Walkaholics Anonymous
It's no secret that the Red Sox like walks. Since the beginning of the Epstein era, the front office has prized hitters that can draw them and get on base. The Sox have been 1st in OBP four of the last six seasons (starting in '03), and 2nd in the remaining two seasons.
Sometimes an interest goes too far, however, crossing into the realm of fixation, even addiction. This year, the Moneyball-induced obsession with walks has afflicted the pitching staff, who seem to be giving up the base-on balls at a prodigious pace.
The Red Sox, before last night's game, had allowed 368 walks in 892.2 innings. This places them 4th in walks, trailing Detroit (3rd), Texas (2nd), and Baltimore (1st). For comparison, last year the Sox walked 482 in 1438.2 innings; the team's BB/9 has risen from 3.01 to 3.71 since 2007.
Unlike most issues with the Sox, the walk epidemic cannot be blamed on the pen. Rather, it originates with the starting rotation. Daisuke Matsuzaka leads the team with 57 walks in only 88.1 innings; this is good for 4th most in the league (5 behind leader Daniel Cabrera). Wakefield and Lester are also walk prone, with 47 and 44 respectively, although their high innings totals offset this (around 130 IP each). Buchholz and Masterson are even worse, with 55 BBs total in 106 innings between them.
In the pen, Aardsma and Hansen are walking more than 6 batters every 9 innings. Of the entire pitching staff, only Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon are truly good at suppressing walks. Beckett's walked only 25 in 120 IP, while Pap has allowed only 7 walks in 42.1 IP.
So what is the importance of a walk? Surprisingly little, it seems. Looking at the admittedly small sample of this year's AL teams, there isn't as strong a correlation between allowing walks and giving up runs as one might expect.
The Sox are 6th in ERA (3.82) despite all these walks, perhaps because their pitchers lead the league in strike outs. Meanwhile, Oakland, which is the AL-best in ERA (3.43), is only 9th in walks allowed (335). And the team with the fewest walks allowed, Minnesota (236) has a 4.28 team ERA, 'good' for 9th in the league. So fewer walks doesn't necessarily equal better pitching, and vice versa.
There is, however, a correlation between high walk totals and bad pitching staffs. The teams ahead of Boston in walks - Baltimore, Detroit, and Texas - are at the bottom of the league in ERA (11th, 12th, and 14th). These teams have bad pitching in general, however - they give up lots of home runs (except Detroit) and don't strike many batters out. The Sox, meanwhile don't give up the long-ball (4th lowest in HR) and lead the league in Ks.
Surprisingly enough, Boston's walk problem may not really matter at all. Or it may be a sign of bad things to come, if more hits start dropping in after Dice-K loads the bases. What do you think?
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11 comments
Comments
The source of walks?
It seems to me, although this is only speculation, that there may be different reasons for Sox pitchers to have so many walks. Obviously a majority will be a matter of bad location, but there could also be a strategy element where a bunch of these walks are the result of getting hitters to chase balls out of the strike zone – hence the high strike out ratio. Therefore, while other teams with high walk counts just have bad pitchers going to the mound, the Sox pitching staff must have some strategy with Tek to make hitters guess a bit more. The walks are just the “eggs” you have to break to make that league leading strike-out “omlete”.
You can take the boy outta Boston, but you can't take the Boston outta the boy.
by B Cap on Jul 23, 2008 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Matsuzaka is on course
for a historically weird season. An extremely low ERA considering the high number of batters allowed to reach base. He could end the season with an ERA a whole run below the starter with the next best ERA and still not be worthy of a Cy Young.
A WHIP of 1.36 should not correspond to a 2.63 ERA.
Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.
by britsoxfan on Jul 23, 2008 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i can’t really get on board with this…
the walks will catch up with whoever is issuing them. hansen and declarmen seem to get stung every time they issue a walk in an outing and dice-k has been supremely lucky to have gotten out of the jams hes created for himself this year.
so while all the data you’ve got here may be accurate it may be better suited to say “to this point it hasn’t made a difference” because at some point it will.
what has happened so far has in regards to the walk rate in relation to era is flukey (although the ability to strike people out has certainly curbed the effect).
it’s not an optimal strategy for success and the luck will run out
by EWS1532 on Jul 23, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
More numbers
Matsuzaka has walked 60 in 95.2 innings. Last year he walked 80 in 204.2 innings. He’s on track for fewer innings, more walks, and a much lower ERA. Opposing batters put up a .202 / .324 / .305 line against him – with an especially low slugging percentage. Last year his line was .246 / .326 / .405. This season, his BABIP is very low at .249 (typical number is around .290); last season it was .301. So EWS1532’s concern could well be justified if Matsuzaka’s BABIP normalizes in the remaining games.
The Sox give up more walks on artificial surfaces than on grass.
Turf: 5.17 BB / 9 innings
Grass: 3.46 BB / 9 innings
This is probably more about the skill level of the teams that play on those surfaces than the surfaces themselves.
by 0157H7 on Jul 23, 2008 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i should also add that it’s tough to determine what dice’s norms are….
we only have a season and a half to look at in mlb so it’s tough to say what his k rate, walk rate, etc.. should be at relative to projections.
however, i really can’t stress enough that it makes me nervous to see his babip etc.. so low.
but fingers crossed… maybe he evens out the rest of the way and he was lucky enough to dodge a bunch of bullets in the first half.
by EWS1532 on Jul 23, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The walks are definitely going to catch up with the Dice Man. But the question is, which happens first: the walks catch up to Dice-K, or Dice-K start eliminating the walks? I hope it’s the latter.
This is a really interesting topic that you brought up. I wonder, are walks up league-wide? Maybe it’s not a performance thing, maybe it’s a strike zone thing? Perhaps umps have a smaller strike zone this year? I’m curious how the Sox rack up this year and historically compared to other teams this year and historically.
by Randy Booth on Jul 23, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
but what happens to those walks that are no longer walks?
if you look at dice-k’s peripherals you’ll see that his gb% fb% are in line with last years numbers yet his hr/fb is WAY way down… that’s not likely to continue. his babip is really low, too. both of those are sure to regress.
so i pose the question.. what happens to all those walks when they become either k’s or balls in play? obviously not all the BB’s will become hits so his k/9 should go up slightly to line up with his career numbers. it is my belief that at-bats that were resulting in walks will being resulting in balls in play which will probably lead to his batted ball numbers finding the norm.
by EWS1532 on Jul 23, 2008 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bad French
“Je suis Gagne.” means more or less “I am won.” Careful when using names from foreign language that you don’t create another meaning to the statement.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jul 23, 2008 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I never studied French. So you can’t say “Je suis ” and have it mean “I am ?”
by 0157H7 on Jul 23, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you can’t say “Je suis (name)” and have it mean “I am (name)”?
by 0157H7 on Jul 23, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have to think that capitalizing Gagne implies that it is a proper name, rather than a conjugation of gagner.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Jul 23, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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