i'd like to make a prediction

by spinz on May 1, 2008 3:26 AM EDT Comment 16 comments

i've seen the future, and i think this years trade deadline commotion is going to be all about....jake peavy :P If the padres playoffs hopes tank, and peavy continues to sport an era of 2 at least 3-4 teams will throw the sink at sandiego to try and get peavy. Hes signed until 2009 and the padres probably wont be able to afford him passed then. And of course we'l be hearing endless rumors of him going to boston or newyork. The future is giving me a headache allready.

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Peavy vs Santana

I just want to say I would much rather throw the farm out for Peavy then Santana. I am sure I will get some disagreement on this one (which is half the fun of posting on this site). However, let me state my case.

If you look at the numbers for Johan and Jake they are very similar. Peavy tends to get more GO’s then Santana with the same amount of K’s. Fenway Park is much more easier for right handers. Peavy is younger then Santana. Santana was worked too hard in minnesota. Santana threw more then 219 innings for 4 straight years, I don’t care how much of a horse you are that can not be good on your shoulder/arm. Peavy only threw one season more then 203 innings. Peavy has a better ERA as of late. The majority of that could be due to the Park and NL. However, if you look at the ERA+ and lgERA numbers (which are park adjusted) he still has a lower ERA then Santana. Peavy accels in clutch situations

(please see http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/pitchers_can_be.php)

I firmly believe that if Peavy ever had a chance at being in the playoffs he would accel, maybe not like Beckett but not everyone is a god in the playoffs like him.

by drabidea on May 1, 2008 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I really would like Peavy pitching for the Sox, and I also think he would be better for us than Santana. I wonder what would take us to get him.

Walk on, walk on With hope in your heart And you'll never walk alone You'll never walk alone

by MerryGoByeBye on May 1, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stil

Santana pitched in the AL whereas Peavy pitched in the NL. Even adjusting for the park, I put more stock in Santana’s accomplishments. The most worrisome aspect, as you noted, is the number of innings pitched.

Trading the farm (and/or young MLB Sox) for either makes me queasy because you’re putting all of your eggs in one basket. Say “sore elbow” and Theo would be run out of town.

Just for fun, is there some statistical way to use VORP for the players included in a deal to see if the sum of the parts is better or worse than the guy you’re trading for? Maybe a simple mean/average would work. Does PECOTA do VORP? We could look 3 years in the future.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on May 1, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Righties

Our starting rotation is almost all righties: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, Schilling (When we get him back.) Our only lefty is Lester, and he’s not exactly an ace, yet. Santana would have helped since he was a lefty, but it would never hurt to get another ace. I just dont want this to be another Santana trade, which seemed to last 6 months.

If the right side of the brain controls the left side of the body, then only lefties are in the right mind. Bill "Spaceman" Lee

by BoSox415 on May 3, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed... partly

I would agree that adding a young stud like Peavy to the rotation makes it the Boston rotation tops in the Majors. Trouble is… the cost to get him + a new needed contract.

I think it would take another Masterson + Ellsbury + Lowrie – type offer to get the job done. That leaves the Sox without much major league ready mL players and a very, very expensive veteran. If you have capable, young, affordable arms in the mL, why trade for one who will just be marginally better?

I’m as big of a Peavy fan as anyone (having seen him strike out Bonds in 2005 when I was in San Diego) but I think that building a team from young, home grown talent is the way to go… especially if you have the kind of talent the Sox do nowadays.

Now if the asking price came down and it didnt take the Mastersons/Bowdens/Andersons of the world to get him. No we’re talking. But SD is smart, other than being able to build an effective offense sans Adrian Gonzales, and I dont see that happeneing. Let the Yankees trade the farm for him ala the other New York franchise.

by Red Peltic on May 1, 2008 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"marginally better"

While I’d be very sad to see the Sox trading the entire farm system, Peavy isn’t “marginally better” than anybody in our rotation other than Beckett. He’s way better.

Walk on, walk on With hope in your heart And you'll never walk alone You'll never walk alone

by MerryGoByeBye on May 1, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right.

Maybe “marginally” wouldn’t be the right word. I was just trying to convey the separation in production. For example:

Peavy 200IP, 18 W, 210K 3.50 ERA – for prospects and 20 million AAV contract
vs
Masterson/Bowden at 15-17 wins, 190IP, less Ks, 4 ERA.

I dont know what these players are projected to have, but I was just pointing out the increase in production may be marginal compared to the talent you’d have to trade away.

by Red Peltic on May 1, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Peavy

is signed at $13 million a year for another four years
Source:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3152551

So he’s underpaid by at least $8 million. He’s not an ace on the brink of a huge contract, like Santana or Sabathia. Realistically, there’s no way they’d trade him.

Unrealistically, the Sox could get him for a package of Buchholz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Masterson, Lowrie, Lars Anderson, and… A SHRUBBERY!!!!

by 0157H7 on May 1, 2008 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This will never happen...EVER!

Sorry for the caps and uncalled for punctuation, I just wanted to make sure my opinion was understood.

Jake Peavy will most likely pitch for San Diego for 10+ years and then and only then will the SD front office think about moving him.

He is their franchise player, for lack of a better term, he is cheap and he dominates, plus I agree with 0157H7 in that we would at a minimum have to be willing to give up Buchholz and Masterson + some combination of Lowrie, Ellsbury, Pedroia and a few other prospects.

To get Peavy -> Buchholz, Masterson, Lowrie, Ellsbury and probably Kalish or Place and maybe even Bowden as well.

Never going to happen. The Sox have a much better chance at getting Kazmir or Ben Sheets.

by SoxAcumen on May 1, 2008 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Question

Does Ben Sheets pitch any more frequently for the Brewers than Dave McCarty (LF/1B) pitched for the Red Sox?

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on May 2, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That Kazmir thing souns like a good idea...

It would boost our team strikeout total.

If the right side of the brain controls the left side of the body, then only lefties are in the right mind. Bill "Spaceman" Lee

by BoSox415 on May 3, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kazmir

I have to admit. I would love to have Kazmir on the team mostly because of…..

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/03/categorizing_pi_3.php

However, he is a lefty, and I think one lefty in the Red Sox lineup is enough. Anymore could be danger. Besides he gets arbitration next year and isn’t a FA until 2010. With the lack of money they pay him now I can’t see the Rays not resigning him.

I think Ben Sheets was worked too hard early in his career. Starting at age 23, let me state that again, age 23 he pitched 216, 220, and 237 in 3 consecutive seasons. That is too much work for such a young kid, I don’t think he can ever bounce back from that.

A.J. Burnett has had 3 full seasons his whole career. It would take us another 9 seasons to get 3 full years out of him. Doesn’t sound like it is worth the money we would have to pay him.

If we are going to drop alot of money on a starting pitcher, we need to minimize the risk of a failure.

Derek Lowe would be a nice back of the rotation guy that would eat up innings. His cost would be too much though. I am sure he would ask for 10 mil per year which I can’t see doing for D Lowe.

by drabidea on May 5, 2008 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

btw its early

Lets see how things look in July and teams selling and the Yankees are willing to buy anything to keep in the race.

by SoxAcumen on May 1, 2008 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He is signed past 2009???

Well that changes everything. We don’t have a chance in getting him. I thought he was in a similar situation as Santana over the off season.

by drabidea on May 1, 2008 3:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hmmm yeah i didnt see that extension news, that does change things, but i still expect to see rumors flying if the padres are 10+ games under .500.

by spinz on May 1, 2008 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

there are other pitchers who

have more publicity going on for trade purposes. CC, Kazmir, Harden, Blanton, maybe Penny or Lowe if the Dodgers do not get going. Possibly Smoltz for someone’s bullpen.

Peavy is going nowhere and I doubt anyone will inquire.

Peavy, Webb, F. Hernandez are untouchables. Just like Buchholz is the same for the Sox.

by SoxAcumen on May 1, 2008 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs