Could Julio Lugo overtake Jed Lowrie for the shortstop job in '09?

Lowrie

Outside of who's behind the plate for the Red Sox on Opening Day, the biggest question mark is up the middle, to the left of the second base bag, deep in the hole. Who's playing there and how well will they perform?

There are only two candidates. The man with the big money, looking to prove he's still got some gas left in the tank and the youngster, who has proved he can play but he isn't in the Hall of Fame just yet.

The descriptions above fit Julio Lugo and Jed Lowrie, respectively. We'll see one of them deep in the hole come April 6 in Fenway Park ... but which one is the real question at hand.

First, let's look at their stats from 2008:

	AB	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS+
Lowrie	260	2	46	.258/.339/.400	90
Lugo	261	1	22	.268/.355/.330	78

The nice thing about comparing their stats is they played an almost identical amount of time, Lowrie's 260 at-bats to Lugo's 261. With a quick look over their numbers, they don't look to be too much different. Lowrie had a little more power and knocked in a few more runners, while Lugo had a better batting average and got on base at a better clip.

Looking at the future for both hitters, Lowrie can only go up while it's hard to tell what Lugo is capable of. Lugo is a very good hitter at Fenway Park (.301 career at Fenway, .305 last season), but away he struggles. In '07 he hit .190 on the road and .233 last year. Lowrie has potential to be a .300 hitter.

Defensively, it's not even close. Last year Lugo notched 16 errors in 81 games at shortstop. Lowrie committed 0 in 49 games at short and just two in 45 games at third base in Mike Lowell's absence. If I remember correctly, a majority of Lugo's errors came on throws to first base, not necessarily fielding ground balls.

Let's look at at the pros of each being the starter:

FOR LOWRIE:

• Higher ceiling
• Better offensive potential
• Above-average defensive shortstop
• Proved his worth late in '08/playoffs
• Allows Lugo to be super utility backup (SS, 2B, 3B, OF)

FOR LUGO:

• Great hitter at Fenway
• $$$ (not a big deal to fans, but a big deal to the front office who paid that $$$)
• Speed: likely the second fastest player on the Red Sox
• The "revenge" factor: Lugo has a lot to prove

If the Sox had to choose today, the answer would be Lowrie. No doubt about it. But what if the Sox declared the position open to the best player come Spring Training?

I think it would be great for the Sox, Lowrie and Lugo if Terry Francona says in February: "Both of these guys have a lot to offer, so we're going to let Spring Training decide the winner." Lowrie might feel a little slighted if this were to happen, but he's still just a rookie working for a spot against a big money veteran.

Is there a downside to this? If Lugo is under the idea he can win the job back, he's going to go full tilt in Spring Training and no one is going to complain about that. If his numbers are great, Lowrie's are great then the Sox have a hard decision to make but a good decision to make. They could start Lugo and have Lowrie be the backup infielder. Or if Lowrie wins the job, Lugo could be the super utility player or possibly traded because he proved he's still got some skills if Spring Training goes well.

The best part is that the Sox are in a win-win situation. Unless both get hurt, the Red Sox should be all set heading into 2009 at the shortstop position.