2010 Do's and Don't's for the Sox

by JonnyNYC on Oct 21, 2009 4:02 PM EDT Comment 114 comments

95 wins is a good season, though not great. This was a team that never really hit on all cylinders and a lot of that to me was due to the offense never producing consistently in the middle of the order. Injuries, slumps, age, etc. - lot of factors here which hurt things, but the reality was a lack of power cost the Sox. A few do's and don'ts for the Sox, plus a couple WEEI caller like trade options:

Do's:

Resign Bay.

Holliday is 1A or B depending on how you look at it in the market but he's never played in Boston, didn't fair well in the AL earlier this year and unless he's cheaper by $5m or more really doesn't offer anything more then Bay provides.

Listen to Trade offers for Papelbon & Lowell.

Paps value should be quite high, and why I don't really like the idea of giving up a proven closer he is likely the best chip the Sox will have and is a guy then may not resign anyway.

Lowell is coming of a decent season, he should be much better in '10 a year removed from the injury. He'd provide veteran leadership, solid defense at 3rd and could DH for a team. Including him in a deal with Paps plus some prospects could work nicely for a few teams.

Do Not:

Don't sign Figgins, Abreau, or Damon.

Damon and Abreau should be DHs, figgins is solid defensively but does nothing you need offensively in Boston next year. Need power at some level from LF - if it's not Bay or Holiday look into trades for DeJesus or possibly Ankiel.

Don't trade for A-Gon

Great young 1st basemen yes. But if you are going to give up a large portion of the farm for a bat, do if for H.Ramirez - a similarly great bat in with a much greater VORP.

WEEI-caller type trades:

- Paps, Lowell, Bowden, Paps 2 + single A quality arm for ... King Felix.

- Buchholz, Bowden, Delcarmen, Lowrie for ... Jose Reyes

- Paps, Buchholz, Lowell, Paps 2 for ... Hanley Ramirez

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Thanks for stopping by OTM

here are some thoughts on your ideas:

a)Resign Bay-I am fine with that. That will not cost picks while Holliday will, and Holliday will cost more in $$ too (probably). But don’t fool yourself in the comparsion, regardless of Holliday in the AL (note-he was better than you think if you remove his first month, and played in the best run prevention park and division in the AL), Holliday is the more valuable player overall.
b)I think listening to trade offers for anyone is a good idea. I don’t think anyone will come knocking for Lowell, and not many will come for Papelbon.
c)I agree about Damon, Abreu and Figgins. Figgins is an interesting player and (I think) a type B but he is not young, is comming off a career WAR year, and does not really fit anywhere on the Sox. I would prefer 2009 Figgins on the Sox to 2009 Lowell, but that is not really the point.
d)I would entertain an AGonz deal, but as for everything else, it depends on the deal, and I don’t see it as likely at all. Our farm would not net HanRam, so forget it.
e)WEEI Deals-well that is a good name. I don’t know where the idea that King Felix will be movable comes from. That team is a mid-to high payroll team (100 Million a year-we are not talking about the Marlins), is shedding a crapload of payroll (Jojima, Bedard, Beltre…) and only has 30 Mill or so on the books for next year, does not have a moron GM (Bavasi) anymore, and has a 23 year old star at a cheap rate for the next few years. Not only will the WEEI deal fail to raise an eyebrow (and makes no sense from a payroll structure standpoint) but neither would any other deal. King Felix may be the least likely player to be moved in all of baseball. As for the other 2-HanRam-forget it, and I am not sure I would do the Reyes deal.

by Buzzy on Oct 21, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Matt Holliday in Oakland: 125 OPS+ (142 on the season)
Jason Bay all year: 132 OPS+

Not too much of a difference, as you say,

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 23, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, Holliday would have better protection in the line-up than in Oakland

I REALLY would like to see Matt Holliday in Beantown. I just have a really good feeling about him here.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 23, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ankiel? dejesus?

that doesnt make sense, especially right after you say we need power in LF.

in terms of the WEEI caller deals, buster olney said that he could see the sox getting prince fielder. i guess they might have interest in paps considering trevor hoffman is gonna be 42, but lowell couldnt DH for them. i would do the reyes deal if you took buchholz out.

by revived0103 on Oct 21, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Do not resign Bay.

Do not trade Papelbon.

Both are stupid.

Bay is not worth what he will require. Papelbon is still a great closer.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bay

is overvalued, is a defensive liability and an aging risk. Bust aside from Holliday who will cost significantly more, there is no other immediate option unless you think that Reddick can contribute.

by Buzzy on Oct 21, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 21, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

exactly. Holliday is probably a better player than Bay, but we don’t really want to make a giant 7 year commitment to anyone over 28 at this point. Bay is a solid reliable 30+ HR, RBI guy who we can sign for probably just 4 or 5 years and there is no one else on the market that will give us the kind of power we need from LF.

by wolf9309 on Oct 23, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Abreu/Dye/Damon

on short term deals are options if the alternative is long term with Bay. The economy is still in the toilet, massive contracts won’t be getting handed out this winter. Abreu will regret not taking the LAA offer.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh no no

those players are older and significantly crappier than Bay. Significantly. Pass.

by Buzzy on Oct 21, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but if we upgrade at other positions they are passable short term

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We can't really upgrade

at other positions. The only positions that we could realistically upgrade is SS and LF. I for one don’t see a much better option at SS than Lowrie or perhaps someone like Hardy if he can be obtained for little. That is not going to make a huge difference. Then there is LF. Since in particular Dye and Damon are not even marginal options, and Abreu is not realistic or young or even that good, you are left with Bay or Holliday or internal and that is it.

by Buzzy on Oct 21, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1B/3B/SS can all be upgraded

Lowell/Ortiz straight platoon with Lowell playing some 3B from time to time. I’d also not be so sure Lowell could not be traded in the right situation with the Sox picking up salary or swaping for another bad 1 year left on contract situation.

Lowrie will amout to nothing more than a utility player.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

first no one, absolutely no one, is going to want Lowell. He is expensive, old and comming off a year where his hip was an issue. DHing Lowell at the expense of Papi likely make little sense too-we are stuck with Papi, and his hitting is likely to be as good as Lowell’s, especially against RHP. We can’t carry a 12 million dollar platoon for LHP. So what you are proposing is in no way a realistic upgrade.

As for Lowrie, maybe maybe not. But what you say does not have a basis in fact. Lowrie in 1/2 a full year as a rookie had a 750 OPS and was a far better fielder both by traditional fielding stats (he did not make a single error) and by UZR than the revered Gonzo. The only issue for Lowrie is health. We are not magically going to land a great shortstop.

by Buzzy on Oct 21, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree Lowell could be swaped for another bad contract or could be attractive to a team if we eat some contract

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who would you suggest at 3b?

by Buzzy on Oct 21, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Youk FT @ 3B

Morneau or A. Gonz/ (the good one from SD) @ 1B

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both are unlikely

And, if available, each would cost a ton.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 21, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morneau will be gone if they want to keep Mauer, they can't keep both

so he is not out of the question, and SD’s farm system is terrible.

I’d also suggest if we resign Bay, looking into Derosa since he can give pretty much everyone a day off when needed.

Derosa might actually be the perfect target this winter once the LF situation is settled.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morneau has said he will stop speaking to Mauer if he leaves.

So I’d take that to mean we’re not getting him from Minny.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

has nothing to do with being traded?

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True...

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morneau is signed through 2013

Minnesota loses $30 million in payroll after 2010. Why would they trade Morneau?

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 21, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Derosa is 34 and looks to be on the decline.

He had a wOBA of .327 and a UZR of -6 at 3B. Although he is versatile, I think he might be a little expensive for a bench player. Also, I think I heard that he wants to be a starter somewhere next year.

You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970

by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kotchman/Lowrie/Bowden/ 2 lower level prospects

for Morneau would get it done.

Get a FA stop gap @ SS for 2010.

Morneau is never brought up but is probably the most available.

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See above.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not even close

But thanks for playing.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 21, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That deal would not happen.

The twins wanted Lester, Masterson, Ellsbury, and Lowrie for Johan a couple years back. They either undervalue other teams’ prospects, or overvalue their own stars. For Morneau, they would probably ask for Buchholz plus others.

by Schulz on Oct 21, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They'd ask a lot for Morneau

Because if they trade Morneau and got spare parts, they’d likely lose Mauer as a FA.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 22, 2009 7:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

true

by Schulz on Oct 22, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

What contract? Which player? It’s very easy to say move this guy or that guy. Why would the Sox trade Lowell for another “bad contract?” Mike Lowell is one year removed from being a pretty valuable player. I doubt the Sox would get value for him—and I think they have little interest in taking on another “bad contract.”

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 21, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sandy is taking a page from NG's book and not suggesting solutions.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You had to have known I was going to ask you this:

Why so down on Jed?

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Until he can prove he can stay healthy he is written off

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So many issues with that logic.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

only for the sake of fighting actual logic

you cannot depend on him until he proves he can stay healthy. how does that not make sense?

VARITEK MUST GO
Brandon Webb in 2010

by gizmosandy on Oct 21, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not like he's been breaking down over and over.

It was ONE injury that had complications resulting from bad management and bad luck.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever the reason

He ain’t been there. He’s in and out like a fiddler’s elbow. You may love him, but there’s no way you can say you can depend on him.

He hasn’t been able to stay in the lineup any more than 6 hours at a time.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 22, 2009 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Short of that one game against the MFY this season, no one has. :)

We can’t “depend” on anyone, anyways. He’s the best option we have, considering skill and cost – of course we should have backup plans, because not having them would be irresponsible. Just saying, no reason to completely write off Jed because of a bad season.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously there’s no reason to write Jed off, but I feel like we’re having the same conversation now that we had a year ago. We need to solidify SS and hoping that Jed Lowrie can get healthy does no do the trick.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 23, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except we're not hoping that a relatively unexamined wrist heals this time around.

It’s been fixed, and now it just needs rest, much like it would without any injuries or surgeries.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you're right.

But doctors always act like they know what is going on. They never really do. When a guy has been injured consistently for a year and a half we should not rely on him. No matter what the doctors say.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 24, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True...

We just have to hope that the treatment that he finally received for it, combined with a nice, long break off, will let it heal properly.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 24, 2009 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 24, 2009 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He hasn't had enough time to prove it.

You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970

by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This.

Besides, he was better than a utility player with a broken wrist. How could he NOT be better than one when healthy? His minor league numbers back up what you could project from his injured numbers too.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there would really be no reason to sign them if we are just worried about short term….if you wanna upgrade other positions….trade bay for some prospects and give Reddick a shot

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 21, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't trade a player that we don't have control over anymore.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree with Buzzy

Gizmo, Abreu, Damon, and (especially) Dye are significant downgrades from Jason Bay.

Abreu, Damon, and Dye will all be 36-years old next season. Bay will turn 32 next September. None of the four players are good defensively. But Bay has the highest WAR, even though his defensive metrics are hurt by playing at Fenway. Bay is the best offensive player of the four. He had a .397 wOBA last year, compared to .376 wOBA for Damon, .367 wOBA for Abreu, and .344 for Dye. Because Bay is much younger, he is far more likely to continue to be a very good offensive player. Damon will not be the same offensive player if he leaves the Bronx. Dye flat out sucks, and Abreu has far less power than Bay.

Another thing to note: While you want a short-term (I’m guessing 2-year) contract for those players, Bay is more valuable—even in a longer contract. Bay can replace Papi at DH in a couple of years because he’s still likely to be a good hitter. You can’t say the same for the other three players. Abreu, Damon, and Dye should decline far more rapidly than Bay. In fact, Dye hasn’t been that good in a few years. And Abreu hasn’t had a year as good as Bay’s this year since 2006.

The only viable option to re-signing Jason Bay is signing Holliday, who will be expensive.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 21, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point about moving Bay to DH.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 23, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't trade Paps in the off season

I would trade him in midseason, if his WHIP count is not improving, that to me is a sign he is either in decline or needs a change of scenery. Paps had a pretty good year for a closer. It wasn’t his stellar 2007 performance, but he is still a very good closer.

by superferret on Oct 21, 2009 7:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the only player that interest me out of Abreu, Damon and Figgins is..

Figgins, mainly for his speed. There is no point in even looking at Abreu and Damon. Both of them are just overpaid DHs…

by superferret on Oct 21, 2009 7:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Crawford

Carl Crawford will be a Free Agent too….i would take him over Figgins

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 21, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not this year

in 2010. He is a pretty poor offensive player, and I doubt the Rays let him hit the FA market.

by Buzzy on Oct 21, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

poor

how is he a poor offensive player….hes not a power hitter but i would not classify crawford as a poor offensive player

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 21, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

.336 career OBP is the definition of offensive poverty

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 21, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Career .343 wOBA.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not forget about his 17.1 UZR last year.

The only problem is that we would need to get the power lost in Bay from somewhere else.

You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970

by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't help much in LF.

It’d drop a lot, esp. at first. And we’d also need to replace the baserunners we’d lose.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970

by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Poor is a bad word

but he is a very ordinary offensive player. He is an excellent defensive player, and overall is a better player than Bay. He will be traded however.

by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"overall is a better player than bay"

gonna have to disagree with you there

by revived0103 on Oct 25, 2009 4:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unless there's a rule against it (quite possibly)...

They could easily use the cheap option and then trade him.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't the only restriction be in the contract?

You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970

by BoldandBrash on Oct 21, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IDK.

I’m not too good with rules and stuff like that.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First time I've seen VORP since FJM retired.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 21, 2009 9:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Finkle is Einhorn, Holliday is Renteria, VORP tastes like chicken

Anyone remember the 2004 off season?

The money was about equal, as was the length of the deal, for either OC (known quantity) and Renteria (Sexier FA). Sox went with the sexy pick, the unknown quantity….how’d that work out. Lets not make the same mistake twice shall we?

When all other things are equal, if the best two options in front of you are the devil you know and the one you don’t – go with what you know and limit your risk.

3. Trades -
Morneau isn’t going anywhere, Minnesota is opening that new ballpark next year, their revenue will pick up a good tick and if they do nothing else they make a run next year with Mauer and Morneau together and deal either/both once they learn if Mauer can or can’t be signed end of next year.

King Felix – sign ability isn’t the only thing here. They’ve got a lot of money, but little talent. If they moved Felix it would be for something like the Santana deal where moving one stud gets you 4 or 5 potential stars.

Jose Reyes – I’m not crazy about this guy. he’s good defensively and has a lot of speed, but he’s a bit of a head case. Either way I think the Mets move him before they move Wright – and one of those two pieces should be floated because the Mets need help EVERYWHERE else on that team.

HanRam – Pipedream deal here, point was more that I’d rather move heaven and earth for him then Adrain Gonzalez based what else you can get at SS vs 1st.
If you are going to sacrifice the farm for a single player, go for HanRam

by JonnyNYC on Oct 22, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Your comparisons don't really make a lot of sense

1)The Holliday/Bay issue is a competely different thing than Renteria/Cabrera. Let’s look at them side by side:

In 2004 Renteria had a truely poor offensive season-wOBA of 0.312. Prior to that he was always all over the board offensively-wOBAs ranging from 0.302 to 0.382. In the field he had been pretty good before coming to the Sox, but was bad with them and below average after.The Sox were taking the gamble that Renteria was more the 6.8 WAR player of 2003 and not the 1.9 WAR player of 2004. OCab was also a player who was always all over the board-he was a poor overall player in 04, but a good one in 03 and 05. In that case you were dealing with two volitile commodities, and the Sox lost the gamble.

Bay and Holliday are much more predictable. Despite Holliday’s “ball-shot” defensive play-he is always solid in LF, while Bay always cost runs in LF. Let’s assume Holliday is only the offensive player he was in Oakland. This is an underestimation since when you remove April from his stats and adjust for park he was actually nearly as good offensively as Bay. But-let’s just assume this as a lower bound, then adjusted for a whole season he is still far more valuable overall than Bay. Holliday has a 2.9 WAR in just his time with Oakland. Bay had a total 3.4 WAR with the Sox. Defense matters, and Holliday’s defensive edge over Bay far outweighs Bay’s offensive edge over Holliday. When you combine this with the fact that he is younger and will likely age better, it is a no-brainer. Holliday is worth significanly more than Bay. I still think given the Boras angle and the draft picks, the Sox go for Bay.

2)As for King Felix, again you are making a bad comparison. The Twins had to move Santana since he was about to hit free agency. Furthermore, Santana was far older than King Felix. The Mariners can still contend in the West given their payroll, and are not going to take a major step back in terms of a 23 year old front line talent for guys way down the road. We don’t have prospects like Lowrie, Ellsbury and Lester to throw at Seattle now as the Twins were reported to want for Johan. We have guys like Kelly and Westmoreland who are real talents but are not MLB close. Wont happen-not in a million years.

by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 22, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OC was a PR disaster waiting to happened..

OC wore out his welcome in New England very fast. Not on the field, but off the field. Even with his off the field antics, OC has gone through a bunch of clubs in the last couple years, especially his short time with the lesser Sox on the South Side. Both OC and Lowe’s off field antics pretty much deep sixed any serious contract offers by the Sox FO in 2004/2005

Rent-a-wreck was just one of those signings that didn’t work out. I think he could had stayed if his fielding was better, but Boston is a pretty harsh place for a player and its manic depressive media, Lugo was a signing I never was wild about in the first place. Theo and the FO seemed fixated on a infielder with a high OBP than a strong infield leader. It seems they want a Nomah and/or Jeter hybrid.

All your trade scenarios are just fantasies. They remind me more of the Vikings’ Hershel Walker trade with the Cowboys, it looks good on paper but in reality it isn’t practical. One has to go cheaper and more of a prospect than a proven MVP like Morneau, or Cy Young candidate like Felix Hernandez. Might as well put Zach Greinke in the mix.. The Sox are better off looking for the Russell Branyans, Trevor Cahills, and Adam Jones in which a trade isn’t going to cost 4-5 proven players and prospects.

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree completely

Also, losing OC worked out great for the Sox, who got Ellsbury and Lowrie as compensation picks—and won another WS without OC.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 22, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes sir.

by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"proven MVP like Morneau"

Might want to avoid saying “proven” when discussing that particular season’s award.
Other than that, agree completely.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am not talking about this year, Cabrón.

Morneau won the AL MVP in 2006, therefore he is a proven MVP… much like Pedroia is a proven MVP. Geez.

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cabrón?

The literal meaning, the Cuban meaning, or the insulting meaning?

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cuban meaning??!?

Entonces, Ud. utiliza con “Google Translation” esta frase,

Ud. es un pinche Cabrón.

El maladito palabra es igualmente en mundo hispanico.

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In Cuba (and Guatamala, IIRC), it can mean intelligent person.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And I'll trust my Cuban friend, who has a lot of family still in Cuba, over Sandy's preferred method, thanks.

I simply asked if you were calling me a goat, intelligent (would have to have been sarcastic, I guess), or any one of the assorted curses that can be derived from the word.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, this isn't solving anything.

Ferret, I’m sorry for whatever I did to piss you off. If it was the icon thing, you have to understand that I was just interested in why you chose to have a seemingly random picture as one of the first things someone sees when you post something. Most people’s icons have some kind of story behind them, and I find them particularly fascinating. I asked several times, and you never replied with any sort of explanation. If that was meant to be a hint that you didn’t want to talk about it, then I totally missed it while generally being a moron.
You bring a lot of baseball knowledge to OTM, along with random bits of info about medical stuff and world events and I respect your opinion on pretty much every topic we discuss. Perhaps you just don’t like the way I look at baseball, my sense of humor, or you think I get too involved in OTM. I really don’t know what it is that has pushed you to the point of personal attacks, but I hope you can forgive me for whatever it is, and perhaps tell me how I can avoid repeating this.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, I don't care, and I shouldn't be insulting...

but you are being pedantic in polite terms, and super anal retentive in insulting terms. I just mention in passing that Morneau is a AL MVP winner, and it isn’t going to be easy to pick him up, or as Shylock has stated, it is going to cost the Sox a pound of flesh. I don’t care if his winning was contentious or not, he won it, he is a MVP and All Star.

by superferret on Oct 23, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yo Superferret

You’re a fan of New Zeland Rugby team?

"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish

by bloodysock04 on Oct 23, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I use to follow the All Blacks...

but I haven’t in a couple years, I have been following futbol, like the Chivas, and Colo Colo in Santiago and Boca Juniors in Buenos Aires… I will try to pick it up when the World Cup is at Aotearoa in 2011.

by superferret on Oct 23, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boca? C'mon...

RIVER PLATE RULEZ :P
Seriously, I very much enjoy your opinions here! And your insides from the West Coast!
Keep it up man!

"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish

by bloodysock04 on Oct 23, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah, I am probably going to get banned..

I have gotten in trouble before for being mean and insulting.

I am just happy that Chile got into the World Cup,and pissed that Maradonna’s squad made it. However Rossi should have a good Cup.

by superferret on Oct 23, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't ban you, and wouldn't even if I could.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I tend to pick up small details in things.

That’s how I process information. I agreed with everything else you said, and I just wanted to point out that if you were going to use an award to prove your point, it might be better to choose one that wasn’t one of the least defensible in recent memory – it’d be like me saying that Bush was the “proven” choice of the people.

I honestly don’t know much Spanish, and I gave you the benefit of the doubt. I’m pretty sure that cabron is the masculine form of cabra, from what I can find online* – makes sense to me, based on what I know of French.

*Actually, for shits and giggles, I could have assumed that you were calling me a pimp, if you trust this: http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cabr%C3%B3n

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh cry me a river

Diga su amigo cubano sobre este historiador cubano…

http://tinyurl.com/yfdaa52

Goat in Spanish is cabra , hence the term “Chupacabra” aka Goatsucker, “Chupar” means to suck. ,

No, I basically called you a strong insulting term.

http://www.spanishdict.com/translate/cabron

Ahora, su lectura por Español para esta noche.

by superferret on Oct 23, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh-Huh Sure....

Just go to Calle Ocho in Miami’s Little Havana and start screaming “¡Pinche Cabrón!” “¡Pinche Cabrón!” “¡Pinche Cabrón!”, to everyone you meet. I would suggest you write your will, make sure your health insurance is up to par, the ER has your blood type and you don’t mind missing some teeth after you get beaten to a bloody pulp. If you want to add some more insults, then try “hijo de puta” which is always a crowd pleaser and “putaña” for older women.

I worked in Latin America, from Zona Rosa to Puntas Arenas. I know my flacos from my pendejos, my Porteños from my Chilangos. Each country has its own slang and insults, like Güevon is popular in Chile, (a derivative of “Huevos” yes, the same word for “Huevos Rancheros”
"

by superferret on Oct 23, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This year MVP award hasn't even been announced...

Look up the definition of prove. I didn’t use the word as a future tense, I used it as a past participle, it means the existence by evidence. Morneau won the AL MVP. He is a MVP player. I didn’t imply he was going to win in 2009, given he was out for most of September and his surgeries will be more of a factor in his worth than his MVP award. My guess is his teammate will beat out Teixiera for this year 2009 AL MVP. The NL MVP is already a given who is going to win it.

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"that" meaning 2006, when he most likely didn't deserve it.

One of the more controversial MVP awardings in recent history, esp. considering that he was nearly 3 WAR behind Sizemore.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, stop being a dweeb...

Morneau won the award, whether he deserved it or not. It is an honor. Whether he deserved it or not, he was in contention and won it. He led his team into the playoffs, so let it be. MVPs aren’t going to be traded lightly, unless they are a shell of their former self…

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it doesn't matter...

He won it. Sizemore didn’t get his team into the post season in 2006. If you have a problem write to the Baseball writers of America for botching the vote.

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trust me, they've gotten more than enough flak for it.

Thanks for insulting me in English, so we don’t have any issues with connotations.
I generally try to ignore the awards that are handed out, but in this case, like you said, it affects the chance that he’d be traded. Still though, he was definitely NOT the most valuable player in AL in 2006 – if you want to argue that only playoff teams can have MVPs, then you might want to acknowledge that he wasn’t even the most valuable player on his team (Mauer).
Sizemore was much better than Morneau that season. Look at the process, not the results, especially given the amount of “luck” that affected this situation. If wanting the right people to be recognized for their deeds makes me a dweeb, then I accept that label with pride.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sizemore plays a completely different position...

I am not arguing that Morneau is Tacoriffic, (look up Taco John’s for that portmanteau) but MVP isn’t an award for the best sabremetric stats. Much like I am still pissed that Yaz lost it to Boog Powell in 1971, but Powell got the Orioles to the playoffs. Ditto for Albert Belle not getting the award in 1995, because Baseball Writers hated his guts.

He won it, he is an anchor for the Twinkies, they are going to demand Roy Halladay like terms for any trade, and he will be a FA when he is at his prime, if his physical ailments don’t impede his performance.

There is no point in pursuing any of these guys that JohnnyNYC has mentioned. The Sox need power, but it can’t cost 4-5 players/prospects..

by superferret on Oct 23, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fact that he won an MVP

Has absolutely nothing to do with his value. Players can be accurately evaluated without relying on an often incorrectly assigned award.

by Gnick on Oct 23, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about bringing back Manny?

Half kidding here :-)

"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish

by bloodysock04 on Oct 22, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It is hard to gauge Peter Gammons latest blurbs...

but he pretty much hinted that the Dodgers wished they only signed an one year contract with the Man Child. Anyway, Manny is having problems with fastballs insides. I wouldn’t be surprise that he is traded to Cleveland in mid season….

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Manny's skills are finally eroding

That means Omar Minaya will finally be interested. Look for the Mets to try to get ManRam, and extend his contract for four more years.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 22, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

I lol'd so hard I almost threw up in my mouth!

I Rec’d this Sir.

"Beltre, 30, is pretty inconsistent at the plate and not a very reliable fielder" Eli Greenspan in the daily dish

by bloodysock04 on Oct 22, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've been given the impression...

…that Gammons hates Manny.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 22, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Gammons feels kind of betrayed by Manny..

Gammons can be labelled as the Sox FO’s stenographer to a huge Sox apologist/cipher. He spent some time with Manny before the 2008 season, and Manny talking about his legacy, beside his electability to the HOF.

Manny turns around and acts like the Sox are the British and he, Manny, is an IRA prisoner at the Maze prisoner, who demands respect, and be treated as a prisoner of war. He also decided to piss off his teammates to no end, mainly don’t bring his gripes with his contract into the clubhouse. I don’t see Gammons as an objective observer on anything Sox.

What I think what happened is that Manny was under the influence of Boras, who thought Manny could increase his market value by being traded by the July deadline. (with Boras getting a cut, instead of Manny staying with the Sox and the opt year being used by the Sox in Manny’s contract negotiated by Jeff Moorad in 2000 )

I think also Gammons has been talking to Media Whore, Dr. Steinberg, who has no problem in letting all hang out about his time in the Asylum at Chavez Ravine, given Dr. Steinberg was unceremoniously dumped by Frank McCourt and Dennis Mannion, the Dodgers COO.

by superferret on Oct 22, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair points Buzzy - comparing different things though

1- My point was not to compare the ‘04 SS FA’s to the ‘09 LF FA’s – I agree there is no comparison there.

I did want to compare the options @ ss in ’04 to the options in LF in ’09. OC to Renteria, Bay to Holliday. One is a known quantity on your team, the other one younger and slightly better statistically in each case.

Holliday is younger, better defensively and likely a slightly better overall offensive player, I wouldn’t mind him on the Sox at all.

Bay led AL OFs in HR’s, RBIs, SLG, OPS and 2nd in runs & BB. Very solid stats while playing in Boston, and fitting in well with the team.

Right now I think Bay is less risk for about the same money. As the negotiations go it might make more sense to go after Holliday if offering more years gets it done. I wouldn’t want to go past 4 years with Bay and at the end of the day you’d get picks back for Bay that you’d lose for Holliday, so that end is a wash.

2) Trades – again we’re missing on comparison.

King Felix – Not comparing why the M’s would move him to the Twins, saying IF they move him they would ask for a similar deal to Santana’s.
Clay would have to be in that deal, among others.

I don’t think the Twins are moving anyone this off season and I don’t think HanRam is available. That was how I got to Jose Reyes, as someone who could be available perhaps – though I’m not sure he’s a fit really at all.

by JonnyNYC on Oct 22, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A few things.

1)I get the point. By the way I would say Bay is better offensively than Holliday. However I think you are underestimating just how much better Holliday is overall. If you believe things like WAR and the use of UZR in WAR, than Holliday is about 2 times as valuable as Bay! If they really were the same in cost, and we ignored draft picks, I would drop Bay like a hot potato and pick up Holliday. But Holliday will be up to 5 million more per year and will cost a first round pick. So I say Bay is the way to go. His trajectory worries me, but I think it is the best thing to do.

2)Where did I say Felix to the Twins? What I was saying was that the Twins wanted a haul for an past peak pitcher who was about to ask for 20 million a year. So how much will a team as for a pre-peak to peak pitcher who costs little for the next few? Add the fact that that team is not at all payroll constrained like the Twins and your answer is-they will not ask for anything because it is not on the table. Or maybe it will be Kelly, Bard, Westmoreland, Buchholz, Reddick and Anderson, or something crazy like that. Theo will not do that. HanRam is not available, and I hvae no idea in the world how Morneau came up.

by Buzzy on Oct 22, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Grammar sucks, I'm not sold on the defensive differences.

I mean to say “comparing why the M’s would move him to why the twins would move Santana” not why they’d move him to the Twins, sorry ’bout that.

Regarding defense, haven’t looked into UZR at all honestly, it seems like a math overkill stat to me. From the basic defensive measurements:

Bay had 0 errors this year, Put Out 96% of his TCs, 15 assists (thank you Green Monster) and a range factor of 2.19. All of these stats exceed Hollidays.

From the above I’m not going to say Bay is absolutely better than Holliday in the field, but I’m also not going to say Bay is that a poor enough fielder where Holliday could be considered twice as valuable to the Sox.

I think the decision between these two should be based on the offensive side of the ball first.
I think there are plenty of stats that favor Bay offensively
I think there are just as many stats that favor Holliday offensively
I think Bay performing in Boston is a big deal
I think Holliday being 2 yrs younger is a big deal
I’m also reasonably certain Bay is a Type A FA as well, so if the Sox go with Holliday they lose a 1st but gain a 1st back.

End of the day, I like the bird in hand with Bay, but if the negotiations don’t go well – Holliday works just fine.

Bigger question is what you do next? Scutaro at SS is not something I look forward too

by JonnyNYC on Oct 22, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jonny, use the reply button, please.

UZR isn’t math overkill at all. It breaks the field up into smaller spaces, gives chances of a play being made in each space, then rewards/punishes the player accordingly. (Overly simplified version of it)
DO NOT USE RANGE FACTOR, and try to avoid errors or anything related – too much subjectivity. Scorers generally don’t give the fielder a chance at the ball unless they made contact with it, which means slow (or bad read) guys don’t get punished for not getting to balls they should, while fast guys get punished for balls they shouldn’t have been able to come close to.
Holliday’s defense wasn’t very good this year, for whatever reason, but he’s been far better than Bay over the length of both of their careers.
We don’t have Bay in hand – he could very easily end up signing elsewhere.
No one rationally wants to see Scutaro out there as our SS next season, because that means we fell for a guy coming off a late career year, and we likely signed him for far too many years for far too much money.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 22, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bay is definitely not in hand

if his agent has any sense at all, he’s going to wait until Holliday has securely signed somewhere to sign, because right now, everyone would take Holliday over Bay, but once Holliday is off the market, Bay will be the only real proven hitter who can field and isn’t too old on the market.

by wolf9309 on Oct 23, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

reply moving forward, sorry ’bout that.

Thanks for the G rated conversation about UZR, I was on FanGraphs for a while – I can see the light of this now between yours and buzzy’s comments.

One final point – the Sox don’t have Bay in hand no, but they do have valid and relevant stats from Bay in the perfect environment, their own. As good as Holliday’s #’s are, there is a minute sample in the AL and even smaller one in Fenway. So my point was more of a known quantity with Bay – not totally known – but certainly much more so then Holliday.

That’s what I meant by in hand.

Though after looking at fan graphs, I need to adjust my thinking because I think Holliday is the better play now.

I feel like John Kerry.

by JonnyNYC on Oct 23, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are conversions that can be made using park and league adjustments.

Holliday would likely look even better in Fenway, even accounting for the small difference in pitching talent.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 23, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday’s defense wasn’t very good this year-

This is true but in the head to head comparison, even this year, his defense is better than Bay’s by a lot. Just a totally unscientific guess, but Holliday at age 30 would probably be totally neutral as measured in Fenway for 1/2 of his games by UZR.

by Buzzy on Oct 23, 2009 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs