Most Valuable Pedroia
by drabidea on Sep 5, 2008 11:31 AM EDT
56 comments
We have all heard the recent hoopla stating that Dustin Pedroia should be considered for MVP this year. Lets like at why
1st in runs (110) beating Ian Kinsler with 102. First in hits (191) beating Ichiro with 182. Tied for 2nd in doubles (44) just below Brian Roberts with 47. 1st in average with .333. 3rd in total bases (290) behind Josh Hamilton (295) and Aubrey Huff (303). Not to mention his near gold glove defense at 2B.
Do you guys think he deserves the AL MVP award? If not who do you think it should be?
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Carlos Quentin has been better all season
Also, let’s not forget about Morneau, Bradley and Sizemore. Right now, it seems like it’s between Justin Morneau, Carlos Quentin and, indeed, Dustin Pedroia.
I’m not sure who would get my vote. Let’s wait a bit more.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Sep 5, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hard to believe he will be better than Pedroia now.
He’s out for the rest of the season probably.
Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you./Education is the best defense against the media./The Lord's Prayer=66 words, the Gettysburg Address=286words, the Declaration of Independence=1,322 words, government regulations on the sale of cabbage=26,911 words
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 5, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The MVP isn't about who's better
It’s about who’s more valuable. And no one is more valuable than a player who plays well all season, then puts the team on his shoulders and carries them into the playoffs when half the roster goes on the DL.
Pedroia deserves serious consideration, and he gets extra credit because all those other guys you mentioned play on teams that have been floundering lately.
by RSNexile on Sep 5, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Going against my anti-Rays thinking here:
Evan Longoria might deserve serious consideration for the MVP. He may have lost the ROY with his injury, but the MVP is proven by how much of an impact he had on a team that would probably be a dozen wins or more loser if not for him. That said, the production of Aybar in his place may have hurt him.
Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you./Education is the best defense against the media./The Lord's Prayer=66 words, the Gettysburg Address=286words, the Declaration of Independence=1,322 words, government regulations on the sale of cabbage=26,911 words
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 5, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't argue with that
But he’s going to have to get back in the lineup and finish strong and Tampa is going to have to hold on to the division for him to have a chance.
Besides, his 22 HR and 71 RBI are pretty close to what Pedroia has done (17 and 76), but Pedroia has 55 points in batting average and 26 in OBP on him while only giving up about 25 in slugging, he hasn’t missed time to injury, and he’s been the sparkplug for the Sox to start closing in on the Rays. Personally, I’d be more inclined to vote for Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau over Longoria. And speaking of injured players, there’s no way Longoria beats out Quentin.
by RSNexile on Sep 5, 2008 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a little early to start this talk.
A lot could happen in the next few weeks. The leader for the award is definitely Carlos Quentin (great #s, league-leading 36 HRs), so long as the ChiSox make the playoffs. If they don’t, then Pedroia becomes a better candidate.
The best reason to vote for Pedroia is that he plays a position up the middle with great defense as well as hitting. Quentin has better numbers, but at a traditional power hitter position. He’s also shown some base-stealing ability (17 SB: 1 CS), and improved power with 17 HR.
by 0157H7 on Sep 5, 2008 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Would you rather have Pedroia over A-Rod?
Our esteemed Rob Bradford would, as he explains in this article.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Sep 5, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bradley
Milton Bradley has been the best player in the AL so far, but he has almost no chance of winning the award unfortunately.
by Gnick on Sep 5, 2008 9:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Because he's not the best player in the AL.
He’s basically a full-time DH for a non-contender. He’s not having a Papi-2006 season (when he should’ve won the MVP, but the voters went with Justin Morneau), and what he has provided isn’t good enough. That said, he’s a better pick than Morneau or Mauer this year.
by 0157H7 on Sep 5, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why do people underrate Morneau so much?
His MVP might not have been all that fair, but his team was great in 2006, he was the sure leader of the team, and he is a positional player who plays great defense. Papi and Hafner had great seasons in 2006, but they are 2 DHs who played for teams that did not hit the POs. Much like Bradley today. So Morneau was a good choice, and would be a good choice to win it today. But I’d give the edge to Pedroia and Quentin (despite the injury).
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Sep 6, 2008 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why do people OVERRATE Morneau so much?
1) He’s a nice white boy that the media likes to celebrate.
2) He’s the best (only) slugger on an offensively challenged team.
Choosing Morneau in 2006 was absolutely inexcusable. He wasn’t even the most valuable position player on the team – that distinction goes to Joe Mauer, who lead the league in BA as a catcher that year. In terms of positional defense, catching is way more valuable than playing 1B.
If the Kansas City Royals made the postseason, would that make Jose Guillen (.252 / .287 / .430, 18 HR) their MVP? [No, because he’s not a nice white boy.] The MVP should be about recognizing excellence, not elevating mediocrity.
by 0157H7 on Sep 6, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
if you compare Mauer and Morneau offensively this year, Morneau is barely a touch better — basically the same OBP with Morneau having a slightly higher SLG — but he’s really not a big slugger.
if you go by WPA (which includes clutch), Morneau and Mauer are neck and neck. going by WPA/LI (which removes clutch), Morneau’s ahead about about half a win.
but then you’ve got defense, where a catcher is worth two wins more than a 1B over the course of a season. and Mauer is at least as good of a defensive catcher as Morneau is a defensive first baseman. it really should be obvious that Mauer is the more productive and valuable player on the Twins.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 6, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excuse me?!
People OVERRATE Morneau now? Who overrate him? Back in HR Derby, they called him JASON. JASON. People do not give a fuck about Justin Morneau, and they should. He’s a damn fine player.
He was (and is, actually) the leader of the Twins offense. He is. Not Mauer. But, indeed, Mauer should have ended higher in that MVP voting, but I’m not sure if he should have been ahead of Morneau. As much as it hurts me to say it, maybe that was Jeter’s year. But I’m okay with the guy who won it.
If the Kansas City Royals had the best record in the AL, and a guy with the numbers (and Morneau had it, not quite the ones Papi and Hafner posted, but very nice however), why not let him run for MVP? MVP is not about the best player, otherwise they wouldn’t even need to have that award in the NL. They should just handle to Pujols every year, because we all know he’s the best player in baseball today. I agree with you on that MVP should be about recognizing excellence, and actually it is. But on a winning team.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Sep 6, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
given how much MVP talk Morneau gets, he's overrated
I’ll give you that Morneau is a slightly better offensive player than Mauer and thus more important to the offense. But since when does playing baseball end with offense? Pitching and defense win championships, right? So do you take a first basemen with good offensive skills or a catcher with nearly equal offensive skills? Seems like a no-brainer, right? I mean, what if Morneau was able to play catcher? Would that make him a TON more valuable? That’s Mauer.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Mauer is underrated
But he’s Mauer. He’s not an average catcher. His OBP is crazy. He’s quite maybe the best catcher in the game today. I’m not sold on his defensive skills, but that production is awesome for his position. However, that doesn’t mean Morneau is overrated. People talk more about him because he has far more power, and has a shitload of RBIs (not that I care much about this one). But even so, people just do not talk about him and Mauer. Which is a shame, because they are two great young players. And they both should be in MVP talks. Like Pedroia and Youk.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Sep 7, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not arguing Morneau is overrated because Mauer is underrated
they are separate arguments.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I missed your point a bit
Sorry. BTW, I don’t know why Mauer don’t get more MVP love. Maybe the voters think the MVP should bomb at least 30 homers or so. :)
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Sep 7, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't matter who the best player is
The MVP is supposed to go to the most valuable player, not the best one. The reason Bradley shouldn’t get the MVP this year isn’t because he isn’t the best player, though he isn’t, but because he isn’t even the most valuable player on his team, let alone in the entire league.
by RSNexile on Sep 6, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bradley
Milton Bradley has an OPS of 1.029, thats what we’re accustomed to seeing from ARod or Pujols. Just because he plays for a losing team doesn’t mean he is not valuable, that team would lose even more without him.
by Gnick on Sep 6, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So they'd be 25 games out of the wild card instead of 15?
Big deal!
by RSNexile on Sep 6, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very well played, sir
That pretty much nails why the MVP must come from a winning team. Hey, life’s a bitch.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Sep 6, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Texas Pitching
But its not his fault that their pitching is giving up 8 runs a game
by Gnick on Sep 6, 2008 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said
Life’s a bitch. You could have the best season like ever, but if your team sucks, you’re going down with it. I mean, you don’t have to play in winning teams to be in the HoF, but you should be playing in a winning one to be MVP. At least I think so.
Mother---- him and John Wayne!
by MerryGoByeBye on Sep 6, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it's necessary to be on a winning team
But I do think the MVP should only go to a player on a non-contending team if he’s extraordinarily dominant and there are no other players worthy of serious consideration.
For instance, suppose one of the Mariners was hitting .300 with 35 HR and 120 RBI right now. Those are MVP-quality numbers, but the Mariners are going to lose 100 games this year. But every team wins 50 games and loses 50, and it’s what they do with the other 62 that matter. With that hypothetical Mariner, the M’s still lose 50 of the 62 remaining games, so while he may well be the best player in the league this year, he really isn’t all that valuable.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what?
It also wouldn’t be to his credit if their pitchers were all Cy Young contenders, but it’s a lot easier to be a productive player when there’s nothing at stake but a lot harder when whether or not your team makes the playoffs depends on your success. Ultimately, if you have two players with identical statistics but one put them up for a last place team and the other for a contender and the difference between the teams is pitching rather than hitting, the player from the winning team is more valuable because he makes a difference in the playoff picture.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but the question remains
if two players don’t have identical stats, how far ahead does the one on the non-playoff team have to be in order to finish ahead of the other one? most people say there isn’t a gap wide enough.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the point
That’s why Bradley doesn’t deserve consideration this year — because his numbers aren’t better than the other contenders and he plays for a team that’s been out of the race since February.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball is team game
its incorrect to assume that one player on any team can actually propel his team to the playoffs. People talk about Pedroia carrying us right but before last night we had given up 26 runs in our last 10 games. That is what it carrying us right now. You can’t simplify a team being a contender or not on one or two players, it depends on all 25. The best player will always inherently be the most valuable.
by Gnick on Sep 7, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong again
For several years, the best player in baseball was Barry Bonds. Yet he made him team worse most of those years by being a clubhouse cancer, with very tangible effects on the won-lost record. He was definitely not the most valuable player.
No pitcher is ever the best player in baseball. In a 162 game season, a guy who plays 34 or 35 times can’t possibly make the biggest contribution to a team’s success, statistically speaking. Yet pitchers sometimes win the MVP because their dominance sets a tone for the team, even in games when they’re not playing.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not arguing for Bradley, he's also missed a lot of time and hasn't added any defensive value
i was asking a theoretical question. how do you know how much to discount a non-contender’s stats?
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know many people incorporate more than "best player" into MVP
so feel free to do that. but Sizemore has been the best player by far in the AL this year. then comes ARod. and then a whole bunch of guys including Pedroia, Quentin, Mauer (getting the shaft again), Kinsler, Roberts, Hamilton, and others
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 6, 2008 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't matter who is the best player
Read the requirements for the reward — the voters are instructed to vote for the player who is most valuable to his team. That’s why you almost never see the best player in the league on a bad team finishing anywhere near the top of the voting.
I don’t concede that Sizemore has been the best player in the league, but so what if he has? So his team is 15 games out of wild card contention with him instead of 25 without him? So what?
But the White Sox aren’t in the playoff race without Quentin, the Twins don’t get anywhere without Mauer and Morneau, and the Sox are in trouble without Pedroia lately.
by RSNexile on Sep 6, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my comment wasn't trying to convince you that Sizemore should be MVP -- read my post
i was just pointing out that Sizemore has been the best player, which I think is also worth a mention.
if not Sizemore, who do you think has been the most productive? Sizemore can stack up to almost anyone offensively (don’t forget the SB/CS numbers and large PA total). and when you compare his defensive value to guys who have him beat offensively (Quentin’s the main guy), he comes out way ahead. A CF is worth a full win more than a corner outfielder and 1.5 wins more than a first baseman. And Sizemore is a full win better than the average CF. Quentin rates below average in RF this year. That’s at least a 2.5 win gap defensively. Do you know how big of an OPS lead you’d have to have to be worth 2.5 wins offensively over 600 PAs? About .125 points.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Offensively, with the exception of SB and RBI...
…he’s similar to Quentin, and I’d call those differences a wash. Regarding plate appearances, Sizemore has hit leadoff most of the year, which accounts for most of the difference. That also inflates Sizemore’s HR total, since he’s had that many more PA’s, though it probably deflates his RBI total somewhat, so call that a wash too. That means Sizemore’s only edge over Quentin is defense, which isn’t debatable. But Hamilton has better overall numbers at the plate and doesn’t give up very much to Sizemore in the field, so Sizemore isn’t even the best outfielder in the league this year.
But since the question we’re discussing here is the MVP, if Quentin and Sizemore are so similar, Quentin is more valuable because he’s put up his numbers for a team in the pennant race.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
having extra plate appearances isn't an unfair advantage
the more plate appearances you give a player, the more they can do to help your team win.
Quentin and Sizemore are NOT “so similar”. their defensive difference is HUGE — it’s like 2.5 to 3 wins! that’s the offensive difference between Quentin and David Dejesus — big, no?
————
i know i risk backlash by posting this link, but Justin does a fantastic job properly weighting offensive performance, position and fielding. he park adjusts things and all the nitty-gritty. i’m NOT claiming this is a good MVP list, just an overall list of which player have produced the most. and if you want to replace his offensive number with something that includes clutch (like WPA) i’m not going to argue. but just look how much ahead of the field Sizemore is in the AL. look how much his position and fielding are worth!
another reason for Sox fans to put some faith in these numbers: Pedroia is the top-ranted player in a playoff race, just ahead of Joe Mauer.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfdux2FC_hs6ROEQ&gid=1
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said it was an unfair advantage
And you’re still forgetting that difference of about 15 RBI, and I think you’re overvaluing SB.
Further, you’re still ignoring that Hamilton has a higher BA, more HR and RBI, and doesn’t give up much to Sizemore on defense. Sizemore might be doing better right now, but unfortunately for your argument, the MVP isn’t awarded based on performance over the last day, week, month, or even since the all-star break. It’s given for the whole year. By any objective measure, Hamilton > Sizemore for the whole year.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RBIs are hogwash, a result of batting order; and AVG is near hogwash...
once you consider that it doesn’t fully measure ability to get on base or the number of bases from each hit – why not just use OBP and SLG instead? and if you look at slugging percentage, Sizemore is only .025 points behind Hamilton, which is a wash when you consider Hamilton’s home ballpark. and by OBP, Sizemore has a .020 point advantage.
i NEVER mentioned anything about recent performance vs. performance over the whole year. in fact, i agree that every plate appearance is equally valuable.
i disagree that Hamilton doesn’t give up much to Sizemore on defense. Hamilton is a touch below average in center and has played some right field. Sizemore is very good in center field.
and as for SBs, i agree it’s a small effect, about 3-4 runs for Sizemore.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
regarding Hamilton
his offensive production has dropped off a bit — Sizemore is better, especially when you consider ballpark and SB/CS. and then factor in that Hamilton has played some corner outfield and Sizemore is a significantly better fielder.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i tend to think
‘value’ is measured along a scale very similar to ‘best’. Youk was the MVP of the Sox before he went out with the injury. Pedroia is picking up the slack, and if he keeps hitting at his current pace in September, he should be in the MVP talk.
Bradley is out because he’s been injured and he’s only a DH.
I thought Quentin was the frontrunner, but if he misses the stretch run because he broke his own wrist? Yeah, that kind of voids any candidacy.
Longoria was doing well before the injury. He’s still the best candidate for RoY, I would think.
I like Sizemore, and would be happy to argue for his candidacy, but I know how voters think. He’ll get a lot of 2nd and 3rd place votes.
by RickD on Sep 6, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For another measure of how awesome Pedroia is
check out this comparison:
Derek Jeter: 602 PA, .294 / .355 / .400, 9 HR, 31.1 VORP
Dustin Pedroia: 638 PA, .332 / .378 / .505, 17 HR, 59.1 VORP
More importantly.
Jeter 2008 salary: $20 Million
Pedroia 2008 salary: $0.457Million
(Source: Cot’s Baseball Contracts)
by 0157H7 on Sep 6, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Derek Jeter = O-VER-A-TED!
He who hesitates is tagged out between first and second base./ Media is plural for mediocre./ If the left part of the brain controls the right part of the body, then only lefties are in the right mind.
by BoSox415 on Sep 6, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
However ...
Jeter: 107 FPORP*
Pedroia: 15 FPORP
*FPORP measures how many fist pumps a player contributes to his team compared to an average player.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Sep 6, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one problem with requiring the MVP to be on a playoff contender
is that MVPs are used down the road to judge how good a player was. like in Hall of Fame discussions. imagine looking back in twenty years and noting that Grady Sizemore only finished 8th in the 2008 MVP race. “how could he be a Hall of Famer if people only thought he was the 8th best player that year?” the problem is that people totally forget MVPs have storylines involved down the road and treat them as a pure measure of talent.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So what?
Again, the award goes to the most valuable player of the year, not the best one.
Look, Ernie Banks played his entire career with a Chicago Cubs franchise that stunk most of the time. He won two MVP awards anyway in years when his team was nowhere near the pennant race, but otherwise was rarely considered seriously for the award. No one ever seriously suggested he didn’t belong in the Hall of Fame because he wasn’t among the top 5 in the MVP race most years, and I’d bet he got more respect for winning twice despite being on such lousy teams.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best player is inherently the most valuable one
Say we’re using the statistic VORP to determine who is the best, in that case the best player is also by definition the one with the most VALUE over replacement player.
by Gnick on Sep 7, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm with you, but you'll quickly learn nobody else buys an argument as simple as that.
i prefer to just let people create whatever definition of MVP they want, then tackle the DIFFERENT question of who the best player has been. and you can often makes some important points by playing by their MVP rules — like showing Mauer is a much better option than Morneau.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
VORP doesn't factor in defense.
It’s exclusively offense, adjusted for position. So it’s not the best measure of a player’s value.
by 0157H7 on Sep 7, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong again
As I posted above, Barry Bonds was the best player in baseball for years, even after he stopped winning MVPs every year. But he wasn’t the most valuable anymore, not once the legal implications of his steroid use started catching up to him.
Case in point, the best player in baseball right now is probably Albert Pujols, maybe A-Rod. But neither is going to win the MVP this year, nor should they. (Well, A-Rod shouldn’t at least. Pujols at least deserves some consideration.)
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you want to hold players Hall of Fame candidacy's contingent on the quality of the players surrounding them?
that’s pretty dumb.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ignore that last comment
i misread your point. sorry.
i agree that people SHOULD ignore MVPs (and Cy Youngs to a lesser extent) for Hall of Fame voting. but the fact is that they usually don’t (at least completely), the Ernie Banks example excluded. by the way, Ernie winning two MVPs on losing team is great support for players on losings winning the award these days. cough Sizemore cough.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So because other people do stupid things, we should too?
Do I really need to tell you what’s wrong with that argument?
And check out who the competition was the years Banks won the award and what kind of numbers they put up relative to his. That’s an argument for someone on a lousy team winning the award when he’s so dominant and no one else puts up MVP-worthy numbers, not a generic argument for any good player on a lousy team.
by RSNexile on Sep 7, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i didn't make the argument you accuse me of
in fact, i’m on your side, in the sense that i want to pick the MVP MY WAY, not how others define it — the BBWAA members specifically.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
MVP Comparisons
I did some searching and I found a middle infielder who won ROY and MVP the next year. I decided to compare their stats to DP’s projected stats for this year. Also the team he was on went on to win the division and the World Series, but I digress.
Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Ripken 162 663 121 211 47 2 27 102 0 4 58 97 .318 .371 .517 .888
Pedroia 159 664 123 217 54 2 18 85 18 1 52 52 .327 .379 .498 .877
I just don’t see how this is much of a different situation. The only big difference I can see is the .011 OPS difference and I am sure that the 18 SB surely makes up for that.
by drabidea on Sep 16, 2008 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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