Baseball's Top 50??

by MatthewRI on Aug 21, 2008 2:47 PM EDT

Over at Sports Illustrated, Nate Silver has his stats-based "Top 50" baseball players to build a team around based on his PECOTA projection system, which produces seven-year projections for each player based on his historical comparable (Note: Nate's regression analyses have also made him a gamer in the political world as well). Today, he released players #50 to #26 and only one BoSox made the list thus far:

No. 40. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox, Age 25 (--)

For years, PECOTA had been touting Pedroia, while scouts would not take him seriously. When Pedroia started out his major league career hitting .182 in April 2007, I thought I could see exactly what those scouts were seeing -- with his short stature and his uppercut swing, he looked like a Little Leaguer trying to hit major league pitching. I promptly traded him in my roto league. For Yuniesky Betancourt.

I should have kept the faith. And let's give the Red Sox credit for sticking with the gameplan. In a lot of organizations, like the Cubs or the Dodgers, Pedroia would have been banished to Triple-A, gotten frustrated, and wound up working at a car dealership.

Tomorrow, they are going to release players #25 through #1.

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And here's #25 thru #1

LInk here

by MatthewRI on Aug 22, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions

The only Sox are

Pedroia (#42), Beckett (#22), and Clay Buchholz as an honorable mention.

I don’t know about the list. It’s for fantasy baseball, so defense / fielding isn’t considered. Also, guys like Justin Upton (#25) get way overrated because of their youth. This is the “Melky Cabrera Factor” at work. Because Melky was in his early 20s, plenty of people (mostly Yankee fans) argued that he was going to grow into a great power hitter. He’s spent three seasons in the majors, and his much vaunted potential remains unseen.

To rate Justin Upton above his brother BJ (#46), who is having a much better season (and playing a more valuable position), is lunacy to me.

by 0157H7 on Aug 22, 2008 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

Don't look at #1

Just don’t.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Aug 22, 2008 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

I was piss-scared that it was going to be Joba.

Needless to say, I did not take your advice.

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Aug 23, 2008 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions

That would have indeed been worse.

Sorry for the fright.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Aug 23, 2008 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I need to take advice more often.

If Beckett and Lowell help us win at least two more WS, the trade balances out. But if [you should know the name] starts striking out less and making consistent throws, that trade may be one of the saddest in Sox history.

Don't question my choice of teams, or I will have to go all troll on you.

by bdalebs on Aug 23, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

this is NOT a fantasy baseball list

that’s just what Silver called the exercise, because, well, it’s a fantasy. the players are rated by REAL baseball value over the next six years.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 22, 2008 8:58 PM EDT reply actions

They are rated by projected baseball value, not REAL value (that would be retrospective), which is why Silver fetishizes age. Of course, given the absence of specific references to PECOTA projection (in the article), this list could have just as easily been derived subjectively from Nate Silver’s head. Also, it certainly seems like a fantasy baseball list, given the almost complete absence of defense in player ratings. Only Ryan Braun gets a fielding runs mention, and most other mentions are of someone’s “Gold-Glove caliber defense.” Golden Gloves are not a viable way of rating anyone’s defense.

by 0157H7 on Aug 23, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

couple things

i don’t think he fetishizes age, he’s just more aware of it than most — this is is by total value over SIX years. being old and having little value for the last two years is just as damaging as being young and having litle value over the first two years.

i totalyl agree with you on the defense thing, though. MAYBE he used FRAA, although I’m sure he’s aware what a crap statistic that is.

the other thing to consider is that this is a CNNSI article, and there are certain thing you don’t discuss on mainstream websites.

overall, it’s a pretty good list, but i would change a bunch of things around.

my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance

by Sky Kalkman on Aug 25, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Lester

Where is Lester on this list? He’s only 24 and is having a breakout season. I’m not saying that he should in the 15-20 range like Kazmir, Hamels, and Lincecum. But he should at least get an honorable mention.

by Gnick on Aug 23, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply actions