2009 Starting Pitching Projection
by drabidea on Jan 19, 2009 9:02 PM EST
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PrintMost of you saw my earlier post on the community project on Beyond the Boxscore. I have made some changes to my spreadsheet due to the feedback I received. This time instead of posting the whole spreadsheet I am going to do it in segments.
Today's section is starting pitchers. The projection will be of each pitchers innings pitched and their ERAs. The ERA's listed are the average of Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel's projection of each pitcher's FIP. The innings listed are based off of the same average of Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel's projection. I did have to make some modifications to some of the pitchers innings pitched. This was so the total of all the pitchers is 940.
Please respond with what you think each pitcher's innings pitched and ERA will be next year. Please also let me know also if any of the numbers listed seem ridiculous.
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| Jon Lester | S | 179 | 4.09 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | S | 172 | 3.98 |
| Josh Beckett | S | 178 | 3.63 |
| Tim Wakefield | S | 150 | 4.32 |
| Clay Buchholz | S | 90 | 4.22 |
| Brad Penny | S | 107 | 4.09 |
| John Smoltz | S | 64 | 3.73 |
*Note that John Smoltz innings pitched have been split between Starting (64) and Relief (30). I left the ERA for starting and relief at the same (3.73). Let me know if these do not seem reasonable.
Next Post: Relief Pitchers
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If Dice-K keeps his ERA under 4, I'd be amazed.
Seems like he’s going to regress this year.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
Have faith in Dice-K
he is far more crafty than people give him credit for.
Personally I am looking for an under 4 era for Lester.
If the Red Sox get 94 innings and an ERA of under 4 from Smoltz, they are playing in the WS.
May I ask why 94?
And not like 95 or 93?
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 19, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Average Projection
CHONE projects 93 and Marcel projects 94. The average being 93.5 and I just rounded that to 94. Does 94 seem reasonable? Last year he pitched only 32 innings because of injury but the 3 years before 2008 he pitched over 200 innings.
Oh, I had no idea of his IP projections
Sorry, I just thought 94 was a weird number to be used as average. I should have guessed.
I don’t think he’ll throw 94 innings, I think he’ll be around 70-80 IP tops. Just a guess, based on his age and injury problem.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 20, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
No need to be sorry
I can understand the 70-80 innings projection. He is pretty old. I think the Sox signed him mostly as a mentor to the young guys.
Do other people think 70-80 innings range? or 90-100 range?
80-90 IP.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
60-70 IP
Smoltz will pitch, at most, half the year, which means 15 starts and 90 IP. I think he’ll get around 10-12 starts, 60-70 IP. Anything more than 90 IP is too optimistic.
I just added
the 64 starting innings + 30 relief from the note below the yellow box. I have no idea what Smoltz will really pitch.
CHONE and Marcel disagree
If you like this stuff.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 19, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
What do...
The Angels’ third baseman and the monkey from “Friends” have to do with any of this?
Oh. Wait…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 20, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
MARCEL!
Did he ever make into the San Diego Zoo? (My mom was addicted to that show)
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
God, Friends was awful
I have no idea why that shit got so much attention to begin with. World isn’t fair. Friends wins everything and everyone on Earth, while Married with Children never gets any award and Arrested Development gets cancelled after 2 seasons…
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 21, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Because America is filled with stupid people?
Hey, FNL doesn’t get the attention it deserves either.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
3 seasons for Arrested Development. Truly great television.
Though I think Friends was a lot better than most sitcoms on TV.
Dice-K
I think he will regress as well. His ERA of 2.90 will not hold up next year. However he did have a FIP of 4.03 last year. Which was still better then 2007 FIP of 4.23. I think he is still getting used to pitching in America and will continue to get better.
Don't need another conversation about the bet.
I disagree, for anyone who doesn’t know at this point.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
Wakefield
has pitched 140 innings once in the past 9 years. His lowest other then that year has been 163. Having him at 150 innings is saying that he will have the 3rd worst year of his long career with the Red Sox.
Unless someone has convincing evidence that his arm is going to fall off, I don’t think we should lower his innings.
[Everyone looks to NG]
Well?
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
I guess you may think it a premonition, BUT
I really do feel that Wakefield’s self-destruction in 2 or 3 of his last times out, which were about the biggest embarrassments to major league baseball I have ever seen, do mark his skill demise from age related reasons. Therefore, I seen no reason why his inadequate major league “stuff” will be any more adequate come opening day or soon thereafter. I think he is in for a very tough and embarrassing time, and for everyone’s sake, I wish he had/would just retire!
He doesn't have "stuff" and never has.
He relies on a trick pitch that has been very effective up until a few months ago. Blame global warming (the same one that made it almost snow in Tampa last night, and it could happen again tonight).
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
Yep.
Still hasn’t snowed, though. A bit of frozen dew, which made my grass completely brown. :(
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
Or there are better options and he's pushed out of the rotation...
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Not sure how that fits in the bet.
We might have to agree whether or not Wake would’ve continued if that option had not arose.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
Good Point
That is a definite possibility. Buchholz could take alot of the innings away from him.
Wakefield...
is the worst pitcher I’ve ever seen attempt to throw a baseball. Now that I’ve lost some of you, here are my thoughts:
1. Smoltz will NOT pitch in the bullpen – he has already stated that. Because of this, I think the 70-80 IP is realistic.
2. Dice-K will not have another 2.90 ERA, but I think he’ll be in the 3’s (3.4-3.7). If he can somehow cut down in his BBs, then I absolutely think he can be LOW 3’s.
3. Wakefield blows and will have a double-digit ERA.
Smoltz has said that he has preferred to start, but that he’s prepared to be used as the Red Sox see fit.
As Wakefield, every year people say he’s through and washed up, and he always pitches close to 200 innings with an ERA of 4.0-4.3, I expect more of the same.
Absolutely right
He said that if the Sox wanted him to “just run out and get the rosin bag” he’d do it. I think he’d be OK with being a bullpen piece.
The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble
by DirtySouthSox on Jan 20, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
That is, John Smoltz.
The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble
by DirtySouthSox on Jan 20, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
sorry
you are correct – I typed that wrong. Smoltz said that he PREFERS to be a SP, and knowing how classy the Sox are, we’re going to try as hard as we possibly can to keep him as a SP. If he ends up in the pen, it’ll be for a reason, and I’m sure he will understand.
I apologize for typing it incorrectly. Either way, Smoltz was an incredible pickup by the Sox!
The Richard Marx?
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Jan 20, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well I hope you come back. I’ll be right here, waiting.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
Somehow, the name Marx immediately gives me a bad feeling.
Even in completely unrelated situations, such as this or this:
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
He wasn't supposed to be a pitcher.
He was a 1B in high school (Eau Gallie High, Melbourne, FL), and he was goofing off with the knuckler when the pitching coach saw him and started talking to him about it.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
Nobody breaks 200 IP?
I’ve gotta think that at least one or two guys will throw 200 innings. I see both Lester and Beckett going at least 190, and I expect Lester’s ERA to be a little lower, while Beckett’s will be a little higher. Dice-K will throw more than 172, and I think Bowden will have about 25IP in spot starts.
Agreed to an extent
I agree that atleast one of the 3 will get to 200 innings. However, I am sure atleast one of them will get less then the projected above.
Will it be Lester? Will he keep it up from last year? There have been studies that show when a pitcher increases his pitch total by 30 the next year the majority of them slide in performance. Will Lester be the outlier and succeed? Or will he be like the majority and have an off year? I personally think that he will be an outlier but that is just a hunch?
Will Dice-K get rid of his walk problem and be able to pitch more then 5 innings a game? I personally think so but it is hard to predict.
Will Beckett stay healthy all year? I think so, but he has had injury problems in the past.
I DEFINITELY agree that Bowden will pitch 25 innings next year. However, it is very hard to estimate what his ERA will be because of lack of data. Will he keep up his 2.53 FIP from last year? Will he have a slump like Buchholz? The predictions for Bowden are so varying that I left him off the list. It is just too hard to predict.
Sure SOMEONE will get 200 IP.
But would you bet money on any one of them doing it?
It’s tough to flip five heads in a row. But if you ask 100 people to do it, you’ll see it happen a few times.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I'd bet Beckett goes 200
Lester might need a little break this season after being one of the top five in pitches thrown last year.
Its a wierd staff to project.
I don’t really expect many of these projections to be accurate because a bunch of these guys have huge questions attached. I expect someone, or two, to pitch 200 innings, but I also expect that someone will greatly under perform their projections. There is probably a solid chance that Smoltzie barely pitches this year, but an equivalent chance that he is awesome and gets in 130 innings. Same goes for Penny, Wake and Buch. We are so deep though that you know someone will step up.
Projections have to be taken with a grain of salt.
I’m sure that neither Bill James or Chone could have predicted that the Angels would be able to put themselves in save situations more than every third game. Or that the Rays would over take both the Red Sox and the Yankees because of breakout years from dozens of players, or the injuries of the Sox’ or MFY’ players.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
projections by Starts
I took drabidea’s projections above and turned them into starts, if you assume everyone pitches 940/162=5.8 IP per GS.
Lester 31
Matsuzaka 30
Beckett 31
Wakefield 26
Buchholz 15
Penny 18
Smoltz 11
also I agree with Schulz that Bowden/AAA pitcher will get some starts. The projection has to be realistic, and very few teams, especialy with a staff as risk as this one, go through the whole year using only 7 starters.
Smoltz
you have smoltz at 64 starting IP or 11 starts and 30 relief IP. Smoltz is projected to be ready by July 1, so he’ll pitch about half the season. 30 relief IP is half the season right there, so Smoltz CANNOT make 11 starts and throw 30 innings in the bullpen. 11 starts is probably about right, but only with 0 relief innings. Or you could give Smoltz 5 starts ( a month in the rotation) and 15-20 relief IP (1.5-2 months in the bullpen).
Agreed
That argument makes perfect sense. He will probably only pitch out of the pen come playoffs, which those innings do not count in the prediction.
I will make a proposal to drop his relief innings in the relief pitcher thread.
Thanks for the input.
Bowden
Bowden probably gets ~40 IP or 7 GS. He’ll probably take starts away from Buchholz and Penny:
Smoltz 64?
Bowden 40
Buchholz 70
Penny 90
We need to factor in some innings for 6th starter types. Last year Pauley got 2 GS, Zink 1, and Bowden 1. Bowden ‘09 is better than all these pitchers; therefore he’ll probably get those 4-5 starts, and maybe more.
Also: we may want to make the total greater than 940 since it’s a good, deep staff. If everyone averages 6 IP/GS, then Sox get 972 IP from starters. Last year the Sox got 966.2 IP from starters, so 1000 IP is probably the maximum we can expect.
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