Recent Downfalls
With the worst losing streak of the season putting us behind the Rays in the standings, made me curious why we are struggling as of late. I am kind of a stat guy so I like to look at stats to help guide me.
My first instinct was that our bats had finally cooled off compared to our early amazing slug fest. This doesn't seem to be the problem. In the past 7 days we have the second highest batting average (.311) and OBP (.390) behind the Cubs. We are also still 7th in the majors with runs scored.
Well clearly my next thought was, it must be our pitching. It has stunk all year, it must be extra horrid as of late. Our team ERA has actually gotten better over the past 7 days from 4.61 to 4.57. Still horrible, but why are we losing now because of it? If our pitching as marginally gotten better why would we lose more?
Parts of me says it is because of the really, REALLY long stretch of games we have had with no time off (28 games in 30 days). So tonight I am going to have a drink (its my way of praying) to the day off an hope we can rest up.
Anyone have thoughts on the recent losing streak?
Some extra tidbits of stats I thought were interesting.
1.We have the 3rd worst bullpen in the majors, just ahead of the rangers and mariners.
2. We also have the 3rd worst pitching with RISP in the majors, just ahead of the Padres and Rangers
3. Manny Ramirez hasn't had a homer or RBI and only 1 walk in the past 7 days (maybe longer).
4. J.D. Drew has cooled off ALOT. In the past 7 days, he is batting and slugging .190. All 4 hits have been singles. He is still drawing walks (6) which makes me think he might not be getting a pitch to hit, but he has recently been hitting in the 3 spot so I don't know.
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4-game losing streak
Everyone was ready to crown ourselves as 2008 champions after taking 10 of 11 games, but now that we lose five straight, the sky is falling. im not trying to pick on you drab, but I think you’re overreacting. Beckett and Buccholz dominated the last two games, but the offense couldn’t come through. The other 3 games were all lost by two or less.
It’s just been an unlucky week. Our starting pitchers are some of the best in the league, and our offense has produced consistently – with a couple exceptions. My one complaint is our bullpen’s inability to give up less than a few runs at the end of a game. I see some ERAs that are too high for comfort. Other than that, I think we’re ok. We have a day off, and then a home stretch at fenway. Go Sox
And don't forget the injuries and illnesses
Off the top of my head, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Youk, Lowell, Casey, and Papi have all been injured or flu-ridden recently. And I’m sure I’m forgetting a handful more. When over 1/3 of your roster gets hurt or sick at the same time, a losing streak is inevitable.
just a team slump
we’ll come back, i guarentee it. we are just injured and the (expletive) flu is going around, but our starting pitching is excellent. Buch took a 1-hitter into the eighth inning, and Beckett was dominant, by K’s surprisingly. Our run total in the series was 5 runs, 4 coming in the first game. Just admit all the Rays pitching was better than ours COUGH bullpen COUGH . We finally have a day off, and remember that was the end of a 20-game streak. We just ran out of gas amid the injuries, flu, and just being tired. Lugo seemed to have a billion errors, but Lowrie is almost ready to be a regular starter. We lost Tek, Lowell, Papi, and Casey, and everyone else seemed to be inconsistent this series.
If the right side of the brain controls the left side of the body, then only lefties are in the right mind. Bill "Spaceman" Lee
Momentum killers
I believe the problem is too many momentum killers that are discouraging the very, very good players we otherwise have. The mid-level length relief pitching, as typified by Del Carmen and Timlin, is sucking the momentum away because you need to score 8 runs to win with these guys pitching. Lugo kills any rally with his incessant and predictable ground balls for DPs or his clutch strikeouts. He has been doing this now for well over a year now. Why is he still around?? Now Drew is sinking back into his last year bad habits, but some of this may be his reaction to the momentum suckers as I do think he has potential!
Again, I mainly blame mid-length relief and Lugo. Management better deal with these 2 areas and soon, or this may end up like the 2006 season. If things don’t change and soon, I may be looking to sell my Seattle-Sox game tickets in Seattle in July. I don’t want to see another Seattle sweep like I did in 2006!
Positives
1) Beckett is healthy.
2) Dice-K looks better than 07 (maybe a little early)
3) Buchholz faced the Yankees and rebounded for a great week.
4) Okie still has it.
5) Paps is unhittable.
6) Aardsma has been better than I thought.
7) Masterson is legit or will be legit when he gets up OR great trade bait.
8) Coco can still be moved.
9) Lowrie is solid and could also be trade bait.
10) Its still early and the Sox are not the Yankees (injuries and young pitchers), Detriot (horrible pitching), and the Indians (cannot get out of their own way.).
11) We still have Josh Beckett and the Angels, Tigers, Indians, Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, do not. So we still win in the playoffs.
All in all we look pretty good for a team without Mike Lowell and a completely healthy starting staff.
Our bullpen sucks
But we lost all these games more because of bad luck and injuries than because of that. But we do not have a reliable bullpen, other than Paps and Oki (MDC can be great some games, and just plain awful in other games).
What pisses me off is that we wasted 2 great starts. Masterson should have gotten a W. Same with Buch…
Walk on, walk on With hope in your heart And you'll never walk alone You'll never walk alone
Nobody has MR...
Most teams have a closer and a set up man. IF you are in MR you are not good enough to start, close or set up..which means you are 1 or the bottom 3 pitchers on the staff.
Our bullpen, while sucking recently, is not as bad as many, Yankees, Detroit, Mariners, teams we will be fighting with to get a playoff spot.
While you're not wrong
A team should have at least 3 good guys in the bullpen, and the rest should be average. Detroit and Yankees don’t have that, but that’s an even worse issue with them. We have Oki, one of the best setup man in the MLB, and Paps, who is the best closer in the league. This should be a great bullpen, but it isn’t, because the other guys give way too many runs. If our starting pitcher can only give us 6 innings, we’re likely screwed.
That’s not a really big problem, but it is something bad. In some games, all of our hitters seem to forget how to hit. I don’t know how to solve that, so the bullpen thing seems to be easier to solve.
Walk on, walk on With hope in your heart And you'll never walk alone You'll never walk alone
by MerryGoByeBye on Apr 27, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
if it does not get better soon, I am sure we will either move someone or bring someone up and give them a try.
Unfortunately,
I have to GameDay most of my Red Sox games, so this is more of a question, but would Hansen help the pen? I didn’t see his recent outing. I know he might implode, but that doesn’t necessarily make him any worse than Timlin.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 28, 2008 2:26 AM EDT reply actions
Didn't see it either.
And it ended up being a rather big mistake, but I heard nothing but good things about everything he threw except for one pitch to Casey Kotchman.
Worst-case, we’ll see him again when someone wears out their welcome (again, in Bryan Corey’s case).
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Julius Erving is a doctor?"
I saw his outing.
Hansen’s stuff looked really good. He’d rediscovered his biting slider (90 mph), and had good velocity on his fastball. The HR was costly, but I think you can chalk that one up to the hitter; Kotchman’s had a great start to the season. I’d be happy to DFA Timlin and move Hansen up, right now.
Hansen does one thing I like
He throws strikes. Something Javier Lopez and MDC have not figured out. IF you look at that last game with the Angels. IF Terry put in Okie at the start of the 7th, he gives up 2 singles and gets out of the inning without giving up a run. Lopez’s 2 walks and MDC just being terrible put Okie in another situation and he did the best he could, 1 run.
If Hansen will come up and does not walk people I say let him stay and bring up Masterson as well. He definately throws strikes.
Ideal Lineup and Pitching Configuration
I just can’t wait for everyone to not be sick and for us to make the correct bullpen arrangement. So the following is my ideal lineup andPitching configuration.
Lineup:
1. Tacoby CF
2 DP 2B
3 Papi DH
4 Manny LF
5 Drew RF
6 Youk 3B/1B
7 Casey/Lowell 1B/3B (In that order, yeah I know)
8 Tek C
9 Lowrie SS
Starters:
Beckett
Dice-K
Schilling/Colon
Wakefield
Lester/Buch
Bullpen:
Closer: Tavarez…........oh man that was too funny sorry, PAPS of course
Setup: Oki/ Delcarmen
Setup/Setup (because our pitchers can’t seem to make it past 6 innings):
Masterson/Aardsma and MAYBE Lopez/Hansen
Long Relief: Tavarez
Everyone else in the bullpen I would NEVER even think of puting on the mound.
Delcarmen has been pretty crappy this year but he pitched awesome for us most of last year so I have faith he will come back to life soon.
Timlin is done.
Why don't let Masterson be the Long Reliever?
Or am I crazy? Also, Buch over Lester and Colon. He’s being looking good so far, all things considered. Lester has not.
Walk on, walk on With hope in your heart And you'll never walk alone You'll never walk alone
by MerryGoByeBye on Apr 28, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I like it
but I agree with MerryGoByeBye, Buchholz and Lester are in the rotation. I would go:
Beckett, Dice-K, Wake, Lester, Buchholz with Schilling filling in.
Anyone think about this…IF our MR does not get better, why not move Schilling into a MR, setup role?
The Sox have been looking for a reliable right handed arm to pair with Okie for 6th, 7th and 8th innings. IF the Sox pitching goes injury free, I would much rather have someone like Schilling in the pen, who did have some closing experience, then lets say Bryan Corey or Julian. Plus, Schilling has not proven he will be completely healthy. Maybe a Kerry Woods type of scenario, Schilling being a MR not closer role, would work when Schilling gets back.
Good idea? bad idea?
I don't think it'll happen.
Curt’s flirtation with relieving in 2005 should remind as all that he’s a starter first and foremost. And I’m actually guessing his shoulder wouldn’t respond well to that kind of workload at this point.
I think either MDC or Hansen will get things worked out and help Oki with the 7th-8th innings.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Julius Erving is a doctor?"
Pitching
I like the idea of Masterson being the long reliever, as long as Terry feels confident with our 8th/9th inning guys now, which I think he does.
I like Buch as well, and think he will move up very quickly. My only concern with your lineup is Wake in the 3 spot. Year after year with Wake in the 3 spot we have gotten torn apart. Wake will give you 15+ wins as long as he is in the 4 or 5 spot. Just look at 02-04. Wake just isn’t an option in the 3 spot even when he was younger.
This leaves the question who would you want in the 3 spot? Lester, Buch, Schill or Colon?
Lester needs to slide down till he gets his confidence back. Buch Wild is still just too raw and young. I would rather have Schilling or Colon there to help guide our young arms through.
I second the notion
At the moment, I’d like to see Beckett, Dice, Buch, Bizzaro John Lester (throwing strikes) and Wakefield. Assuming rehabs work okay, I’d like to see a stretch-drive/playoffs rotation of Beckett, Dice, Buch, Schilling and Lester – with Colon having spelled the youngsters at some point in the season.
I think our expanded rotation (Beckett, Dice, Lester, Wake, Buch, Schill, Fatolo) has a particular need for strong long relief. Paps, Oki and MDC should be for 7-8-9, but I really only trust Beckett, Dice and Buch to routinely handle 1-6.
Don’t get me wrong, we have guys with great stuff (or at least capable of great stuff), but they’re not necessarily guys where I feel like I can leave the game for a half-hour in the fourth, and not come back to find that the bad guys haven’t scored four runs. Lester, Wake, and Schilling tend to let things get out of hand quickly. Lester and Bucholz are young, and you don’t want to “Lasorda” them. Schilling, Wakefield, and Bartolo tend to miss starts with sore shoulders, backs, food-related injuries and Schill and Wake are older too. I’m happy to rely on these five guys through 4-5 innings and maybe 6 and 7, but I think prudence dictates a greater emphasis on strong long and middle relief to cover innings 5 and 6 (in case of fatigue) or 2-6 (in case of periodic suck).
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 29, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Not sold on Masterson as a LR.
It’s a waste of his talent. Start him here or start him in the minors. That or get him used to pitching only 1+ innings in AA or AAA, and let him come up and help the setup corps. The role Julian fills is, well, filled fine by Julian.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Julius Erving is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Apr 29, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Good Point
We should also look long term too. Do we want him as a reliever or starter? What does he pitch better as? Switching a young player back and forth from starter to closer can really mess with their mental mojo.
How much do you want to be manager?
Looks about right to me, except I also like the downstream idea of making Schilling a long reliever!
by NG on Apr 28, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Darn, wrong button again!
Make that upstream idea!
by NG on Apr 28, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

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