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Where the Sox Things Are: Offseason Priorities

This guy has a lot of work to do. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola; caption by E.coli)

More photos » Elise Amendola - AP

This guy has a lot of work to do. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola; caption by E.coli)

Whew, I just got back from an abortive effort climbing Mt. Everest?* So... how are the Sox doing? ...

...

They WHAT?????!!!!!!!

 

To be serious for just a moment, yes I saw the ALDS, and the ignominious end to the Red Sox season. I imagine my reaction to that series mirrored that of many Red Sox fans: shock, horror, disgust, anger, revulsion, anger, humiliation, anger, horror, anger and anger. After watching, it was difficult to write about the Sox again, to express anything about a team that had snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. It was a return to the bad old days, where the team teases you all season only to rip out your heart at the end.

Sadly, there's not too much that can be done about a sudden offensive drought, which was the deciding factor in the series. And as much fun as it might be to trade Papelbon to team suiting his competitive spirit (Pittsburgh, Florida, Kansas City), he should not be traded under vindictive, disadvantageous terms. I'd rather see Paps moved for real value in a trade like the one that netted Matt Holliday for the Oakland Athletics (reliever Huston Street was the centerpiece of that deal). If that happens to be for Hanley Ramirez, then so be it.

But Papelbon doesn't need to be dealt any time soon. And Boston's offense, while unimpressive in October, was still good for 3rd best in the league. Accordingly, this offseason Theo should make the following items priorities:

1) Improve Defense.

Boston ended the year with the 28th worst Defensive Efficiency in all of baseball (second worst in the league). By UZR they  were ahead of 13 teams, but still bad overall (-17 runs). The left side of the field was largely a disaster, a putrescent cesspool anchored by Mike Lowell and Jason Bay, with a generous slopping of Julio Lugo on the side. No more. Efforts should be made to improve defense on the left: put Matt Holliday out there in Bay's spot, move Youk to 3rd. Some of the bad D was due to Ellsbury's crappy year, and Lugo's gone, but Lowell is still a worry and there's a hole in left field where Matt Holliday should be. [CLICK CONTINUE READING FOR 2 - 7]

Star-divide

2) Scout and make great draft picks.

Saito and Wagner should net some nice ones. Hopefully the farm gurus can grow us something better than a Jason Place or a Will Middlebrooks, because at the moment the farm system doesn't have too many players ready to help in the majors. I only hope that Mr. Anderson can overcome whatever is holding him back and become the All-Star we need. We need more excuses for Matrix quotes here...

3) Don't sign Johnny Damon.

This is less about pissing off the entire fanbase (and taking Judas away from his beloved Big Apple) and more about playing style. In Boston, Damon might knock mothers off stepladders or bring about the Apocalypse, but he won't hit +20 cheap, wind-tunnel-aided home runs to the right field stands. Further, if Johnny is signed to play left, that means the team missed out on both Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, both of whom would be better choices.

4) Don't count on Jed Lowrie.

Either Gonzo or Nick Green (or Hanley Ramirez) should be retained to back him up, for the 90% of games he misses with a strained cranial flexor.

5) Do something big.

This isn't strictly necessary from a strategicy standpoint, but it's much more fun to write about signing Matt Holliday or a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, than about more low-risk, moderate reward signings. In addition, if you get a great player, the likelihood of him imploding on you is reduced than if you get someone coming off a down year / injury-plagued season. We saw what players like that can do in 2009, and it wasn't inspiring. Brad Penny gave us some good starts before he started sucking, but John Smoltz was monumentally bad from the getgo. Theo doesn't have a great record rehabbing pitchers (Wade Miller comes to mind), so he should either avoid free agency altogether this season, or go for something resembling a known quantity. I am willing to make an exception for Rich Harden, because he is very good when healthy.

6) Fix Daisuke.

On the subject of injured players, we need Daisuke to pitch well, if only to avoid a third appearance by Paul Byrd. I still think he can put it together and become a #2 or #1 starter, although I'd settle for a luck-aided season like 2008.

7) Get a catcher who can throw out runners.

VMart only gets runners when they're following his throws into centerfield. Varitek is dead, long live the corpse. Get someone who can actually play the position to backup the starter.

_________________

Anyway, enough of my thoughts. What do you guys think should be the Red Sox offseason priorities? And how much improvement, if any, do they need?

* I canceled the trip after learning that I would not be the first or coolest Sox fan to do so. I just hope nobody complains about how much of OTM's bailout money was used to fund the junket.

Poll
How much improvement do the Sox need to compete next year?
A lot. Theo needs to significantly improve the team and sign / trade for one or more marquis players.
160 votes
A little. Getting backups for SS / C, a few relievers, and resigning Jason Bay should be enough.
112 votes
None. Boston has the players it needs to win next year.
1 votes
We can't compete next year. Trade off veterans and shoot for 2011.
9 votes
TEHY SHOUD SIGN EVREY FREE ANGENT AND WIN THE WS!!! O WAIT TAHT'S TEH YANKEEZ, NEVERMIND!!!!
27 votes

309 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 26 comments |

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Because, you know, Jed's got the WebMD symptoms charted all filled in.

He had the one wrist injury. If you want to count him getting hit in the knee while trying to rehab, be my guest – but joking that he’s going to miss games because of some random (likely impossible) injury should be more of a knock on the management who decided to DL him before getting the wrist examined after he felt some pain.
I’m not saying that we should completely ignore every other option at SS – I’m just saying that Jed’s a pretty damn good player that should have no remaining effects from the injury by the time ST roles around. If the FO feels the need for a safety net, I’d prefer Gonzo over Green, simply for the experience and the chance that he’s really out to screw the concept of regression to the mean. Of course, if Gonzo is the backup, I would hope he isn’t signed on the terms of his current option, which is far too much for a backup, broken-down SS.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 12:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If there's any opening...

…trade Lowell, keep Kotchman. That+sign Holliday and boom, revamped defense.

And the sox have made great draft picks about 8 years straight, it’s just that it takes about 4 years for those to make dividends…bummer

by A Guy on Oct 23, 2009 1:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

While I think Holliday is slightly better than Bay

I don’t see how Holliday/Kotchman are better offensively than Bay/Lowell. Holliday is slightly better than Bay. But Lowell is a much better offensive player than Kotchman.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 23, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lowell

I think it would be really hard to trade Lowell. Not many teams are going to want to pay his salary for one year

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 23, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 23, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be in favor of this.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 24, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe that we can't offer Saito arbitration

Which means no picks.

But Bay definitely will bring picks if we let him walk. Wagner might.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 23, 2009 5:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sounds right.

And it also seems like Saito might be back.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 24, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's no way the Sox pick up Gonzo's $6 million option

If he wants to sign for significantly less, fine. But, over the course of a season, Gonzo isn’t worth much. Even a moderately healthy Lowrie is much better. If the Sox FO have doubts about Lowrie’s health, they should look for an upgrade at SS (Hardy?).

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 23, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

so your suggestion is...

That we bench or trade Lowell, who is $12 Million (which he is not worth, anywhere he is traded to we are eating that), trade a $10 million closer for a cheap megastar who is one of the best hitters in the game (to the team with the smallest payroll in baseball), sacrifice Bay’s great offense and over $100 million for Holliday- who would probably be great but is questionable in the AL East, pay $6 million for a backup shortstop (or alternatively use a backup who was OK for a while but could not connect after pitchers started to realize he was alright and figured out how to pitch to him).

That doesn’t realllllly sound reasonable to me. We’ll try for adrian and felix, but I think the FO will probably decide they don’t want to give up buchholz, bard, and most of our top prospects for one player (because really, we don’t have much in the way of top level prospects, we have a lot further down, but no one ready to come up, really).

by wolf9309 on Oct 23, 2009 9:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lowell can DH and occasionally play the field.

Everything we pay for him is already a sunk cost. I don’t care about dumping Theo $12 million to move Lowell: that’s about what we spent (aka. wasted) this year on rotational depth. Almost every year of the Theo era, the Sox find ways to gamble around $10 million, whether for guys like Joel Pineiro or Curt Schilling (circa 2008).

If Ortiz is moved (another terrible thought, I know) Lowell could be the DH 90% of the time. Tito could also have a DH platoon with Lowell against LHP and Ortiz against RHP. Lowell’s fielding prowess has really gone down hill, and I’d rather see Youk out there. At least one of CB Bucknor’s horrible calls might’ve been prevented if Lowell’s throw was on the line.

We might be able to bring Gonzo back for less, as the inestimable Drugs suggests above. Nick Green provided good defense and hit well for a few months, so I don’t hate the idea of him coming back either. Not every backup SS can be a legend like Alex Cora.

The HRam for Paps+the farm system deal is a pipe-dream of course, and doesn’t make much sense for them. If Paps is traded at all, it’ll probably be a mid-season deal to a NL contender, or a team looking for draft picks (in his final year before FA).

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Oct 23, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

NL?

I don’t see any way Papi goes to the NL. He can’t play the field, so why would he go there? He’s not Jim Thome….yet. He’ll be a DH for somebody.

by rmarx on Oct 23, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Paps = Papelbon

I was writing about trading Papelbon to the NL, not Ortiz.

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Oct 23, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sacrifice Bay’s great offense and over $100 million for Holliday- who would probably be great but is questionable in the AL East

We would not be sacrificing Bay’s offense, we would be replacing it with Holliday while significantly upgrading the defense. And I doubt the difference between Bay and Holliday will be $100M.

Also, many people keep saying that Holliday might not hit in the AL East. Where is the evidence of this? I assume its because he had a few bad weeks to start the year in Oakland. But he ended up with an OPS+ of 125! The guy has proved he can hit outside Coors. I am not worried about his offense, at all.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 24, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another Bloggy pro-Holliday comment
I am not worried about his offense, at all.

Me, neither. I think that Holliday would be great in the Sox line-up. Seriously, with the line-up that the Sox could put around Holliday for support, he’d thrive.

Holliday > Bay.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 25, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

here's what the sox need for next year

all small stuff that will not be hard to do:

1. Solid defensive SS with decent/good bat- Answer: Jed Lowrie

2. Solid defensive outfielder with decent bat- Answer: Trade for Cody Ross

3. A lefty reliever- Answer: Scott Eyre. I know he’s ancient.

4. Following the theme, a solid defensive catcher- I loved watching Gregg Zaun with the Rays, and he even hit a little for them. there’s other options, but he’d be a good backup for V-Mart. Notice who I’m not considering for the job?

5. A starting pitcher as insurance for Wake- Harden is probably the best option. He’s only 28, a type B, and can be amazing. We could also try Sheets or Bedard, but with age comes less chance of recovery from injury.

Of course this all hinges on us resigning bay. if we don’t that opens up a whole other set of questions about the offense. As it stands the weakness of this club is the defense.

by revived0103 on Oct 23, 2009 8:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is Ross available?

If he is, he’d be a good 4th/5th OF, but not a starter – he’s probably an average player, based on his WAR from the past few seasons.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm sure he's available.

he’s a borderline player for the marlins. he has to be.

yeah i didnt mean as a starter. they need some corner infield depth. drew being mainly healthy this year was nice, but rocco isn’t cutting it.

plus ross DESTROYS left handed pitching. .964 OPS. An upgrade over Drew against lefties, but even Drew has an .863 against lefties. makes me wonder why tito was starting sbaldelli against lefties this year.

by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

rocco is kind of useless in case of an injury

because he’s perpetually injured. he can’t step in to take over regular right field time, so he’s kind of worthless as a backup. i just realized how useless he is actually.

by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 3:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 24, 2009 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crappy season equals low contracts and a shuffle.

I fault the b.s. way the front office and Tito managed the road to the playoffs… then there’s the real deal: Salary offers and contracts will be based not on the season, but on the post-season. Bay, a solid player for most – not all – of the year, batted .125 post-season. Take $30 million and multiply by .125 and you have his contract offer. “Trade me” is what the front office is looking to hear. See you in BlueJays garb next April, JBay.

Here’s the 2010 changes, as we try to out-Steinbrenner the Yankees:
Pen: Pap – up for trade, probably for a over-aged/has-been starter like Halladay. Bard for closer.
Buchholz – tradebait. Same for Bowden and anyone else aged 25 or under, including Pawsox and Portland.
Wake – gone. Retired.
Why Delcarmen and Ram-Ram are still here to FAIL games for us? I have a theory,
I just can’t put it in writing.

Position players:
Lowell – benched or retired, with the salary payout. Maybe does some DH as suggested earlier – but as a means of ending Papi’s rein.
Bay – lowballed, traded. Same for Tek – who may go with Papelbon, or see waivers instead.
Green – waivers. Joined by Baldelli. No room for good $500,000 utility players in a specialist/top gun organization. Someone’s injured? We buy a player from a non-contender for that team’s complete 2010 roster payout. It’s the Steinbrenner way.
Lowrie – waivers or traded. Ya had yer chance kid, just like Masterson, Buchholz and if he’s not careful – Pedroia.
Drew – mid-season trade. Eating the cash. We’re Steinbrenner, we can do this.
Brown and Kottaras? Won’t see September in Sox uniforms – unless it’s in Chicago.
Papi? Marginalized, by using Lowell as DH from time-to-time. Either way,
by 2011 both of them are gone.

2011 Sox Uniforms? Home – white with blue pinstripes, road – red with blue pinstripes. Stylized BR, one letter imposed on the other, and no longer any mention of the old “hanging sox” logo.

I’ll retire my sox hat at that point, and wear Mets colors just to piss-off the Yankees… and watch Toronto’s JBay hit 40+ homers, 10 or more over the Green Monster.

by 44N on Oct 25, 2009 10:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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