2009 Starting Pitching Projection

If Dice-K keeps his ERA under 4, I'd be amazed.

Seems like he’s going to regress this year.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 19, 2009 9:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Have faith in Dice-K

he is far more crafty than people give him credit for.

Personally I am looking for an under 4 era for Lester.

If the Red Sox get 94 innings and an ERA of under 4 from Smoltz, they are playing in the WS.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 19, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

May I ask why 94?

And not like 95 or 93?

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 19, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Average Projection

CHONE projects 93 and Marcel projects 94. The average being 93.5 and I just rounded that to 94. Does 94 seem reasonable? Last year he pitched only 32 innings because of injury but the 3 years before 2008 he pitched over 200 innings.

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I had no idea of his IP projections

Sorry, I just thought 94 was a weird number to be used as average. I should have guessed.

I don’t think he’ll throw 94 innings, I think he’ll be around 70-80 IP tops. Just a guess, based on his age and injury problem.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 20, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No need to be sorry

I can understand the 70-80 innings projection. He is pretty old. I think the Sox signed him mostly as a mentor to the young guys.

Do other people think 70-80 innings range? or 90-100 range?

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with 70-80

by Schulz on Jan 20, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

80-90 IP.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

60-70 IP

Smoltz will pitch, at most, half the year, which means 15 starts and 90 IP. I think he’ll get around 10-12 starts, 60-70 IP. Anything more than 90 IP is too optimistic.

by redsox9322 on Jan 22, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just added

the 64 starting innings + 30 relief from the note below the yellow box. I have no idea what Smoltz will really pitch.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 20, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CHONE and Marcel disagree

If you like this stuff.

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 19, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What do...

The Angels’ third baseman and the monkey from “Friends” have to do with any of this?

Oh. Wait…

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 20, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MARCEL!

Did he ever make into the San Diego Zoo? (My mom was addicted to that show)

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

God, Friends was awful

I have no idea why that shit got so much attention to begin with. World isn’t fair. Friends wins everything and everyone on Earth, while Married with Children never gets any award and Arrested Development gets cancelled after 2 seasons…

Mother---- him and John Wayne!

by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 21, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because America is filled with stupid people?

Hey, FNL doesn’t get the attention it deserves either.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 21, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

3 seasons for Arrested Development. Truly great television.

Though I think Friends was a lot better than most sitcoms on TV.

by BTLove on Jan 21, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dice-K

I think he will regress as well. His ERA of 2.90 will not hold up next year. However he did have a FIP of 4.03 last year. Which was still better then 2007 FIP of 4.23. I think he is still getting used to pitching in America and will continue to get better.

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Dice-K will pitch in the WBC, show his stuff again, bc this time people in Japan have a new favorite Yu Darvish.

He will be ready for opening day and be in top form, then the Sox will give him a couple weeks off when Smoltz is ready to go.

by SoxAcumen on Jan 20, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wakefield??

Wakefield will not finish the season as an active Red Sox starter!

by NG on Jan 20, 2009 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't need another conversation about the bet.

I disagree, for anyone who doesn’t know at this point.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wakefield

has pitched 140 innings once in the past 9 years. His lowest other then that year has been 163. Having him at 150 innings is saying that he will have the 3rd worst year of his long career with the Red Sox.

Unless someone has convincing evidence that his arm is going to fall off, I don’t think we should lower his innings.

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

[Everyone looks to NG]

Well?

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess you may think it a premonition, BUT

I really do feel that Wakefield’s self-destruction in 2 or 3 of his last times out, which were about the biggest embarrassments to major league baseball I have ever seen, do mark his skill demise from age related reasons. Therefore, I seen no reason why his inadequate major league “stuff” will be any more adequate come opening day or soon thereafter. I think he is in for a very tough and embarrassing time, and for everyone’s sake, I wish he had/would just retire!

by NG on Jan 21, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't have "stuff" and never has.

He relies on a trick pitch that has been very effective up until a few months ago. Blame global warming (the same one that made it almost snow in Tampa last night, and it could happen again tonight).

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 21, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I heard it was colder down in FL than up here in Wyoming.

by BTLove on Jan 21, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

Still hasn’t snowed, though. A bit of frozen dew, which made my grass completely brown. :(

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 22, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or there are better options and he's pushed out of the rotation...

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 21, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure how that fits in the bet.

We might have to agree whether or not Wake would’ve continued if that option had not arose.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 21, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good chance he gets puched to the pen.

then you would lose the bet.

by BTLove on Jan 21, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good Point

That is a definite possibility. Buchholz could take alot of the innings away from him.

by drabidea on Jan 21, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wakefield...

is the worst pitcher I’ve ever seen attempt to throw a baseball. Now that I’ve lost some of you, here are my thoughts:

1. Smoltz will NOT pitch in the bullpen – he has already stated that. Because of this, I think the 70-80 IP is realistic.

2. Dice-K will not have another 2.90 ERA, but I think he’ll be in the 3’s (3.4-3.7). If he can somehow cut down in his BBs, then I absolutely think he can be LOW 3’s.

3. Wakefield blows and will have a double-digit ERA.

by rmarx01 on Jan 20, 2009 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Smoltz has said that he has preferred to start, but that he’s prepared to be used as the Red Sox see fit.

As Wakefield, every year people say he’s through and washed up, and he always pitches close to 200 innings with an ERA of 4.0-4.3, I expect more of the same.

by Schulz on Jan 20, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely right

He said that if the Sox wanted him to “just run out and get the rosin bag” he’d do it. I think he’d be OK with being a bullpen piece.

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Jan 20, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That is, John Smoltz.

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Jan 20, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

you are correct – I typed that wrong. Smoltz said that he PREFERS to be a SP, and knowing how classy the Sox are, we’re going to try as hard as we possibly can to keep him as a SP. If he ends up in the pen, it’ll be for a reason, and I’m sure he will understand.

I apologize for typing it incorrectly. Either way, Smoltz was an incredible pickup by the Sox!

by rmarx01 on Jan 20, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Richard Marx?

"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"

by britsoxfan on Jan 20, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

re

THE!

by rmarx01 on Jan 20, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well I hope you come back. I’ll be right here, waiting.

"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"

by britsoxfan on Jan 21, 2009 3:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Somehow, the name Marx immediately gives me a bad feeling.

Even in completely unrelated situations, such as this or this:

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 21, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He wasn't supposed to be a pitcher.

He was a 1B in high school (Eau Gallie High, Melbourne, FL), and he was goofing off with the knuckler when the pitching coach saw him and started talking to him about it.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody breaks 200 IP?

I’ve gotta think that at least one or two guys will throw 200 innings. I see both Lester and Beckett going at least 190, and I expect Lester’s ERA to be a little lower, while Beckett’s will be a little higher. Dice-K will throw more than 172, and I think Bowden will have about 25IP in spot starts.

by Schulz on Jan 20, 2009 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed to an extent

I agree that atleast one of the 3 will get to 200 innings. However, I am sure atleast one of them will get less then the projected above.

Will it be Lester? Will he keep it up from last year? There have been studies that show when a pitcher increases his pitch total by 30 the next year the majority of them slide in performance. Will Lester be the outlier and succeed? Or will he be like the majority and have an off year? I personally think that he will be an outlier but that is just a hunch?

Will Dice-K get rid of his walk problem and be able to pitch more then 5 innings a game? I personally think so but it is hard to predict.

Will Beckett stay healthy all year? I think so, but he has had injury problems in the past.

I DEFINITELY agree that Bowden will pitch 25 innings next year. However, it is very hard to estimate what his ERA will be because of lack of data. Will he keep up his 2.53 FIP from last year? Will he have a slump like Buchholz? The predictions for Bowden are so varying that I left him off the list. It is just too hard to predict.

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure SOMEONE will get 200 IP.

But would you bet money on any one of them doing it?

It’s tough to flip five heads in a row. But if you ask 100 people to do it, you’ll see it happen a few times.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 21, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd bet Beckett goes 200

Lester might need a little break this season after being one of the top five in pitches thrown last year.

by Schulz on Jan 22, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Its a wierd staff to project.

I don’t really expect many of these projections to be accurate because a bunch of these guys have huge questions attached. I expect someone, or two, to pitch 200 innings, but I also expect that someone will greatly under perform their projections. There is probably a solid chance that Smoltzie barely pitches this year, but an equivalent chance that he is awesome and gets in 130 innings. Same goes for Penny, Wake and Buch. We are so deep though that you know someone will step up.

by BTLove on Jan 20, 2009 7:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projections have to be taken with a grain of salt.

I’m sure that neither Bill James or Chone could have predicted that the Angels would be able to put themselves in save situations more than every third game. Or that the Rays would over take both the Red Sox and the Yankees because of breakout years from dozens of players, or the injuries of the Sox’ or MFY’ players.

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

projections by Starts

I took drabidea’s projections above and turned them into starts, if you assume everyone pitches 940/162=5.8 IP per GS.

Lester 31
Matsuzaka 30
Beckett 31
Wakefield 26
Buchholz 15
Penny 18
Smoltz 11

also I agree with Schulz that Bowden/AAA pitcher will get some starts. The projection has to be realistic, and very few teams, especialy with a staff as risk as this one, go through the whole year using only 7 starters.

by redsox9322 on Jan 21, 2009 12:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Smoltz

you have smoltz at 64 starting IP or 11 starts and 30 relief IP. Smoltz is projected to be ready by July 1, so he’ll pitch about half the season. 30 relief IP is half the season right there, so Smoltz CANNOT make 11 starts and throw 30 innings in the bullpen. 11 starts is probably about right, but only with 0 relief innings. Or you could give Smoltz 5 starts ( a month in the rotation) and 15-20 relief IP (1.5-2 months in the bullpen).

by redsox9322 on Jan 22, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

That argument makes perfect sense. He will probably only pitch out of the pen come playoffs, which those innings do not count in the prediction.

I will make a proposal to drop his relief innings in the relief pitcher thread.

Thanks for the input.

by drabidea on Jan 22, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bowden

Bowden probably gets ~40 IP or 7 GS. He’ll probably take starts away from Buchholz and Penny:

Smoltz 64?
Bowden 40
Buchholz 70
Penny 90

We need to factor in some innings for 6th starter types. Last year Pauley got 2 GS, Zink 1, and Bowden 1. Bowden ‘09 is better than all these pitchers; therefore he’ll probably get those 4-5 starts, and maybe more.

Also: we may want to make the total greater than 940 since it’s a good, deep staff. If everyone averages 6 IP/GS, then Sox get 972 IP from starters. Last year the Sox got 966.2 IP from starters, so 1000 IP is probably the maximum we can expect.

by redsox9322 on Jan 23, 2009 10:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs