Sabermatician's Nightmare

by drabidea on Jun 26, 2008 4:38 PM EDT

I don't directly consider myself a Sabermatician, I don't really have the time to put in the effort to do heavy analysis. I do, however, believe in most of the concepts generated from sabermaticians. This includes the famous Bill James.

In one of Bill James Baseball Abstracts (I don't remember which volume) he does statistical data on what offensive metrics are a good determination of how many runs a team will score. He comes up with the conclusion that the two stats that are most correlated to run production are On Base Percentage and Slugging. This study is still highly believed to this day from most or all sabermaticians. Lets look at the Red Sox team numbers.

In 2008 the Red Sox are 2nd in OBP (.354) just behind the Cubs (.362). Also sitting in 4th are the Rangers (.348).

In 2008 the Red Sox are 2nd in SLG (.450) just behind the Rangers (.455). Also sitting in 3rd are the Cubs (.447).

It is quite easy to see that the Cubs, Rangers and Sox are the top 3 teams in Runs scored, which they are. The part that confuses me is the Rangers and Cubs have scored 435 and 430, respectively. The Sox have scored 406, almost 30 runs behind the Rangers. We have even played more games (81) then the Rangers (79). We are only 2 runs ahead of the Phillies who are ranked 5th and 10th respectively in SLG and OBP.

What can attribute for this clear discreption in a study that is as close to fact as facts come in statistics? Is there such thing as bad luck for almost half a season? Is our lineup not set up correctly? What are your opinions on why we are not getting the runs we deserve?

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Check out the RISP stat

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=BOS&year=2008

Quite simply, the Sox are not hitting well with runners in scoring position (.264 / .357 / .395), compared to their overall hitting (.279 / .354 / .450). OBP is about the same, average is 15 points lower, slugging is WAY down (55 points).

The Sox are good at putting men on and stranding them. The Rangers and Cubs are a little better at driving them in.

This isn’t a huge worry because they’re still 2nd in runs in the AL, despite injuries to Ortiz, Lowell, and others. Boston doesn’t have to be better at scoring than the Cubs or Phillies, just our divisional and playoff competition.

by 0157H7 on Jun 26, 2008 8:39 PM EDT reply actions

We've been without Papi for quite a while now

That must explain, doesn’t it?

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 26, 2008 9:44 PM EDT reply actions

To cross post from another thread:

By my count, since Papi’s been out, we’ve played 24 games and won 16 of them. Not bad!

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Jun 27, 2008 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Amazingly

the only team hitting better than the Texas Rangers is whoever they’re playing that night. They’ve scored 435 runs to lead the majors, but allowed 444.

MerryGoByeBye, I don’t think Papi’s absence can account entirely for this discrepancy. Without him the Sox still have high OBP and slugging, although Ortiz does hit well with RISP. Also, Drew really picked up in his absence.

by 0157H7 on Jun 26, 2008 11:40 PM EDT reply actions

the only team hitting better than the Texas Rangers is whoever they’re playing that night.

Bwuahaha! How embarassing for them.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 27, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

the rangers....

....have always been sort of a second-love, as i was born in Ft. Worth (right down the road from the old ballpark in arlington).

i can’t wait to see the rangers fire every scout they have that’s ever evaluated a pitcher. people play up the volquez/hamilton deal… i think that was a solid deal. i’m looking at things like waiting for Aaron Sele to be an ace.

what COULD have helped them would have been building a domed stadium, since it would have been attractive to elite pitchers. they need to pull the same sort of move as the NYM’s when they signed pedro… it’s not that pedro was a dominant pitcher, it just opened the door for other FA’s by saying “we’re serious. you can win with us.”

.....someday.

by jjbooth74 on Jul 1, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions