I have been hearing alot of people under estimating Tek's contribution behind the plate. Are you guys kidding me????? Did you watch any of the 2006 season?? Did you miss when Tek had to get surgery and only played 103 games during the year?
In 2006 we had a 63-41 record before he got injured and ended with a 86-76 record. We didn't end up making the playoffs because of it. If you don't believe me yet, lets crunch some numbers.
In the 104 games before Varitek was on the DL the team ERA was 4.65. In the remaining 58 games the team ERA was 5.88. That is a difference of approximately 1.23 earned runs per game. Lets say there would be a similar change if it were to happen this year (even though I think it would be worse considering the age of our pitching staff).
Lets look at Tek's offensive contribution. Varitek currently has 19 RC over 94 games. Lets say we managed to get Joe Mauer's offensive contribution out of whoever replaced Tek (which won't happen). Joe Mauer has 51 RC over 91 games. For those keeping track that is .202 runs per game for Tek and .56 runs per game from Mauer.
As of right now, our team played 94 games has scored 478 runs and allowed 354 runs. Lets say for ease of calculation our team stays at this consistency for the rest of the year. Now if we do what everyone is suggesting we do and get rid of Tek for a replacement. Let's see how the rest of the year would pan out?
There are 68 games left in the season. With Varitek we would score 346 runs and allow 256 runs. With Joe Mauer we would score 370 runs and allow 340 runs. If we use the Pythagorean expectation theorem invented by Bill James. Our Win% with Tek would be .646 and our Win% with Mauer would be .542.
Projected to an end of year record of…..