Platooning the LF II
by radiohix on Oct 22, 2009 8:31 PM EDT
40 comments
Our friend bloodysock04 had the platooning idea that I found interesting, I've done some research to find an ideal combo with of course, the salary consideration and the defense and look what I found:
|
Player |
PA |
BB% |
K% |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
|
Fukudome vs RHP |
536 |
15.7 % |
17.1 % |
.270 |
.387 |
.441 |
.828 |
|
Kapler vs LHP |
174 |
14.9 % |
13.2 % |
.276 |
.379 |
.552 |
.931 |
|
Bay |
638 |
15 % |
30 % |
.267 |
.384 |
.537 |
.921 |
When it comes to defense Kapler/Fukudome are a huge upgrade compared to the butcher from Trail, BC: Fukudome UZR when playing in the corner OF (although he's mainly used in CF where he ain't good) is 8.0 and Kapler UZR is 6.2! It's day and night I said :)
Ok, now we know that Fukudome is still under contract for 2 more years at $ 13 millions in 2010 and $ 13.5 millions for 2011 so a trade has to be made with the Cubbies: IMO a package around Bowden, an Illinois native FWIW, could swing that deal for Jim Hendry: He's looking for payroll relief (their payroll is very high at $134,809 Millions) and they need some arms in the rotation and the BP (Delcarmen?).
Kapler could come cheap (1-2 millions range) so you'll have a LFer with better defense, less power but who Ks less and put basically the same OBP numbers for a short commitment (1 and 2 years respectively).
Add to that, that we'll be fixing the need for the bench/4th OFer due to the departure of Rocco Baldelli for basically the price tag that comes with Bay resigning!!
Thoughts? And what package it would take in your opinion to have an extended Japanese connection in Boston?
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Are you sure about Kapler, Hix?
His lefty/righty splits show him to be much better v. lefties.
He is a career .714 OPS hitter against right-handed pitching.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 22, 2009 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It was a typo: I meant vs LHP
Sorry it’s fixed now :)
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 22, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this idea a lot
A Fukodome trade could be done relatively cheaply. And while his contract is pretty big, it is only 2 years. It is a short term deal that will allow room for the prospects to come up.
by BigRedDog42 on Oct 22, 2009 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hi Hix
Again I find these things interesting, but my guess is you could come up with a better version of such a platoon. My biggest issue is that you are using last year’s data for the splits. However the numbers are less favorable career wise in the bigger sample. Fukudome is something like 790, Kapler something like 845 (I don’t have the numbers right here) for the larger split OPS sample. Using wOBA would make Kapler look a bit worse and Fukudome look a bit better (probably). Also while I don’t doubt the defense would be a real upgrade, it is not clear how someone like Fukudome would grade out in Fenway, thus making the absolute comparsion unclear. Cost/Year would still be high, but years total would be low which is nice.
by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Those are 09 numbers as I found them on THT
Fukudome:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=fukudko01&year=2009&t=b
Kapler
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=kaplega01&year=2009&t=b
And I forgot to mention that Fukudome has the 4th highest LD% in the Majors at 24%!!!!
And for the price tag: Consider that you have 2 players which solve the vacancy in the 4th OFer spot still ain’t cheap but not a steep price IMO
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 22, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
but why use the 09 numbers? Use the larger career sample. These are not guys on the upside of their careers. The career sample is more telling and paints a somewhat different picture vis-a-vis the offense.
by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right (as always actually lol)
Can’t argue with that! But Fukudome has only 2 seasons under his belt. How about Connor Jackson? He’s a LHP killer IIRC.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 22, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep he is
Career line vs LHP: 297/.396/.470 I’ll have to check the defense but it certainly isn’t Bay bad ;))))
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 22, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
those numbers are surprisingly good, but they are both around 33, and numbers in the NL are basically void when they come to the AL. Also there is no way i want to give up bowden or any prospects of any consequence for an aging outfielder who’s never played in the AL.
the upsides to that platoon might be that a kapler reunion would be fun, that fukudome would give us a near monopoly on japanese talent, it would save a lot of money for a year or two until the prospects come up, they would upgrade the D, and maybe just maybe they would make good on those splits.
by revived0103 on Oct 22, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kapler is playing in the NL?
And where was Bay playing before we traded for him? I prefer those platoon suggestions to the “let’s trade for Hanley/Reyes” BS that I’ve been hearing on the talk radio shows and reading on different blogs!
"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish
by bloodysock04 on Oct 22, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and FYI Bay is 32!
"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish
by bloodysock04 on Oct 22, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also bay is different
because he’s been performing at a consistently high level for years. that wont change noticeably for a while. kapler wasnt even playing a couple years ago, and fukudome has only played two years, and has been inconsistent.
by revived0103 on Oct 23, 2009 5:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
The type of hitter that Bay is relies heavily on his ability to hit for power. He does not have a high batting avg, he draws alot of walks because of his power threat. There are many players who were similar to Bay who faded during this part of their career.
We would then have a 4 year albatross.
by drabidea on Oct 23, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.280 career hitter
he had a down year this year in that respect. expect a 30/100 man with an OPS of a tick below 900 for the next few years
by revived0103 on Oct 23, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No so sure about that
His BABIP has dropped for about .010 which you could consider as a normal year to year fluctuation. On the other hand, when I check the decrease in his contact rates ( 71.7% to 77.1%) and the big jump in his k rate (from 23.7% to 30%) I become VERY nervous.
Is it the beginning of a decline? What his K% will become next year? The main question for Theo will be “Are we willing to take the risk?”
I remember Theo saying after DFAing Lugo that the team has made the mistake of paying for past performance instead of the future one. It will be a tough decision to make.
Interesting off season looming my friends.
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 23, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh man you are not comparing bay to lugo
jason bay has always struck out a ton. his lowest K total over a full year is ’08 with 137. this year despite having the appearance of striking out a ton was barely above his career average. it was just our first full year with him and it seemed like a lot.
also, many great power hitters strike out a lot. probably a better example of this, but A-Rods mvp season of 2005 he struck out 139 times.
bay is facing better pitchers this year than in the past, and yet he still had his second best year. thats impressive.
by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
obviously i meant fukudome when i said NL
success in the NL clearly doesnt always translate to the AL. hell, even success in the AL west or central doesnt always translate to success in the al east. best example i can think of of this at 2 AM is the way kazmir became lights out when he went to the angels after sucking for a year and a half and then got rocked by the sox and banks in the playoffs
by revived0103 on Oct 23, 2009 5:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For pitchers
When you play in the NL you have like 2 or 3 free Ks and when you get in trouble you can walk a hitter to face a pitcher but for a hitter the difference is not that steep.
"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish
by bloodysock04 on Oct 23, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good work, Hix.
To take this a bit further, perhaps a table of LHP killers next to the RHP killers, sorted from best to worst?
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
I’ll try to do that as soon as I get home ‘cause I’m actually in a business :(
"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur
by radiohix on Oct 22, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Priorities, Hix.
Do work.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hooooo
Yeah nice find Hix! Didn’t thought about Fukudome. And We can find a kick ass nickname for the Kapler/Fukudome Combo: At DBR they call Gross/Kapler The Gabe of the day :D
"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish
by bloodysock04 on Oct 22, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not really a big fan of Fukudome/Kapler replacing Bay
I’ve never been a huge Kapler fan, and Fukudome isn’t a very good hitter. This year, Fukudome had an .828 OPS v. righties. Since most pitchers are right-handed, that means the Sox will downgrade from a hitter who has a .915 OPS in Boston to a player whose best split year is .828.
Fukudome is a career .789 OPS hitter v. RHP, compared to Bay’s career .883 OPS.
Kapler is a career .844 OPS hitter v. LHP, compared to .934 for Bay.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 22, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so its a clear downgrade offensively
i think the appeal is the upgrade at D and saving a ton of money
by revived0103 on Oct 23, 2009 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fukudome is expensive
He’ll make $13 million next year and $13.5 million in 2011. The defensive upgrade won’t compensate for the offensive downgrade. In two seasons, Fukudome is worth 4.2 WAR. This year, Jason Bay was worth 3.4 WAR—and in ’05 and ’06 he was worth 6.4 WAR and 5.5 WAR respectively.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 23, 2009 7:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that Bay's WAR dropped should be a good warning.
by drabidea on Oct 23, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
Bay had one bad year: 2007. That year his WAR was 0.1. Last year, Bay’s WAR was 2.9. It improved in 2009. Bay’s WAR in Boston is lower than in Pittsburgh because UZR hates LF in Fenway. Bay isn’t good defensively, but his defensive numbers are far worse since he was traded to the Sox. At minimum, Bay is a 3.0-3.5 WAR player. That’s not always easy to replace.
There is no reason to assume Bay will decline rapidly offensively. I think Hix and bloodysock04 point out creative ways the Sox may try to replace Bay if he signs elsewhere. However, I can’t think of a platoon that would definitely be an upgrade over what the Sox got in LF in ‘08/’09. The only available alternative to Bay, without resorting to a trade, is Holliday.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 23, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
damn thats surprising
i read that and then forgot when i was writing. he is very overpaid and the cubs should take on salary if they trade him.
by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curtis Granderson, anyone?
There was talk recently that he could be available this offseason. He’d be a perfect solution. He’d be great for RHP, which is most of the games, and he’d solve our defensive problems in both left and center for the most part, if you consider moving Ells to left when he plays (and if his UZR drops from last year’s league-average numbers significantly, that’s just a sign of how much UZR is effected by Fenway). He’d be a late-inning defensive replacement against LHP, and we could sign Kapler for the lefties.
by USG on Oct 23, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
YES!!!
Close to Span on my wishlist. There is one concern about him though: his flyball rate has EXPLODED.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thus his power numbers this year though
by revived0103 on Oct 24, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, just a very quick change, to me at least.
He went from like 30% to 50%. While his HR/FB has increased a little, his infield fly rate has exploded as well; overall, he’s been hitting far worse by swinging for the fences, dropping .055 (!!!) of his wOBA in since 2007. He’d be a bit of a project – consider this:
Granderson’s BABIP was below average, but that’s probably at least partially due to the higher FB rate.
On a side note, Span = :D, even with his insanely high BABIP. Also, Ells’s BABIP doesn’t bode well for him, considering his OBP is AVG heavy.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 24, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Graphs
I honestly forgot how well Jacoby turned it around this year. I think he would have gotten alot more attention if his UZR was better.
by drabidea on Oct 24, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind, though, that some hitters can have a perenially good BABIP
Ellsbury’s BABIP in the minors; .325 in high-A, .341 in AA, .338 in AAA. Don’t be surprised to see his BABIP stay in the .330 range.
How a Chris Dickerson/Kapler platoon in left? At 28, Dickerson is pretty young, plays good D in left (and center too, if you’re for moving Ellsbury to LF), and has a career .288/.387/.458 line vs. righties. This way, we get a better offensive producer than Fukudome for about $13 million/year less.
by SBGonzalez on Nov 1, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ells' FB rate is going up too, which is why I expect him to fall back.
Actually, his increase in BABIP seems to be driven purely by an 8% drop in IFFB rate.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 1, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unless he regresses.
He’s obviously still trying to be a power hitter with the increase in fly balls, but it could have been a fluke that he didn’t mess get under too many.
@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Nov 2, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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