FanPost

Sabermatician's Nightmare

I don't directly consider myself a Sabermatician, I don't really have the time to put in the effort to do heavy analysis. I do, however, believe in most of the concepts generated from sabermaticians. This includes the famous Bill James.

In one of Bill James Baseball Abstracts (I don't remember which volume) he does statistical data on what offensive metrics are a good determination of how many runs a team will score. He comes up with the conclusion that the two stats that are most correlated to run production are On Base Percentage and Slugging. This study is still highly believed to this day from most or all sabermaticians. Lets look at the Red Sox team numbers.

In 2008 the Red Sox are 2nd in OBP (.354) just behind the Cubs (.362). Also sitting in 4th are the Rangers (.348). 

In 2008 the Red Sox are 2nd in SLG (.450) just behind the Rangers (.455). Also sitting in 3rd are the Cubs (.447).

It is quite easy to see that the Cubs, Rangers and Sox are the top 3 teams in Runs scored, which they are. The part that confuses me is the Rangers and Cubs have scored 435 and 430, respectively. The Sox have scored 406, almost 30 runs behind the Rangers. We have even played more games (81) then the Rangers (79). We are only 2 runs ahead of the Phillies who are ranked 5th and 10th respectively in SLG and OBP.

What can attribute for this clear discreption in a study that is as close to fact as facts come in statistics? Is there such thing as bad luck for almost half a season? Is our lineup not set up correctly? What are your opinions on why we are not getting the runs we deserve?