Behold the Destroyah

by 0157H7 on Jul 9, 2008 9:00 AM EDT Comment 4 comments

In keeping with its subject, I'll keep this post short and feisty. Dustin Pedroia is ascending to the heights of baseball stardom. He began the season hot, slumped in May, and now he's on an absolute tear. Little Man has a 152 OPS+ for the month of June, and even better numbers in July.

Most impressive to me is his slugging. Last year Pedroia hit 8 home runs and 29 doubles, slugging .442. This year he has (as of Sunday) 9 HR and 25 doubles, good for a .462 slugging percentage. The league average for second basemen is 4 homers, and Pedroia is on pace for about 16 longballs.

Unfortunately, with great power comes great responsibility impatience. Pedroia's walk rate is down from last season: this year he's walked 22 times in 401 plate appearances (5.5%), versus 47 BB in 581 PA in 2007 (8%). This is reflected in his on-base percentage; last year his OBP was .380, now it is .357.

Some more oddities. Pedroia has destroyed lefty pitching. His line in 91 PA is .349 / .407 / .590, with 4 of his 9 home-runs coming off southpaws. In addition, the Destroyah has surprising speed, having stolen 9 bases this season without being caught. Pedroia is third on the team in value over replacement player (25.6), heads above Lowell (20.4), Ortiz (14.2), and Ellsbury (12.5), and just ahead of Manny (24.4).

Considering his uptick in slugging and his great hitting, Pedroia is deserving of his All-Star selection. Ian Kinsler has better offensive stats, but a Lugonian number of errors (16 to Dustin's 5), so defense puts Pedroia over the top. Watching him wrack up multi-hit games and drive in runs in clutch situations (Late & Close, 150 OPS+), he reminds me of Derek Jeter, albeit with better fielding.

So what's the prognosis on Pedroia? Is he the next Jeter, minus the models, $20 million salary, intangibility, fragrance deals? Is he the next David Eckstein, the lil' guy beloved of fans and sports writers? Is he Jeterstein, a towering personality in a tiny body, destined to be praised beyond measure? Speculate below and answer the poll.

Poll

Dustin Pedroia's future is...

An All-Star middle-infielder, hitting for average and power.

76 votes

A solid major leaguer (a la Youkilis). He won't hit or slug this well going forward.

50 votes

One of disappointment. We're seeing him at his best now, and he will decline into a shell of himself.

6 votes

Hazy. Cannot predict now. [I asked Joe Morgan / my Magic 8-Ball.]

5 votes

137 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Great attitude

What I like best about Pedroia is his competiveness. On a team which has won two World Series in the past four years and hopefully, three in five, there could be a letdown among some veterans, some complacency. I see Pedroia as an antidote for that – fresh enthusiasm, a burning desire to go all out all the time. They used to call guys like him a “sparkplug.”” and guys like that are valuable.

My only complaint on him – and you mentioned it – is that he needs to be a little more selective in his pitches – but I wouldn’t take away his aggressiveness at the plate. If that’s the way he is and needs to be to keep hitting the ball hard, well, then so be it. I’d love to see him, Jed Lowrie and Jacoby Ellsbury in the Sox lineup for the next 10 years, keeping the Sox solid up the middle.

by ccthemovieman on Jul 9, 2008 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

New swing

I’ve noticed this year that Pedroia changed his swing. He seems to gamble on some pitches, taking a mammoth, uppercut swing to jack the ball deep. On ABs where he’s just trying to get on base or drive in a runner on 2nd you’ll seem him take a flat swing on the ball to hit a line drive (often down the line). He used the flat, line-drive swing almost exclusively last year.

Who’s that bald guy with the biceps of a 6 year old?
That’s our new shortstop.

- Paraphrasing Pedroia’s college coach.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jul 9, 2008 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nice analysis.

nice analysis. (and i liked the ‘responsibility line’.) I wonder if Pedroia is being pitched any differently this year. Perhaps his walks being down is a function of, say, more fastballs earlier in the count. Does anyone happen to know this off-hand?

by Soxlosophy on Jul 9, 2008 8:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs