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Que Sera, Sera

Let me tell you a story. There once was a pitcher with enormous talent. In the minor leagues, he struck out many batters (9.18 K / 9IP), but he was never truly dominant (4.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). After three years in the system, in which he never topped A-ball, he was left unprotected by his club. Another team, sensing opportunity, quickly snapped him up in the Rule 5 draft, and put him on the major league roster.

Our pitcher's major league's dreams were suddenly coming true. However, his rookie season was nightmarish. In five starts he went 0-3 with a 9.82 ERA, 13 BBs to 13 Ks; he never made it through the 6th inning, and only amassed 22 innings. As a reliever he was better, but not by much. In 64 relief innings, mostly mop-up duty, he had a 5.34 ERA, with 41 BBs to 51 Ks, and 8 HR. But despite his rookie year 6.49 ERA and 1.81 WHIP (!),  the organization stuck with him.

The following year, our pitcher logged only 43.2 innings at the major league level, and he was better, but hardly dominant (4.74 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). In his third season with the club, he was sent down to the minors for two months to perfect his stuff. After returning, everything clicked for him, and he went on to become one of the best pitchers in recent memory.

No two baseball players are alike, but the story of Johan Santana strikes me as worth relating in the wake of Clay Buchholz's demotion. Our society, and in particular the internet, is all about instant gratification, and waiting makes us not only impatient but irate. But baseball is a slow, and sometimes cruel, sport. It took about six years for Santana to unlock his potential, including three seasons at the major league level. Halfway through the Astros gave up on him, letting him go in the Rule 5 draft.

Good players can take time to develop, and watching the process can be painful. The rookie seasons of Johan Santana and Clay Bucholz are quite similar, in many ways:
Santana, 00: 86 IP, 6.49 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 51 K, 44 BB, 11 HR.
Buchholz, 08: 76 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.763 WHIP, 72 K, 41 BB, 11 HR.

Buchholz has major league-quality pitches, particularly his curve and change, and his fastball can look good as well. While many great prospects have failed, I am confident that he will figure it out, although it may take a while. I trust our Front Office has the patience to let him develop, and that he will find success in a Red Sox uniform. I believe in Clay Buchholz.

The night is darkest just before the dawn, and... I don't want to get sued, so I won't finish that. Some people, on this board and others, have started talking about trading Buchholz, saying that he won't make it in the big leagues. The only reply to that line of thought is to look at the picture below, and ask yourself, how good would you feel watching him tear through our lineup in an A's or O's uniform.

Clay1_medium

"Armed and dangerous" via blog.masslive.com

In my mind, Buchholz is going to be a great major league pitcher; it's just a matter of time. Sending him down now is fine, but the team needs to stick with him for as long as it can. Theo and company have shown patience with Jon Lester (although not with Cla Meredith), and I expect they will do so again with Clay. I hope Red Sox Nation can match this patience.

Poll
Which "The Dark Knight" quote best describes Clay Buchholz?
"You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain." (Clay's story won't have a happy ending - he's not cut out for MLB.)
6 votes
"I'm an agent of chaos." (Clay will improve, but he's no more than a 3rd or 4th starter.
16 votes
"The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming." (Clay will rebound next season and become a future #1 or #2.)
62 votes
"WHYYY SO SERIOUS?" (Clay's struggles aren't a big deal. The team is good with or without him.)
15 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments

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Comments

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Another great FanPost

Sadly, I can imagine him in an Athletics uniform. That won’t happen, though. He will stick with us for at least 5 more years.

He does have great stuff, but he was like Jon Lester: He nibbles. Jon corrected that, and take a look at him now. Buch will be like that in 2009, and if he, Lester, and Beckett (who always does well on odd-numbered years) are all having good years, we are almost guaranteed a playoff spot.

He who hesitates is tagged out between first and second base.

by BoSox415 on Aug 22, 2008 10:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

I like how you expressed yourself and hope that your optimism regarding Buchholz comes true.

I’ve never advocated trading him. Too early for that. What upset me was the Boston brain trust going too long with him this season, costing us some valuable wins, which we may dearly need by Oct. 1.

Clearly, Buchholz needs to mature. As you say, it may be two years – not next year – until we really know what we have with him.

At this point, I’m really, really hoping Boston opens their checkbook once again and acquires a quality starter in the offesason: a Sabbathia,. A.J. Burnett , Ryan Dempster or whoever – somebody who can step in effectively because our staff went from deep-to-thin this season. The pitiful bullpen cost us Masterson in the starting role but maybe they’ll switch him back. What do you hear?

Anyway, I share your high hopes on Clay and wish him the best. Maybe he’ll even learn to take off half of his jewelry!

by ccthemovieman on Aug 22, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on getting a good starter.

I can’t see Sabathia going to the Sox – he’s just too expensive, and the Yankees want / need him more than we do. Burnett and Sheets seem like better options, although they’re both injury risks. Dempster is interesting – he’s hardly a proven starter, but he’d probably be expensive nevertheless. One issue with him is that some teams might seek him as a closer. Another thought is Yu Darvish, though the 22-year-old Japanese ace could prove way more expensive than Daisuke.

by 0157H7 on Aug 22, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I declare this poll the best poll in Over The Monster history…

by Randy Booth on Aug 22, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed and I declare my poll the worst...

bad time to ask it since we are winning a lot right now…

Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 22, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Buchholz needs his confidence back...

  What I saw with his pitching against the White Sox, was lack of confidence that he tried to alter his mechanics which made things worse… He had good fundamentals, and the problem relying on breaking balls is that a good hitter will know when the break will occurred. David Wells had some of the same problem of either being unhittable like in 98 to being pounded.

I think Buchholz’s curve is fun to watch, given its break, but it has to be much more subtle. If they are sending him back to Portland instead of Pawtucket, to work on his mechanics, and see if he can come back as a better pitcher, if he goes from Portland to Pawtucket, then there is some hope the rebuilding plan is working…

by superferret on Aug 22, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I watched the Dark Knight the other day

And I thought it was a very overrated movie. If Steven Seagal had done Batman, the movie would not last 10 minutes, because all the villains would be dead already. :)

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Aug 22, 2008 1:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If Chuck Norris had played the Joker:

The movie would’ve been over by the time the logo-through-smoke effect ended

Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 22, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No on Burnett and Dempster

it may be a personal thing, i just dont think burnett is worth the money. i understand baseball is inherintly a game of highs and lows but i think his are too high and too low to invest so much money. his injury history bothers me as well.

i do not view dempster as a guy who is suddenly “figuring it out” at age 31. prior to this season he’s only had 1 season, in 2000, where he threw more than 100 IP that was worth a shit. these season outstanding he’s essentially been garbage. (which opens up a whole new discussion.. how does a guy like that get this far?)

by EWS1532 on Aug 22, 2008 3:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

More quotes

“Because some men aren’t looking for anything logical, like money. They can’t be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.” – Theo Epstein, on Eric Gagne.

“C’mon! Hit me, HIT MEh!” – Kevin Youkilis, hanging out over the plate.
Source.

by 0157H7 on Aug 22, 2008 4:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One More:

Let’s turn the clocks back. A year ago, these batters wouldn’t dare hit any of your pitches. I mean, what happened? Did your – did your balls drop off? Hmm? -Tito talking to Oki

Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 22, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Double meaning to that last part... If ya know what I mean...

Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Aug 22, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Go to Baseball Reference

and take a look at Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine’s early work.

Obviously, past failure is no guarantee of future success, but even future Hall of Famers sometimes struggle as kids in their early 20s.

Roto Think Tank

by MikeGianella on Aug 25, 2008 8:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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