The Stealing Sox

by 0157H7 on Jun 20, 2008 9:01 AM EDT

The most remarkable development in the 2008 Red Sox season has been speed. Coming off of last year, we expected great pitching, and we expected solid offense. But how many of us were expecting the Sox in June to be second in the league in steals?

Jacoby Ellsbury is almost single-handedly responsible for this achievement. He has 34 stolen bases, leading the majors in that category. Since getting caught for the first time in his major league career in May (after 25 steals), he has only been caught three more times, giving him a phenomenal success rate of 89%. Ellsbury has already shattered the Sox rookie record for steals (31), and is well on his way to breaking the Sox team record of 54 steals, held by Tommy Harper. Ells is on pace to rack up 73 stolen bases.

After Ellsbury, the biggest culprits are Coco Crisp (12 SB, 2 CS) and Julio Lugo (9 SB, 3 CS), followed by Dustin Pedroia (7SB, 0 CS). Pedroia's numbers surprise me, considering that 1) he is not a fast base-runner and 2) he never had this sort of success in the minors. He already has as many SB as he accumulated in all of last year.

Overall, the Sox have 70 thefts this season, and their baserunners have only been caught 13 times. Their success rate is 84%, better than the Rays (75%) and the Angels (72%), who are respectively first and third in stolen bases. If the Sox continue to steal at their present rate, they will swipe 151 bases this season.

Exciting as steals are, they often are overrated. Because of the intrinsic danger in giving up outs, most Sabermetricians argue that you need to steal bases with a success rate of 75% or higher for it to be worthwhile. (This article discusses that figure, and other interesting SB stuff.) Moreover, more steals doesn't necessarily equal more runs. The 2005 Red Sox scored 910 runs, but only stole 45 bases; by contrast, last year's team scored 867 runs, with 96 steals. And our current team projects to score only 822 runs, while stealing 151 bases.

As Ellsbury's prowess for base-stealing becomes known through the league, it could become harder for him to steal. Tuesday's game stands out in this regard. Ellsbury was on first with two outs, and swiped second despite a pitch-out. He then broke for third, and the catcher's throw nailed him, ending the inning. With his speed, Ells could have scored from 2nd on just about anything, so stealing third was an unnecessary risk.

So what do you think about the blatant thievery going on? Will Ellsbury keep up his record-setting pace? Is Pedroia's success sustainable, or will his aggressiveness and lack of speed catch up to him? Should the Sox cool off a bit on the base paths, or continue to tear them up?

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Ellsbury’s steals are real but he will be slowed up a bit. I am sure he still will get close to 70 steals this year. Pedoria is a complete fluke and I doubt he will every get more then 20 steals in a season. Omar Vizquel was not a fast runner and consistently had more then 20 steals a season for a while but I don’t think Pedoria is as good of a base runner and doesn’t get the running start Omar used to. Coco and Lugo are real and stealing is one of their few above average pluses so I don’t see them slowing down in fact I think we will see more from them. While steals doesn’t always equate to more runs scored it does equate to more defensive errors and allows for more hit and run and hitting behind the runners. I believe one of the major reasons for the increased steals is the lack of Ortiz being in the lineup or inconsistent. If Ortiz was in the lineup and hitting well I don’t think the Red Sox would feel the need to steal as much. The Sox are the perfect blend of speed and power when completely healthy and when their hitters are struggling or not hitting for power they have the ability to manufacture runs when they need to. This combination will make the deadly in the post season as runs become more scarce and the pressure to field the ball cleanly is increased. Clearly they are not just running for running sake as they are being successful on a good percentage. Much credit must be given to the organization and coaches for the base steal success rate.

Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist

by E5 on Jun 20, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

Don't forget about Manny

He also has a SB, and he’s a well known speed devil. :)

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 20, 2008 3:05 PM EDT reply actions

And a Gold Glove-r...

...if only they’d stop DHing him.

Rock me, sexy Jesus...

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 20, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Manny is the only guy that could

Make a wall climb catch and steal a home run playing LF in Fenway. :)

It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 20, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

And high five a fan in the process..

by 0157H7 on Jun 20, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

And then drop the ball for an E

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Jun 23, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Pedroia

Couple thoughts:

First, Pedroia is a smart, attentive ball-player, and he plays aggressive. I think he can wind up with 15-20 on sheer will alone, despite being relatively lead-footed.

Second, I wonder how many of his SBs are from double-steals, where Ells takes 3rd. I think I recall at least one of those.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jun 21, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

Two are from double-steals.

Specifically on May 4th and June 17th.
Dustin’s 7 steals:
April 10th vs Detroit: Pedroia steals 2nd with 1 out in the 7th and no one on 2nd.
April 13th vs NYY: Pedroia steals 2nd with 2 outs in the 8th.
April 22nd vs LAA: Pedroia steals 2nd with 2 outs in the 6th.
May 4th vs Rays: Ells and Pedroia engage in a no-out double steal (3rd and 2nd) in the 1st against Scott Kazmir.
May 17th vs Milwaukee, Game 2: Pedroia steals 2nd in the 3rd with 1 out (Ortiz).
May 19th vs Royals: Pedroia steals 2nd with 2 outs and Ellsbury on 3rd in the 3rd inning.
June 17th vs Phillies: Lugo and Pedroia double steal 3rd and 2nd with 2 outs in the 3rd and Drew at the plate.

by 0157H7 on Jun 21, 2008 4:36 PM EDT reply actions

thanks

i thought so

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jun 21, 2008 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

wait, three are from double steals

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Jun 21, 2008 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

No, only two. On May 19th, Ellsbury was already on 3rd (having tripled) when Pedroia broke for 2nd. I looked through the gamelogs, and as far as I can tell, only two double steals occurred with Pedroia (June 17 and May 4).

by 0157H7 on Jun 22, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions