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Really. SS. Is this good?

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Errors suck. Wow. What an obvious statement, right? Errors are not the best way to judge a fielder. And as FP is based upon errors, we can't use that either. What can we use?

THT uses a metric called (revised) zone rating, or RZR, and they also attempt to measure the amount of balls a SS gets to out of his zone, or OOZ. BP uses a metric called Rate2, which is a measure of defensive proficiency that adjusts for league difficulty and "normalizes statistics over time". Rate2 is based on 100, where 100 is average and anything below, is well, below.

Lugo's THT Stats.

Lugo's BP Stats.

If you see those numbers, you'll notice...last, that Lugo's Rate2 is 83. He's well below-average according to BP this season, and was below-average last season as well, if not drastically so. On Lugo's THT numbers, I'll just tell you that he's at the bottom of the AL in RZR (behind, among others, David Eckstein) and is not exactly topping the charts in OOZ with 18. 

Don't get excited, Alex Cora fans. He's actually well-below Lugo in RZR at  .722 v. .772. He does notch a 109 according to Rate2, though it's possible neither number is particularly significant for Alex Cora given sporadic playing time. To my own amateur eye, the RZR difference is the truth. There are balls Alex Cora doesn't get to that it feels like Lugo might at least get close to, and some of which, to be frank, the 2005-2006 Alex Cora would've gotten to. 

I don't know. To my mind we have a shaky-handed SS who does have the capacity to make some great plays (take hits away) while making errors on some plays he should make. We have a backup SS who seems to, at the moment, not have the range to play SS anymore. I almost think that we might need to make a trade at the deadline for a better option as a backup MIF. It's a strange "need" for June/July, but I think there'll come a time where we'll need the kind of guy who can make the tough plays and have a steady hand for the ones that MIFs get time to think about. The two best defensive options potentially on the market:

Jack Wilson: Wilson is a whiz with the leather, he's a lifetime 106 Rate2 SS, with an .816 RZR last season with 76 OOZ plays. He's had a down year at the plate and has had injury issues this season, which could help us in attempting to acquire him in a trade. He isn't cheap, with a $6.5M salary this season, and $7.25 next season. That in itself, again, might help us acquire him cheaply in terms of players. I don't know. 

Khalil Greene: Greene always seems like a good SS to me, and his 108 Rate2 in 2007 and 115 in 2006 tend to bear that out. His RZR is .847 this season, .848 last season. He's got some power as well, though his offensive numbers have been down quite a bit this season. He's getting $4.5M this season and due $6.5M next season. 

If the Pirates have a willing taker for Wilson, they'd probably do well to deal him. He's probably not part of the next great Pirates team, and that's a lot of salary for a team operating on that kind of budget. On the other hand, the Padres don't necessarily have any need or obvious desire to trade Greene, He's about two years younger than Wilson and signed cheaper. I looked at his hit charts, and he's a pull hitter, which suggests he might be very successful at Fenway Park as opposed to the vastness that is Petco National Park. This is some possibly wild speculation on my part. Note, nothing about Jed Lowrie thusfar. We'll just leave it there.

0 recs | Comment 18 comments

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Momentum killing

There are a lot of intangibles that contribute to why a team falls short many nights/days. I watch just about every Sox game, and I just sense the momentum killing going on that causes potential rallies to die and the resultant loses. The biggest momentum killers in rank order to my mind are:

Lugo
Crisp
V(a)ritek (happy now?)

This sluggishness put together will keep the Sox in a marginal leader position, although like last year thay might get by. However, I feel this year will be tougher watch those Yankees), so continuing to ignore this offensive mementum drain may well cost the Sox their series potential. We all know that this problem needs to be addressed at least with Lugo and Crisp. Varitek may well provide other defensive pluses, but this would be a hard thing to prove, although all the announcers keep saying he does. Got me on that one.

Anyway, lets solidify the CF and SS positions with at least moderate fielding and moderate hitting players, and with the return of Ortiz, we should be okay. Otherwise, what you saw last night against AZ may become the norm!

by NG on Jun 24, 2008 8:07 AM EDT   0 recs

Ironically

that photo gives me the best feeling I’ve had about Lugo’s fielding this year. It’s an awesome picture…

I’m imagining that it fails to capture the fact that the ball that he’s throwing was probably a soft 2-out liner right to him with a runner on third, which he bobbled, and which he is about to lob into the stands, over Youk’s head.

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 24, 2008 11:22 AM EDT   0 recs

What about the Lugo from a year ago?

Lugo’s 2007 stats are:

RZR: .807
OOZ: 55
Rate2: 97

What happened to that guy?

Khalil Greene ain’t gonna happen, by the way. With a line like .234/.283/.358 why on Earth would you want him? That’s a .566 OPS! Plus, the Padres don’t have a replacement ready.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 24, 2008 12:35 PM EDT   0 recs

Pick one...

At SS, I really that that you have to pick either offense or defense for all intensive purposes. Guys like A-Rod who can play both aspects well are few & far between. Hell, they’re superstars! We’ll be whining about Lugo’s replacement one way or another.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 24, 2008 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Pick one…

Jed Lowrie!

His bat is probably no worse than Lugo’s, and his defense is probably no worse than Lugo’s. I doubt the pitchers would look less confident about putting the ball in play with him at short…

If it works, problem solved! If it doesn’t, he goes back to the minors.

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 24, 2008 1:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hanley Ramirez is a superstar

and he plays terrible defense.

by 0157H7 on Jun 24, 2008 1:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn't

need to stats to prove what I already know. Lugo is possibly the worst SS in the game not counting Jeter. Trade a B level single A player for Omar Vizquel.

Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist

by E5 on Jun 24, 2008 6:32 PM EDT   0 recs

At this point...

I’d much rather have Jeter. Frankly, probably at any point.

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 24, 2008 7:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Vizquel?

Fuck no, I’d rather keep Lugo.

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 25, 2008 3:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Unless...

...the Yanks bolster their ‘pen with Jose Mesa

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 25, 2008 3:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

or trade for Eric Gagne. Yeah, that’s the ticket!

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 26, 2008 12:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gagne doesn't...

...have the whole angry blood-feud thing that Vizquel and Mesa do.

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 26, 2008 3:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’ve always liked Khalil Greene. He’s shown power, but his batting line is weak this season. Defense, though, is what we really need out of that position.

by Randy Booth on Jun 26, 2008 1:29 PM EDT   0 recs

As much as I hate to say it.....

Lugo isn’t that bad, there I said it. I am not proud of saying it though. Last year Lugo had some confidence issues at the plate and this year he has them on the field. Lets not forget he is 14th in the MLB with his .366 OBP. That is beter then Jeter, Reyes, and Rollins. He has also managed to earn 30 walks this year.

I think in order to get someone with better defense then him and the same offense we would have to give up alot. We should stick with him and hope he stops thinking about his many errors and gets back to the defense of last year. If he could get back to the defense of last year and keep his OBP up, we would have one of the better SS in the Majors.

by drabidea on Jun 26, 2008 4:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm forced to agree

Lowrie really has poor range at SS. He’s primarily a 2B. Let’s wait and see what happens. Lugo isn’t exactly sinking the ship. The Sox are in first place.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 27, 2008 12:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lugo’s OBP is up, but his slugging is way down. With runners on, he seems to be aiming to walk rather than drive them in. His 2008 splits:
Runners in Scoring Position: .169 / .329 / .186
If he went up hacking in those situations, I’d expect more RBIs and BA and a lower OBP.

RISP, 2 outs: .238 / .448 / .286
In these situations, he bats a bit better, but walks even more.

by 0157H7 on Jun 27, 2008 1:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

On the plus side...

...its difficult to walk into a double play

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 27, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If anyone could

Lugo would find a way.

by 0157H7 on Jun 28, 2008 1:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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