Randomizations.

by Allen Chace on Jul 13, 2008 4:43 AM EDT in Open Thread

via d.yimg.com

Lugo: We're going to miss him, believe it or not, and most of the time we won't know it when we do. He can still get to some balls that many SS in the ML don't, and that figures to be hard to notice on a game-to-game basis. I forsee Alex Cora being played far too often, as many have already pointed out. Cannot imagine a situation in which Lugo comes back and rides the bench, unless Lowrie hits about .300/.400/.500 in his absence.
Loved Youks' day, but how about "Being" with an excellent opposite field shot following Drew's over the monster shot? Very excellent and reassuring.
The team needs to be ashamed that they haven't won more of Wake's starts lately, in just this fashion. Superb again, Wake.
I think Buch will be okay. Don't ask me to base that assumption upon anything specific.
A less vague timetable for Papi's return? I'm excited. A week before the deadline? Interesting.
Thanks for saving your stress-free inning this week for a blowout, Craig.
Any guesses as to combined # of walks in Daisuke v. Daniel Cabrera this afternoon?
Also. Trade proposals with the Nationals for Jon Rauch? 1.01 WHIP, 42 Ks in 46 1/3. Nationals could use long-term help at basically every position, it seems, but 3B (Zimmerman), C (Flores) and possibly dangerous malcontent (Dukes).

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The only negative last night: those corny red jerseys

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Jul 13, 2008 8:40 AM EDT 0 recs

Priceless Boston Red Sox Photo

This is a great Sox photo, keep them coming!

by Boston Knucklehead on Jul 13, 2008 9:37 AM EDT 0 recs

We are NOT NOT NOT going to miss Lugo!

We all give more importance to ourselves than we should, but that being said, I measure how the team does by how they perform on the road in Seattle in midseason. I will be at all 3 games on 7/21-7/23, and the last time I did this in 2006, the Sox lost there and never recovered. This year we will see if that happens again, but I doubt it. If the Sox win all 3 in Seattle ON THE ROAD, I predict a blow-out, clear sailing for the rest of the year and another World Series Championship. If this potential comes to frutiion, and you got to know that this team has such potential, it will be mainly because Lugo is gone and eithe Varitek wakes up or is benched.

Momentum is a funny thing, and it does not take much to constantly kill the moment. Constant inept play in critical potential situations is what loses close games and kills subsequent momentum!! Now who is most likely to perform ineptly in critical situations on this team so far this year??? Get rid of those momentum suckers, and you ignite a dynamo, and absolute dynamo, which the rest of this year’s team has the poptential to become!

by NG on Jul 13, 2008 9:42 AM EDT 0 recs

so you're going to predict half of a season...

...based on 3 games played against the worst team in baseball after traveling to the middle of (baseball) nowhere?

only 7 teams in all of baseball have winning records on the road (and 3 of those are exactly .500). Only 2 of them lead their division (the angels & phillies), and the marlins are a 1/2 game behind the phillies. The other 4 teams are at least 5 games out of the lead in their division.

Winning on the road is ridiculous this season. Why? Because luck is a fickle b*tch, and statistical anomaly’s happen.

Lugo’s .350+ OBP will be missed in this lineup. If you want to talk defense, Michael Young scored a 39 on the saber +/ stat in 2005, which was the worst in the majors. But most people here would rather have young than lugo. I think the original post is right… lugo will be missed, even on defense.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 13, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

You are not reading my argument, but

that is your right. I am arguing that Lugo is a bad influence on team potential despite his deceiving stats, and this I base on my own long standing and comprehensive monitoring of Sox games especially in clutch situations! The part about Seattle on the road is somewhat window dressing but it highlights the point of the sox potentially doing well now without Lugo rather than despite Lugo!.

by NG on Jul 13, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

you said...

I measure how the team does by how they perform on the road in Seattle in midseason

That, to me, translantes into “3 games against the worst team in baseball in the middle of nowhere”.
Then you compared it to 2006, which is nothing like ‘08 (look at the difference in pitching).

Then you say…

If the Sox win all 3 in Seattle ON THE ROAD, I predict a blow-out, clear sailing for the rest of the year and another World Series Championship

Which, to me, says that you’re predicting a season based on 3 games against the worst team in baseball played in the middle of nowhere.

Sorry if i mis-read that.

You only mentioned lugo once in your previous post, and that was simply to state your hypothesis.

So, up to this point you haven’t really “argued” anything other than the fact that 3 games in seattle will determine the success of the ‘08 red sox, and that even if they win because sox pitchers throw 3 straight no-hitters, still you’ll say that it was because of lugo’s absence from the lineup that the momentum shifted.

i’m glad you get the hibbie-jibbies when it’s big papi at the plate and not lugo, as well you should, but i’d like to think that real analysis is goign to be a better metric than your “gut”.

That is to say… lugo has an 8.1 VORP so far this season. That means lowrie and cora (the R in vorp) would have given us 8 less runs over the course of the season if given lugo’s at bats.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 13, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Lowrie = replacement level?

I think he’ll be better than R-level, and probably better than Lugo on offense (not that Lugo has been a total offensive black hole this season). Yes, we’ll lose some some range at SS, but hopefully he’ll cut down on the errors too.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 13, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

the guy...

only has 46 major league at bats.

i’ll agree that his potential is quite high, but he’s not evan longoria. he has a negative BB/K ratio everywhere except portland and lowell, which is odd for talented hitters in the sox system, so perhaps he’s a little bit over-rated.

until he proves he can hit, i’ll assume the worst (which is the point of modifying things to R-level, and not just league-average)

by jjbooth74 on Jul 13, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

"negative BB/K ratio"

Kind of a weird stat to focus on. Every player on the Sox has a negative BB/K ratio. Of the 100 top OPS in baseball this season, only seven guys have positive BB/K ratios. Yes, Pedroia had a positive minor league BB/K. Ellsbury didn’t. On the 2007 Pawsox, no one had a positive ratio. On the Sea Dogs, only Lowrie and Jeff Corsaletti (who?) had positive ratios.

So Lowrie is not Evan Longoria. But he can hit, and has shown it throughout his minor league career. His numbers are comparable to Pedroia’s, and he has a better track record at the major league level than Pedroia did when he was named the starting second basemen.

Lugo isn’t terrible, or at least he is not as terrible as he’s sometimes painted around these parts. But personally I’d prefer he not be the starting SS for the remainder of his contract. Lowrie is the closest thing we have to an internal solution, I’m excited that he’ll get a chance to show what he can do. If he totally sucks – and he might, but I doubt he will – then the brass can evaluate the market in the off-season.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 13, 2008 8:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

The thing about Lowrie is that we know he can hit

We just don’t know if he can play SS at ML level.

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Jul 14, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

Couldn't the same said about Lugo?

(I kid)

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jul 14, 2008 12:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

:oops:

i suppose that’s what i get for looking at numbers after a long day.

i still think lugo is a solid (average) SS, and even though i’m as excited as you for the prospect of lowrie getting his shot… those situations rarely work out in the short term, and if he does win the starting job over lugo, then we go from one average hitter with terrible defense to a young probably-above-average hitter with declining defense, which eventually leaves us with a hole at hte position (unless tejeda makes a giant surge forward very soon).

by jjbooth74 on Jul 14, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

Rauch

I wonder if the Nats would part with him for any reasonable deal. I hear Bowden’s asking a lot. Wonder if some lower level guys would do it, or if the Sox would have to throw in either M. Bowden or Masterson. If you ask me, Masterson in the 8th inning is already greater than or equal to Rauch.

by sggut95 on Jul 13, 2008 12:35 PM EDT 0 recs

Kris Johnson + Chris Carter for Rauch

Think the Nats would fall for that?

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Jul 13, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

I Miss Lugo Like I Miss My Hemorrohoids

It’s so nice to see that lineup the last few days without that scowling idiot in there. Lowrie can play anywhere in the infield and switch hit. Not bad. This also gives him a couple more weeks of experience, which can’t hurt. I’m not saying he’s ready right now but he’s not far away. I wish less Sox made the All-Star team so they could rest up during this short break. They’ve earned it with the brutal schedule they’ve had to endure so far.

by ccthemovieman on Jul 13, 2008 10:13 PM EDT 0 recs