Keith Law: Lars Anderson #7 Prospect in MLB
by SoxAcumen on Jan 21, 2009 3:30 PM EST
42 comments
Red Sox farm system #7.
Top Prospects 1-10:
1) Matt Weiters - C - Baltimore
2) David Price - LHP - Tampa Bay
3) Jason Heyward - RF - Atlanta
4) Neftali Feliz - RHP - Texas
5) Travis Snider - OF - Toronto
6) Madison Bumgarner - LHP - San Fran
7) Lars Anderson - 1B - Boston
8) Buster Posey - C - San Fran
9) Tommy Hanson - RHP - Atlanta
10) Rich Porcello - RHP - Detroit
Top 10 farm systems:
1) Texas
2) Tampa Bay
3) Oakland
4) Atlanta
5) Cleveland
6) St. Louis
7) Boston
8) Florida
9) San Fran
10) Baltimore
Links - Top 100 Prospects Top Farm Systems
If these are reasonable, future looks very bright for the Sox.
I might have to eat some crow on Lars....
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Interesting
how in a few years the Angels might really struggle in the West. Both the As and the Rangers are really stocked, and in fact the As may already be better than LAA. Also interesting how many good talents San Fran has (I think Law might be underestimating-they have a crapload of pitching talent, but I guess some of those guys are not “in the system” anymore). Bumgarner will be a beast, and Sanchez, even though his numbers look bad, will be a good pitcher. Put that with Cain and Lincecum, and actually even the Giants are no joke anymore. Funny how things change.
by Buzzy on Jan 21, 2009 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oakland + Texas
both have a stock pile of young arms, which I do not think the Angels are that loaded outside of maybe Adenhart.
by SoxAcumen on Jan 21, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball America's Jim Callis ranks the Sox' system lower
This is from today’s ESPN chat:
Bob (Baltimore, MD): Rank the farm systems of the AL East.
Jim Callis: If someone wants to email me at askba@baseballamerica.com, rank the divisions by quality of farm system. I suspect the AL East has to have the best. I rated them: Rays No. 4, Orioles No. 10, Red Sox No. 13, Yankees No. 16, Blue Jays No. 18.
Here are some other Sox-related tidbits from Callis:
Lou (Boulder, CO): Jim, any updates on Hagadone’s rehab? Is Nick still the #3 prospect in the system if you re-ranked the Sox top 10 today? Lastly, do you see him remaining as a starter?
Jim Callis: The last I heard they expect him to be able to start the season or very close to it. I’d still rank him No. 3 because I’m not worried about him coming back from TJ surgery (the rehab is going very well) and there are few lefties with that kind of stuff. The Red Sox system is deep but isn’t teeming with upper-level prospects like it was a year ago. I don’t doubt that Hagadone could be a starter, but given Boston’s depth in starters, I could see him moving quickly to the majors as a lefty reliever.
Chris (NYC): What kind of upside do Lars Anderson and Brett Wallace have and when do you expect them to reach the majors?
Jim Callis: All-star upside, 2010 on both of them.
Rob (Brighton, MA): Higher upside centerfielder: Josh Reddick or Che-suan Lin?
Jim Callis: Reddick.
Steve (Concord, NH): Jim Rice = Hall of Famer?
Jim Callis: He’s in, isn’t he? Did he deserve it? He’d be on the bubble for me, don’t think it’s a travesty either way and not something I can get worked up about.
John (La): Better carrer: bucholz or bowden?
Jim Callis: Buchholz.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 21, 2009 4:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
David Price
Still considered a prospect. Wow. I would think that making a handful of dominant postseason appearances, and being projected as a member of the starting rotation would delete him from the list.
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
by mlbnotebook on Jan 21, 2009 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Still ROY eliible, I think.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jan 21, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 21, 2009 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm in the minority
but I think Price will not be dominate..yet. I think we discussed this a while back about “can’t miss” prospects. Price has 2 pitches only. His change was poor in his brief stay in AA (gave up a bunch of HR and was tipping his change). Still I am sure this will develop, but few pitchers can get by as starters with 2 pitches. Randy Johnson had a better fastball and a better slider than Price does now so he could easily more than get away with it, but Price has good control (Johnson did not at the start) and Price will develop the change. I just think he will be good but not fantastic next year. Then-watch out.
by Buzzy on Jan 21, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just scared of his pitching motion...
It’s probably scarier than Randy’s. I’d hate to hit against him.
The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble
by DirtySouthSox on Jan 21, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Randy was a actually a pretty late bloomer.
Didn’t reach the majors til 24, didn’t have an above average season until 26, and didn’t really become dominant until 30-31. Price is much more advanced for his age. Of course the odds of him reaching a Johnson-esque performance level are pretty slim.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jan 21, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
100%. He was a late bloomer largely because he was so wild. Price has much better command/control at this stage. But I seriously doubt Price will have the Johnson FB or slider. So, the question is, how far can he go with 2 pitches? In the end he will be a great pitcher, but I think it will be with more than just 2 pitches.
by Buzzy on Jan 21, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is it weird that I scrolled down to far, and thought this was about our Randy?
I had forgot we were talking about Johnson.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 21, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised Lars is so high.
But I will take it.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jan 21, 2009 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not.
Alot of scouts on baseballamerica project him to be better than Justin Morneau. Of course, that means squat till it comes true.
The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble
by DirtySouthSox on Jan 21, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lars
I think what gets him the high rating is a combination of the plate discipline, power upside and his very fluid and compact swing (I think you can see some video on Youtube, where someone calls him “white Papi.”). His performance at this age is very rare (compare Morneau, Manny and Pujols). But…he is still very young. An interesting cautionary comparison is Adam Dunn, who looked similar (young, patient, power and high average) in the minors at this stage but has been a rather poor contact hitter in the majors. Thus, Lars could end up as a Dunn, which would not be so bad, but I am hopeful for more.
by Buzzy on Jan 21, 2009 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My thing with Lars is that he has huge BABIP issues
It is one thing to have a BABIP in the .350 range in the minors but his .367 in A+ and .435 in AA worry me. Add to it that his huge K% (32.3%) in AA is another issue for concern.
I like him as a prospect, but I think people are getting a little over confident with Lar’s abilities.
by laxtonto on Jan 21, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your K% is wrong
Lars Ks 32.3% of the time if you don’t add his BBs and SFs, which don’t count as AB. Anderson struckout 26.2% of his PA in Double-A—as a 20-year old.
As a 20-year old, Manny Ramirez struckout in 21.5% of his PA in high-A.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 21, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Lars strikes out way too much for a guy with his moderate power. His BABIP’s in the minors are too high:
07 A 363
07 A+ 440
08 A+ 367
08 AA 435
Remember Jeremy Reed? He hit .333 in 2003 in A+ and then .409 in AA, although he didn’t have Lars’ power or patience. But Reed couldn’t keep up the high batting average, and today he is a fourth outfielder at best.
The good thing is that the Sox are well prepared in case Lars never pans out. But hopefully I am wrong about Lars. After all, before this year I thought Lester was, best-case scenario, a 4 starter. Happily I was wrong.
by redsox9322 on Jan 23, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reed isn't a good comparison
He was 22 in 2003, 2 years older than Anderson last year. Reed played college ball prior to bring drafted by the White Sox. As a 23-year old in the International League (Triple-A) Reed had a .777 OPS, which is higher but in-line with what he has done in the pros. Also, Reed had low strikeout numbers.
I’m interested to see what Anderson does this year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 23, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
I was using Reed to illustrate the pitfalls of a high BABIP (which I am assuming Reed had, though I couldn’t find the actual numbers). I agree with your comment though that Reed isn’t a very good comp. Also it is critical what Anderson does this year.
by redsox9322 on Jan 23, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am not suprised to see him so high. Keith Law absoutely loves him
and it has been reflected in all of his work. Unfortunately that love is not felt across BA and don’t be surprised to see Lars at 15 or latter in BA’s book.
Several of the other writers were not for sure they would put Lars in their top 20, so I am not super confident that he lands anywhere near that high on the BA list. That is also the reason why the Sox rank 13th in the official BA book but the Sox 7th in Laws ESPN rankings.
Don’t be surprised to see several of Law’s top 10 drop into the late teens or early 20’s in BA’s book.
It is good to see the nice pub, but I have a bad feeling that this might be the outlier in the top 100 lists again this year.
by laxtonto on Jan 21, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
he all but says this about his ranking of the Sox system ("agressive"). It is weird-on two different Sickles rankings I have seen him at 25 and also in the top 10. However a top 10 for a marginal fielding 1b at this level (AA/21) is a bit “agressive,” even given his hitting potential.
by Buzzy on Jan 21, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can anyone tell me how the fuck is St. Louis ranked higher than us?
I would have been fine with both San Francisco or Baltimore over us, but St. Louis? Really?
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 21, 2009 10:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
St Louis has a pretty good system
add to it they have a top 10-15 guy in Rasmus and Wallace who is going to fall in the top 30 or so.
There are several guys that are comparable to the top of the system, and Wallace is easily as good of a prospect as Lars at this point. Brett Wallace went from being drafted from ASU in June to AA while playing serviceable 3B.
I am not really suprised to see St Louis ahead of the Sox. If you think this is bad, wait until BA’s list comes out. They already have the Sox at 13th, but fortunately the NYY at the 15th
by laxtonto on Jan 21, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the Yanks system get ranked higher than the Red Sox at some point, I might take hostages
That would be VERY stupid.
And I don’t know much about the Cards farm system, I was never impressed by their pitchers. Rasmus should be a very good MLB player and Wallace COULD be a beast (I’d wait and see what he does at a full season). I just think our system is more solid pitching-wise.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 22, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You don't have to worry about that for a while.
Outside of austin jackson and mark melancon in AAA our cupboard is pretty bare until you get to high A.There’s one dude at AA who could develop into a good 3rd starter but that’s about it. Like you guys, our A ball teams are absolutely stacked with potential game changers but they’re a ways away from the bigs.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jan 22, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing about our system is:
that we have graduated a bunch of guys into our starting lineup in the last few years. For the Sox to have three position players come up and start in the last two years and a bunch of pitchers to make impacts is pretty damn good. The success of those guys has weakened our system, but in a good way.
by BTLove on Jan 21, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
completely true-we have graduated Masterson, Buccholz, Lowrie, Ellsbury and Pedroia (all graduated in the formal sense even if not full-time players). Thus, you have to slip. To a lesser degree this has happend to the Rays, and will more so now that their draft position has fallen and they have issues with foreign prospect scouting/development (although their system is still better than ours). We also thinned out in the recent past (Hanley, Sanchez, Beltre) by trade. I would have liked to have the Gagne trade back, but i understood the move at the time. BTW-laxtonto-what is your opinion of Engle Beltre? Seems interesting and some love him, but others don’t. And Rasmus was our wasted pick give up for Renteria, I think ;-{.
The Sox will stay competitive with the farm because the have a good approach even when picking low, they have decent central american claws, and ahve a good development system.
by Buzzy on Jan 22, 2009 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can add Lester, MDC, and Paps to the graduate list
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 22, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
That the Sox are always in play for any Japanese player looking to play in the U.S. The FO has done a really good job marketing there, and boston has become a destination for Japanese players. Look for more signings in years to come.
by Schulz on Jan 22, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and
to a lesser degree Moss, Murphy, Hansen…
by Buzzy on Jan 22, 2009 10:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly
According to Klaw’s list, Lars was the only Sox guy in the Top 10 at any position. I honestly don’t know who else would’ve cracked the top ten at any other position, but I still found it surprising.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jan 22, 2009 9:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I did, too.
I kind of felt like Michael Bowden was getting a little jipped.
The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble
by DirtySouthSox on Jan 23, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A lot of scouts aren't excited about Bowden
They feel he’ll top out in the middle or bottom of the rotation. Bowden’s minor league numbers are good, though.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 23, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His stuff is okay
I like his command as well. He’ll be good, me thinks. I don’t think he’s a TOP 10 pitching prospect, but likely in the top 20.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 23, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He reminds me of a harder throwing Foulke
He short-arms the ball.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 23, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He does.
I saw him throw on Prospecttube and was mortified. That motion will take five years away from his career.
The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble
by DirtySouthSox on Jan 23, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His delivery reminds of Foulke as well
Stuff-wise, I think that what sets ’em apart is the curve, Bowden could develop a great curveball. Even so, a harder throwing Foulke is just fine with me if Bowden can reach that.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 24, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reminds "ME" of
I eat words.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 24, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
High fiber content.
Not so much protein though.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 24, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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