10/19 - There May Not Be Stupid Questions, But There Sure Are Some Stupid Answers

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 5:00 AM EDT in Daily Links Comment 113 comments

Debuting the header today, folks - still a work in progress, probably always will be. Any suggestions would be great.

Well, since that's the balloon boy of the post, let's move on to ACTUAL news.

Miguel Tejada Is Right Answer, But Not to Biggest Question - NESN.com

Put down the bottle, Mr. Beattie. Seriously, Tejada is probably plan G for Theo at the SS position, right before a 4 man outfield.

Big-Name Free Agents on Menu for Red Sox This Offseason - NESN.com

So many issues with this link - a few big ones:

Marco Scutaro: Along with Figgins, he's one of the best possible solutions to the Red Sox' shortstop dilemma. No one's paying attention, but Scutaro had a season to remember in 2009 -- with 35 doubles, 90 walks and an OBP of .379, he quickly vaulted to the top of the heap among the AL's best offensive shortstops. If the Red Sox can get Scutaro to scoot into Boston this winter, he'd be a huge boost to their offense.

1) They never mentioned Figgins helping the SS situation at all in his little blurb, most likely because he doesn't. 2) He's not one of the best possible solutions - he had a huge outlier of a career year, is getting close to NG's age cut-off, and he's not going to be cheap either. 3) I love when the Mainstream Media accuses us of ignorance, when they're the ones who decide what the majority of people hear and see. Besides, Scutaro's gotten quite a bit of recognition around the blogosphere.

Continuing the breakdown after the break, along with some more links.

Orlando Cabrera: If nothing else, there's sentimental value.

Johnny Damon: Perhaps he's Cabrera's opposite sentimentally, but the 24 homers and 36 doubles in 2009 are hard to ignore. If Jason Bay doesn't end up back in Boston, maybe Damon should.

Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Magglio Ordonez, Jermaine Dye, Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu: All of a sudden, heavy-hitting corner outfielders are a dime a dozen. The Sox would love to have Bay back in Boston, but if they can't get a deal done, there are many contingency plans in the works. Any one of these guys would be a serviceable, if not ideal, replacement for Bay next season.

OCab - no "if."

Damon - get off the bottle.

Holliday - sure, if he's cheaper than Bay.

Vlad - MAYBE.

Crawford - if the Rays let him go, sign him immediately and then call up Friedman and laugh your asses off.

Maggs - hell no, we weren't going to take him in exchange for getting rid of Lugo, fool.

Dye - again, MAYBE, but only if there's no one else decent left.

Godzilla - short LF =/= no need for knees.

Abreu - sure, if he's WAY cheaper than Bay or Holliday and they're both gone.

NESN's reporters are really disappointing me of late - let's see if the independent press is less dumb.

The Blue Sox: Why Boston's Boys Are the Democrats Of Baseball Bleacher Report
Oh...kay... Umm... I'm going to move on, because I'd really rather not start up a flame war (although, I will say that it is weird to be a conservative* and like the Sox). The article is well-written, and describes the parallel better than most could. It also shows the weird connection that baseball and politics has always had.

*Yes, conservative. Not Republican. Right now, I need that difference to exist, because the GOP is being way too stupid for me to support them.

Looking back, looking forward - Chad Finn's Touching All The Bases

Mattingly may be ready to step up to the plate in managerial position - The Boston Globe

2. Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks - He is expected to be shopped by the Diamondbacks, and there should be discussions with the Red Sox. Stephen is not the OPS machine that big brother J.D. is (.748 this season) but his other numbers weren’t bad for a shortstop: .261, 12 homers, 65 RBIs (only three fewer than J.D.). He also made only 11 errors. Who knows if hitting in a more patient lineup will help his OPS?

3. Victor Martinez, C, Red Sox - If he is the full-time, 100- to 110-game catcher next season, scouts believe he needs to shorten his release to be better at throwing out runners. Martinez, according to one scout, "long-arms his throws. It just takes him too long to get the ball down to second base. In order to combat that, you either have to have pitchers who can hold runners on base, which the Red Sox don’t, or have them do slide-steps and things of that nature, which they don’t like to do, either.’’ Gary Tuck supposedly is one of the best catching instructors in the game, so one would think he’d improve this with Martinez.

5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres - This is the fellow I suspect the Sox will go after. They would then move Kevin Youkilis to third, with Ortiz and Mike Lowell sharing DH duties. Gonzalez came very close to getting traded to the Mariners at the deadline in a five-for-one (Seattle wouldn’t give up a certain fifth minor leaguer). Only question is, do the Sox have enough players to give San Diego?

6. Ron Mahay, LHP, Twins - He would love to re-sign with the Twins but wouldn’t rule out a return to Boston, where he was a replacement outfielder in 1995 (.200 AB in 20 at-bats) and a pitcher in the late ’90s. "It was a long time ago, but I loved that place,’’ said Mahay. "I’ve played a lot of places in my career and lasted a long time, but I’ll never forget Boston.’’ Mahay appeared in 16 games for the Twins after being released by the Royals and had a 2.00 ERA. Among the hitters he dominates: Eric Chavez (0 for 17), Raul Ibanez (3 for 18, 9 K’s), Ichiro Suzuki (3 for 13), Joe Mauer (2 for 13), Justin Morneau (2 for 12), Alex Rodriguez (1 for 7), Jorge Posada (1 for 8), Ramirez (0 for 6).

Too tired to give this link the same service as the NESN one. Anyone else want to give it a shot?

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Speaking of stupid answers...

Jason Churchill decided to give us a spectacular look at the very depths of how bad baseball reporting can get. This is insider only, but here’s the clip:

Draft recap

Hits: Reymond Fuentes, CF (No. 28) and potentially Madison Younginer, RHP (No. 228): Fuentes is a potential difference-maker at the plate, on the bases and in the field, and Younginer touched 98 mph this spring in high school.

Miss: David Renfroe, SS (No. 107): Renfroe received $1.4 million and could end up on the mound if his bat doesn’t develop, which would certainly delay any arrival in the big leagues. — Jason A. Churchill

Congratulations Mr. Churchill. You just declared our 3rd rounder a bust while saying our first rounder—who many consider to be a lesser talent and performed good-not-great at the GCL—is a big hit. The only problem? He hasn’t made his professional debut, which means you’re criticizing him based on the same projections made by pretty much every scout in baseball, and for having a backup plan as a pitcher in case he does flair out. Good fucking show.

It’s the equivalent of saying, directly after the 2008 draft, that Casey Kelly is a big miss because, if that whole pitching thing doesn’t work out, it could take him a while to get to the bigs as a hitter.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 5:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And wasn’t Renfroe considered a possible first round talent?

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

It’s just an amazingly boneheaded, ill-researched bit of reporting. It’s hard to understand what thought processes lead to this. Was he told that Renfroe didn’t manage to get a hit this year and then built on that?

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he’s actually scouted Renfroe himself? Otherwise, it makes no sense.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he did

He did so at a time nobody else was and came up with a drastically different opinion. When was the last time Renfroe even played?

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow this is dumb

I would listen if he said “Renfroe received $1.4 milion and could end up in the hot corner if his glove doesn’t develop in the SS position…”
But this statement is insane!

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 19, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't even listen then

Because his offense is said to be plenty good for the hot corner!

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's really amazin' how dumb the MSM is!

From the:
NY Post: A-Rod is “learning” to be clutch (???) To
Joe BucK: “Sabathia’s learned to forgot Ks to pitch to contact, which caused improvement.” ( Not. Fucking. True: First 4 seasons: 7 K/9; since: 8 K/9).
Oh, on a different not: Here’s what Mr Gammons (a real journalist) has to say about the SS position:
http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/redsox/blog?post=4574840&name=gammons

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 19, 2009 6:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stolen for tomorrow's.

Gracias.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crawford

Crawford would be a great pickup for the sox if he does test the free agent market. We need another guy who is fast and can steal bases to put the pressure on the defense. right now all we really have is Ellsbury. But if you get both of them in the lineup that would be dirty

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 8:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Base stealing is the one of the most overrated aspect of the game of baseball!

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 19, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

2nd base is better than first base.

Also, distracting a pitcher causes more hittable pitches for the current batter. I’m sure there’s a graph that will “prove” that wrong, however.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

overrated?

If anything i think stealing a base is underrated. If you can steal second from first you put yourself in scoring position and a single can score you. If you stay on first you need two hits…or one big hit. Having two of the best base stealers in the AL on one team would be great for the sox.

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant overrated when you don't get on base enough

Crawford career OBP: .335 That’s very bad actually! This year he had a career year in which he has put .364 OBP: This is not elite OBP.
His 5.4 WAR is due mostly to his fielding, not to his on-base skills nor base stealing. Ironically Ellsbury’s fielding numbers in LF are similar to Crawford’s (Both are good). So basically they are the same players only Ellsbury is cheaper! So I’ll pass on signing him.

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 19, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget that Ells' OBP is pretty close to Crawford's career year level.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

So Ellsbury is actually BETTER than Crawford!

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 19, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn, I didn't check Crawford's OBP numbers.

He always struck me as a patient batter – my bad.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

makes sense

Yea i gotcha, that makes sense. But i was never saying he wasnt as good as Ellsbury and we should get crawford instead of ells. I was talking about putting crawford in left in place of Bay. Just to get some more speed into our lineup full of base cloggers

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Base cloggers?" Not sure if serious

But speed is only good when you can get on base. Crawford hasn’t shown that ability with any consistency.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If

Crawford could lend Bay his fielding skills I would feel much better about resigning Bay.

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Bay would stop pressing his back against the Monster to determine fielding position

I’d feel much better about resigning Bay.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

either way

his glove is so bad that as much as I like him I think resigning him may be a mistake.

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Bay learned to fly

I’d feel much better about resigning Bay

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 19, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Flight is your answer to EVERYTHING, SCG.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'd still have to fly the ball to the infield to make sure it got to the right person though

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 19, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How can I run a 4 minute mile?

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

By flying?

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"run"?

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It looks like you're running.

But you’re actually flying.

Move your feet.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh...kay...

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That sounds like Holliday.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Base cloggers

Base cloggers is referring to the rest of the team. We have alot of good hitters but not very much speed

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

“Base Cloggers” is maybe the least logical of all the dumb Joe Morgan-esque baseball aphorisms. I’ll let Joe Posnasnki explain why:

It really and truly astonishes me how many people — great players, big league managers, famed broadcasters — believe something along these lines: That players who can’t run should stay off the bases because they only clog them up, that the only people who should walk are speedies, that on-base percentage somehow only measures a players refusal to swing at pitches. You know, batting average makes up anywhere from about 52% (in the case of the famed Eddie "The Walking Man" Yost) to 85% (in the case of Garret "I’ll take a cab instead" Anderson) of on-base percentage. As a whole, batting average makes makes up about 70% of on base percentage. That’s a lot. To have a good on-base percentage, you have to be a good hitter. It doesn’t work any other way. The imaginary player who can’t hit but somehow manages to get on base a lot through various forms of witchcraft and black magic is just that: Imaginary. Also the concept that players can really clog the bases is ludicrous … I mean the bases are 90 feet apart. How many runners can the Molinas possibly hold up in a season?

But more, I wish anyone who say stuff like this would think about what they are really saying. They are saying slow players should stay off the bases. Just stay off. Slow players should swing wildly at more or less every pitch — walking ain’t helping the club Chubby! Slowpokes should hit .052 with no walks, and all their hits should be home runs. They might be allowed an occasional sac fly too. And productive outs. That’s how you win! They are saying that unless you are a certain kind of player, outs are better than walks, an extra bleeding single is worth the weight of 10 walks or 100 — so go down swinging! I could be wrong — I’m probably wrong — but it seems to me that the only reason people would say stuff this ludicrous is because they want to believe in something — men being men, walks are the failure of the pitcher, hits are the only way to reckon the worth of a man.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

?

Why would i try to say that our slow runners should stay off base. That is not it at all….and i dont know where you got that from. Im just saying when they get on base they are slower. And even though its 90 feet from base to base sometimes you have to stretch singles into doubles or score from first on a double to win a game.

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You didn’t say it, but I’ve heard people on tv talk about how the slower players “clog the bases” for faster ones behind them in the lineup. I assumed this is what you meant.

The whole “base clogging” concept is why teams love to put their fast players (who generally cannot get on base) at the top of the order. And if all players had equivalnt on base skills, this might make sense. But teams put guys who cannot get on base in the first or second spot in the lineup simply because they are fast. This is idiotic.

And I had just read that Joe Posnanski rant about “base cloggers” so I thought it seemed relevant.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just calling somone a “base clogger” implies that it would be better if that player were not on base. Its hard for me to even think of a situation where someone is “clogging the bases.”

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

Maybe i used the wrong wording with base clogger then. because when i said it i was simply just stating that they were slow….not that they shouldnt get on base. But i definitely agree with putting the fast runners ahead of them to drive them in. Thats why i would probably bat Crawford up near the top. Or 9th if we couldnt find a fit.

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Get on base first, THEN worry about what to do.

Not that hard to comprehend.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If two players are equal in every other way, then faster is better than slower. But in general, I think speed is the most overrated aspect of an offensive baseball player.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

speed

I would definitely not say speed is the most overrated aspect of a player. You cant teach speed, and speed doesnt slump.

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but batting does.

And I’d rather have a guy who’s worst PAs will be better than the fast guy’s worst.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

ok but do you really think speed is the last tool to worry about when looking at a player

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much.

OBP, SLG, defense, then speed.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok agree to disagree then

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 19, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only because I have other distractions.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speed is important for defense, which is very imoprtant, so speed is important. But on the offensive side of the game, there is limited value to being fast. For example, let’s look at Chone Figgins. By all accounts he is very fast, so this should be good. He stole 42 bases this year, which is also good, except he got caught 17 times. This means that his steals were worth .33 runs over the course of the whole season. That is the equivalent of one walk. All that running for basically nothing. That is why I think speed is overrated.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 20, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what you dont take into account are all the times that fast runners can score from first on a double. Or go from first to third on a single. Or how much a fast runner on can disrupt a pitcher and make him worry too much about the runner and end up missing on pitches to the power hitters.

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 20, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And you're dramatically overvaluing that.

Since none of that matters if a guy can’t get on base well in the first place, OBP is drastically more important than speed.

Since all that is much more dangerous for the runner than an easy, power-generated stand-up double, SLG is more important than speed.

Speed is a way for guys to get things done that they can’t through good batting. It’s compensating for deficiencies in other parts of a game. But if you have those other parts then speed becomes far less useful.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 20, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Ellsbury is much faster than Youkilis. Yet, despite 103 more PA, Ellsbury scored 5 fewer runs than Youk.

If both players had the same number of PA, Youk would have scored many more runs because he gets on-base more than Ellsbury.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 20, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a speedy runner is not automatically going to score more runs than a slower runner. There are a lot of factors that go into it. In key situations a think speed is very important…but i never said i would rather have speed than other things. I just think with the lineup we have, the sox have all the guys who can produce those runs. If we get one more guy with some speed into the lineup we will be more effective

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 20, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Sox have enough team speed

Only Papi, Lowell, and VMart qualify as slow (what team has a fast catcher?). Ellsbury is fast. Bay and Drew run well. Pedroia make too many baserunning blunders, but he isn’t slow. Youk is decent on the bases.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 20, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

I also dont know why this got turned into a strictly offensive thing. Putting another fast guy in the outfield would save a lot of runs too.

by cnubsbl16 on Oct 20, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ellsbury is fast

And yet he is a poor defender.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 20, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Questionable.

I stilll can’t wrap my head around the 30 run swing in UZR. He just can’t be that bad.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 20, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All you have to do is watch him

He gets poor jumps on the ball. Sometimes his speed compensates, but not all the time. Hopefully, he’ll improve. But righ now, Ellsbury was a poor CF.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 20, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But he was good in 2008.

He was excellent in the corners (UZR/150 of 30.3 in LF and 18.2 in RF) and well above average in center (UZR/150 of 6.9). He looked to be a truly excellent fielder. But now he looks awful; so what happened?

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 20, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It could be sample size. Ells played almost 3 times as many innings in CF in 2009 compared to 2008. As for his success as a corner OF, that’s also a small sample. But, if over the course of his career he is better in LF/RF than CF, it means he gets better reads as a corner OF. Some players have trouble picking up balls hit right at them.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 20, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Early on in the discussion, I said that speed is overrated on the offensive side of the game. Generally, defensive value (which must correlate with speed) is underrated.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 20, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have a link for this, but...

I’m pretty sure I’ve seen a study somewhere that shows batters don’t hit much better with runners on. As for the other stuff:

EqBRR
Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 20, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would rather have slow runners on 38% percent of the time...

Than fast runners on 33% of the time.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You might think that because the media is in love with SB.

However, I don’t think it’s overrated.

You see, you spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball, and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. ~Jim Bouton, Ball Four, 1970

by BoldandBrash on Oct 19, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Dirty water filter debunked!

You imply with this title that the Sox are maligned by dirty water, but is that true. Let’s look at some simple numbers since 1920!

There are now 30 teams in baseball and there were fewer through most of the 89 years between 1920 and 2009. For an average let take 20 teams on average eover this 89 year period.

89/20=4.5
So on just an average basis, each team should have won the WS 4.5 times or 4.5/89=5% of the time.

The sox have won the WS 2 times in 89 years since 1920 which is 2/89=2% of the time.

So just a random management would have won the WS nearly 2+ times more over that last 89 years than the Sox management. Go fitler that, or maybe it is not dirty water that you are hearing!!

by NG on Oct 19, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

um it's a song

I think you’re reading way too much into the title… this seems irrelevant.

by wolf9309 on Oct 19, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is the most incoherent thing you've ever written

I mean, most of the time you have strong opinions that most people disagree with…but at least they are in English.

I have no idea what’s going on up there.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a joke.

I liked it personally.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As in, making fun of your love of statistics?

OK…I guess so. Kind of out of nowhere, though.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know. I appreciate the effort, but it's just... odd.

That, and it sounds like he’s blaming the current management for the failures of several previous regimes.

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am showing you the need for,

as the folks at Homeland Security are fond of saying, constant vigilance! I you have been around a while, you begin to recognize when a team may be is a rut which can lead to untenable boredom! I don’t want my days as a fair-weather fan to end this soon, but the team we put together last season, especially when it counted, was a train to boredom! I want big changes and soon.

by NG on Oct 20, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh...kay...

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 20, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Change Vlad...

to HELL NO. Seriously, watching him in the ALCS is brutally painful. He swings at EVERYTHING, and they’re not even good swings. He looks like he’s trying to chop down a tree with a spoon doing a golf swing. I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone swing the bat like that. At least with Papi his swing just looks slow, but he still looks like a human being swinging a bat.

I guess I’m just really infuriated at his inability to plate ONE SINGLE runner that ultimately would’ve given the Angels a win over the MFY.

by AJBlue7 on Oct 19, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're dead to me, Holliday

Holliday prefers Yanks/Mets over Sox

Granted, this is according to someone “in the loop” ,who could be his gardener for all I know.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His father said he wanted to see him on the Yankees.

So I’ll go with that being the basis. But we’ll see. Teix was headed to Boston every day until he signed in NY, after all.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weird seems like every FA's wanna be destination is the Yankees

It’s almost as if by saying the Yankees are interested it drives up his price tag for other teams. Weeeeeeeird. We’ll see how much he wants to play in NY when they offer him 4 yrs 48 mil.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday would make sense

for the Yankees, but I bet they will not sign him. I think they would like to project Jackson in CF, and then still have Gardner/Melky. While neither of these guys hits like a LF (and Gardner’s glove is wasted there) I suspect that they may try home grown. Perhaps they try to keep damon for the very short term. There is also the possibility that Jeter will need to play in left sooner rather than later (despite his big UZR improvement of this year).

Holliday will go where he can get the best constract (duh!). So talking up the Mets and Yankees (2 highest payrolls in MLB) makes sense for him too.

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

best constract

and the best contract too.

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they make a hard push for him either.

That’s why I said 4/48. He’s probably going to want alot more annually and for a longer term, but if he wants to take a discount in years and AAV then fine, we’ll take him. Worst comes to worst we can resign Damon for a year. Ajax IMO is going to need at least another half season in Triple A. Most, including myself, believe the power will come with age, but the strikeouts are a killer. He’s gotta learn to be a little more discerning with the eye or he will most definitely not turn into the star we all want him to be. He’ll end up being a poor man’s Mike Cameron.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

the Ks without the slugging was very weird, and he seemed lucky (his babip was .390) but he is talented and young. I son’t think he gets his shot next year (he will probably be a late season callup) but I think they project him full time in 2011, right?

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he should be ready by 2011

A year and a half to two full years in Scranton should be good enough.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why would that Yanks not go after Holliday?

Their 2010 payroll obligations are “only” at $166M right now. Adding a player for $15M/yr would be a drop in the bucket. They need a LF’er (not to mention a DH), and its hard to believe they’ll just go with youth. So either they bring Damon back shortterm, or they go get the big fish. Judging from their recent history, I’m guessing they go for the big fish.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because it'd probably be 15mm/yr

for many years. The Yankees are racking up longterm obligation after longterm obligation. Even they can’t keep doing that and still exploit the FA market in 3 years time. They’ll be left with another broken down, aging team without much ways to inject top-tier talent.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus they're going to have to fill in some of those other positions.

For instance, either they put Hughes in the rotation and need a good pen arm, or they keep him in the pen and need a legit #5, assuming they keep Pettitte.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully they’ll just pencil in Joba again.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joba's def penciled in the starting rotation.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I missing someone, then?

CC, Burnett, Joba, X, X
If Pettitte is back, there’s still an X depending on Hughes’ status.

I mean, you guys aren’t serious with Chad Gaudin right?

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lackey!

No. I’d imagine we can squeeze another season out of Pettitte. The plan on paper is CC AJ Andy Joba and Hughes. Not exactly fear inducing I know. I don’t know what the deal is with Wang, recovering from shoulder surgery he’s most likely not going to be counted on for anything next year. I’m sure they will most definitely give Mitre, Gaudin, Towers a good look. We have a couple young kids, Nova or McAllister who could be candidates later on in the year.

But yea Joba and Hughes at the end of the rotation is a bit shaky. I’m sure Cash has a few tricks up his sleeve though.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there going to be a push to keep Hughes in the ‘pen similar to what we’ve seen with Joba?

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From the Media and fans?

Of course, same shit all over again same as last winter, it’s gonna be horrible. The front office is committed to them being starters, as they should be. Everybody talks about how dominant Mariano has been, but most don’t realize he was a failed starter until he was 26 then made the transition. If either Huges or Joba are gonna be releivers in the future, the Yanks FO is gonna make damn sure starting is not an option first.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's going to be the media AND the fans

I can’t remember a time where I logged to PSA without finding a (fan)post called: Joba should be a starter/reliever so I guess this will be THE winter story only this time it’ll be twice!

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Oct 19, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's no refuge.

It’s all in the papers, on the sports radio stations, it’s horrible. BTW fuck Jeff Mathis. Piece of shit.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ha.

After you guys wiggled out of the inning with the bases loaded, I thought it was yours. Too bad. (And I can’t believe I’m actively rooting for the Angels.)

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know.

I did a fist pump. YIKES.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a Joba-esque one, for the record.

Goddamn that DeMarlo Hale.

by Bloggy on Oct 19, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry, nobody can disrespect the game of baseball like Joba Chamberlain

You’re safe.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In part

because Cashman has a big stake in the younger players (Jackson, Gardner and Melky), in part because Jeter is going to the OF (perhpas kicking and screaming) and in part because I think they would rather have Damon back for a 1 year to let this all play out. Indeed they could sign him, it is just a hunch that they will not.

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Jeter issue will definitely be interesting in a few years, but after this season they probably think hes got another few at SS. I just can’t believe they will play a bat as light as Melky/Gardner/jackson in the corner spot. Keeping Damon might take a two ro three year deal, and that is a strong possibility, but if I were them, I would go get a real bat for the OF. Hopefully they agree with you guys, because that will definitely help our position in talks with Holliday/Bay.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 19, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If The Yanks start two of Melky/ Gardner/ Jackson in the OF

that is a bad offense. Not gonna happen. I think they resign Damon then make a run at Crawford end of 2010. Heck, Matsui could even be brought back for a year to DH.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 19, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

Damon is so bad in the outfield, that the team is probably better off with Melky in LF and Gardner in CF (excluding the Holliday issue). Damon’s WAR in 2009-2.8. He was minus 12 in LF by UZR. With a decent fielding year Melky could probably nearly match that (about a 2-2.5 WAR) even with his substandard hitting. Crawford will not likley hit free agency.

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ignore the comments above about Crawford...

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 19, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey look, a NY newspaper says Holliday prefers to play in NY!

Wake me when Boras makes Matt put out a statement saying he prefers to go where the money is, because we all know that’s where he REALLY prefers to play. There’s no way Boras would allow something like this cutting off potential other big market teams.

If it’s Boston, he’ll come out and say he always wanted to be a Red Sox. That’s just how it is

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 19, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Offseason Moves

I’d like to see Orlando Cabrera return to play SS. I think we keep him and Nick Green (to play SS and 2B), and Jed Lowrie to play apprentice to Mike Lowell at third. I like the San Diego 1st Baseman but I believe their asking price will be too high and not worth it. I hope we bring back Bay, he was a good fit. Dye might not be a bad option but I’m not sure how much he has left. I’d like to see the Red Sox go younger and more atheletic.

by HoopsHead on Oct 19, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you feel that way

why would you want OCab wo is a below average SS and over the hill?

by Buzzy on Oct 19, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This

Orlando Cabrera isn’t young or athletic anymore.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 19, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+2

The Sox will pass on OC. He’ll be 35 next year, and was awful defensively this year. The Sox will give the SS job to Lowrie or look for a long-term solution. I also think the Sox will pass on the fossilized remains of Jermaine Dye, a truly awful defensive OF. Dye has little value. He posted a -0.7 WAR in 2007, a 1.7 WAR 2008, and a -0.1 WAR this year.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Oct 19, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs