Early October exit could mean changes in the clubhouse
A roster that suddenly is filled with question marks could see changes by next May
There was no hiding it, the spark that had ignited the championship runs of 04 and 07 was missing this past year. A fast start (most notably 8-0 against the yanks) had Red Sox Nation thinking pennant. The team had jumped to the early division lead despite the struggles of Big Papi and a depleted starting rotation. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis did their best to hide the defencies of the team.
Their efforts held only for so long as Matsuzaka headed for the DL and Beckett suddenly had a homerun proble. Their division lead quickly decimated as the Soxs looked up at a 8.5 lead by the rival Yankees and suddenly into a wild card battle with the Rangers. The boys in red managed to get their act together in September to make it to October.
And while a team has the ability to suffer up and downs during the regular season, their weaknesses show ten fold in the playoffs.
The Angels had been a team who Boston had dominated in recent years, making a first round battle with the Halos just another series. But this soxs team ran into the problems that had plagued the team all season, a poor rotation (with the exception of Lester surprisingly) and an inability to hit in tough spots ultimately doomed the soxs to their sweep.
The question now is, how does the perennial underdog (as their fans would like to believe) soar back to greatness. With Wakefield having Back surgery a priority must be put on pitching. Shipping Lowe and Smoltz has depleted anny depth the Soxs had at the position and with Bucholtz still not establishing himself, Boston may have to look to free agency. The most coveted target may indeed come from the team that swept the soxs in the playoffs, John Lackey. The 31 year old has proved to be consistent and will come into a rotation where he does not need to establish himself as an ace so long as Beckett and Lester remain at their current stature.
Offense is another obstacle to tackle. Simply put, the Red Soxs are aging at key positions. While the front office secured their backstop with the aquisition of Martinez, 3rd base could become a problem if Lowell can not produce. While Lowrie looks fine at shortstop, Boston may need to consider adding a first basement to complement Youkilis.
The Red Soxs are in a sense stuck in purgatory. Their future seems uncertain as they took a step down in recent years, but could be primed for a run in October with the right moves.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4587658
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An opinion helps draw a conclusion
Might want to change the line about "Lowe and Smoltz."
Penny and Smoltz is what you were looking for, I think.
And I’m the resident Jed-#1-fan guy, but I wouldn’t say he “looks fine” – still needs to get the wrist checked a couple more times during the offseason, and have NO pain during ST. It’s the most likely path, but there’s still a good chance that something else goes wrong.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Agreed
Lowrie’s defense is not bad, but he had 68 AB this year. SS is perhaps the number 1 concern going in to 2010, so to say he looks fine is questionable.
Also, why should they “consider adding another first baseman to complement Youkilis” when he is one of our most consistent and productive hitters, and an above average defender?
Well, I wouldn’t say Lowrie looked fine at SS considering he didn’t play there very much. Lowell had struggles, but a .290 line with 17 hrs and 75 rbi’s isn’t bad, so not quite time to jump ship. But Theo may want Ortiz and Mikey to share DH so he can have above league average in every position (Adrian Gonzalez at 1B ex.) and to compete with NYY.
But overall I see what you’re saying, just sometimes gotta be careful (esp. Lackey) throwing too much $.
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."-Manny Ramirez
Lowell's OBP was .337 with crap 3B defense. Time to jump ship.
Lowrie is a fine defender. Had been in the minors, and has upped his game in the majors with some serious range and, most of all, the ability not to make dumb mistakes. Where A-Gon was consistent, he never looked smooth. Lowrie looks smooth, though hopefully Iglesias can prove himself offensively capable enough to take over soonish (2011 would be nice). He’s a ridiculous defender.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
do you have a lot of faith in iglesias?
top SS in the system?
It's way too hard to judge his offense based on an immensely small sample size.
But in what sample size we have, he’s not afraid to take a walk (and plate discipline is a hugely under-recognized tool), he’s got good speed on the paths, and he’s making good contact. Let’s just say it’s more than I expected early on, and the defense is apparently as advertised. Based on what I’ve heard, he could be the best defensive SS in the league not too long from now.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 24, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
sweeeet
to the last sentence. i can’t wait
I agree
I see what you are saying about Lowrie I am just assuming he is going to take the leap forward when given the chance. Lowell’s stat line is average but I worry he is not going to be as durable and Boston might not want to wait for him to spiral downwards.
An opinion helps draw a conclusion
"The Red Soxs are in a sense stuck in purgatory."
I LOVE that line! Bravo.
Looking for the fountain of youth surely does leave one in purgatory at best, and at worst, that other place! however, you won’t find much realism from the stat guys around here as they seem determined to use their stats to show how the fountain is just over that horizon. You know, that horizon that hides the gold at the end of that rainbow.
I don't think it's Purgatory at all
Sox are reasonably set in several areas going into next year, namely:
Front line starting, 2B, 1B, CF, C, Bullpen
Great youth and performance in these areas.
Really going into next year they are only going to be old @ 3B. With Youk able to move to 3rd at anytime, I really don’t see age as an issue with the Sox at all.
Sox can focus on 3 areas this off season and come out looking strong for next year:
- LF.
Ideally getting Matt Holliday here, and paying a premium for him, gets you improved defense, a better all around bat who can hit in the 4 spot and more spark/fire in the clubhouse. He’s should be the first area of focus.
- SS.
Lowrie could be the answer here, but this position has been an issue since ‘04 and it’s likely not going to improve much this off season. If you can get Gonzalez back cheap, might be worth considering as he can hold down the fort in the event Lowrie can stay healthy or doesn’t perform. Bobby Crosby could be an option as a utility IF as well here.
Back end SP -
I don’t think Lackey makes sense – you aren’t going to want to pay what he’ll command for a #3 starter. Sox are in a good position with Beckett, Lester, Dice K and Buchholz going into next year. Wakefield should return but some depth here certainly could be used. I think a John Garland or perhaps Ben Sheets in another low risk high reward style contract.
Papi’s bat is a concern as well but DH is an easy problem to solve, I think once LF is solved the Sox will also look for a solid 4th OF, Reed Johnson or Xavier Nady perhaps.
DH isn't really an easy problem to solve
Because big bats cost either big bucks or big returns.
Otherwise, though, you’re mostly right. I think the pen needs some shoring—we need a guy who can be consistently good to fill in that 8th inning need, but otherwise I like the idea of Paps-Oki-Bard-Ramirez and hopefully Richardson. Delcarmen is, and always has been, unreliable at best.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Holy crap, NG, your ability to construct baseless strawmen is f'ing PROLIFIC.
Why on EARTH do you think that us “stat guys” want to stack the team with 40-year-olds and has-beens. I’m sick and tired of you trotting out that same damn line all the time just to make your “youth movement” idea seem revolutionary instead of just misguided.
Fact #1: In the MLB, it is a widely accepted fact that, all else being equal, youth is preferred. This is especially the case with signing long-term contracts. This belief is also held by almost everyone on this blog, “stat guys” included because, surprise, there’s statistical evidence proving decline with age!
Fact #2: As a result, YOUTH IS HARD TO OBTAIN! Young players are under team control for the first 6 years of their career, after which the good ones tend to get big-ass contracts. As a result, unless a team has a farm system with to-this-point unheard of production, it’s impossible for a team to be without its fair share of cheaper veterans.
Fact #3: Nobody here is trying to find the “fountain of youth”. We took flyers on Smoltz and Penny last year because they were cheap and there weren’t a ton of options out their last year (accepting that Sabathia was Bronx bound from the get-go). It turned out not to work, but that’s where the low-risk situation came in. As is, the older players you have a problem with are Lowell, Ortiz, and Wakefield. Almost everyone agrees that, if there was a way to get rid of Papi and Mike’s contracts, they would in a heartbeat, but unfortunately there’s no such easy-way-out so we have to live with what we’ve got. In retrospect, you could say that it wasn’t smart of the team to sign Lowell at his age, but that’s specifically why the Sox insisted on 3 years instead of the 4 others were willing to offer him. It was a somewhat emotional signing (2007 World Series MVP) which has turned out much worse than any of us could’ve reasonably predicted given his 2007 campaign.
So would you once and for all please drop your crap? The fact is that you’re not some sort of revolutionary force—far from it. You’re just the guy spouting a party line without any realization of the difficulty of attaining the ideal. You’re working in ideals instead of realities, and contributing nothing to the conversation but bullshit about how everyone else has it wrong when they’re the only ones offering solutions and reason.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Well said, sir
Rec’d.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 23, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
BOOM CHAKA BOOM
Annnnnnnnd…..Rec’d
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
"but that’s where the low-risk situation came in."
Unfortunately, the risk escalated with each ineffective/injured pitcher. If Theo’s trying to find the next OBP-ahead-of-the-curve market, he’s going to have to figure out how to account for the chances that “low-risk” guys become something a team has to depend on because of bad luck.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
Bad luck, as you said.
A team can only be so deep. You simply won’t have guys like Sheets or Bedard agreeing to be the 7th, maybe 8th men.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Which is to say that any and all teams would be unable to account for such dramatic issues.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Which is to say that Theo's going to have to blow minds to make this strategy work.
If it was to fill out a roster with extra players, it’s great – that should be what Theo’s looking for this offseason. We (will) have a player in place for at least half the season at every position, which means the “low-risk” guys will have very little chance to become important.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
If my comments are correct and
right on, why get mad at me if youy agree? Trotting out all these contract reasons why we are stuck in crap only points to management incompetence. It does not stop, and should not stop legitimate criticism of the problems and even how we got there!
So you don’t like the reality of the Sox’s situation, but I am glad you can agree with me on much of this!
by NG on Oct 24, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions
It's because they're an extreme, and not correct in the way you present them.
You talk about the Sox like it’s the end of the world because they’re not composed of 100% 27-year-olds. The fact is that more youth is better, but you think that all youth is necessary and that it’s some deficiency of the Sox that they aren’t able to make a team completely of young superstar talent, when instead it’s the reality of the league. It doesn’t help that you then proceed to attack everyone else for working in realities when they suggest signing veterans at reasonable prices to fill in holes/get good value.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 24, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
We wouldn't get so mad if it was CONSTRUCTIVE criticism.
All you do is complain; try suggesting realistic solutions, and then we’ll listen.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
I have to disagree with you on a lot of counts here.
First, you suggest the team was missing a “spark”. I absolutely hate talk like that. Baseball is not a fast paced game. It’s one that allows ample “cool down” time between each pitch, at bat, and game, and not one that’s subject to sparks. Sure, a guy can get on a hot streak because of any number of reasons, but I deny the idea that some sort of weird team chemistry BS can produce real results across a whole team.
Second, you seem to be grossly mismanaging the timeline here. Matsuzaka was never a factor during the good part of the season, and Beckett’s homer issues came after the division lead had been given up. The reason they lost the lead was because of a miserable July where they lost the production of Jason Bay and just didn’t have the balls fall in very often. IIRC, Petey was slumping then too, and that was when Tek’s offense took a nosedive into oblivion.
I also take issue with the idea that 3 games in the playoffs can be used to somehow diagnose a team’s problems. Our issue was that we couldn’t hit them. Didn’t happen until the 3rd game, and then our closer who had spent the last 2-3 months dominating the league shat the bed. It happens. It was 3 games at the end of a season where we had won 95 games. The rotation did just fine, too (why would it be surprising that Lester was good, by the way? He’s been our ace for the last 2 years now…), allowing 9 earned runs in 17.2 innings. Not fantastic, but certainly not “poor”. We lost because we had a 2-game hitting slump of epic proportions. It happens.
I don’t understand what you’re talking about with pitching. What does Lowe have to do with anything? How has Buchholz NOT established himself as a legitimate rotation arm? Wakefield is expected back, as is Daisuke. While there’s definitely need of a 6th man to back up Wakefield/provide a replacement in case of injury, overpaying for Lackey in a year where he’s the only Marquee name is a bad idea. Better to grab Sheets/Duch/Harden/Bedard on a mid-level 1-year contract.
The Sox do have some offensive issues. Lowell can’t be counted on to produce at a high level offensively or defensively, and quite frankly Martinez is not a 100% solution at catcher, given the fact that plenty of scouts agree he can’t play the position consistently and maintain his offense—though even an offensively weak Martinez is better than Tek, we should definitely get a capable backup. Doing so would help us in the 3B-1B dilemma if we could have V-Mart play maybe 7/10 games at catcher, 3 at 1st, etc. Also, DH is still potentially a big problem. I have no faith Ortiz will put up a good line next year.
I agree that Lowrie needs to get another shot while fully healthy, but we need another guy to make sure we’ve got options. JJ Hardy is my pick.
As for the sense of purgatory, I can’t disagree more. Lester has emerged as an ace, Buchholz is making a strong push to be our #3. We’ve seen the addition of Dustin Pedroia and the growth of Kevin Youkilis into an offensive force, and we’ve made big-name deals at the last 2 trade deadlines. If the team looks like it’s hit purgatory in the last couple years, it might be because of how some of our new guys have fallen somewhat flat—Lowrie hasn’t stepped up yet, Ellsbury wasn’t able to maintain his ridiculous 2007 pace and is actually fairly questionable in center due to all the late reads, and while Buck has done better this past year, it seems somehow delayed to some people given how he came out with a bang in ‘07. And pen arms like MDC and RamRam have seen tons of trouble. Plus our FA additions last year proved beyond unimpressive But if people expect us to turn our whole team over every year, well, that’s just plain impossible.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Even though it's from a different sport, I might have found my go-to link when people reference team chemistry...
Unforunately, t snail mail has beaten the WWL’s website in getting the article published, but it’s the latest in the “Player X” series (which is amazing, btw). Even if it’s from an NFL player’s perspective, I’d imagine it carries over – he basically laughs in the face of anyone who thinks a team won’t play up to potential just because of some disputes.
Now to read the rest of your rant…
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
I think there's something to team chemistry in other games.
In the NFL, a QB needs chemistry with his WRs just because it helps for them to know how the other will think and react to changing coverages and the like. Really the same can be said for all sorts of different units. On the football field, everyone needs to act as a coordinated team. If one piece comes loose, that could be the ballgame. Basketball even moreso, given that it’s just 5 guys. Obviously, it’s not the most important part, but if the Celtics’ Big 3 weren’t so perfect at understanding eachother’s games I’m not sure #17 would be hanging where it is.
But in baseball, each player’s AB is an individual AB. Unless we’re talking about a guy on 2nd tipping pitches, then there’s 0 influence of another player on him. Baseball is an individual sport played as a team by-and-large.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
All good
though I like Crosby more then Hardy, greater flexibility in the depth he’d provide and I think they are at about the same offensive level – though I haven’t looked at the stat lines between them.
Crosby's pretty horrible now.
Hardy would probably have gotten another shot if Escobar wasn’t breathing down his neck – the down year didn’t help his case.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
I hate this article.
It’s nonsense. Lackey? Really? Lowrie looking fine at SS.
You get a thumbs down from me. If NG agrees with you, this is not a sign of good things to come on this website.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
Understand where you are coming from
First off understand this is just my interpretation you do not have to agree. I honestly think Lowrie has been inconsistent this year in his game. Lackey is worth the money but it may be better spent on Harden/sheets/etc like others have mentioned.
If you disagree that is fine just do not bash my opinion cause it does not match your own.
An opinion helps draw a conclusion
by austin91092 on Oct 23, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Sandy is a bit harsh at times. Don't let it get to you.
by Ben Buchanan on Oct 23, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
USG is trying not to scare you.
Sandy’s a crazy old guy, but he has moments of amazing brilliance. Oh, and he might call you a Tinkerbell.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
not bashing, jut givng you a hard time. get used to it as I am in charge.
VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010
Giz also thinks Canadians are communists.
And I don’t ever want John Lackey on my team, for I enjoy watching him lose.
Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.
I wouldn't mind Lackey
I just think he wants AJ Burnett money. I wouldn’t pay either pitcher $16.5 million.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 24, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I've got WAY too much fanboy in me...
…to want John fucking Lackey on my team.
Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

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