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Outfield 2009 Projection

The third part of our projection series is our outfield. The criteria to be projected for each player is .wOBA, PA, Fielding, and Baserunning.

wOBA, created by Tom Tango, is a version of linear weights that has been weighted to fit an OBP scale. The weights have been properly adjusted by season and for the minor leagues by season and by league. For the 2009 projection I used the linear average of Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel.

For fielding I used Ultimate Zone Rating from fangraphs. UZR is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined. For the projection I took each player's last 3 full years at the postion and took the linear average of all 3. If a player does not have 3 full years.I took what data was available at the postion. I then normalized the data for 182 games.

For baserunning, which includes both SB/CS info and non-SB/CS info. I used Baseballprospectus stats from last year. I am assuming they will run the same next year.

Name POS PA wOBA BR FLD
Jason Bay LF 625 0.370 0.06 -0.71
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 600 0.348 0.80 0.97
JD Drew RF 475 0.372 0.21 0.75
Rocco Balldelli RF 250 0.345 -0.10 0.25
Mark Kotsay RF 100 0.312 -0.01 1.03

Please note that I put Balldelli and Kotsay in RF because it is in the middle of difficulty. Not as hard as CF but harder to play then LF.

Please respond with feedback. Thank You

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