Dice-Cy?

Dice-K: Enigmatic and Unhittable via farm1.static.flickr.com
With his win last night over the Texas Rangers, Daisuke Matsuzaka is now 14-2. Like many stats, wins don't tell you the full story, but they do matter to some people. In particular, the Baseball Writers Association of America consider wins an important qualification for the Cy Young award (along with Ks, innings, and ERA).
By my count, Daisuke has 8 potential starts left before the season ends. Matsuzaka might be the alpha and the omega of the 2008 season, starting both the first and last games. If he wins at least 6 of those 8, he'll have 20 victories, which will put him on the BWAA's radar.
The Cy Young is a much more meritorious award than the Golden Gloves, but it is still a meaningless award. Nevertheless, I like to see Boston players win such honorifics and have their achievements recognized. Matsuzaka's main competitor in this race is Cliff Lee, the Cleveland lefty having a career season; he leads the league in wins at 16-2, and ERA at 2.45. Other potentials include Mike Mussina (15-7, 3.30 ERA) and Joe Saunders (14-5, 3.07).
Daisuke missed starts to injury, so his innings and strikeout totals are low. However, he has some good peripherals: a 7.62 K / 9 innings ratio (0.5 higher than Lee's), and a 0.59 HR / 9 IP ratio. Walks are a real problem: Daisuke's 5.33 BB / 9 IP ratio is pretty bad. Incredibly, he's been able to minimize the damage with men on base.
By one measure, Daisuke's season is just like the last one. His fielding independent percentage is 4.24, not far off from 07's 4.35, though his ERA is much better. Line drive and groundball percentages are in line with last season, though he's suppressing homers much more effectively (25 in 07, 8 in 08).
So should Daisuke be in the Cy Young discussions? Are you pleased with his season? Is his current performance sustainable, or will he start allowing more hits with RISP? Speak your mind below in the comments, and answer the poll.
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In his favor, Dice-K is among the league leaders in ERA, wins, and winning percentage. But in my book these positives don’t outweigh the numerous negatives enough to put him in the Cy Young discussion.
His lack of innings isn’t just due to injury — he’s only pitched into the seventh 6 times. Those walks you mention drive up his pitch count, forcing him to leave games earlier. He averages under six innings per start (5.79). The walks also leave Dice-K with a mediocre WHIP of 1.34. In fact, his walks aren’t just bad, they’re horrid — he’s NEXT TO LAST in walks issued, with one fewer than Cabrera (who has needed five more starts and 42 more innings to achieve his total). Wins or not, and a solid ERA or not, those are numbers that tell me he’s not a legitimate candidate for a Cy Young. I’d argue that he’s not even #1 on his team — Lester has been a better pitcher this year.
Cliff Lee is an easy choice at this point, leading the league in wins (despite playing for a losing club) and ERA, and third in WHIP. He also is in the top 10 in innings pitched (he’s pitched exactly 40 innings more than Dice-K, and done so in only two more starts (7.03 IP/start)).
And if he should falter, at the moment I’d pick Halladay despite his nine losses (which are mostly due to his lousy run support). He has 1 less win than Dice-K, but he’s #1 in innings pitched, #2 in the league in WHIP, and #3 in ERA (right ahead of Dice-K) and Ks.
I’d pick Saunders third.
by argo0 on Aug 15, 2008 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
> 6 IPs per start is huge, in my book.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Aug 15, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saunder's peripherals are no better than last year when he had a league-average ERA
Halladay and Lee are the two clear frontrunners for the award.
Matsuzaka’s 103/72 K/BB ratio isn’t special, although he’s been awesomely stingy with the homeruns. Fielding-independent stats don’t like his 2008 season too much (4.20 FIP and 4.37 tRA), and they even give him full credit for the 6.6% HR/FB rate (most pitchers have true skills within a few points of 11%).
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 16, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that you can look at peripherals up to a point
I know he has a low FIP, and a crappy K/BB, but how can a pitcher stay this lucky for a whole season? I don’t think that he should be a Cy Young candidate, but he is still pitching extremely well this year. He isn’t allowing many runs, which really is the goal of a pitcher.
by aspeninthewindow on Aug 16, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you know the counter-argument for wins? it's pretty much the same for a flukily low ERA
as for the “all year” argument, it’s only 120 IP, not 200 IP. his batted ball data (see tRA at statcorner.com) show’s he’s been lucky to the extent of 13 extra outs on batted balls this year. that’s 13 plays, or 1 per 9 innings. not so crazy to be that lucky, right?
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 16, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dice-K's composite ERA is 3.38
So part of his luck is int he way his pitching events have interacted (HRs before/after walks, etc).
Going from a 3.38 ERA to a 4.25 FIP is about 8 runs over 120 innings. Definitely easily attributable to luck.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 16, 2008 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the walks are going to level out with Dice-K down the road. He should cut those down and gain a few strikeouts, meaning he’ll be a better fit for the Cy toward the end of the year.
by Randy Booth on Aug 15, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It would be pretty weird
to have a guy win the Cy Young who didn’t get enough votes to even be named to his league’s all-star roster.
I like the guy but he’s not as good as his record and people know this. One thing often overlooked: he’s had tremendous offensive support this year or he wouldn’t be 14-2. Let’s hope he keeps winning, regardless.
Here’s an interesting stat: the last 12 times Dice-K has loaded the bases, he’s gotten out of it with no runs – incredible (but stressful on everyone!!!!!)
by ccthemovieman on Aug 15, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He was also hurt during that stretch…
by Randy Booth on Aug 15, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there an award for luckiest pitcher of the year?
Because Matsuzaka will win it, hands down. He has an insanely low BABIP of .257 and a very high LOB% of 81.6%. He’s been very, very lucky, as indicated by his 2.74 ERA despite a 4.13 FIP.
I have a feeling he’s due for some serious regression to the mean next season.
by Tippecanoe on Aug 15, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Luck does not last this long
Maybe Dice-K is different. :)
It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.
by MerryGoByeBye on Aug 15, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on that
He’s definitely different.
One positive thought is that he knows he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, so he nibbles and nibbles but really bears down when he has to, and usually gets out of trouble. Thus, he might be better than he appears. I also think he’s smart enough to know that hitters can’t dig in on him because they know he could throw it anyway, including at them! He’s “effectively wild,” as some put it.
I would just like to see him go 7-8 innings, as he did the other night, rather than 5-6. I can’t watch him; he makes me a nervous wreck, but I’m glad we have him!
by ccthemovieman on Aug 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am glad for Daisuke, but his IP will be a big detriment..
From what I have seen, I see the Cy Young award as a battle between Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Daisuke is winning, sometimes his pitches are great, sometimes he just throws junk that produces alot of walks that can kill a game, if it is against a good team like the Angels. I would say if Halladay is still pitching as he has done, doing complete games, I think he will win it, even though Lee is just as impressive.
by superferret on Aug 15, 2008 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not even close
When you walk more than five batters per nine innings pitched, average fewer than six innings pitched per start, only have a low ERA thanks to an abnormally low BABIP, had a stint on the DL, and have been your team’s third best pitcher at best, you’re not Cy Young material. Especially when Lee has a better record for a worse team, a better ERA even with a normal BABIP, fewer walks, fewer BB/IP, more IP, nearly the same K/IP, and have been healthy all year. Even the BWAA can’t mess up that comparison.
Where they could mess up is in giving heavy consideration to K-Rod. He’s going to finish high in the voting because he’s going to end up with 60+ saves, but that just means his team plays a lot of close games. The fact of the matter is that a league average closer could get 55-60 saves for the Orange County Angels this year.
by RSNexile on Aug 15, 2008 5:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's also why the Rays have so many walk-offs.
They aren’t good enough to get a big lead, so they can only win it by a slimmer margin.
He who hesitates is tagged out between first and second base.
by BoSox415 on Aug 15, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too wild
He’ll be considered, but he won’t win. If he cuts down on his walks, he’d almost be shoe-in.
He who hesitates is tagged out between first and second base.
by BoSox415 on Aug 15, 2008 8:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dice-k is struggling to be eligible in the top ERA list, (needs IP equal to team games played), i just dont see him winning a cy unless lee, duscheser(sp) and halliday ALL bomb, and dice-k dominates.
by spinz on Aug 15, 2008 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For me the critical question is, does he give the team a good chance to win? For most of the season, the answer has been yes. Daisuke has baffled, blustered, and lucksacked his way out of so many jams, and he’s consistently throwing about 5-6 innings while allowing 0-2 runs per start. Obviously you can’t build a team out of performances like this, since the pen would be heavily taxed, but one Dice-K has definitely been valuable. In his starts, we’re 17-4, which is amazing considering all the extra opportunities he’s given the pen to blow his games.
by 0157H7 on Aug 15, 2008 9:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dice K is the third best starting pitcher on this team.
Behind Beckett and Lester.
No way he’s even in the Cy Young discussion.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Aug 16, 2008 12:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
VORP ranks them:
Lester 40.7
Matsuzaka 37
Beckett 27.1
Wakefield 26.9
Beckett’s been great by several measures. His FIP is awesome, and he’s pitched pretty well, although it’s still a step back from last year.
by 0157H7 on Aug 16, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And hilariously
Okajima’s VORP is higher than Papelbon’s, 16.1 to 15. Go figure.
by 0157H7 on Aug 16, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
VORP gives credit for all the the luck DiceK's received, however
Try looking at FIP-RAR (it’s like VORP but with fielding-independ pitching instead of ERA).
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/08/total-value-estimates-through-12-august.html
Dice-K’s way down the list.
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 16, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t see Dice-K on any list at that link.
by 0157H7 on Aug 16, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
click the link to the spreadsheet
my blog // calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy // past results do not guarantee future performance
by Sky Kalkman on Aug 17, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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