Sabathia?
With the Indians reeling from injuries,* their front office may decide to trade ace C C Sabathia, an impending free agent.
The Sox certainly have the pieces to make an offer for him. However, acquiring Sabathia seems like a better move for the Yankees, whose rotation is once again faltering.
Sabathia's arm has a lot of wear. At age 27, he's pitched over 1500 innings in the majors, including 256.1 last year (counting the playoffs). He's been a great pitcher, especially over the past two seasons, with ERA+s of 140 and 143. For a power lefty, he has great command - from the 2005 season onward, his walks per nine innings have always been lower than 3.0. He also has a high K-rate (career 7.38 Ks / 9) and suppresses the long-ball, having never more given up more than 20 HR in a season.
So the $20 million question is, should Boston be in on Sabathia? Assuming the Indians begin shopping him, should our front office aggressively pursue him? Or should they sit tight with the current rotation?
* Catcher Victor Martinez just went down, and stars Fausto Carmona and Travis Hafner are on the DL. Pitcher Jake Westbrook recently had season-ending surgery. The Indians are 31-36, 6.5 games behind the ChiSox.
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21 comments
Comments
Why?
Is he really worth it? If we were going to give up our young guys for an ace, it would have happened this past offseason. What is different now? Our young prospects have shown they are capable of major league play, and the pitcher we are getting in return isn’t as good.
We don’t need starting pitching this year or in the future (assuming we could even sign him to a massive money contract). Let other teams drain their farm systems for a pitcher, who in my view, is over worked and an injury waiting to happen.
by drabidea on Jun 13, 2008 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not big on Sabathia
But I don’t wanna see him pitching for the MFY either.
It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.
by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 13, 2008 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Red Sox
are making sure the Yankees have to pay top dollar or CC. In the end I think CC to Chicago Cubs or Philly makes more sense. Indians do not want to face CC in the AL and certainly do not want to give the Yankees or Red Sox another front line starter they would have to deal with in the playoffs.
I see a very similar situation as Santana coming out of this and CC gets moved to the NL to a contender for much less than what the Yankees and Red Sox will offer.
IMO CC is a what I like to refer to as a “psuedo-ace”, looks great at times but would anyone want rely on him in a playoff game?
However, if the Indians want lets say Moss and Buchholz for him, ill listen.
CC will probably have a better career than Buchholz.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2008 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Buch is having a hard time on AAA
But he’s still our top prospect. Give the kid some time before even getting him in trade talks.
It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.
by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 13, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hold onto Buchholz
CC is a good pitcher, but isn’t worth emptying the farm or paying $17-20+ million for. I’ll take my chances on a combination of Wake, Dice-K, Beckett, Lester, Colon, Masterson, etc. Right now, the Sox’ combined salary for all of their starters is around $30-33 million (including Schilling). Right now, Sabathia is an expensive luxury. The Sox don’t need him.
Buchholz is young, cheap, and has the chance to be something special. I’m not sure Sabathia will have a better career. Buchholz has wicked stuff.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 13, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
CC won the Cy Young
CC already has a Cy Young and now that Masterson has proven his stuff is better than Buchholz, Clay is the trade bait.
Again, ill refer to my Santana arguments, CC is a proven starter. Buchholz is still a prospect. I would rather have a proven starter than a guy who COULD be good.
Money is not a big deal any longer for the Sox. We will clear $10 million from Schilling next season and most likely Wake’s $3 million. So the Sox will have to up their salary by $4 to 6 million for CC. If CC can help us win this year and all we have to do is give up Buchholz, well, he is gone.
I will admit I was wrong about Ellsbury with the Santana trade offers, I would not trade him for anyone who last name is not Upton, Webb or Kershaw.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Masterson hasn't proven anything
He hasn’t even thrown 40 major league innings. And any scout will tell you that Buchholz has much better stuff. There is no way Buchholz is “trade bait.” He is still the top pitching prospect in the organization.
Buchholz is a year younger than Masterson, and has been much better in the minors (career numbers):
Buchholz (301.2 IP) 2.51 ERA 1.03 WHIP 11.06 K/9
Masterson (229.2 IP) 3.77 ERA 1.19 WHIP 7.42 K/9
Here are the scouting reports on both pitchers from soxprospects.com:
Buchholz:
has a low-to-mid 90s four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball with decent movement, a slider, a hard 12-to-6 curveball, and a change-up. In 2006, Buchholz actually let loose towards the end of the season, when his fastball was sitting around 96 mph. However, over the course of the season his fastball typically sits around 91-94 and tops out at about 97 mph. His plus change-up is generally a straight change that sits around 78-82 mph; he also throws a circle change. His curveball, the best in the organization, sits between 76-81 mph with a knee-buckling bite. On any given night, Buchholz’s curve or change can be unhittable, and he tends to rely on whichever is on as his out pitch throughout the game. His slider, while average to above average, is a bit behind his other secondary pitches and sits in the low to mid 80s. Mixes in all of his pitches phenomenally. Good demeanor on the mound. Pitches well under pressure, pitching coaches have said he has ice water running through his veins. Nice pick-off move. Struggled with consistency early in his pro career, but otherwise has ace makeup. Might need to add and maintain some weight to endure a full major league season.
The pitcher they compare him to: a righty Cole Hamels.
Masterson:
Big righty with an ideal pitcher’s build. Dominated the Cape Cod League in 2005. Masterson has a three-quarter delivery with a slinging-type motion. His arsenal includes a sinker, a slider, and a change-up. Of those pitches, his best is a phenomenal plus-sinker with an excellent heavy drop—he can vary its speed from 84-94 mph, catching many hitters off balance. Also mixes in a very good slider that sits in the low 80s, and an improving 77-81 mph four-seam circle change. Uses his sinker predominantly as his out-pitch, but also can make use of his secondary pitches to get out of jams. Could stand to mix in his changeup a bit more. His mix of pitches results in a high groundball-to-flyball ratio, getting a lot of double plays. Very good command of the zone. Prepares well for every game and pitches with confidence on the mound. Good fielder with a quick and deceptive pick-off move. Strong character, Masterson is one of the most likable persons and teammates going. Converted to a starter in 2007 after coming out of the pen for Lowell in 2006, may still project as a reliever at this point depending on how well his change-up progresses. Needs to work on keeping his delivery consistent deep into games – he’s struggled a bit the third time through lineups. If he moves to the pen, Masterson will need to keep the walks down and improve his ability to pitch out of the stretch. Ultimately, Masterson’s ceiling is a #2 starter or a dominant set-up man.
Pitcher they compare him to: Derek Lowe.
To give up a potential ace pitcher who is not yet 24 for an expensive pitcher with tone of wear and tear like Sabathia is crazy. Even crazier, is the notion that a deep team like the Sox needs another arm, especially one that will likely be very expensive and isn’t one of the top ten pitchers in baseball.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 13, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Opps
Masterson is 7 months younger than Buchholz.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 14, 2008 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Masterson
IMO, Masterson is the Red Sox top prospect. Ellsbury is a playa, I do not consider him a prospect any longer.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buch has better stuff than Masterson
And far better numbers as well in the minors. I’m going to compare his numbers with ones posted by another guy we all know very well:
Clay: 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 116 SO and just 22 BBs.
The other guy: 2.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 89 SO and 30 BBs.
Buch was just a year older than Peavy (crap, ruined the mistery) was, and played just a game more. And while I’m not saying that he will ever be anything near to Jake Peavy, most likely he’ll be fine. Masterson is looking great in the majors, but Buch also did way better in his first 4 appearances in the major.
It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.
by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 13, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Masterson has 2 pitches, one being his sinker that are fantastic and a very nice 3rd pitch. Buchholz will not establish his fastball and relies far too much on his curveball/change up combination and hitters in the MLB have figured this out.
again this is only my opinion, but if the Sox were to take one or the other and put them on the staff I would rather have Masterson.
by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2008 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carsten Charles...
Am I alone in simply not being worried about facing Sabathia? Our current active line-up, in 100 total PA, has a .312 average against him and an OPS of .970. His ERA v. Boston is near 4. He’s – at best – an ordinary pitcher against us (however, his Fenway ERA is 2.35). He’s also merely an average post-season pitcher.
Would I rather have him than Bart or Wake? Probably, but his price is going to be too high in terms of prospects in a trade. I wouldn’t trade Bucholz for him,* and Cleveland would likely only want Bucholz as a headliner of a long list of prospects.
Plus, Sabathia would then want money I’d rather use on Beckett. Beckett may currently look unfamiliar when compared with his dominant self of last year, but he’s not more inconsistent than Sabathia, his top gear is better than Sabathia (IMO), and he’s a proven playoff winner. Plus, anxiety-inducing ST photo aside, Beckett’s physique will age more gracefully than Sabathia’s.
I agree that I think he’ll go to the Cubs or the Phillies (probably the Cubs), but I wouldn’t honestly mind if he goes to the Yankees, provided that Cleveland bleeds them for prospects…
- - Bucholz was overrated by fans in the wake of his no-hitter, but is now far underrated as a result. He’s an ace-in-waiting, once his head gets screwed on right again, and I think the no-no was far more indicative of future results than his recent bed-crapping…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 13, 2008 4:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
C.C
is not a consistent game changing pitcher and due to body physique and the amount of innings he has throw with his checkered playoff performance the Red Sox should pass. He certainly would cost to much in terms of prospects and dollar amount. I see his career taking a big slide in the near future and doubt that who ever ends up with him next year will have their dominate ace. C.C’s emotions tend to get the best of him and he wouldn’t do well in Boston with the increased pressure of the media and fans. C.C would be best served in a city like Cleveland, Kansas City or playing with the Cubs. He isn’t a mentally strong pitcher and relies on his stuff more then his ability to set up hitters or change locations. His control is good most times but when he isn’t mentally in the game his fastball straightens out and it becomes a very hittable pitch. He tends to have problems staying focused in big game or games against certain teams. He is more or less Bartolo Colon’s little big brother.
Baseball is God's sport! All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident. kinesiologist
by E5 on Jun 13, 2008 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We don't need him
Even without him, we have Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson for next year, and we might be able to re-sign Colon for much less than Sabathia would want. Why trade away top prospects for a guy who looks like he’s a little burned out and wouldn’t be that big an improvement anyway?
by RSNexile on Jun 13, 2008 5:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Red Sox
will go after another starter in the off season. Look at the Yankees, no way both Buchholz and Masterson are in the rotation at the same time unless there are injuries.
Young pitchers are not reliable. Why not go after CC if you can get him. Same with Santana or Oswalt or Yu Darvish. I want a guy who has pitched a few years and knows what he is doing.
Seriously guys, we sound like the Yankee fans who would not give up Hughes for Johan Santana. CC and Santana have Cys on their resumes, Buchholz has nothing but a no-hitter, an unwillingness to use his fastball and potential.
CC Sabathia with the Red Sox run production, defense and Tek is a 18-20 winner.
Anyone here still believe that Clay Buchholz is worth more to the Boston Red Sox than Johan Santana?
by SoxAcumen on Jun 13, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buchholz may not be worth more than Santana now
But might be in a few years, and he’ll be much cheaper. Payroll flexibility is very important.
The analogy between the Sox and MFY with young pitching is flawed. The MFY were counting on Hughes and Kennedy to make a huge impact this year because the rest of their rotation isn’t great. The Sox top three-Beckett, Dice-K, and Lester-is much better than the top of the MFY rotation. And Colon and Wake are better than anything New York has at the back of their rotation. The Sox have the luxury of bringing Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden, etc. along slowly. If two of the three (or another prospect) step up in the next couple of years, the Sox are set for a long time.
They don’t have to spend wildy.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 14, 2008 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In addition to what Drugs said...
...you’re forgetting all the wear and tear on Sabathia’s arm already and the fact that he looks like he’s about to crash and burn the same way Bartolo Colon did for the past few years.
Sure, Sabathia could come back and be just as good as Colon is now, but in the meanwhile, you’re paying him $18-20M per year to be Carl Pavano and you’ve traded away a guy who is likely to be better than him by the time he gets his game back.
More than anything, that’s what makes this different from the Yankees not wanting to give up one of their young pitchers for Santana. Santana is (and was) still healthy, so they wouldn’t be taking such a huge risk. What you’re proposing just seems a lot like the Tigers trading John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander in 1987—sure, they won the division, but the trade didn’t get them to the World Series, and in the end they gave away a future Hall of Famer for nothing. I’m not saying Buchholz is a future HoFer, but he’s good enough you don’t trade him away for a guy who is hurt and will demand a huge contract.
by RSNexile on Jun 14, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone here still believe that Clay Buchholz is worth more to the Boston Red Sox than Johan Santana?
raises hand
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 14, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To elaborate:
Buchholz (2008) < Santana (2008) = Yes
Buchholz (2008) + $ 16.6M < Santana (2008) = Probably
Buchholz (2008-2014; ages 23-32) < Santana (2008-2014; ages 29-35) = Not necessarily
Buchholz (2008-2014) + $ 89.5M* < Santana (2008-2014) = Probably not
Buchholz (2008-2014) + Masterson, Lowrie, Crisp + $ 89.5M < Santana (2008-2014) = No
- - Estimating an AAV of $ 8M, which – considering he’s under Sox control is realistic, if not liberal…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 14, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great point
Most likely than not, Buch will still be our ace.
It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.
by MerryGoByeBye on Jun 14, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Get Sabathia
I’d agree that we shouldn’t include Buchholz in a deal for CC but at this point in the season the Indians would probably take less for him considering he’d only be under contract for another 2 months if traded at the deadline. It might just take some combination of two out of Bowden, Masterson, and Lowrie, plus one other C grade prospect.
Comparing CC’s stats to the pitching elite shows that he ranks among the best in the game. He’s young, extremely durable, and has been one of the best for years. People use the fact that he has thrown a lot of innings as a negative but what do you want to see, a guy who has been hurt a lot and not thrown many innings, a guy who can’t go deep into games? CC’s innings totals are also a bit deceiving because he’s not a strike out pitcher, and has excellent control, and therefore keeps his pitch counts down.
When you compare their stats over the past three seasons Sabathia has been better than Beckett for the most part. In 2006 his ERA+ was 45 points higher, they were nearly identical last season, and this year, despite CC’s terrible start, Beckett’s is only six points higher. His control is just about the best of any pitcher out there, meaning that he is unlikely to lose his ability as much as he ages. Considering that control is less likely to go as pure stuff is.
Overall, I wouldn’t mind acquiring Sabathia as long as it didn’t mean we would have to give up Buchholz, which isn’t unreasonable to think at this point. An offer of Pedroia (don’t get mad I just think Lowrie is a better fit for the Sox long term), Bowden, and say, Ryan Kalish, would be hard for the Indians to refuse.
by Gnick on Jun 16, 2008 12:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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