Rays give Francona and Second-Place Red Sox Plenty to Second-Guess.

by Allen Chace on Sep 16, 2008 10:50 PM EDT in Game Stories Comment 13 comments

Beckett was exceptional, throwing 8 innings of 1-run ball in enemy territory. The Sox offense was simply unable to back him up properly.

So, a big fat shout-out to Josh Beckett, who was every bit of himself for 8 innings this evening. He left with the game tied, having engaged in an excellent pitching duel vs. Andy Sonnanstine and co. A Carlos Pena solo HR is the only blemish on an excellent night tonight from Becks.

Offense. Boo. Boo. Boo. All right. Credit where credit is due. Andy Sonnanstine is the exact kind of pitcher the Sox generally struggle against, and his command of the strike zone and fearlessness in attacking the zone were pivotal in his success tonight. However, the Sox continually alternated between being aggressive and patient/passive at the plate tonight, and there never seemed to be a consistent game plan. Despite three decent PAs, I am going to single out Jed Lowrie a little bit. His last PA against Dan Wheeler was abysmal, one of maybe a handful of PAs he's had in sort of "crunch time" situations in which he has looked like a rookie. He's not the only one, however, who should wish for their own personal time machine.

Second-guessing: Justin Masterson over Manny Delcarmen or Jonathan Papelbon: If you're going to not use Paps, then entering a tie game with your 3rd or 4th most talented reliever rather than your second-most talented reliever doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. I know there are many who have lost faith in MDC this season, but two facts are worthy of consideration: He truly is the second most talented RP in our bullpen; and his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is actually down a half-run from last season (3.85 v. 3.32). MDC has had some meltdowns in games that have seemed more important than "just one game" this season, but the fact is that he's pitching better than last season and has been unlucky w/r/t BIP v. last season. He also hadn't thrown since Friday.

Second-guessing: Leaving Mike Lowell in: Yes, he got the single and is a valuable safety net for Becks who seems partial to influencing his GBs to the third baseman. However, he was clearly in a lot of pain after making the play vs. Jason Bartlett, and you wonder whether giving him the rest of the night off tonight could've made him better available to play tomorrow. As it is, we have to assume that Bailey or Carter will probably start at 1B tomorrow (Sean Casey?) with Youks at 3B, leaving our offense looking weak with Cash and a rookie in. I suppose Cora at SS and Lowrie at 3B is also an option, but Cora doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence either, along with Kotsay and Ells kind of dragging down the OF lately.

Second-guessing: The timing of Evelyn Jane Bay: Just kidding. Amidst a poor game for the Sox, we're brought news of this wonderful miracle in the life of our new LF, Jason Bay and his wife and family. Congratulations to Jason and all the Bays.

...

Sox get a chance to tie the division back up tomorrow, with Tim Wakefield against short-rest Garza. I'll be working, hold it down for me.

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MDC & the setup spot

MDC “pitching better than last season?”

No, that’s simply not factual.. He definitely had a better year last year, and the same can be said for ALL the relievers, unfortunately. The sad fact is that we have nobody who is a consistent and reliable setup guy for Pap (who, himself is down from last year’s great numbers). Obviously, Tito and the FO have lost confidence in Oki and MDC. Why else would Masterston be the guy last night?

I agree with you that it seems to be the “unwritten law” that your closer only comes in when he can get a save, but I disagree with that. You use your best when you need your best. Most of the time managers save their ace and the guy never gets in because a lesser guy just blew the game! Most managers are really set in their ways.

I know it’s a little late in the season to say this, but the Sox better figure this (who is best in the setup situation) out pretty fast if they want to get anywhere in the post season, or you’ll see more results like you saw last night. At this point, I would take my chances with MDC, too. The only different thing I would do is let my starter stay in the game longer, as Tito has done with Lester. Screw the damn pitch count. If you’re starter still looks strong and their aren’t hitting in the eighth, keep him in! Yeah, I know…..Beckett is still coming back but that’s enogh – let him do his thing. He can go a strong nine now.

Not only in the postseason, but it will interesting to see who the FO likes as their 7th and 8th-inning pitchers next season.

by ccthemovieman on Sep 17, 2008 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Allen is right about MDC

While I agree that Tito seems to have lost confidence in Oki, there is no evidence that he has lost confidence in MDC. Delcarmen is 5th in the AL in appearances with 68. He has been used more than any other Sox reliever in the second half. It seems MDC likes the work, because he has responded well: 2.25 ERA 0.89 WHIP since the ASB.

Here’s a comparison of MDC in the second half this year and last year:

2007: 34G/33.1 IP 23 H 13 BB 33 K – 2.16 ERA 1.08 WHIP 8.91 K/9 (4 HR)
2008: 25G/28 IP 16 H 9 BB 27 K – 2.25 ERA 0.89 WHIP 8.68 K/9 (2 HR)

MDC has been used for more than an inning a few times, a sign that Tito has confidence in him. The second half ERA from both years is close, as is the K-rate. But MDC is walking far fewer hitters this year, and has cut his HR.

Overall, the bullpen has been very good since the ASB. Here are the second half stats of the five main relievers (the ones likely to be on a post-season roster – i.e. not Timlin, Smith, or Pauley):

Papelbon: 23.1 IP 1.54 ERA 0.86 WHIP 8.10 K/9 0.00 BB/9 (1 HR)
Delcarmen: 28 IP 2.25 ERA 0.89 WHIP 8.68 K/9 2.89 BB/9 (2 HR)
Masterson: 28 IP 2.25 ERA 1.21 WHIP 7.71 K/9 3.54 K/9 (1 HR)
Okajima: 18 IP 3.00 ERA 1.00 WHIP 7.50 K/9 3.50 BB/9 (1 HR)
Lopez: 20.1 IP 3.10 ERA 1.03 WHIP 6.20 K/9 2.66 BB/9 (1 HR)
Totals: 117.2 IP 2.37 ERA 1.00 WHIP 7.73 K/9 2.52 BB/9 (6 HR)

Those are pretty good numbers. A few things are striking, though. Oki has thrown the fewest innings. It seems he will be used more as a match-up lefty. Left-handed hitters are hitting .198 AVG/.252 OBP/.333 SLG against him. (Those who think Oki has been awful this year should remember that he was worse in the second half of last year: 4.56 ERA 1.21 WHIP 5 HR. Only his K-rate was better: 9.12 K/9).

Another thing to note is Masterson’s walk rate, the worst in the pen. And Paps has thrown almost as many innings already (23.1) as he did the entire second half of last year (25.2).

While I probably would have thrown MDC in the 9th last night or gone with J-Lo (because Pena and Floyd are lefties, and Navarro is better hitting from the left side), I’m not really going to second guess Tito on this one. Masterson has been good and it is important to find out how young pitchers will react in big games, especially as it looks like the Sox are in the playoffs.

I also think Tito wanted to use Masterson for 2 innings last night. Tampa had already burned Balfour, Howell, and Wheeler. If the game went to extra innings, the Sox would have been in very good shape pitching-wise, as they would be matching up their best relievers against the 4th option in the rays’ pen. It didn’t make sense to throw Paps in a tie game on the road, unless you want to use him for 2 innings. I think Tito wants to be careful with Papelbon’s innings. Tito’s strategy was sound. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 17, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like the decision to try Masterson

i think Francona is not one of the mangers who uses his CL only when they can get a save.

and that he gve Masterson a first image of what real pressure looks and feels is absolutely the right hting. and failure belongs to sports, and i accept that.

tough loss, ok, but it was worth the try because:

Paps is overused already and i would be happy when he gets ok for the playoffs again.
Oki is not the set-up guy he was last year (but i have to say i did not see him much this year).
Masterson could be a 7th or even 8th inning guy from his stuff right now if he gets it together in the right moments…and so Terry gave it a shot to see, because just from talking you do not see nothing.

and i hope that Terry gives him another chance before the season is over, because he could be a good addition for a playoff bullpen.

u say it was mismanagement (to put masterson up)?
i say it was great management and a failure by the player (maybe plus a good effort by the other teams players involved), with which i do not have a problem with.

by OilCanBoyd on Sep 17, 2008 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Masterston/Lowell

when he was a starter best, He did just fine. But, the powers-that-be, whomever that is, decided to change his role to reliever. I have to trust in their judgment. I’m sure a big part of that change was made because Oki and DMC were not doing the job. I hope last night’s loss didn’t diminish Justin’s confidence because, like you, I still like him and hope he’s our guy. I agree: let’s give him another tough situation and see what he’s made of. Whether it’s he or Manny D., their walk ratio has to get better. I think we all would agree on that.

On another subject…… what would you do with Lowell? Do you risk hurting him worse putting him out there? He says rest won’t make a difference; his hip is screwed up and two cortisone shots haven’t done anything to help. Yet, if his range and ability to run bases is diminished, it hurts the team. …and he’s obviously in more pain now than he was before. Yet, he’s a clutch performer you want out there. He keeps us alive with a base hit in the ninth inning last night. Sounds like a tough decision for Tito. What say you?

by ccthemovieman on Sep 17, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe the move to the pen...

is due to his arm action, but who knows.

i not sure what to do with Lowell.
i would rest him as much as possible if this would help. but when it does not at all what can you do?

by OilCanBoyd on Sep 17, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Masterson

I thought Masterson’s pitches looked pretty good, but missed a few pitches. The pitch that “hit” Ruggione (sp?) got away from him. Close call, there. Barrett blooped him with a weak-ass hit. He froze Carlos Pena on a pitch inside, but was a little too cautious and missed the zone.

Things could have very easily gone Masterson’s way that game, but it was not to be. Keep your head up, Kid.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Sep 17, 2008 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ug. That first sentence was revised without re-reading it.

“I thought Masterson looked pretty good, but missed on a few pitches.”

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Sep 17, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs