He certainly SEEMED to be, but then it turned out his wife was lobbying for NY all along. It wasn’t money that kept him from Boston.

Second, Holliday. The problem with Bay is that he’s a shit defender and can’t hit breaking balls, which is a very exploitable weakness for good pitchers.

(1) Contractual obligations. The Sox simply aren’t going to eat the $24-$25 million owed to Papi and Lowell just to make some fans happy. If they are paying those two players, they aren’t going to get another high-priced player to platoon at 3B or DH. Tek is a different story. He is only due $3 million next year. I can see the Sox eating that and signing another catcher.
(2) There really isn’t anything good out there via free agency. The top FA out there are Lackey, Abreu, Figgins, Holliday, and Bay. I expect the Sox to re-sign Bay. Figgins will be 32 next year, and he really doesn’t hit like a corner IF. I think the Sox won’t be interested. Abreu will be 36 and is poor defensively. I’d expect the Sox to pass. Lackey will want $13-$15 million. I can’t see Theo going after Lackey, unless his proce comes down. Bay is the most likely FA because he would just cost money. The others would cost money and picks.
(3) Forget about Mauer. He is going to stay in Minnesota. Mauer is a local boy, and the Twins will give him what he wants. They already paid Nathan and Morneau big money. By the time Mauer is a FA, the Twins will have shed enough payroll to sign Mauer. I can’t see Minnesota opening a new stadium and letting the face of their franchise walk.
(4) The Sox aren’t going to re-sign Wagner. He wants to be a closer because he wants to reach 400 saves. The Sox brought him here as a rental. They’ll pocket the draft picks and let him walk. The only way Wagner stays in Boston is if no other team wants him to close, and his price comes down.

The Sox’ biggest decisions will be whether or not to re-sign Bay, what to do about SS, and what to do about Tek.

I think they’ll sign Bay. He is simply the best fit for the team. He is likely to be cheaper than Holliday, who has Scott Boras as his agent. Also, Bay won’t cost the Sox draft picks.

I hope they let Gonzo walk. It would be foolish to pick up his $6 million option. He simply isn’t worth that kind of money. If Gonzo will accept a $1 million plus incentives contract, the Sox should think about bringing him back. I think the medical reports on Lowrie will dictate what they’ll do. If the Sox doubt Jed’s health going forward, expect them to make a trade for someone like JJ Hardy, who is younger and better than Gonzo.

Catcher will be the toughest decision. I don’t think the Sox want VMart to catch more than 80 games. He tends to wear out at catcher, and his defense isn’t great. In my opinion, if the Sox are going to have VMart catch, they should get rid of Tek and find a catcher who can throw runners out. None of the available catchers figures to be a great hitter. But Tek sucks. There are two interesting names out there, who may be Type B FA: Rod Barajas and Brian Schneider. Barajas isn’t a great hitter, but he has some power (19 HR this year). More importantly, he can throw. Barajas threw out 34% of potential base-stealers. That’s not a fluke, as he has averaged 34% over his career. Schneider is a much worse hitter, but he also can throw. Schneider had a 34% CS. Over his career, he has thrown out base-stealers at a 38% rate. For reasons I don’t understand, the Sox have always valued Tek. However, Tek has little value. He can’t hit and his defense isn’t good. Barajas and Schneider aren’t great, but they’re a huge improvement over Tek—andf they won’t cost much in picks.

I’m not sure the Sox will make a big splash this off-season. There simply aren’t any great players out there. I think it’s foolish to expect other teams to just hand their best players over to the Sox. And, while this season’s end was disappointing, let’s not forget that the Sox had the third-best record in baseball. Lowell and Papi will be playing for contracts next year. The off-season will allow Mikey to heal. Maybe his mobility will improve enough to allow his defense to be, at least, average. I’m less worried about Ortiz. Papi started slowly, but over the final four months of the season he hit very well. Since June 1st (363 AB), Ortiz hit .264 AVG/.356 OBP/.548 SLG (.904 OPS). In that period, he played 104 games (98 starts) and hit 27 HR and had 81 RBI. That’s a pace for 41 HR 123 RBI over 155 games. Ortiz got off to a slow start because of a wrist injury. He figures to be better next year. Having VMart for the whole year means that the Sox have options next year at 1B/3B/DH that they didn’t have early this year.

Also, let’s not forget that other teams have issues too. The Angels may lose one or more players: Lackey, Figgins, or Abreu (I think they let Vladdy walk). The MFY have age issues and they want to cut payroll. This year everything went right for them. Four 35+ year old players over-performed. Swisher, who wasn’t even supposed to start (remember Nady?) had a career year. The MFY could field the same team next year with very different results.

Don’t expect Theo to gut the team just because they lost in the ALDS. His philosophy is to build teams that are capable of winning 95+ games and getting into the playoffs. Once there, anything can happen. This is the correct approach. Unlike past Sox oprganizations, this one is in it for the long haul. They have a great FO and great coaching staff. They know what they’re doing.

Well this is the key question is it not?

 I think the Sox brought Gonzo back because few play that position better, and management knew they needed at least a great fielder if they could not have both a great fielder and a great hitter at SS. From what I saw of Gonzo’s defensive play, there are few better!

The Sox are in the equivalent of “the Group of Death” of World Cup Soccer groupings, just they have to do it every year, instead for a couple of weeks every four years. If they make the playoffs, then the year’s planning is a success. The 2009 season had pretty much four AL East team in contention before Toronto dropped off before all star break, and Tampa Bay falter.

Second, teams have to react differently in the playoffs than in the regular season. The Sox starting pitching just didn’t live up to sort of dominance that is needed for stave off any big leads.

  I think there has to be changes for the Sox in the off season, because no team can rest on their laurels from the previous season, and they need to constantly twitch and be ahead of the curve with players that looked are on the decline.