is much better defensively than Gonzo. And if his first year and minor league #s are any indication, he is much better with the bat too. To put it in perspective, he would have been the same WAR as Erick Aybar was this year if you translate his 08 season into a full year. And Aybar is a rising star at SS. I hope he can stay healthy and prove all the doubters wrong.

by Buzzy on Oct 26, 2009 5:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I also agree

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 26, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"We should really be very eager to see him as our starting SS."

I’m TRYING, dammit. ;)

Also, the WAR you are extrapolating to compare with Aybar’s includes the broken wrist time, so he could be easily be better.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm really more interested

in seeing lowrie replace lowell at 3B after this year. but for this year, totally he should be SS. just don’t think he’ll be there his whole career.

by revived0103 on Oct 27, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

I would have to agree with you.

by BoSox4Lyfe on Oct 28, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jack Wilson

The M’s have a team option for him at $8.4M next year. Anyone heard whether they are picking it up?

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 26, 2009 8:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think its too early to project too much with Jed

I’ll agree that Lowrie has potential and I also like what we’ve seen so far – but projecting him into any cateogry, Aybar or where ever, is tough for me given his time up in the Show.

Regardless of what you think of his potential I think it’s more then necessary for the Sox to go out and get a SS as competition and depth if not an out right starter.

Hardy was sent down to the minors this year, not a great sign – though that does mean he could come cheaper then last year. Also keeps his MLB rights out for this year so he’s under contract for 2 yrs.

Bleacher report clowns in Milwaukee were thinking it would be Hardy and Hamel for Buchholz, Bowden and another arm. THAT, is funny.

by JonnyNYC on Oct 26, 2009 9:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you are forgetting

that Jed did play a fair bit as a rookie in 08. He had 308 PAs, and put up quite encouraging offensive #s (750 OPS/25 doubles) and that was playing throw a painful wrist that really hindered his hitting from the left side. His defense, between 08/09 has been flawless. Aybar’s sample of similar quality is only 2 times as large. before this year Aybar was horrible offensively (barely 300 wOBA). In the minors Lowrie ut up wOBAs of 0.406 and 0.378 in AA/AAA. Aybar never did that, despite the fact that his AAA ball was in the PCL-notorious for inflating offense. It is fair to say that Jed’s offensive potential is superior to Aybar’s, and that Aybar has only had one full year of quality offense, while Jed has 1had a half- year, as a rookie and with a bad wrist, that was comparable. These are not big samples for either, but we have nearly as much telling us about Jed as a shortstop as we do in positive telling us about Clay Buchholz as a starter. I think if Jed is healthy, and does not average out as a 750 OPS shortstop with excellent defense, that would be a dissapointement given his AA/AAA/majors numbers. Even that is very, very valuable and far better than Gonzo.

by Buzzy on Oct 26, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and

please excuse the typos-1 finger typing in the dark=more errors than usual (and usually there are a lot-2 finger typing in the light)

by Buzzy on Oct 26, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

there was like one typo

dont be so hard on yourself

by revived0103 on Oct 27, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I found at least 5, but ill let it slids.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 27, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha.

not even intentional.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 28, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Grammar Nazi returns to seat.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jed Lowrie 2008 Split numbers

Vs RHP (including the ABs when he was playing hurt): .222/.304/.653
vs LHP .338/.409/.934
It’s a sss, but you got to admit that they are very encouraging!

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 26, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly encouraging - but is he the best option?

I’d love Lowrie to return to a fashion of what he showed in ‘08, if he can’t though I think a Hardy, or perhaps Crosby who could be had for less and play more positions isn’t a bad addition to the the team

by JonnyNYC on Oct 26, 2009 10:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

as for bobby crosby...

oh hell no. the man hasn’t put up an OPS over .650 since 2005. hardy has also been pretty bad his whole career except for last year. of course the first priority is defense, but those guys just can’t hit. seriously, jed with gonzo (or a comparable defender) backing him up is fine. of course thats if jed’s healthy.

what about iglesias? does defense really need time to develop, or could he play the exact same defense in the majors as in double A? his hitting would be horrendous, but he’s a thought as backup.

by revived0103 on Oct 27, 2009 1:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd really like Iglesias to start in the minors next year, and I think the FO would agree with that

His defense is certainly nice, no doubt about that, but even it could improve a bit with regular playing time. Not to mention that bat will need guidance and AB’s to get optimal results. Not sure how much time he’ll need, but I think starting the year off in the minors is the right call with him.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 27, 2009 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From what I saw

He needs the whole year at the minors: I’m leaning toward starting at AA. He has some nice tools: Speed, bat speed and obviously the defense but he needs to work on his plate discipline: I know he doesn’t strike out a lot but following him on gameday, I noticed that he swings at a lot of pitches out of the zone (sometimes WAY out of the zone). He’ll learn English, get accustomed to a new style of life etc etc so he’ll get ready for a cup of coffee a the end of the season.

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 27, 2009 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even your plan seems a little optimistic. This is a 19 year old kid who has never really played pro baseball. Most likely we’re looking at a few years in the minors.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 27, 2009 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i didnt actually think he's an option for this year

but after watching most of last years defense at SS it makes me pine for someone who can catch the ball. fine, i guess gonzo backing up lowrie is ideal.

by revived0103 on Oct 27, 2009 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My guess is a September call-up next year.

The lack of a bat has been, from what I can see, overstated. He’s not impressive offensively yet, but if he can develop some plate discipline then he could likely be a quite good hitter. He puts the ball in play and is FAST. His swing isn’t too pretty, but he can likely generate a little pop as he fills out.

I’m very encouraged, is all. He has impressed.

by USG on Oct 27, 2009 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Next year = 2011

I’m thinking like it’s 2010

by USG on Oct 27, 2009 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

September 2011 seems about right,

as long as the kid is as good as advertised.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 28, 2009 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He won't be ready offensively.

But they’ll want to show him what it’s like up here.

Keep in mind he’s only 19 and playing against AA competition now is probably putting him a bit over his head. I expect he’ll go from average offense in A+ to good offense in A+ to a short stint in AA in ’10.

by USG on Oct 30, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

JJ Hardy has been pretty GOOD his whole career except for last year.

The idea is to pick him up while his stock is down. He’s got a noticeably developing BB rate. The problem last year was a dramatic drop in BABIP and HR/FB. A little spike in K-rate, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was as a result of pressing as the year went on. He should rebound but good.

by USG on Oct 27, 2009 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only thing I would worry about is

the Brewer’s quickness to throw him away could mean he has an injury that is potentially career ending.

If there isn’t one, then the Brew Crew is probably going to want a boatload too.

by drabidea on Oct 27, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It has more to do with the fact that he's a FA after next year

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And they have Escobar ready.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, didn't his trip down to the minors mean he has two extra years of servitude instead of just one?

I think that will raise his price up and, depending on what other teams offer, past what the Sox are willing to give up.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 28, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've heard that too.

Really nasty manipulation of the arbitration system. I would be pissed if I were Hardy.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 28, 2009 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've never heard that

Nor can I imagine the union agreeing to that. I believe a player’s service time begins from when they were first called up. Being sent to the minors doesn’t affect that.

From what I’ve read, being sent down may hurt the money a player gets from arbitration. If what you say is true, teams would always send players down in order to keep control longer.

Can you provide a link?

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 28, 2009 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As nasty as it seems, it's true DD

Here’s the link.

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 28, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's see what the union does

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 28, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alcides Escobar at league minimum is why.

There were a couple guys on here who seemed convinced he could be had for a fairly uninspiring pitching prospect. I doubt it, but what the final price will be, you got me.

by Salty on Oct 28, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He being Hardy?

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 28, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And one of the guys being me.

And I stand by it. It’s not going to take a big-name prospect. If the Brewers tried to manipulate Hardy’s service time, he’s going to be pissed at them. With Escobar on the way, he’s already a lame-duck player. And the problem for the Brewers is everyone knows it.

by USG on Oct 30, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So like LF

This really depends on where the market goes:

- if Alex Gonzalez can be head for $4m or so, I’d consider that but not above
- if Hardy can be had for a Bowden/Declarmen type prospect, I’d be interested there.

- if both those options are available…then what? I’d vote gonzalez and the defense

by JonnyNYC on Oct 27, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jonny

Hardy’s defense is actually BETTER than Gonzalez’: In the last 3 years Hardy UZR is: 14.8 in 07 8.2 in 08 and 6.6 in 09 Gonzalez UZR is 11.8 in 07 3.7 in 08 and 6.9 in 09 so if you factor the age, Hardy is the better defensive solution.

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 27, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

$4 million is way too much for Gonzo

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How much did we throw away on friggin Lugo?

After throwing so much away on the Lugo notion, I would think at least that amount would be worth the peace of mind that comes with at least a competent fielder in the most critical infield position?

by NG on Oct 27, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lugo, Renteria - SS is the Sox AIG

They just keep throwing money into it, hoping it’ll work out.

I’d prefer they do less this year then over spent and maneuver in a less then stellar position on the market.

by JonnyNYC on Oct 27, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the Sox want a SS with a high OBP..

What the Sox FO want, is Derek Jeter for three years/ $4-6 million a year. Because he is unavailable for some undisclosed reason, they try to look for a DJ clone or a DJ/Nomah hybrid. Rent-a-wreck was suppose to be that. Lugo was suppose to take up Damon’s OPBs numbers as a lead off hitter.

They need to think of an Omar Vizquel clone than a good hitting SS, and I wouldn’t be surprise they look at Scutaro.

by superferret on Oct 30, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's a good part of the problem

because we’re still spending $9 million on Lugo next year, I imagine the FO will be hesitant to throw another $6 million in the position when Lowrie is probably the one that’s going to be starting most of the time.

by wolf9309 on Oct 27, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think they'd have a problem paying for a good player

But Gonzo is probably only worth $1-2 million at most.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah definitely

I think if there was someone amazing out there, they’d pay, but they don’t want to pay an extra $6 million for a backup

by wolf9309 on Oct 27, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The $9M is a sunk cost.

It will not (or should not) be a factor in how to best allocate assets going forward.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 28, 2009 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lugo didn't clear waivers...

The Cards picked him up or traded for him before he cleared waivers. Which means they aren’t paying him the MLB minimum, and the Sox are paying $8.67 or so million of the rest of his contract… My guess is that the Cards are paying him 1/3 or around that of his contract, because if Lugo cleared waivers, there would had been other teams who would pick him up before the Cards could claim him. They claimed him while he was on waivers.
  

by superferret on Oct 30, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

we got Chris Duncan

who, IIRC, we released almost immediately, but we’re paying Lugo’s salary

by wolf9309 on Oct 30, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was just released recently.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 30, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Half-and-half, really.

Not immediately, but not too recently. During the season.

by USG on Nov 2, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Your Gonzo love is kind of funny, NG

Considering the fact that Gonzo isn’t young (he’ll be 33 next year). He isn’t very good and, since he is aging, he won’t be getting any better.

Lugo was a mistake. Why compound that mistake by overpaying a marginal player?

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When grabbing for straws, at least

grab a straw with recent positive qualities. I sure felt better with Gonzales out there whenever a ball came his way. His fielding expertise may eb second to few, especially few in Sox recent history.

BTW, your point about age is well taken, so future planning needs to be done. For next year, however, this may be the best we can settle for. At least get some expertise somewhere.

by NG on Oct 27, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No.

Why ON EARTH would you put a few recent games ahead of his entire career in terms of meaningfulness?

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Umm. No.

We’re still paying for Lugo. If we can get Gonzo for less than $2mil, it’s a deal.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Def too high for Gonzo -

I didn’t think $4m felt right either, not sure why I posted that.

Hardy – I didn’t realize he was rated so highly by UZR, though as good as he is Brewers like Escobar more. Has a lot to do with the bat I suspect.

Brewers want starting pitching, not sure how much the Sox will part with for Hardy – depending on what Gonzo costs I still think it’s a toss up.

Considering Lowrie is the ideal solution, the need would for a back up/utility player to add depth and play solid D.

by JonnyNYC on Oct 27, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hardy is a better bat

Escobar’s defense is better, believe it or not. He is cheap. The brewers need pitching.

by Salty on Oct 28, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lowrie's the man

Offer Gonzo $1.5 mil to be a backup, if he declines than forget about him.

by Gnick on Oct 27, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

MILB says that Wood played 3B in the minors. Can he play SS?

Also, he put up some good numbers in the minors, so his price would probably be high. If Figgins doesn’t resign, he would likely be the replacement.

You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970

by BoldandBrash on Oct 27, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lowrie needs a year to get back on his feet, not a real option IMO

Green had a career month in May ’09, please do not take him as a serious option.

We have Navarro, Iglesias, and perhaps Kelly one of which can/should be ready by 2012, so IMO we are looking for a two year solution.

Hardy isn’t much of a hitter. According to UZR he had one brilliant year – the rest above average. That all adds up to he is good, but I reject the notion some have floated that he is the best SS with the glove going. Top 8 – yes. He’s a FA.

Wilson has 3 great years, and the rest – not according to UZR. He’s a meh hitter. Seattle has an $8.4M option or .6M buyout, guess he’s going to be a FA.

At least AG knows how to play in Boston, and once he got here, the Sox made the least team errors in the majors. He almost as much as VM is what jumped the team upwards in the 2nd half – even if WAR says otherwise.

I’ll take the cheapest of the 3 for two years – that means it probably comes down to AG or Hardy

by Tony Horton on Nov 4, 2009 9:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

You reject the notion that Hardy is an excellent defensive SS based on UZR? Go for AG.

by Salty on Nov 4, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

FIggins IMO will cost a lot, want a lot of years, and he’s IMO got at most two good years left in him.

Having Youk and needing a slugger means we can have a 1B or 3B slugger added. Sluggers at 3B are very hard to find. Even though Youk is better at 1B and average at 3B with the glove, I think we get a lot more bang for the buck at 1B with a slugger then 3B.

Agon would fit very nicely. Considering VM’s continue presence is likely via extension an injury hound like Nick Johnson could make a lot of sense at 1B, since you better not expect more then 120 games at 1B out of him.

But at 3B? Figgins with low SLG, Beltre … not feeling it.

by Tony Horton on Nov 4, 2009 9:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs


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