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What to do this Offseason


 For me, something just never felt right this season. The Sox are out early, so it's time to talk about offseason moves.

Outfield: Bay had a great year, putting up 36HR and a .397 wOBA. Although, this will hurt the Sox pocketbooks if they want to resign him this winter. Another option for LF would be Matt Holliday. He too, will come with a high price tag. Holliday's defense has been on the decline, but is still an upgrade over Bay. The only problem I have with Holliday is that he would be new to Fenway and that his SLG and HR numbers were lower than Bay's. So If I had to pick one, I would choose Bay for his power, but the Sox might not have to choose either. This would be very unlikely, but the Sox could sign a great defender like Coco Crisp to play CF and move Ells to LF, while trading for a power hitting 1B. To make this work, Lowell would be gone and Youk would move to 3B. The result of this would be a greatly improved defense without the loss of any power.

Ellsbury finished the season with 70 SB, an OBP of .355, and a UZR of -16.5. The defense and OBP leave a lot to be desired, but Ells is still a young player that is developing. This is why I would hold off on trading him. He has shown improvement in the OBP department: .336 to .355 from 08-09. If he can improve his OBP and defense, he will surely be a monster at the top of the lineup for years to come.

JD Drew, who is one of the most underrated players, finished the year with 24 HR, a wOBA of .389, and a UZR of 9.7. I want him to stay where he is and keep putting up those numbers.

Infield: Lowell has been injury prone and struggled defensively, so this might be the time to find a replacement or move Youk to 3B. I have two possible replacements which are: Figgins and Beltre. Figgins will more than likely come with a hefty price tag because he is one of  baseball's premier leadoff men. Beltre has an interesting story; he played only 111 games because of injury. During these games he posted a UZR of  13.7, a wOBA of .305, and only 8 HR. However, Beltre put up 25 HR in 08 and 26 HR in 07. If he can regain what he had in 07 and 08, his solid defense and good power could make him an adequate replacement for Lowell. I'm a little confused about what to do here, so what do you people think? 

Lowrie has struggled with injuries all year; because of this, I have some doubts about him next year. However, I am a fan of his and want to see him win the job and play well next year. Gonzo was a short term fix this year, and that's all I want him to be is a short term fix. Since the SS market isn't that deep, Tejada or Scutaro could provide an upgrade over Gonzo at the plate.

Not much needs to be said about Pedroia. He put up 15 HR, a wOBA of .360, and a UZR of 10.2. He should not be going anywhere.

Youk had a fine year with 27 HR, a tremendous wOBA of .413, and a 1B UZR of 4.3. He's the heart and soul of this team. Plus, he's also plays a decent 3B.

Catcher: I sure hope Varitek retires. Besides that, Victor Martinez should have his option picked up.He's an awsome hitter wih a .375 wOBA and 23 HR on both the Indians and Red Sox. His UZR, -0.6, isn't bad, but he can't throw out a runner to save his life. Maybe V-mart could move to 1B if the sox could find a decent hitting catcher that plays solid defense to play 90% of the time. I'm not really in favor of this, but it's possibe. My candidates for this job are Benji Molina, Pudge Rodriguez, and possibly Jose Molina.

Starting Pitching: The rotation should have a solid 1-2-3 of Lester, Beckett, and Buchholz. If Dice-k can reagain his form, this is a very scary 1 through 4 for opposing teams. The 5th starter could be Wake if he decides to come back. Now it's time to talk about the free agents. The biggest name that will demand the most money is John Lackey. Right away, my heart says, "Sign him!", but my head says that the money is probably better off being used elsewhere. Would it be worth it just to keep him away from the Yankees? Pitchers like Pineiro and Bedard would not be bad options, but Harden is too much of an injury risk for me. Although a pitcher that I think is worth the risk is Brandon Webb, who has a club option next year.

Bullpen: Finally, we have the bullpen. I was pretty happy with the bullpen for most of the year. Bard is developing into a young star and will most likely be the future closer. With that said, should the Sox trade Paps and sign a temporary closer? I'm not sold on that option. Bard definitely has the stuff but is maybe a year or two away.

Let's hope that Theo can put together a championship team for 2010.

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments

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Re-sign Bay over Holliday, defense isn’t there but we know he can play in Boston at a high level (see shortstops 2004-2009).

Pick up VMart’s option and hire Tek as a coach when he gracefully retires after a month of thinking about it.

Try picking up Nick Johnson or Bengie Molina, if we pick up Nick then VMart WILL be a full time catcher, pick up Bengie and VMart can play first and we can try and move Lowell and wait patiently for Lars Anderson to become what we hope he can be. Or alternatively, put together a trade for another AGonz and get Adrian Gonzalez

Pick up A(lex)Gonz’s option, Jed could be good but we really don’t know. Don’t ever expect Alex to repeat what he did these last couple of months but he would be a solid stop gap to figure out what to do at SS.

I don’t really think getting Figgins is too great of an idea. He’s an older Ellsbury who gets on base just a little more often but their numbers match up pretty well, do we really need two leadoff men who only offer speed?

Sign John Lackey. Let’s be honest, the Yankees signed the two best pitchers last year and look where they are now? I hate using them as a model as much as the next guy but pitching wins games. Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz, Dice-K would be the most fearsome 1-5 in baseball. I love Wake but I think the front office really needs to think about picking up his option this year. Also, take a look at Webb, if the FO really thinks he can return to form he would have a huge impact.

Bullpen, a little out of the box but sign Brett Myers, he doesn’t have starter health or stuff but could be great in the bullpen. Pick up Saito’s option as well and stick with Paps as our closer but groom Bard as well.

Just some ideas, probably there isn’t going to be much roster turnover here or any block buster trades but there are plenty of players available for Theo to get creative, just no more washed up SPs getting second chances!

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 12, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Holliday needs to be the top priority.

Defense IS important, even in left, and I think he’s the overall better player. Bay’s weaknesses are easily exploited by good pitching.

Agreed on V-Mart/Tek

Bengie Molina was awful last year and should not be considered. Nick Johnson would be a nice addition, but isn’t really what the Sox need if they want to be noticeably improved next year, especially given his declining fielding. If the Sox are going to make a change at corner infield/DH, it’s going to need to be a VERY significant bat to be worth the effort. Adrian Gonzalez would be that type of bat. Move him from Petco to Fenway and give him protection…Good God the things he’ll do.

I don’t have faith that Martinez can catch 4-out-of-5 games and remain consistent at the plate. This was also the conclusion the Sox came to when looking at Martinez before they made the deal.

Alex’ option costs too much in my opinion. I say we part ways with him and get JJ Hardy on the cheap (Brewers are desperate to get something for him). A platoon of Jed and Hardy should produce great defensive numbers and hopefully one of them will perform offensively as they were expected to.

Chone will probably be this season’s most overpaid free agent. I’ll pass on paying right after a career year on a guy in his early 30’s.

The Sox definitely need a FA starter. Between Wake, Buck, and Dice-K I don’t trust we’ll be getting a whole season of production out of all of them, and I don’t think either Tazawa or Bowden are insurance enough in AAA. I’m just not sure Lackey is the right way to go. We’ll end up in a bidding war on a guy who’s been declining for a few years. I’d much rather gauge Wakefield’s willingness to act as a reserve kind of guy and try out Ben Sheets. While he’s been injured, he’s never been BAD. He’s had a long time to recover, so we wouldn’t be rushing him back. He’d come with no draft pick loss, and he’d be our #5 guy anyways. I know I sound like I’m just begging to have another Penny/Smoltz situation, but I really think Sheets is a great deal waiting to be had.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Figgins' OBP is .395 compared to Ells' .355. I'm not sure, but I think that is a big difference.

Also, his UZR is 14.5, which is great. Amen on the last thing about SPs.

"It would have been a nice idea if you could run through the postseason without losing. I don't think it's realistic."
--Terry Francona

by BoldandBrash on Oct 12, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool

But can he play CF?

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 12, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This year

It was .395, his career average is .363, Ells is .350, like I said better but not a whole lot different. Just like that in a lot of categories, except slugging, over the career Ells holds a slight edge over him, not a lot but a little better.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 12, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

I think he will resign with LAA, but would you rather have him over Lowell? Maybe, but it’s not worth the money. I’m not in favor of him because Ells is showing improvement.

"It would have been a nice idea if you could run through the postseason without losing. I don't think it's realistic."
--Terry Francona

by BoldandBrash on Oct 12, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are a lot

Of players I’d rather have playing 3B over Lowell, off the top of my head? Figgins, the Slash animation from Guitar Hero:Legends of Rock, or the Geico Gecko.

I just think he is too similar to Ells who is still young and finding his ideal game, somewhere out there is a player who could produce in a different way that we need, the OBP machines we like to see on this team.

I think our problems can be fixed by finding a full time catcher somewhere with a decent bat. VMart isn’t that guy but could play 1B very well for us and move Youk over to 3B. I know most people don’t like moving him to 3B but his UZR/150 there is 7.9 for his career (a little below average this year admittedly but not by much). Any situation that ends with 2010 dawning with Vmart as our full time catcher just isn’t a very good one.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 12, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That sounds great.

"It would have been a nice idea if you could run through the postseason without losing. I don't think it's realistic."
--Terry Francona

by BoldandBrash on Oct 12, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I skipped over his name when I went down through the FA catchers, would be a good addition as a back up, I don’t know about his D or game calling ability but the offense isn’t so bad. We may be able to pry Snyder off of Arizona, he isn’t the best and is hurt sometimes but is serviceable.

Any chance Wager or Exposito will be ready half way through next season?

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Oct 13, 2009 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What do people think it would take to get Adrian Gonzalez?

I think a package built around Lars and Kelly would make sense. Toss in one of Reddick/Kalish, some young fringe talent, and Kotchman to play 1st for them next year.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 12, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe a pitcher like Bowden or Tazawa plus what you said.

I heard that Theo lets the other team pick a player(s) from a category A, B, or C.

"It would have been a nice idea if you could run through the postseason without losing. I don't think it's realistic."
--Terry Francona

by BoldandBrash on Oct 12, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SD will be looking for a lot if they decide to move A-Gon

I think at the deadline this year, they were asking for something along the lines of Buchholz, Hagadone, Reddick, Masterson, and others. Gonzalez will make $4.75 MM in 2010, and has a $5.5 MM option for 2011. So he’s pretty cheap for the next two years, and he is a great power first baseman (36 HR this year playing half his games in PETCO). I’d love to have this guy, but it’s gonna cost us.

by Schulz on Oct 13, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No doubt

I’d say we’d have to stipulate it on signing an extension with Gonzalez. Maybe 60/5 or so.

Kelly
Lars/Rizzo (Becoming a surprisingly close competition the more I think about it)
Kalish/Reddick
Doubront
Fife/Weiland
Kotchman

Or something like that.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 14, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i like Gonzalez ALOT

but isn’t his contract relatively cheap for the next couple of years? San Diego may not want to move him… what about Prince Fielder?

by lb33 on Oct 12, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Fielder is a Boras client

They usually don’t sign extensions. Some do, but most don’t. I’d be curious to see the type of deal he’d be looking for not to go to free agency in two years. With his body type I’d be wary of that kind of extension for him.

Fielder, Gonzalez, and Hernandez will ALL cost a ton to get. I don’t think Theo is comfortable with completely giving away our farm for both. Maybe one, maybe.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Oct 12, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Felix is his favorite pitcher, so I'd expect at least an offer this winter.

"It would have been a nice idea if you could run through the postseason without losing. I don't think it's realistic."
--Terry Francona

by BoldandBrash on Oct 12, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gonzalez was cheap, but they were shopping him.

They’re not gonna be very good for the next 2 years IMO.

by Ben Buchanan on Oct 14, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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