43+Back Surgery= Lots of question marks for Wakefield

by austin91092 on Oct 23, 2009 7:38 PM EDT

With Wakefield having back surgery earlier this week, do not expect the results to be stellar.

Wakefield did less to impress in 09. His ERA, AVG, WHIP, and SO all fell from the 2008 season. What is even more worrisome is that after a 2007 season that saw Wakefield pitch 189 innings, in two years that stat has dropped to 129 (going from 31 games to 21).

The fact is Tim is getting up there in age.

While his productivity has been above average, fans have to worry he will not be able to hold up in 2010. Wakefield is 43, not 23. Recovering from any surgery requires a load of work just to get back in shape, let alone go out there 20+ games and get batters out.

The solution? It may in fact be to turn the 5th starter into a middle reliever. It is not as if Wakefield has been an ace whos production is invaluable, Boston should allow the knuckleballer to come back in the 2010 season with a less prominent role that would give the 43 year old more rest.

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=123801

Poll

Where is Wakefield better suited in 2010

Starter

26 votes

Reliever

7 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 30 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

So long as Wakefield can give us that 4.5 ERA over 6+ innings, I say we keep giving him the shot.

The fluctuating stats are pretty typical. The point is that they’re never too bad, never too good. That’s the nature of a knuckler. His $4mm contract’s value lies in the number of innings he can provide at a consistent level. Now, we certainly need to use him either as the backup starter, or provide a backup for him in Duch/Sheets/Bedard/Harden, but there’s no reason to pigeonhole Wake on the presumption that he won’t be able to pitch the way he’s been pitching for the last 15-some years, given the unique properties of the knuckleball.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions

He gives the bullpen rest..

To me that is his value. He will pitch 7+ innings. He was a saving grace in the beginning of the season, when Beckett and at times Lester faltered. The only pain is for the catcher to guess where the knuckler is going.

I really think the key for Wake’s duration if he can throw his change up, if he can’t, then he may have to retire.

by superferret on Oct 23, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions

kind of unrelatedly,

i would be utterly shocked if Lester isn’t great from the get go next year, and thus wins a cy young. I can’t imagine another bad april and may for him.

by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 4:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Lester's slow start last year was an issue of luck/defense.

FIP and tRA said he was performing at about the level he ended up at in ERA in the like, so I’d agree that there’s no reason not to think he’d come out firing.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 24, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Hopefully we improve the defense and help these guys out a little bit.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 24, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

if we have harden healthy and ready to go

and its between him and wake and wake is putting up a 4.5 ERA over six innings then we shouldn’t keep giving him the shot. At that point Wake should be the backup. He is exactly the injury risk that any of those buy low guys are. if we get any one of them and they’re healthy they should be the fifth starter on opening day, because they all have the potential to put up a fantastic year. Wake fully healthy will give you at best an above average year. if the new guy sucks, then backup wakefield comes in rested and hopefully finishes the year. if not he stays as spot starter/long man/feel good charity clubhouse guy.

by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 4:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Harden doesn't go deep in games

Do you really want a rotation with him and Dice-K? Ideally, you’d want your #5 to eat innings.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 24, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

If your bullpen has Wake in it to go 3-4 every time

It won’t be hurting quite so bad. You do go with a good ERA first.

Seriously, though, Sheets > Harden.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 24, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

really either sheets or harden

could put up a great year and if healthy could be way better than wake.

by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

6th Man/Long Man

I would bring in a 5th starter with question marks but upside (Sheets, Harden, etc.). Between Lester, Beckett, Buc, Matsuzaka and the 5th, Wakefield will get his fair share of starts. When not in the rotation, I would use Wake once or twice a week in 2 or 3 inning stints.

I just don’t see how Wakefield would thrive as a middle reliever. First, do you want to bring in a knuckleballer in with guys on base? Second, if Wakefield is too fragile to pitch every 5 games, will he fare any better making 60+ appearances over the course of a season?

by mg050369 on Oct 23, 2009 10:06 PM EDT reply actions

well that raises an interesting question

would it be more draining for him to pitch and inning every other game and pitch 80 innings, or pitch every five games and throw 180 innings? what matters more, regularity used or amount used, particularly in wakes case (old, surgery)?

by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions

I would think being a reliever would be exhausting for him, because he'd have to warm up (close to) every day.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Oct 24, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds about right.

We also have Bowden and Tazawa as capable end of the rotation guys.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 24, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

i was just looking at his stats

and he had a surprisingly great year in 2008. 4.13 ERA, 1.18 whip, 181 innings. i think he was a little under appreciated that year

by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 4:47 AM EDT reply actions

NG comment in 3....2....

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 24, 2009 8:06 AM EDT reply actions

Complacency, lack of reality, being cheap!

These are the forces that will keep the Sox from being champions on a regular basis.

Listening to you guys talk about a totally washed up old man trying to play baseball just reconfirms to me why we are going nowhere fast. Sometimes you have to set the tone and maybe pay some money to get a predictably great team, IMO.

by NG on Oct 26, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

You're tardy.

These are the forces that will keep the Sox from being champions on a regular basis.

Since the dawning of the new millennium, the Sox are the most regular World Champions in baseball. Just sayin’.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 26, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't like what I see since the last one.

Especially with this predilection for hoping old guys will come through. That will not work too often and is a poor basis for trying to fix key areas of the puzzle.

Go young and spend money if needed and if you have it!

by NG on Oct 26, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

You didn't like what you saw in 2007, either.

One World Series and then one game from a shot at a second after that. Again…just sayin’.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 26, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Wake is AWFUL

I hate pitchers that only give us 2 WAR and then get injured. I mean he only avg 6+ innings a game, why you gotta give our bullpen a rest like that Wake? Why do you year after year have to eat innings to save our starters and keep them going for the postseason?

Don’t even get me started about his contract either. He gave us 8.5M dollars in value last year but he is making us pay him 4M back. Come on Wakefield, be a team player for once.

by drabidea on Oct 24, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Because I don't understand stats...

…I was ’bout ta git all indignint. Thankfully, you kept typing giving me a chance to figure things out. I coulda ended up looking pretty stupid. ;)

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 24, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

The truly awful part is..

his starts give the bullpen time to relax, or Tito can work them hard the game before or it is close or goes into extra innings… Wake is just reliable in his starts and how long he can last. Wake’s performances at times can be frustrating, but it always great to watch some of his gems.

The four million is worth the piece of mind, for the GM and Manager. Unless you want the Sox to have the lowest ERA in the AL or MLB, then keep Wake. Compare to someone like AJ Burnett, who just loses his composure on the mound, or can have a good strong game, Wake is steady.

I rather have an AJ Burnett or Vincente Padilla as one of the Sox Starting pitchers than Wake. Think of the sale increase for stress reducers and ulcer medication, (yeah, yeah ulcer are caused by a microbe, not stress, but they are still marketed for managers for their fifth starters, or second starter if you are Yankee Manager… (or ex Yankee Manager if Girardi doesn’t win the next two games of the ALCS)

I am all for a Wake/Milton Bradley trade.

by superferret on Oct 24, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Unfortunately I'm having trouble understanding your points

I don’t know any team that wouldn’t want the lowest ERA in the majors or prefers Wake to Burnett. The latter is only the better option because of his more payroll friendly salary.
You do realize that Wakefield is a 10/5 man? Why would he agree to a trade? Second, with pitching at such a premium, why would the Sox FO trade a guy with unlimited $4M team options for a malcontent that could very well be had for a bag of balls and a portion of his salary paid for by the Cubs?

by mg050369 on Oct 25, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

I was responding to another sarcastic post..

I wouldn’t trade Wake. The last person who should play for the Sox is Milton Bradley. It would be unfair to Bradley, the Sox Clubhouse, and the Sox FO.

Padilla is one huge headache, besides he is known as a headhunter. Burnett did pitch well at Fenway, but he is way too unpredictable, and each of his starts are quixotic.

by superferret on Oct 25, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

How is Burnett even in this conversation?

Wakefield is the easiest decision the Sox have to make this off season. See how he feels off the surgery and either pick up or don’t pick up the $4m minimum wage for a SP contract.

Finding another low risk high return type option wouldn’t be a bad idea, depending on the size of the commitment. I don’t recall Bedard’s contract with the M’s off hand but he or Sheets would seemingly be guys you could get for a Smoltz/PennyMiller type contract.

by JonnyNYC on Oct 27, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Because Ferret was being sarcastic.

And mg050369 missed it, which is odd, considering he would have to have assumed someone seriously wants Milton Bradley.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bdalebs on Oct 27, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think Wakefield is an easy decision... (non sarcastic post)

Mainly he may have more back problems with other discs. There is a probability that he cannot be healthy for each start. The good thing is that his bread and butter pitch isn’t going to cause to much stress on his body. I think he may have a problem with his change up, and his fielding.. The Sox should have contingency plans if Wake is having back problems. If Wake is healthy, having him in the starting rotation is a no brainer. I just worry that his collagen of his discs are wearing down… Wake may be a rampaging oxycontin addict by spring training, if he is having big time pain with his back. I know people who had herniated discs, and the strongest painkillers are like placebos to them.

Bedard is an injury nightmare, talented but he is having some serious injury problems in the last two seasons. I don’t know much about Sheets.

by superferret on Oct 27, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitely pick up the option (which is the easy decision)

but do not count on him being i the rotation all year. He can pitch half the season and still be easily worth his salary.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 28, 2009 4:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I am not writing that the

by superferret on Oct 28, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

I am not writing that the Sox shouldn't pick up Wake's option

I am writing that Wake may not be reliable as a starter, possibly the entire 2010 season. The Sox may have to improvise to plug the gap in the starting rotation or have a back up, if Wakefield is day to day for each start.. As I wrote, the pitch he is going to have problems with, because he has to put much more force on his legs and lower back is his 80s mph change up.

Back Surgery is a pretty invasive surgery, on a pretty complex machine. One reason why neuro surgeons have to be in residency for years, (plastic surgeons probably have the second longest time in residency) He may have problems with other discs, if the problem that cause this herniated disc was collagen degeneration.

Much like torn labrum surgeries that Mike Lowell and A-Rod had are never going to give them the complete movement that they had before they had hip problems and hip surgery.

by superferret on Oct 28, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions