Proof in Varitek with Numbers

by drabidea on Jul 9, 2008 7:39 PM EDT

I have been hearing alot of people under estimating Tek's contribution behind the plate. Are you guys kidding me????? Did you watch any of the 2006 season?? Did you miss when Tek had to get surgery and only played 103 games during the year?

In 2006 we had a 63-41 record before he got injured and ended with a 86-76 record. We didn't end up making the playoffs because of it. If you don't believe me yet, lets crunch some numbers.

In the 104 games before Varitek was on the DL the team ERA was 4.65. In the remaining 58 games the team ERA was 5.88. That is a difference of approximately 1.23 earned runs per game. Lets say there would be a similar change if it were to happen this year (even though I think it would be worse considering the age of our pitching staff).

Lets look at Tek's offensive contribution. Varitek currently has 19 RC over 94 games. Lets say we managed to get Joe Mauer's offensive contribution out of whoever replaced Tek (which won't happen). Joe Mauer has 51 RC over 91 games. For those keeping track that is .202 runs per game for Tek and .56 runs per game from Mauer.

As of right now, our team played 94 games has scored 478 runs and allowed 354 runs. Lets say for ease of calculation our team stays at this consistency for the rest of the year. Now if we do what everyone is suggesting we do and get rid of Tek for a replacement. Let's see how the rest of the year would pan out?

There are 68 games left in the season. With Varitek we would score 346 runs and allow 256 runs. With Joe Mauer we would score 370 runs and allow 340 runs. If we use the Pythagorean expectation theorem invented by Bill James. Our Win% with Tek would be .646 and our Win% with Mauer would be .542.

Projected to an end of year record of…..

Tek 99-63

Mauer 92-70

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

Sources

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/21/sports/baseball/21varitek.html

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2006.shtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=bos

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=rc&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2008&league_filter%5B%5D=1&pos_filter%5B%5D=2&Submit=Submit

by drabidea on Jul 9, 2008 7:43 PM EDT 0 recs

sources

drabidea, I am a big blogger, and I am often at a loss as to where to look for obscure stats (such as how a team did before and after an injury) both in football and baseball. If you could help me by giving me some tips, it would be much appreciated.

by GoPats#12 on Jul 9, 2008 11:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Please!!!

Are you people crazy? He is a very good catcher who has put up offensive numbers because he juiced…take a good look at his legs. They used to be tree trunks. Get a clue and stop being morons.

by Manny hater on Jul 14, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Oh ya douchebag

Look at those bean poles.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 14, 2008 10:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Quadzilla!

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jul 15, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

mostly searching

I find most of my obscure stats through google, but I do have some sites I go to frequently including,

http://www.fangraphs.com/

Good blogs, good graphs, and good user interface. enjoy

by drabidea on Jul 17, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Those numbers prove nothing..

by Charger567 on Jul 10, 2008 1:00 AM EDT 0 recs

Insane

To say that Varitek is worth 9 more wins at the end of the season than Mauer simply isn’t true. Mauer’s VORP has been 25th best out of all players this season, better than such notable plalyers as Derrek Lee, Manny, Braun, and Teixeira. Varitek’s VORP is -2.3. If we stuck your average minor leaguer in at Catcher we would be getting better production than from Varitek. Tim Lincecum’s VORP based solely on batting is higher than this. He ranks 17th among AL catchers, whereas Mauer is first by nearly double the next highest.

The inflated ERA in 2006 was most likely a combination of not having Varitek and a stretch of bad pitching. Its not like these guys don’t know what to do without Varitek. Beckett was a stud before Varitek, Wakefield never uses him, Dice-K dominated Japan without him, Lester and Buch developed without him, and Colon won a Cy Young without him.

by Gnick on Jul 10, 2008 1:43 AM EDT 0 recs

Your math is also shoddy

Where are you getting those Runs Allowed numbers? Don’t those depend almost exclusively on the pitcher. Also, wouldn’t the fact that Mauer has a cannon of an arm and Varitek rarely throws out anybody influence that? You also seem to be applying the 2006 ERA numbers to 2008, when our rotation was completely different. The only constants were Beckett (who had a terrible 2006), Wakefield, and part of a season of Lester.

To wrap it up, your error comes in assuming that the entire ERA jump was due to Varitek’s absence. The other teams in baseball seem to somehow get by without having Varitek to call their games. The Sox would be abundantly better off with Mauer over Varitek.

by Gnick on Jul 10, 2008 1:47 AM EDT 0 recs

Association and causation??

There is a difference between association and causation. Also, age takes its toll, so even if any of your stats were in a causative relation (strongly doubt it), this year is a different universe because Varitek is older and more frail. I am sure Babe Ruth made a difference to the Yankees but he can’t help them now! Aging, its a bitch!

by NG on Jul 10, 2008 8:36 AM EDT 0 recs

Good attempt

But, no, really. I don’t wanna take Tek out of the line-up now. He’s the team captain, and to make such a big move in the middle of the season could be trouble. After the season is gone, he could ask for big money or at least 4-5 years. The FO shouldn’t do that, to spend lots of money or to give more than a few years to a guy that looks done at the plate is sort of silly, no matter who he is.

If Tek would go for it, I’d be okay in signing him to a Wake kind of contract. He would still be a sort of ‘mentor’ to young pitchers, and Jeff Clement or Taylor Teagarden (who we will trade for Alex Cora straight up, have faith) could learn a thing or two from him.

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Jul 10, 2008 11:01 AM EDT 0 recs

this is what i'd like to see

part time “catching coach”, part time “game planner”, and part time backup catcher.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 10, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

drabidea is obviously a madman

Certfiable, foaming at the mouth, insane in the membrane. Where the heck would drabidea come up with the batsh*t crazy idea that Tek’s preparation and particular method of handling the staff in any way has a tangible, positive effect on the performance of our pitching staff?

Madman.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 10, 2008 7:33 PM EDT 0 recs

No one is doubting 'Tek's influence

but in every single tangible way, Mauer has been better than Tek this season, and will most likely continue to be.

by Gnick on Jul 10, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sure

I agree that drab may have erred on the side of hyperbole in saying Tek > Mauer, but his overall point – that Tek still represents a net positive for the team even when he’s not hitting his weight – is valid.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 10, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Great premise

I find it funny that just as Tek seems to be breaking out of his stretch of utter haplessness at the plate, people are attacking him.

by 0157H7 on Jul 11, 2008 12:20 AM EDT 0 recs

I dont know about that

I wouldn’t say going 2-12 over your last 5 games constitutes breaking out of a slump.

by Gnick on Jul 11, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

How about 4-16 over the last 6?

He’s had two two-hit games in the last six. That’s progress to me, considering how woeful he’s been – you have to go back to May 31 to find his last game with more than a single hit.

My point was not that he was out of the slump yet, just that he’s shown progress towards getting out of it. Maybe he won’t break out, maybe he’ll continue to stumble. I’m inclined to be optimistic, because Tek has always been like this – either very hot at the plate or completely unable to make solid contact.

by 0157H7 on Jul 11, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Nostradamus predicts

Varitek hits 3 bombs in 4 games beginning in two weeks. That’s the way he does business. All or nothing.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jul 11, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

My Point

Now that I have gotten everyone all worked up over my post. I was not aiming to prove that Varitek is a better catcher then Mauer. I would take Mauer over Tek in a heartbeat.

The point I was trying to make was that people highly underestimate (is that right?) Tek’s ability behind the plate. It is alot harder to see his contribution behind the plate then when he gets up to the plate and gets a hit. There was clearly some pieces missing in my math (mostly because I don’t have access to all the information needed).

All I was trying to show was some sort of quantitative value of how much Tek is worth to this team, and it would be a disaster to take him out at this point of the season. Thanks to all who replied to the post.

by drabidea on Jul 11, 2008 12:43 PM EDT 0 recs

I think you mean “grossly underestimate”. Highly underestimate sounds like military intelligence.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jul 11, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

haha

Yeah that is what I meant

by drabidea on Jul 11, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

You could've said "misunderestimate"

if you wanted to sound Prezedential.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 11, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Measuring a catcher’s contribution is hard. Hell, measuring any defense is hard. Most of the statements to his value are those of teammates saying he’s awesome behind the plate. But giving his catching a quantifiable value is tough. I admire the effort, though.

by 0157H7 on Jul 11, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

it's true....

catcher’s ERA only goes so far once you realize who was behind the plate for Pedro ‘99 – ‘04, D-Lowe ‘02, Schill ‘04… all some of the better seasons (ERA+ > 150) in hte history of the game. that’s 6 cy young contenders (not 7 because pedro ‘01 was ERA+ of 189 but in only 116 innings). throw in beckett ‘07 and that makes 7 potential cy youngs during his career (beck’s ERA+ was only 145 last year).

by jjbooth74 on Jul 11, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up 0 recs