Should The Red Sox Move Jacoby Ellsbury To Left Field?
In what has been discussed here at OTM in the past, the Red Sox look to be "mulling" over moving Jacoby Ellsbury from center field to left field:
So what does this have to do with the 2010 Red Sox? While they see Ellsbury maturing into an excellent center fielder, they also have mulled moving him to left field, where they believe he would be outstanding. Such a move, though, means that the club would have to find an outstanding center fielder to replace him.
Michael Silverman writes about emerging defensive statistics -- something that you've found from our own E-Coli on a regular basis for months and years.
But outside of that, moving Ellsbury to left field would drastically improve the Red Sox's defense on the left side of the field. Ellsbury has a much better range than Jason Bay and his arm -- which is fairly weak -- would play less of a factor from the short left field.
(Click "continue reading" underneath the poll)
However, with that said -- and the name Jason Bay -- that means Bay would not be back with Boston. There's no way he could play center field (stop thinking that, whoever you may be). That brings another snag: who will the Sox get to replace Ellsbury in center?
There aren't a lot of great center fielders in baseball. There are some really good defensive center fielders. There are some really good offensive center fielders. But there is little to nothing in terms of really good defensive outfielders that also have a fantastic offensive output. It'd be great say, "hey, we'll re-sign Bay and he can play center and hit 36 home runs! Deal done!" No. Not that easy. Not that easy at all.
Silverman suggests Carlos Beltran:
One situation that bears close monitoring is Carlos Beltran with the New York Mets.
The Big Apple’s other team has descended back into the depths of mediocrity the past two years. There has not been a word about the team going into rebuilding mode, but Beltran, arguably the best defensive center fielder in the game the last few years, has $18.5 million left on each of his remaining two years in 2010 and ’11. He also has a full no-trade clause.
Sure, Beltran would be pretty solid. He probably fits that mold of everything-we-want-and-need, but it's just not feasible to take him off the Mets' hands. And while he would probably benefit from playing in Fenway Park, he would not put up the same numbers as Bay.
Basically, moving Ellsbury to left field would be a nice boost for the defense, but the ramifications of acquiring a center fielder would probably be worst in the end. Odds are, they'll play worst defense than Ellsbury in center (OK, not 'odds are' but it wouldn't be in the favor of whomever is acquired) and won't be able to match the production of Bay.
Ellsbury to left? Only if Bay or Matt Holliday are not signed to play left field for the Sox this offseason.
(Another option is Josh Reddick, but the jury is still out on him. He's still very young (23 in February) and his sample size in the big leagues is too small to just give him the starting center field job. If the Sox really want to save some money, they'll go this route, but it seems unlikely.)
But what do you think? Would it be smarter for the Sox to sure up the defense and move Ellsbury to left and find a replacement to center? Is Bay's production offensively that important to sacrifice defense? If Ells does move to left, who would you like to see in center?
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109 comments
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Comments
This shouldn't be plan A, but if it can be done, I don't see why not.
As long as it doesn’t distract them from negotiations with Bay or Holliday, the Front Office can look into whatever options they want – perhaps someone is willing to deal their CF in exchange for a few prospects. I wonder if Kemp is still out of favor with Torre…
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 25, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kemp
If Kemp is still out of favor with Torre….that would be huge…i would rather have him than bay or holliday….i think he is going to become one of the top players in the MLB
by cnubsbl16 on Oct 25, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh, exactly the reason he would be nearly
impossible to acquire.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Oct 25, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And why I was joking.
Torre and Kemp would have to get into a slap fight for their relationship to cause the Dodgers to want to trade Kemp. Even then, Torre’s not going to be around for long, so why worry about it?
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 25, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh, slapfight.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Oct 25, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Beltran is available, go for it
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 25, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sounds about right.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 26, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cuz
Eh! Because eh! And eh! (I’ll expand in the comments, of course)
I’m Canadian…I felt that it was my patriotic duty to choose this option.
Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.
by Bloggy on Oct 25, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Beltran would be great.
If we could trade for Beltran and Adrian Gonzalez this winter, and assuming Jed is the starting SS, our lineup could be R/L or L/R all the way through. I’d like that.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
That’d be the best part about a lineup that includes Beltran and A-Gonz — the fact it’d go L/R down the line…
by Randy Booth on Oct 25, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why stop at Beltran and A-Gonz
Lincecum and Halladay would really bolster the starting rotation.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Oct 25, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love how you talk like it's completely out of the question.
A-Gonz has been discussed as recently as this past summer, and Beltran is coming off a bad injury, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to get both. Is it likely? hell no, but its not as far out as you make it sound.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG Jamarcus Russel is soo bad
Anyway, A-Gonz would cost a boatload 27 y/o, Gold glove, All Star signed cheap for ‘10 and ’11. Pads have no reason to trade him and would have to be knocked unconscious by a trade proposal to consider it. It also doesn’t really make sense for the Mets to shed salary by trading an elite CF so they can sign Jason Bay and John Lackey, the “highlights” of this year’s FA class. I prob came off a little too sarcastically too, my bad I’m just going nucking futs waiting for the game to start.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Oct 25, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Padres are not going to compete anytime soon
and have a nice 1B prospect knocking on the door if I remember correctly. A-Gonz is potentially in play. Beltran is not as much of a possibility.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are right that AGonz will be available,
but they are in no rush to trade him. He is around for two more years cheap, so Hoyer can bide his time.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 25, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That creates another problem, though
What do you do about Victor Martinez? I guarantee you, you don’t want him catching 130 games a year, but you don’t want him platooning with Ortiz at DH either.
It kind of stinks for Lowell, too, who would become the best bench player in the league. And you’d have to get him some ABs at DH too.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you will see the Red Sox play Martinez 98% of the season @ Catcher
and let him walk next season. It’ss not ideal but it will still be better than what we had in 2009.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's only a good solution if we get Mauer
But that’s a longshot. We need a long-term solution at catcher, but we also need to be competitive next year. Martinez is going to drop off significantly if he has to catch 130 games, and he’s not exactly a stellar defensive catcher to begin with. He’s only worthwhile if he can produce at bat like he did this year, and that’s not going to happen if he’s catching all the time.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe IF Mauer hits the open market
this organization will go full throttle offering more than what Tex was offered. That’s a big if and I expect him to remain a Twin.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It had better be one hell of a front-loaded contract.
Because he’s not going to hold up for long.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 25, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Even if we did get Mauer, he’d have to split his time between catcher and first or we’re going to end up paying him $25M/year toward the end of his contract when he can’t play more than half the season. Having him split time between two positions is fine if our other C/1B is Victor Martinez and we have Youk at third, but that’s not a very likely proposition either.
Youk is also much better defensively at first than he is at third, so under those circumstances we might need to move Youk to DH once Papi’s contract is up and find a new 3B.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the Youk thing is silly
Certainly he’s better at 1st than at 3rd, but he’s still a good defender at 3rd- probably if he goes into spring training preparing more specifically to play at 3rd and isn’t bouncing around he’ll be better at it- certainly this year he was much better defensively at 3b than Lowell.
by wolf9309 on Oct 26, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats why its essential
that we get a solid defensive catcher this offseason to backup vmart. i like gregg zaun, but if the tigers wanna trade gerald laird, that would be amazing
by revived0103 on Oct 25, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is greater than that
We need a solid replacement at catcher for the long-term. Neither Zaun nor Laird fit the bill, but there isn’t much out there that does.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just like with everything else
the prospects are a year or two away. if we get a solid defensive catcher to back up v-mart this year and next, then we are in really good shape until maybe exposito? comes up. if we hold on to v-mart then he’ll switch to first or DH.
by revived0103 on Oct 26, 2009 5:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Beltran, just not sure about how he would fit in for Bay.
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Oct 25, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1B-Adrian Gonzalez
2B-Pedroia
SS- Lowrie
3B-Youk
C-Victor Martinez
DH-Ortiz
LF-Ellsbury
CF-Beltran
RF-Drew
Bench: Baldelli/Anderson/Marson/Vizquel
Lester
Beckett
Dice-K
Harden or Webb
Wakefield
Okajima
Papelbon
Ramirez
Cabrera
Jones
Bard
Saito (@ less than 6 million)
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do we have the prospects to get both Beltran and AdGonz?
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Oct 25, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Beltran will cost less than other people seem to think.
I thought I read back in the summer he was upset with the Mets and how they handled his injury at the time it occured. I also think they are going to spend a ton of $$ this winter on FA’s and this might create a need to move some payroll.
There are not many teams that could take Beltran’s salary.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Mets will make a push for Holliday.
I like your roster, but I don’t know how realistic that could be.
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Oct 25, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's probably not very realitic but it's what the winter is all about I suppose.
I don’t think it as far fetched as some do.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're forgetting Lowell
He still has one year on his contract, and no one is going to trade for him.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Buchholz
That rotation has to be more like this:
Lester
Beckett
Buchholz
Dice-K
Webb/Harden/Wake
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buchholz is gone in a deal to SD.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not likely
Buchholz is more valuable than Gonzalez.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
certainly gonzalez has more value to us than buchholz has to us, and he is the center of the Padres. It will take Buchholz+ a significant amount of others to get Gonzalez.
by wolf9309 on Oct 25, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buchholz is a future ace
And he’s the third best pitcher we have right now. We already need another starter for next year to round out the rotation; trade him away and we need two, and given who’s out there, we could probably forget about the playoffs next year.
Gonzalez just isn’t enough of an upgrade over what we have to justify that.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
def
I would not trade buchholz away fro Gonz….he is a national league hitter anyways
by cnubsbl16 on Oct 25, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That means nothing.
1) The difference between leagues is only important for pitchers (no DH – and all the fun subs that are caused by that lack).
2) He plays half his games in Petco. That alone boosts his expected production in a neutral park much higher.
3) He has the “Fenway stroke”, or so they say.
4) He was avoided like the plague in his current lineup – hard to do when he’s surrounded by excellent hitters.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup.
I had never heard people claim NL hitters are worse until the Holliday talk and a few times with AGonz. I’m almost postitive its not true at all.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 26, 2009 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought
The Holliday talk had to do with Coors Field.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 26, 2009 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well he played good there but then played remarkably better for St Louis this year than he did for Oakland
by cnubsbl16 on Oct 26, 2009 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oakland plays in a pitcher's park
And still Holliday had the best wOBA on the team.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 26, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he hit almost 70 points higher in St. Louis…i dont care if its a pitchers park
by cnubsbl16 on Oct 26, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You talking batting average?
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I'm going to stick with wOBA, since I prefer to consider the value of each hit...
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1873_OF_daily_full_8_20091006.png
He managed to get his offensive production up to around his career average right before he was traded.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AL vs. NL Pitching
It’s actually also harder to hit in the AL. Beyond the box score did a couple studies on the matter and that was their findings.
by Gnick on Oct 26, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really? I'll have to look up those posts...
Coulda sworn I’ve seen it shown as a negligible difference multiple times on that very site…
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d love to see that study.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 26, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly not the first time I've heard it.
I seem to recall hearing it around the time Drew signed. Although…maybe I was the one saying it. I can’t really remember. o_O
Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.
by Bloggy on Oct 26, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not finding anything on BtB...
Got any links or ideas for what the posts might have been titled?
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could you give us a link?
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 26, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Three part article
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-the-al-really-superior/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-the-al-really-superior-part-2/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-the-al-really-superior-part-3/
by Gnick on Oct 27, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why I couldn't find them.
Doesn’t appear to be a significant difference, to me at least. Besides, with the other factors taken into consideration, the difference is usually negligible.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 27, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
The second part of the article has some pretty good evidence suggesting otherwise. As a player gains 5.1 runs from a move to the NL from the AL, whereas we would expect him to lose 1.5 due to aging.
by Gnick on Oct 28, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"the AL has been 2.6 runs better per player (per 500 PA) than the NL"
I don’t know about that being significant.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 28, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Per player yes
But among players changing leagues it is much higher, and that is what highlights the difference in difficulty.
by Gnick on Oct 29, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's also probably the result of suddenly seeing a lot of (relatively) new pitchers.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 29, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AL vs. NL
Many people think the difference applies to hitters as well. Those people would say that the pitchers are better in the AL than the NL (not statistically, but they have better “stuff”). This is evidenced by a lot of hitters not performing well when switching from the NL to the AL.
by Schulz on Oct 26, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buchholz is hopefully a future ace
But although he’s proven he can be a solid pitcher, hasn’t yet proved that he will be an ace- so far he has trouble in high pressure situations, which is what the ace really needs to be there for. Gonzalez is a proven superstar, and is a huge upgrade over what we have right now.
The Red Sox are in a position where they can afford short term contracts for decent money on pitchers, and there are no hitters near Gonzalez’ caliber on the market right now, boosting his value.
I think long-term, keeping Buchholz is a better plan for the club, I just don’t think a deal will happen without him being involved (I don’t think a deal will happen), because really we don’t have any incredibly impressive prospects that are near the major league level at the moment. But remember, the Padres are not going to get rid of him without a huge gain- that’s fairly close to the equivalent of us trading away Lester.
by wolf9309 on Oct 26, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have him being traded away while we eat a nice amount salary.
I did not forget him.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Someone took Julio Lugo and John Smoltz
so I disagree.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because they had no value for the Sox and were of minimum cost to the Cards
Lowell has value. The Sox aren’t just going to dump him for nothing.
by RSNexile on Oct 25, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lugo and Smoltz
were dropped from the Red Sox. We didn’t trade them. Other teams came and picked them up off of waivers in exchange for no-name minor leaguers or some cash. They had no trade value, and teams only picked them up because they lost next to nothing in the transaction.
by Schulz on Oct 26, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is our backup cathcer Lou Marson? How will that work?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 25, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cleveland has the catcher they got in the deal for Blake coming.
Marson is not long for Cleveland.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
by gizmosandy on Oct 25, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They have Carlos Santana, who will probably be the starter next year.
He is one of the best catching prospects.
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Oct 25, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say yes
Ellsbury has the same skill set as Crawford and he could be a 4.5 – 5 WAR kind of player and try to trade for Beltran if the price is right.
If not, Mike Camroun on a one year deal is the way to go IMO: He strikes out a LOT (as Bay do) but he could take a BB and he’s good for 25-30 dingers (a .350 wOBA basically) and his defense in CF is really great.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 25, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't like Ells in CF
But I’m not sure I like having a LF with no power.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 25, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Rays were perfectly fine with that!
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 25, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 2008 Rays, of course.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 25, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
But it’s not an ideal situation. The 2008 Rays were not a great offense. They only scored 774 runs and only had 2 players with 300+ PA and an OPS over .800.
Tampa had a very good defense. The Sox don’t. Assuming the Sox moved Ells, they’d still need to upgrade at CF, 3B, SS, and C. Also, downgrading your offense—even if your picthing and defense are good—leaves a team little margin for error. The 2008 Rays won 98 ganes. But by pythagorean W-L, they were a 92-win team.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 25, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it depends on who would play CF
I don’t care for forcing players to have offensive characteristics that traditionally fit with their positions. If the Sox “magically” had a Beltran playing CF than Ellsbury in LF would probably help the Sox a lot more than Bay. The 2008 Rays were a remarkable defensive team with an average AL offense. The hypothetical Sox team here would be a great defense-great offense team (Ells, CF and a full year of Lowrie/Gonzo/Hardy/X at SS would be huge defensive upgrade-only Lowell would be below average. If Lowell could bounce back a bit toward 08 Lowell it would simply be a great overall defense).
That said, this is unrealistic. There is no clear option for CF. Unless someone tells me how a player like Beltran would go to the Sox, I wouldn’t bother to much with it. For me it is not the lack of power in LF, it is the unrealistic shuffle that does not explain where CF will come from.
by Buzzy on Oct 25, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
To get Beltran, the Sox would likely have to include Ells in the package.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 25, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could someone explain this to me a bit more?
I consider myself to be a pretty faithful Sox fan, and this is the first I’ve ever heard of defensive concerns with Ellsbury. I understand the UZR/150 stat, and that only Dexter Fowler (another burner who makes spectacular plays) was the only one worse than Jacoby, but can someone put a more qualitative spin on this? I know he doesn’t have the greatest arm, but what else? He makes spectacular plays that no one else can! Is it that he doesn’t make the average plays?
Only constructive responses please, thanks!
by doa133920 on Oct 25, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He has bad reads and takes poor routes to the ball. Many of the spectacular plays that casual fans and the media love were the result of Ellsbury’s speed making up for his bad instincts. Far too often, balls would drop in front of him or behind him, hits that other CFs would turn into outs. If you watch Ellsbury closely, he really wasn’t very good. I hope he improves. But right now, Ellsbury is a below average CF.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 25, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, thanks! That makes sense. Maybe he should take the ol’ Ortiz eye exam.
by doa133920 on Oct 25, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR
attempts to judge defense by dividing the field up into zones. Once the field has been divided up, UZR essentially measures the number of balls hit into a given fielder’s zone and the rate at which those balls are converted to outs. By this measure Ellsbury was near the bottom at his position. It does seem to jibe with what you see if you watch closely: he is often late to break, or breaks in or out incorrectly on balls hit at him, and is often off-balance. Thus he gets bad reads on the ball. The number of diving catches he makes should be a smoking gun-most “good” fielder convert outs by being in good position (eg JD Drew); Ellsbury makes up for his bad reads a bit with speed but speed alone cannot atone for more balls becoming hits for balls hit in his zone than for the average CF.
That said-UZR is not perfect. All teams have their own versions of this kind of thing that I am sure they trust more. However if the Sox indeed have considered moving him you can bet that he does not grade fanstastically by their system either. Ellsbury was offensively only behind Hunter, Kemp and Span offensively in all of baseball for CFs. If he can play solid defense he becomes a very valuable player.
by Buzzy on Oct 25, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Ellsbury is doing just fine in CF. It would be more difficult to find a replacement CF than a LF. I really hope this doesn't happen.
Beginning of the Sarkisian ERA
by hportallstar on Oct 25, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
more UZR
One of the areas UZR needs improvement is in park factors. Parks like Fenway with quirks like the monster (or the lights in the metrodome, and so on) can make a player look worse than he really is. This is why after being just slightly below average defensively in Pittsburgh, UZR makes Bay out to be horrid in Boston.
by bigjonempire on Oct 25, 2009 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, that, and he does play far too deep.
Hasn’t learned to use the wall yet.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 25, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yet?
He’s only had a year and a half.
Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.
by Bloggy on Oct 25, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holding out for the possibility.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bay wasn't very good in Pittsburgh either
As a matter of fact, Bay was better this year by UZR150 than he was in 2007 with the Pirates. He only had one plus year, and had years of -7.2 (2004) and -11.4 (2007).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 25, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*cough* Injured *cough*
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*cough* was a minus every year but one in Pittsburgh *cough*
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 26, 2009 7:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nevermind, I thought he was injured in 2007 for some reason.
It was 2003… Hmm.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is true
I don’t think anyone will argue that he’s a great defender, but having watched almost every game, he wasn’t the butcher that some people are making him out be in left field. He certainly seemed like he played adequate defense for a fenway left fielder- there is so little ground to cover between the short fence and the complete lack of foul ground that the position doesn’t require an amazing defender. He figured how to use the monster pretty well. In any case, his offensive production was fantastic (apart from a low avg year) and if we can’t get him back, we better get somebody with a lot of power who can get on base a lot or else we’re going to severely struggle next year.
by wolf9309 on Oct 26, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury to CF
Moving Ellsbury to LF would be like moving a super quick CB to SS. He is probably the fastest player the Sox have ever had. You should never waste speed. Also it’s much easier to get a LF to replace Bay.
by BEAR73 on Oct 25, 2009 8:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ells doesn't know how to use his speed, and he plays better deffense in LF.
I don’t think that Usain Bolt could play very good CF.
You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970
by BoldandBrash on Oct 25, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have faster in the minors.
And I’d much rather have the fastest defender play FS, where they can be a sniper. Speed at corner just means he won’t get burnt as much – he’ll still miss (or not attempt) tackles and get beat by a disciplined receiver.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve also heard that Bucholz is faster than Ellsbury.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 26, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard that
But I’m not quite sure it’s true. I also don’t know of anyone faster in our minor league system, didn’t he run a 4.18 at Oregon State while he was returning kicks for the football team.
by Gnick on Oct 26, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
It was actually a 4.20, which would only make him .04 seconds better than Chris Johnson.
by Gnick on Oct 26, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Link?
Buch ran a 10.87 100-meter, and he beat Ells in a race in the minors, supposedly:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&thread=2354215&id=2354354
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the fastest guy in the minors is Lin
He was like a sprinting champion in Taiwan. Derrick ibson and Fuentes have some serious wheels too.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 26, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh.
Ellsbury’s bat doesn’t look so good in LF. Easier to find a LF bat than a CF bat.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Oct 25, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ells in LF won't work because...
The defensive runs/wins prevented by Ells compared to an average LF are significantly less than the runs/wins his offensive bat would cost. The balance isn’t there for a positive outcome by shifting him to LF.
But let’s say Ells is continuing to improve. Is he more likely to improve in 2010 at defense or offense? At the plate, he has an average batting eye and minor power. He already made some strides with his eye during 2009, but his power output is pretty level. Any OPS improvement might come if he learns more plate discipline to help his OBA, but don’t expect the SA to get much higher. His eye for fly balls may likewise improve. He already has the speed for range. Only his arm remains average (it’s not Damon-like, after all). Keep him in CF.
by dsharp on Oct 25, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey, here's another thought for Ells - SS!!!
Has anyone here ever read about DET CF Mickey Stanley in the ’68 WS? They moved him to SS from CF for the first time in his career just for the WS and actually did a pretty good job.
And how about Craig Biggio? He moved from C to CF to 2B.
Unless, it’s already been tried and failed (e.g. Mickey Mantle who went from SS in minors to CF in the bigs), it’s not as crazy as it sounds.
by dsharp on Oct 25, 2009 11:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Easier to move from the IF to the outfield.
Biggio played everywhere – he was the ‘Stros Jose Oquendo. Besides, do you really want Ells’ bad reads to be magnified by the shorter allotment for reaction?
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 26, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't Sheffield start at SS?
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 26, 2009 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BJ Upton
With BJ upton up for Arbitration this year there are many rumors that he will probably be shipped out this winter. I know he had a rough year this year but the kid can play. He had good years in 07 and 08 and i think he is going to be a 5 tool player. any thoughts?
Ps. I know his OBP wasnt high which you guys are in love with….just work with me
by cnubsbl16 on Oct 26, 2009 8:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Upton can hit like he did in 2007 and 2008, he's very good
In both years his OBP was over .380. He is a very good defensive CF, much better than Ellsbury. With his crap hitting this year, Upton fell from a 4.9 WAR player to a 2.7 WAR player. A 2.9 WAR is still better than Ellsbury’s 2.1 WAR this year.
Ellsbury was decent in 2008, when his defense was a plus. In 2008, Ells was a 3.3 WAR player. If Ellsbury can playe defense like he did in 2008 and hit like he did in 2009, he’d be a pretty valuable player. However, a lot of his value was from playing LF.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 26, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tough to believe they'd trade him within the division.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
by BTLove on Oct 26, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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