Got Momemtum?

by 0157H7 on Sep 3, 2008 1:14 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

A funny thing happened after the Red Sox traded Manny Ramirez: they started to win. Since Jason Bay came over on August 1st, the Sox have gone 20-9. Offense has been the key factor here: our pitching has allowed 124 runs (for a 4.18 ERA), but has received 191 runs in support. That's an average of 6.59 runs per game.

The Sox run of success is not a result of adding Bay or subtracting Manny, but of an overall offensive rejuvenation. The entire team is batting .305 / .390 / .481 over 1209 plate appearances, with 114 extra base hits (35 HR). That's wicked good. Some of the guys we love to hate deserve serious props.

Coco Crisp. Jason Varitek. Jacoby Ellsbury. Their names alone will cause many Sox fans to shudder in terror, as the images of unforgivable strike outs, anti-clutch double plays, and botched Hit and Run plays dance through their minds. But look at their numbers over the past 29 games:

Crisp: .324 / .377 / .382, 78 PA, 1 HR
Varitek: .272 / .372 / .457, 94 PA, 4 HR
Ells: .282 / .339 / .388, 112 PA, 2 HR, 9 SB to 1 CS

Some of those numbers might not look too impressive, but you need to consider context. In June and July, Ellsbury was barely getting on at all; he put up on-base percentages of .265 and .277, respectively, in those months. Coco had a .167 / .300 / .238 line in July. Varitek was basically 0 for June (.380 OPS!), and only marginally better in July (.293 OBP). So to get improved production out of these guys is a real step forward.

To this hitting renaissance we can add the solid production from Jason Bay, an MVP-worthy August from Dustin Pedroia (1.060 OPS!!?), Mark Kotsay's awesomeness (5 doubles in 20 AB), and Papi's return to form (1.064 OPS over the last 23 games). Unsurprisingly, for the last couple weeks, the Red Sox offense has looked a lot like this:

Red and unstoppable, like Boston's hitting. via media.ebaumsworld.com

To be sure, the Sox have been aided by the opposing pitching staffs. In particular the Orioles, Royals, and Rangers have padded our stats. But good teams need to beat up on bad pitchers, as even a bad major league pitcher can sometimes shut us down.

All this is to say, my fellow Sox fans, the state of our momentum is strong. It is running free and unimpeded, not held back by teen pregnancy, nor held in a VC prison, nor waiting in an overcrowded FEMA center for the go-ahead to return home. And much of the credit for this renewed momentum is due to the trio of Ellsbury, Crisp and Varitek.

Be sure to leave your thoughts (and vehement disagreements) in the comments below. Also, I'll post a game thread shortly, if Randy or Allen haven't already scheduled one.

Bonus: THT's Josh Kalk has an interesting piece on Josh Beckett's year, and his mechanics. Kalk believes that injury played a role in Beckett's poor performances.

Extra bonus tangent: JuggerNotPC.

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1 – Re the Sox playing better since Manny’s departure: think Nomar. Both guys, particularly Nomar, were poison in the dugout. I never did subscribe to the “Manny Being Manny” nonsense but make no mistake: Bay is nowhere near him as a hitter or even a threat. Still…..I wasn’t sorry to see Ramirez leave. I hope the Sox have learned a lesson regarding prima donnas.

2 – I’m still very concerned about Beckett and have thought he’s been hurt to some degree all season. It’s a huge concern. Whatever happens this fall, I just hope Josh is 100 percent for next year. With his health status, I wouldn’t mind seeing Boston acquire another top-flight FA starter.

by ccthemovieman on Sep 4, 2008 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well said on both points!

Manny being Manny was just an excuse to overlook a lack of team spirit and concern, which ALWAYS comes back as a negative eventually!

by NG on Sep 4, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Manny would had gotten back to being a terror in the batting box..

This is a guy who was put on waiver in 2003-2004, and went ahead in 2004 and had a close to MVP year, and World Series MVP, who wanted to be traded in 2005, etc. I think he is going through a two week pout, and he would had straightened out.

That said, I still don’t like the trade. Bay has been done everything beyond a call of duty. I am sorry to see Hansen falling apart at Pittsburgh, but it seems trading Hansen was as important as trading Manny.

The main reason I am against the trade was Manny is a hall of famer, I doubted he would had returned to Boston next year, and this “Manny being Manny” episode this year was the most serious, but he has showed in LA what a dangerous hitter he is to pitchers. I thought he would had calmed down, and know that he needed to perform, if he wanted to get a better contract with the Mets or the Yankees next year.

I guess I wish the Dodgers took Manny’s salary or put 3 players in the trade to Pittsburgh than 2f. However I think Theo did the best he could in a bad situation, and got a pretty good player in returned, who doesn’t push traveling secretary to the ground.

by superferret on Sep 5, 2008 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure

1- I think the favorable schedule has more to do with the Sox’ second-half success than clubhouse chemistry. One could make an argument that Lowell going on the DL helped the team more than the removal of Manny. Mikey was gutting it out through injuries, but he was killing the team offensively.

I also don’t think Manny’s departure is the reason Alex Cora has hit .308 AVG/.403 OBP since the ASB. Both Coco and Kotsay have been more productive than Drew since the ASB:

Coco .299/.375/.371 w/ 2 HR 13 RBI (17 R) in 97 AB
Kotsay .333/.385/.625 w/ 7 RBI in 24 AB
Drew .209/.395/.360 w/ 2 HR 9 RBI (15 R) in 86 AB

I know Drew has a slightly higher OPS than Coco in the second-half. But that’s the result of 26 BB (he only has 15 H). Coco/Kotsay have been more productive than Drew, just as Lowrie/Cora have been much more productive than Lowell was while playing hurt. That, coupled with Papi’s return, an easier schedule, and better results from the pen, probably has more to do with Boston’s strong second half than the Manny trade.

2- I’m worried about Beckett too. But I don’t see the Sox throwing tons of money and years at CC Sabathia. There is no other top flight pitcher out there. Sheets and/or Burnett are huge injury risks. I think the FO will wait and see on Beckett, and make whatever moves they have to make during next season.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 4, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good points.

Alex Cora’s been hitting fairly well all season. That said, his numbers are inflated by a lot of HBPs, which I don’t think is really sustainable for him (he’s not like Giambi or Youk in his plate coverage). He’s got 7 HBP in 146 PA; Youk has 11 in 538 PA. As far as I’m concerned, the more playing time Cora gets, the more likely he is to regress to his mean production, which is pretty bad.

I agree that other factors have likely contributed more to the second half success. Schedule is a possibility, as is Ortiz’s return (although he’s not lighting the world afire with his bat). I’m not sure about the pen’s role in our success – as I posted above, the overall offensive numbers (>6.5 runs per game) are the key to our win streak, rather than shut down pitching (4.18 ERA).

Beckett is a definite concern. I’m with you on the FO not showering Sabathia with cash; their MO is to build from within and go after value pitchers. Also Sabathia is an injury risk, given his enormous number of innings pitched since his debut. I can see them going for Burnett or Sheets if they don’t get too expensive.

by 0157H7 on Sep 4, 2008 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen since the ASB

Here are the overall numbers of the Sox’ pen in the second half:

Papelbon – (18.1 IP) 0.00 ERA 0.60 WHIP
Masterson – (23.2 IP) 2.28 ERA 1.14 WHIP
Delcarmen – (20.1 IP) 2.66 ERA 1.08 WHIP
Timlin – (16 IP) 2.81 ERA 1.19 WHIP
Okajima – (15.2 IP) 2.87 ERA 0.83 WHIP
Lopez – (15.1 IP) 4.11 ERA 1.04 WHIP

Those are pretty strong numbers by the pitchers who get the bulk of the work (and will likely be on the post-season roster). Overall, this group has a 2.39 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 109.1 IP.

While weak opposition may have something to do with the pen’s success, the Sox have played some over-.500 teams lately.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 4, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I stand corrected.

Good numbers from the pen. The starting rotation’s, outside of Lester, Byrd and Dice-K, has been worse than the pen. Since the ASB, Wakefield’s ERA is 4.29 (3.60 before), Beckett’s is 5.54, Buchholz’s is 8.48.

by 0157H7 on Sep 5, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets

Ben Sheets is also an NL pitcher. No matter how talented he appears, he will not put up the same numbers in the AL. Figure that into the math. I think Sabathia is a better bet than Sheets, but I can’t see the Red Sox blowing other, more desperate teams out of the water. I’d be shocked if Sabathia doesn’t become a Yankee if he hits free agency. The Brewers may surprise us and not let him get there, though.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Sep 5, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree

I am not – and never have been – a fan of Manny Ramirez, the person, but am not one of those fans who think the team is improved without him – no, our lineup is definitely weaker. But, I think he became such a distraction that he was becoming a negative influence overall on the team.

I will not be happy to see him or C.C. Sabathia in Yankee pinstripes, which is another reason I wouldn’t mind having another ace on the staff. Of course, who wouldn’t??!!! As you say, what the Sox do might depend on Beckett’s health.

Anyway, right now I will thrilled to see Boston in the playoffs after all the adversity it has been through this year. To be honest, I had my doubts. I’m not “counting my chickens” yet, but feeling better than I did a week ago.

By the way, don’t you love this Kotsay? I’d like to see more pictures of his wife, too!!

by ccthemovieman on Sep 4, 2008 9:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I miss Manny's swing

That man has a beautiful swing. He’s a liability in the field and a distraction in the clubhouse, but there are few at-bats that I’d care to see more than Manny’s.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Sep 5, 2008 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe you'd like to see these AB more:

Williams, Ted
Gwynn, Tony
Ruth, George Herman
Jackson, Bo
Griffey, Ken Jr.
Rose, Pete
DESTROYAH, The

Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you./Education is the best defense against the media./The Lord's Prayer=66 words, the Gettysburg Address=286words, the Declaration of Independence=1,322 words, government regulations on the sale of cabbage=26,911 words

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 5, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs