Cafardo's Deep Postseason Wisdom
Merriam-Webster defines depth as, among other things:
"the quality of being profound (as in insight) or full (as of knowledge)..."
To be honest, I had a hard time conceptualizing this, at least until I saw the picture of Boston Globe sportswriter Nick Cafardo next to the definition.
Cafardo writes in his weekly Baseball Notes column on postseason performance. In keeping with the fine tradition of his work on the 2003 draft, he displays superb wit and acumen in the article.
For many teams, it's about getting deep into the postseason, winning it all. Yet how much thought goes into rosters to make sure teams have the players that will perform once they get there?
This is a great question. My guess: three whole minutes of thought. Let's keep going.
Since 2002, the Angels have been a consistent division winner, but they never seem to get very far. Why is that?
Another searching question from St. Nick. Let's anticipate his answer:
1) The Angels front office builds teams that emphasize making outs (steals, squeeze plays) rather than doing things that are more consistent with scoring runs (hitting homers, getting on base consistently).
2) Mike Scioscia's overrated managing and philosophy of aggressiveness actually hurts the team. See 2008 ALDS, Game Four.
3) It's pretty easy to win a division when there are only three other teams in it. And when two of them are the Mariners and Rangers. And when the third team (Oakland) averages $40 million less in payroll than your team does, and is constantly rebuilding.
Are we right?
Do they have players that just can't come up big in the biggest moments?
Huh? Is Nick Cafardo, exemplar of all that is great in sports writing, inspiration of little children, and defender of the game of baseball, truly judging players on just a handful of playoff at-bats?
The Angels added Mark Teixeira in late July and he provided some much-needed thump to their lineup. While Teixeira did more than his teammates in the playoffs (seven singles and one RBI in 15 at-bats), it wasn't enough.
Teixeira didn't pick up the ball and throw 18 shut-out innings, while hitting five homeruns, to win Games Four and Five. All he did was hit .467 / .550 / .467, and constantly get on base. Clearly the sort of guy you don't want to re-sign.
Respected Indians general manager Mark Shapiro says identifying solid postseason players is difficult.
Shapiro then launched into a long discussion of player evaluation, and how judging a player based on a few dozen postseason at-bats is misguided and foolish. But Little Nicky was bored and fell asleep, so rather than try to digest what was written, he just copied and pasted it from the email.
"In this market and in my opinion, [seeking good postseason players] is one small attribute that could be an added bonus but not a real driver in a decision," he wrote in an e-mail. "Postseason experience and, really, pennant race experience is meaningful in the ups and downs of a pennant race but difficult to quantify, and the bottom line is performance.
"We look at a lot of variables in the decision-making process - primarily subjective (scouting), objective (statistics), medical, financial, mental makeup, and personality. The experience you mentioned could fit in as a small, positive intangible that helps shape decisions but not impact them in a meaningful way."
All work and no play makes Nicky a very dull boy. All work and no play makes Nicky a very dull boy. All work and... Hey, let's talk about the Yankees!
This offseason, the Yankees went wild with the signings of Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett. Sabathia's postseason history is poor - 2-3. 7.92 ERA. Burnett has never pitched in the postseason. Incumbent Chien-Ming Wang, a two-time 19-game winner, is 1-3 with a 7.58 ERA in four postseason starts. Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, arguably the best all-around player in the game, is hitting .159 in his last 44 postseason at-bats with one homer and one RBI.
Let's not mention that Sabathia has been worked to the bone each of the past two seasons. Or that A-Rod's career postseason line is .279 / .361 / .483, or that he hit .421 / .476 / .737 in the 2004 ALDS? Spoils the mood, doesn't it?
Speaking of playoff failure, how 'bout them Cubs?
The Cubs have fizzled in their last two playoff appearances because of a lack of offense. Derrek Lee hit .545 (6 for 11) against the Dodgers in last season's Division Series, but didn't drive in a run.
Funny, I thought the Cubs lost because Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano combined for 11 runs in 11 innings. Nick Scratch knows better - it was because Lee didn't hit a homerun in every at bat. Choker.
The Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 and '07 because they had players such as Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Manny Ramírez, David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, and Jonathan Papelbon who...
Let's play Fill In the Answer. Which of the following completes the sentence:
A) "were good or great players at the top of their game."
B) "made fewer mistakes and got luckier in a small sample size."
C) "stepped up their games when it counted most."
Time's up! Nick chose C. See me after class, son. Bring your parents. And a belt.
I want to stop, but I can't. It's like I've crossed the event horizon and can't escape the gravitational pull of this column's stupidity.
"[Identifying good postseason players] is certainly not a primary consideration - more of a secondary factor at best," said Sox GM Theo Epstein. "Ted Williams didn't perform in the postseason . . . I would take him!"
Epstein then explained to Nick that Ted Williams was one of the greatest baseball players ever, and he only ever had 25 playoff AB in his 21 year career. But Nick just covered up his ears and started singing "My Humps" at the top of his voice.
Well, Nick, we're having fun with your piece, but could you make it more poignant? Maybe suggest that the Sox won't win a World Series without Manny, or something?
In the playoffs is when the Sox will miss Ramírez most.
Hallelujah!
In 2007, they had a fearsome threesome of Ortiz, Ramírez, and Lowell. Intimidating to any pitcher, no matter how good.
Whereas Ortiz, Bay, Lowell is only mildly off-putting, only slightly vexacious. And since we're judging players by small sample sizes, Bay's .341/ .471 / .634 postseason line (41 AB) is especially tepid.
There's much more (Geovany Soto + Aramis Ramirez = unclutch?!), but I want to skip ahead to the "juicy" finale...
Of course, players can reverse their fortunes [in the playoffs]. Barry Bonds hit .196 in his first 97 postseason at-bats with one homer and six RBIs, before he exploded for eight homers and 16 RBIs in the 2002 playoffs, including a .471 average in the World Series with four homers and six RBIs.
Bonds' improvement was a real shot in the arm for the Giants. The team was really in the clear when they saw Bonds creaming the ball. I wonder what changed things around for him. I seem to recall some big news story about that, maybe hearings in Congress, possibly some report. Of course, I wouldn't expect a luminary like Cafardo to worry about such trifling facts.
3 recs |
39 comments
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Comments
When our lineup is healthy...
…no one can compete with us. Pedroia, Youk, Papi, Bay, Lowell, and Drew are all well above league average hitters, and most of them are among the most reliable fielders at their positions. Ellsbury and Lowrie were both rookies last year and proved they’re at least league average and probably a little better, especially given what Ells showed us in the 2007 playoffs and Lowrie’s broken hand. Our only glaring hole in the lineup is at catcher, and it’s not like the supply of top catchers is plentiful.
by RSNexile on Jan 18, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Exactly. We can even get by pretty decently if Bard, Kottaras or Brown are behind the plate.
by Randy Booth on Jan 18, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree completely
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 18, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I took his comment about Lee not driving in a run as a refelction of how captacular the rest of the Cubbies on-base skillz were.
I thought this was interesting, from further down in the article.
Julio Lugo, SS, Red Sox: He’s serious about competing for the shortstop job. He opted out of winter ball to devote his time to conditioning and has gained 20 pounds of muscle. Jed Lowrie will be challenged.
Maybe it will help him regain some power – as he has been pretty anemic for the last coule of years – but I’ve got to think bulking up will kill his range, making him a less rangy shortstop with an innaccurate arm.
The interview with Lajoie was interesting too.
NC: What did you think of the Red Sox’ moves? First of all, the two Dodgers – Takashi Saito and Brad Penny?
BL: “Saito is one of the nicest people you’ll ever meet. I enjoyed him a great deal. Until he had his elbow problems he put up some amazing numbers. He’s got great control. The fact he didn’t have surgery tells me he’s got something left and he should really help that bullpen. Penny is a guy you have to keep on top of, but I’m sure he’s going to report in good shape. I think it’s good that he’s reunited with Josh Beckett because when they were together in Florida they really competed with one another. I thought that was very healthy, and hopefully they can continue that healthy competition in Boston.”
Excellent. Let’s hope he’s right.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jan 18, 2009 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just what we need
Julio Lugo with less range than before.
He can’t hit, and he can’t field. Bulking up is only going to solve one of those problems. (Also, given that he apparently can’t throw accurately, either, makes me wonder what the heck he’s actually good at, other than stealing bases.)
by lone1c on Jan 18, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who do people bash Lugo's defense?
According to fangraphs he’s the 4th best SS in baseball at getting outs on balls hit in his direction.
Link: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-derek-jeter-conspiracy
by Gnick on Jan 18, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But if he bulks up he may get slower.
And I think we all remember what happened to Nomar when he bulked up.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Jan 18, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on what statistics you look at
At some point early last season, I remember that the Sox had about 30 errors—of which HALF were attributed to Lugo.
He was on pace for 32 errors last season. That’s outrageous for someone making as well-paid as Lugo is.
by lone1c on Jan 18, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was Bonds a post-season monster? Oi! Don’t imply anything.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Jan 18, 2009 4:03 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Why imply when you can just say it outright?
Rec’d.
by RSNexile on Jan 18, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Recommended.
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Jan 18, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reply fail
to britsoxfan, sorry RSNexile.
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Jan 18, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nicely done man.
Makes me miss FJM even more.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Jan 18, 2009 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Can't really play Taps for this.
Is their a slightly less formal song?
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 18, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about
www.firescottboras.com ? Someone make a site like that.
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Jan 18, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No current page with that URL.
Contact Kenny Rogers about it. The pitcher, not the singer.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 18, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
You comment a lot, go ahead and make one.
Oh, and www.firescottboras.com ©
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Jan 19, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have the time.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 19, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
0157H7?
It would set the world record for rec’s.
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Jan 20, 2009 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
YES!
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm gonna go ahead and say that
Nick Cafardo is a dumbass.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Jan 18, 2009 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
Great post, E-coli.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 18, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Depth: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=depth
Well, I'll appreciate for you to keep my zingers outta your mouth!
by BoSox415 on Jan 18, 2009 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
if lugo shows up and busts his ass, all the better. we are stuck with the guy anyhow if we get anything out of him, it’s bonus. I hope he comes out and does great so we can trade the little shit.
by matzushocka45 on Jan 18, 2009 8:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I want to see Lugo go for a ball in ST, over run it because he's not adapted to having more momentum...
and then fall flat on his face. And somehow the ball would still end up in the stands above first base.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 18, 2009 9:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What ever happened to Ellsbury’s amazing bunts we saw in the beginning of the season and last October?
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."
by revigik on Jan 18, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ah, ou sont les bunts d’antans? These existential questions grip us all in the bleak midwinter.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Jan 19, 2009 3:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
French 2 Translation:
Where are the bunts of… the past year?
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 19, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oui. Well close enough. (And also see Catch-22.)
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Jan 20, 2009 3:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, cool!
I just found out today that I got a nearly perfect score on a French 2 test from Friday that I thought I failed. YAY!
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well done.
"no1 has time to read your long comments, are you writing a book?"
by britsoxfan on Jan 20, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
Still cheat on the HW though. Google Translater sucks sometimes, but the general idea gets through. I wanted to take German, but the teacher retired/got fired/quit. So they stuck most of the kids in French.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 20, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love this: “Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Manny Ramírez, David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn…” …wait, Bellhorn?? Really?? Thank you for proving our point that you are over-valuing some small playoff sample sizes, often which are flukey. Is he really trying to claim the Sox knew Bellhorn would at the perfect time come in clutch despite a career of stats that suggested the opposite would happen???
by Realistic on Jan 19, 2009 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Awesome name proof.
For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jan 19, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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