This team isn't winning a championship

by Charger567 on Jul 8, 2008 2:50 AM EDT Comment 43 comments

Here's my take on what we need to do to have a shot:

Improve our bullpen, grab a new catcher, and when Papi comes back, rearrange the order.

1. I feel our bullpen problem can be solved with Scott Downs. He has been dominant for the Blue Jays, putting up a 1.80 ERA and striking out 36 batters in 40 innings. He could set up our games and be reminiscent of last years Hideki Okajima, shortening up the games to 7 innings. With the Jays in dead last, they will be looking to rebuild, and our minor league depth will definitely be intriguing

2. I understand the Varitek works his pitchers well, but he's been hitting like a little leaguer all season with no signs of improvement. A perfect match for us would be Bengie Molina, who is also known to control his pitchers well, only with a much better bat. Molina is hitting just under .300 with 6 home runs and best of all, only 21 strike outs. Less than 1/3 of Varitek's strikeouts. Again, with the Giants 5 games out of the worst division in baseball, they may be looking to rebuild as well. 5 games isn't a lot, so I guess you could say they are in contention even though the division leader is below .500, so maybe things will be different at the trade deadline.

3. I just don't see Papi putting up big numbers when he comes back. Even when he was healthy, he was only OK with Ramirez's protection. His value was in his power, unlike last year when he was hitting .330. However, a wrist injury is devastating for power hitters, and I don't see Ortiz having the same kind of pop in his bat when he comes back. Instead, we should let Drew keep the 3 slot, who has been mashing the ball with Ramirez's protection, and not so much without it. I say when he comes back, let Drew hit 3rd, Ramirez hit 4th, and Papi hit 5th. I would say Papi should hit 4th, but having your 3 and 4 hitters both be lefties can be dangerous late in the game when a lefty specialist comes in and sets the heart of your order down. Drew has proven his best is better than Papi's best (this season), and Manny would probably pick it up with Papi protecting him.

Thoughts?

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Off on a tangent,

but look at the NL West. Not a team above .500. The Padres are looking like good trade partners right about now: Heath Bell, anyone?

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jul 8, 2008 3:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The return of the NL Worst!

"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"

by Allen Chace on Jul 8, 2008 4:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Justin Masterson

for Bryan Corey! Jason Varitek for Cla Meredith!

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jul 8, 2008 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My complements for taking off the Rose controlled glasses and

seeing some reality. Hopefully someone in Sox management will listen/do the same! I think you have to also get rid of the dead weight of Varitek-Crisp-Lugo by eleiminating at least two of these black holes if you want any other stratgy to maybe work!

Good post!

by NG on Jul 8, 2008 9:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Ideas

I like the idea of Papi batting 5th. Scott Downs or Heath Bell would be a great addition. I am not sold on Molina though. He isn’t that much younger then Tek. If we are going to take out our captain, we better put in an elite prospect that will be with us for years to come.

by drabidea on Jul 8, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Downs would be great.

But I suspect JP won’t deal within the division.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jul 8, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point, maybe we can hope that JP puts that aside considering that his team is so far out of contention.

by Charger567 on Jul 8, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ortiz

Ortiz has slugged .621, .636, and .604 over the last three seasons.

Drew has slugged .423, .498, .520 over the last three seasons. Even a red-hot Drew this year has only slugged .560, very good obviously, but a full 61 points lower than Ortiz last season.

Keep Big Papi 3rd, put Drew 5th.

by Gnick on Jul 8, 2008 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ortiz

And an ice cold Ortiz is slugging .486 this year, and coming off a wrist injury (a disaster for a power hitter) I don’t expect him to put up the same numbers he has in years past.

by Charger567 on Jul 8, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with Gnick

Ortiz was red hot when he went on the DL He was hurt may 31st. In 107 May ABs, Papi was hitting .318 AVG/.409 OBP/.617 SLG, with 8 HR and 22 RBI. I’d call a 1.026 OPS pretty damn good. As for Manny, I’d call a .228 AVG/.328 OBP/.386 SLG/ .714 OPS in May pretty poor protection.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jul 8, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by jjbooth74 on Jul 10, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Everyone...

needs to relax. This team could very easily be up 2 or 3 games on TB and lead the MLB in wins.

The Sox have 3 excellent starters, the best 1 + 2 punch in baseball in Manny/Papi, a fantastic closer, speed and great defense and we still have Josh Beckett and no one else does.

If the Sox get into the playoffs who are you afraid of?

The Angels? LOL please, when Lackey, Escobar or any of their pitchers can win a game in Fenway, Ill worry.

White Sox? Really?

TB? their playoff track record is fantastic.

The NL? OMG please stop. the NL is the personal bitch of the AL. There is not a team in the NL who can beat the Angels, Red Sox, White Sox or TB in a 7 game series.

So I am not worried what so ever.

This is all about numbers, get in and Josh Beckett will take care of the rest.

Everyone needs to stop with the Simmons rhetoric “its hard being a Sox fan”, we are a solid team that could win another WS easily if things work out, All Star game win for the AL, Yankees fall, Sox get home field advantage.

PS. Bryan Corey for Justin Masterson? Seriously? Why not trade Jacoby Ellsbury for Fernando Tatis, I hear he is available….

by SoxAcumen on Jul 8, 2008 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You may be correct, but

complacency in the face of obvious weakness is to me wearing rose colored glasses to cover up the truth. Two years ago what appeared to me to be a good Sox team folded in July and that was it! That bing said, I applaud the moves that Francona seems to be making tonight taking out Varitek and Crisp, and I think such shaking things up and putting poor hitters on notice is just what is needed. These guys are paid big bucks to play well, and there is no excusing weak performance on a consistent basis because real champions don’t do that!

by NG on Jul 8, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dustin pedroia cordially disagrees.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 10, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is very unlikely.

Far more likely: Dustin Pedroia jabs the air with his finger and says f**k you!

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jul 10, 2008 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also, '08 is NOTHING like '06.

2 years ago, the sox had 3 pitchers give them over 100 innings. wake was only good for 140 (in just 23 starts). We got 200+ from beckett and schilling. Beckett was adjusting to the league, and schill had an ERA+ of 120, which is pretty good.

we had TEN pitchers make more than 5 starts (and 14 different pitchers starting games overall). Jon Lester made 15 starts, which was good for THIRD on the team!

this is nothing like ‘06, when injuries completely destroyed the pitching staff.

Let’s not forget that only FOUR of hte starting 9 had OPS+ over 100. not to mention injuries in this department….. varitek got hurt, crisp broke his finger, gonzo only played 111 games, nixon was injured almost the whole year (and his performance showed it).. and let’s not forget manny’s september escapades.

this season is NOT 2006. We are fine. We will make the playoffs and we all know what happens when josh beckett makes the playoffs.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 11, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry,

lester’s 15 starts was FOURTH on the team.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 11, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Drew has proven his best is better than Papi's best"

That is crazy talk.

That said, i like the idea of Papi hitting fifth.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 8, 2008 6:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You’re right, that sounded bad, I meant this season.
If Ortiz was coming off a leg injury, I wouldn’t be worried, but once again, a wrist injury is a power hitter’s worst nightmare.

And Sox Acumen, don’t forget, we’re not even 2 games up on Minnesota, and it’l be .5 games after tonight. If we continue our woes, theres a chance we won’t even make the playoffs.

by Charger567 on Jul 8, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously posted before the 8th inning

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 8, 2008 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One-run games

Boston’s road record in one-run games is 2-14. That is a statistical anomaly, reflecting a HUGE amount of bad luck. If we were even 6-10 there, we’d be in first place.

I’m still convinced we have the best team in baseball. We’ve been beat up and unlucky. Sooner or later we’ll start firing on all cylinders again.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 8, 2008 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it isn’t bad luck. Maybe it’s our bull pen blowing games, or maybe its the bottom of our line up killing rallies. If it is only bad luck, well thats some pretty god damn bad luck.

by Charger567 on Jul 8, 2008 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is interesting.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 8, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you better be careful....

the rays have you in their sites with your evil “statistics”

by jjbooth74 on Jul 10, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Maybe it’s our bull pen blowing games, or maybe its the bottom of our line up killing rallies."

That pretty much sums it up the way I see it, especially the part about the bottom of the order killing momentum! Thank God Francona responded tonight by taking out Varitek and Crisp, and it worked because Moss got the winning run in. Let see if Fancona’s memory last more than one night!

by NG on Jul 8, 2008 10:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, I am not suggesting that’s completely it. There is certainly some bad luck involved, but I think it’s more the team than the luck.

And Tommy, I don’t think that really applies to our team. Okajima alone is responsible for about 6 of those 1 run losses, Hansen and Timlin each have their fair share, and I don’t have any stats for this, but if you’ve been watching Red Sox baseball this season then you know how many rallies Tek-Lugo-Crisp have killed.

by Charger567 on Jul 9, 2008 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe it is bad luck. But one thing is a lock in my head: with 2 competent bats to replace Lugo and Tek, and with another solid reliever, this is the best team in baseball and a heavy favorite to be World Champions. So good that we won’t even have to bother complaining about bad luck.

by Charger567 on Jul 9, 2008 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"competent bat" to replace lugo....

..... something along the lines of .267/.353/.329 ….? (which would be good for about 4th or 5th best offensive SS in the league) does that sound good?

............because that’s how lugo’s hitting this season.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 10, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

4th or 5th best… I’ll take that as a joke.

Hanley Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Michael Young
Miguel Tejada
Ryan Theriot
Christian Guzman
JJ Hardy
Yunel Escobar
Derek Jeter

And I guess I didn’t phrase that very well. I should have included Lugo’s game changing errors to top off the below average bat.

by Charger567 on Jul 11, 2008 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or you could check out some numbers.....

as of today lugo is FIRST in the AL in on-base percentage. First. Higher than michael young. Higher than derek jeter. He’s gotten 12 SB’s with that figure.

unfortunately, he’s only slugging in the low 300’s, so he’s 6th in OPS. 6th out of 10 qualifying AL shortstops. In other words: almost exactly average. Actually, Lugo has a 683 OPS. American league shortstops as a whole have combined for a 674 mark, 9 points lower than lugo. (he’s 3 points lower than the average OPS of the 10 qualifiers, but i’d say the 12 sb’s make up for that).

No, we don’t have jose reyes or yunel escobar. but you know what we do have? better records than the marlins, mets, rangers, astros, nationals, brewers, braves, and yankees. (unfortunately not the cubs).

shortstops don’t win the world series (sorry jeter, it wasn’t all you). pitching and defense does. last i checked lugo will play LF occasionally, but he’s never been called on as a relief pitcher, so he’ll have no impact on that. and his defense was fine last october, and despite early struggles he’s improved considerably recently.

did i mention he’s FIRST IN OBP?

by jjbooth74 on Jul 11, 2008 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry, he’s second in OBP if you count david eckstein’s 202 at bats (which isn’t enough to qualify for anything at this stage of the season).

by jjbooth74 on Jul 11, 2008 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey!

Just because Eckstein’s short, doesn’t mean he shouldn’t qualify.

by 0157H7 on Jul 11, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's not cause he's short...

it’s cause there’s only room for one “eck” in this town.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 12, 2008 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interestingly

You’re list only includes two AL SS. The rest are NL.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 11, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And one more reason why we need to add a reliever:
Papelbon has thrown 38 2/3 innings already in 39 games. He’s right about on pace to throw as many innings as he did the year his shoulder gave out, and to have appeared in a bunch more games.
We are completely dependent on him, and adding a solid reliever such as Scott Downs would allow us to limit Papelbon the way we did last year by giving Downs a couple save opportunities.

by Charger567 on Jul 9, 2008 2:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

paps...

was a younger pitcher on a completely different strength and conditioning program. # of innings wasn’t the reason he got hurt. he got hurt because he wasn’t PREPARED to throw that many innings. remember last year heading into october when papelbon was basically fresh and at his peak? i don’t see anything different happening this year.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 10, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong. Papelbon was fresh and at his peak heading into October because the rest of the bull pen was able to reduce his workload; Okajima took 5 saves off Papelbon alone. This year is unlike last year; this year he’s our ONLY go to guy (maybe Aardsma too).
We were very careful not to work him on consecutive days, and we held our breaths when he had to. He just worked 3 consecutive days; just because we’ve forgotten about his shoulder doesn’t mean its completely gone.

by Charger567 on Jul 11, 2008 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Proposed Deal

I agree with you, Charger567. I think that Varitek is possibly the best catcher behind the plate in the game, but his swing is worse than my grandmother’s. Plus, he is getting older, and catchers’ knees tend to give out earlier than any other position. As for getting Downs, I think his stats are slightly skewed. I mean, if you look at this season’s stats, he looks like a Cy Young Award contender. Look back to the past few years. Quite a difference, huh? I completely agree with your perspective in the Big Papi situation. He should bat fifth, partly because of Drew’s tear and partly because of his wrist. No power hitter comes back after a wrist injury and does as well as he did before, which wasn’t even that great in the first place. (This year)

by GoPats#12 on Jul 9, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting Article

I found this interview with Theo. If the link doesn’t work, it is from redsox.com.

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080708&content_id=3092372&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

by drabidea on Jul 9, 2008 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Downs has been great for each of the last 2 years. His ERA last year was just over 2 and he’s racked up 10 saves consistently.
I am going to take back the Bengie Molina idea because it’s not gonna be easy to tell your captain to move over unless it’s a stud prospect.
And honestly I don’t know how good our other options are within the system. Masterson is notable, Chris Smith is majors ready, Daniel Bard won’t be ready, and David Pauley and Hunter Jones are nothing special. Masterson and Smith are effective, but how huge of an improvement will they be over Hansen?

by Charger567 on Jul 9, 2008 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

'Tek is indispensible

The entire pitching staff is comfortable with him and the way he calls games. You want to see the team fall apart? Trade/DFA Varitek and watch our pitching staff waiver and implode. It will take time for the pitchers to develop a rapport with a new catcher, and by that time we’ll be lucky to still be in a playoff race with the Rays and Yankees. You can’t cut off the head and expect the body to live on.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jul 9, 2008 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs