2009 Projected Red Sox WAR Results

I'd be shocked if we won 106 games

I’d say that’s the upper limit if and only if none of our key players suffer any injuries.

Assuming an average year for injuries, I’d guess 95 wins is more realistic.

by RSNexile on Jan 9, 2009 4:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I can't access the spreadsheet.

But 106 seems awfully high.

When I did the same thing two weeks ago (so pre-Penny/Bard, ect.) I got around 93 wins for Boston.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 9, 2009 10:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's not hard to see how we could get to 100-101 from there, though.

Rocco + Kotsay = 1 win
Penny + Smoltz = 3-4 wins
Bard + Varitek (in a equal platoon) = 3 wins

I’m assuming most people accept that we’re going to get Tek because no one else is interested.

I can hear the clock ticking and my heart beating. I can see individual pixels of the TV picture. I can hear the caution in the opponent's voice. I can smell the fear in the sweat of the opponent's fans. I can taste... THE CHAMPIONSHIP. I AM IN CHAMPIONSHIP MODE.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 9, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

106 is way too high.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Jan 9, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What would be the run differential required to win that many?

According the Pythagorean record formula?

I can hear the clock ticking and my heart beating. I can see individual pixels of the TV picture. I can hear the caution in the opponent's voice. I can smell the fear in the sweat of the opponent's fans. I can taste... THE CHAMPIONSHIP. I AM IN CHAMPIONSHIP MODE.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 9, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

It does seem too high. I actually cut it down from 110 with the ERA’s of pitchers.

Can anyone else access the spreadsheet?

by drabidea on Jan 10, 2009 2:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can access it

by BTLove on Jan 10, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hm.

You have Lowrie for two WINS defensively, which is Carl Crawford in left field territory. He’s probably closer to 0.6 wins. Lowell’s defense also seems a bit high, I would put it closer to 0.8 than 1.1 based on the last three years. That knocks ~3 wins off. So 103.

Otherwise, perhaps go back through and use the average wOBA of Marcels and CHONE. Marcels regresses toward average, so with young players (like Kottaras, Carter, Lowrie, ect.) you’re going to see some funky numbers.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 12:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here's my rather rough Rays WAR SS:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pAPYgBwn4o__4aHzBa42feA

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SS WAR

Fangraphs Win Values, had the best shortstop in the league last year, OCab, at +1.4 wins defensively. So 2.2 for Lowrie seems really high.

by BTLove on Jan 10, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rocco is a touch too high as well.

I would go the safe route and assume average (or 0) in his case. Otherwise you’re working off optimism and small sample size, and it’s better to be conservative on these things.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the high wins in part might come from...

You have 1009 innings projected for our starters which would mean an average of 6.2 innings per start. Those 1009 starts only include 7 starters, whereas last year we used 11 different starters, so really you are projecting even more than 6.2 innings per start. That seems pretty high.

by BTLove on Jan 10, 2009 5:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I didn't even catch that.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, just to clarify,

you say, “The idea behind the project is we know that a completely average team made up of completely average players will win 55 games.” You should replace “average” with “replacement level.” A replacement level player is one who can be had for league minimum and attained quite cheaply. Basically a AAAA player, like Van Every or Carter or someone. An average MLBer is significantly better than that and is quite valuable.

by BTLove on Jan 10, 2009 5:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Shouldn't average = 81 wins?

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 10, 2009 8:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A team of average players wins 81.

A team of replacement players wins ~50.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 8:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I thought.

Is there a calculation for a team of average joes?

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 10, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I redid the Sox and got 100, go figure.

I’m finishing the Yankees and then I’ll post the entire AL East set. It goes without saying the Red Sox are in the proverbial lead.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 8:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

So Penny and Smoltz should contribute 3 wins over Buch or another prospect.

If what I said above if right.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 10, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you're assuming one pitching slot, that's pretty darn high.

Buch’s maybe 1 WAR and Penny/Smoltz combined over 180-200 IP would be, say 2.5 WAR. Maybe 3 WAR.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 11, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Including relief role that either would fill after Smoltz gets in.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 11, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WAR - What is it good for?

Absolutely nothing. YEAH!

"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.

by 0157H7 on Jan 10, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Please don't get that song in my head...

DAMMIT!!!! [slams head back in recliner, flips entire chair over]

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 10, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rec’d this just because I wish I had thought of it first … :(

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Jan 10, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edwin motherfucking Starr

Goddamn legend.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 10, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, these are obviously pretty raw.

And are assuming a lot about playing time and health, but otherwise should be decent.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pAPYgBwn4o__4aHzBa42feA

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 9:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm... just wondering:

Is it impossible for a team to have a 100% chance of making a plateau? Cause the Sox page has us as 99.999….% to win 55 games. Kinda seems like it accounts for a mass shooting or some epidemic in the club house.
It’s be awesome to see the Rays and Sox tie at around 100 wins, and the Yankees to come up 1 win short. As much as I hate Rays’ fans (and Staats), I don’t mind the team (minus Gomes, Shields, and MAYBE VJ if he becomes too good). And a 1 game playoff would be a great step towards an EPIC rivalry.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 10, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think everyone is overestimating.

100 wins would be awesome, but teams don’t win that many too often. I think we have to shoot for 95 and hope thats enough.

by BTLove on Jan 10, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well I used CHONE.

But again, we can’t predict for slumps, streaks, or injuries. Plus, any team in the ALE is going to play nearly 40 games against really good teams, meaning the wins totals will almost definitely depress just from that.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now that I look at the chart....

it makes sense. 41% shot at 100 games, but the most likley outcome is 95 games.

by BTLove on Jan 10, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I can agree with that.

Also: if anyone sees any playing time issues (aka: “Hey Argenis Reyes is probably our back-up second baseman.”)let me know. Obviously it’s guess work at this point, but you guys know the RS better than I do.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 11, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who is VJ?

Do you mean BJ the Boss?

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 10, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Velociraptor Jesus?

Unless he’s shed that nickname. I don’t check DRB that often anymore, cause I get frustrated when I want to comment on the funny stuff. But, that’s when I go to FailBlog or something similar. Problem solved.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 10, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BJ the Boss would be

Blowie Upton?

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 10, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahhh so pretty

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

by SRQman on Jan 11, 2009 2:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're underestimating how much of a sure thing 99.999% is

That’s 1 out of 100,000 hypothetical seasons of failing to win 55 games. Let’s estimate that there have been 100 years of 30 teams playing full seasons (there are more years, but fewer teams per year). That’s only 3000 team-seasons. So we’d expect .03 flukey seasons in the history of baseball on par with the 2009 Red Sox not winning 55 games. A 3% chance that it’s every happened in the history of baseball seems fine to me.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 11, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just asking if the formulas include disasters.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 11, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

106 wins?

There is no way that will happen, not in the AL east with the yankees and rays there. If we played in the west then that could happen.

by coachluc on Jan 13, 2009 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If we played in the West, we'd break the 120 wins mark.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 13, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

west

if we played in the AL West, I’d be very comfortable with 120 wins. If we played in the NL West, I’d be very confident with 163 wins (we’d find the extra win in the pillows).

by rmarx01 on Jan 16, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'd beat up the M's for a win.

Or get in a fight. But we’d still have to play everyone else, so we’d lose a few. And maybe a few to the Rangers…

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 16, 2009 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my WAR spreadsheet

my spreadsheet shows the Red Sox winning 100 games next year. My sources:
—CHONE for wOBA and FIP projections
—BP’s eqBRR for baserunning
—CHONE’s fielding projections (from baseballprojection.com)
—OF arms from Hardball Times
I used FIP to project next year’s ERA, except for Wakefield, because knuckleball pitchers have unusually low BABIPs. For Wake I used his projected ERA.
I also added 5 points of wOBA to Baldelli and Drew in RF to account for their platoon. This is just an educated guess, I don’t know if its the best way to do a platoon adjustment.
To find IP for starters, I came up with a reasonable number of GS and then multiplied by the CHONE projection for GS/IP.

by redsox9322 on Jan 18, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my WAR spreadsheet

forgot the URL:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p0COxVMw1PUwrIFT6BU7DTQ&hl=en

by redsox9322 on Jan 18, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Updating Spreadsheet

Thank you all for the input. I am in the process of updating the spreadsheet and will post a new one this evening. Expected changes are I lowered Lowrie, Lowell, and Rocco’s defense. I also changed the innings around for the starters and relievers so that it matches better. Did I miss anything?

I haven’t heard any input on PA for each player do they seem reasonable?

by drabidea on Jan 19, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

updating spreadsheet

drabidea—I noticed a large discrepancy between your projection for Kottaras (.330) and mine (.314)—this is because you are averaging CHONE, Marcel, and Bill James, while I am just using CHONE. Normally averaging the three projection methods is fine. However, Bill James’ projections have an average wOBA higher than those of CHONE and Marcel. This is especially noticeable for young players like Kottaras. Basically, I wouldn’t trust Bill James projection for Kottaras. I also wouldn’t use Marcels, since they don’t work well with minor leaguers. I think you should change Kottaras projection to his CHONE projection of .314.

with PA for players—they look reasonable. I think you should break up players into each of their positions the way I did, making sure that each position gets ~700 PA. This is so that the defensive projections are more accurate. For instance, you have 1000 PA in CF between Ellsbury and Baldelli, but Baldelli will likely play mostly in RF (as platoon partner for Drew). Putting Baldelli in CF will overrate the Sox’s defense because it overweights CF’s position adjustment at the expense of RF and LF’s position adjustments. But the overall effect shouldn’t be that large.

sorry for the long post.

by redsox9322 on Jan 21, 2009 12:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs