2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

by Randy Booth on Mar 3, 2008 9:24 AM EST in Community Projections

Over The Monster's community projections are back and we're kicking it off with a man that is looking for a better year: JD Drew.

You know how it works. I'll list a few categories and all you have to do is reply in a comment with what you think Drew will do in each category. I'll tally them up and we'll see what we've got.

Here are the categories. You can just copy and paste this form into the comments:

Games:
Runs:
Hits:
Doubles:
Home runs:
RBIs:
Batting Average:
On-Base %:

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Comments

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 95
Hits: 140
Doubles: 40 (I think he's going to find more gaps this season)
Home runs: 18
RBIs: 85
Batting Average: .292
On-Base %: .399

I have to think Drew will improve this season. I can't possibly see him regress at all...

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 3, 2008 9:28 AM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 90
Hits: 140
Doubles: 29
Home runs: 20
RBIs: 80
Batting Average: .285
On-Base %: .395

I agree Drew will bounce back

by drabidea on Mar 3, 2008 10:35 AM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 85
Hits: 130
Doubles: 30 (3 Triples)
Home runs: 17 HR
RBIs: 80
Batting Average: .280
On-Base %: .385

Drew will improve slightly, but probably not enough to silence the haters. I'd like to see his defense in RF improve; he was subpar or awful by many measures.
Drew reading material
Drew defies "conventional wisdom"
JD Drew relief fund

On a completely unrelated note, the Globe has some cool pictures of Sox players. There's a shot of our intimidating closer and another where Pedroia answers "Who's your daddy?"

by 0157H7 on Mar 3, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 145
Runs: 80
Hits: 145
Doubles: 35
Home runs: 16
RBIs: 90
Batting Average: .276
On-Base %: .372

by Albert Chang on Mar 3, 2008 3:31 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 100
Hits: 170
Doubles: 40
Home runs: 25
RBIs: 105
Batting Average: .298
On-Base %: .430

i feel optimistic

by Tippecanoe on Mar 3, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 133
Runs: 98
Hits: 146
Doubles: 33
Home runs: 17
RBIs: 89
Batting Average: .284
On-Base %: .390

by DANNDANN on Mar 3, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 142
Runs: 85
Hits: 160
Doubles:42
Home Runs:23
RBIs: 90
Batting Average: .268
On-Base: .355

I also think he will lead the club in hitting into double plays.

by Longsuffering on Mar 3, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 90
Hits: 160
Doubles: 35
Home runs: 20
RBIs: 85
Batting Average: .280
On-Base %: .380

by RSNexile on Mar 3, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 142
Runs: 86
Hits: 137
Doubles: 36
Home Runs: 25
RBIs: 97
Average: .288
OBP: .388

by CountyJez on Mar 3, 2008 5:29 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Glad to see most people positive on Mr. Drew...

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 3, 2008 6:07 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 145
Runs: 95
Hits: 165
Doubles: 33
Home runs: 22
RBIs: 103
Batting Average: .290
On-Base %: .385

I grabbed Drew in the 2nd to last round of my fantasy draft last night. Make me proud, J.D.

I forgive you Bill Buckner.

by tommy.otm on Mar 3, 2008 8:01 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 130
Runs: 87
Hits: 110
Doubles: 24 (I think people are absolutely crazy with predictions of 40 doubles...that would smash Drew's personal best...let's be realistic people.)
Home runs: 17
RBIs: 77
Batting Average: .282
On-Base %: .400

Looking at people's predictions I see people really high on Drew. I like the optimism, but I have to temper that by the belief that Drew is due for an injury prone season. I see a drop in games but a slight rebound in OBP. The high double totals are absurd but you know what, I want to see it happen! :)

by future on Mar 3, 2008 9:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 90
Hits: 160
Doubles: 35
Home runs: 20
RBIs: 85
Batting Average: .280
On-Base %: .380

by Jessicafish on Mar 3, 2008 10:37 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 94
Hits: 142
Doubles: 29
Home runs: 23
RBIs: 92
Batting Average: .302
On-Base %: .396

Call me crazy...

by Liza on Mar 4, 2008 12:53 AM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 143
Runs: 85
Hits: 138
Doubles: 35
Home runs: 17
RBIs: 87
Batting Average: .287
On-Base %: .400

Not to be a nit picker, but one thing I'm noticing is that most folks' hits projection is out of line w/their average projection. JD's averaged about 3.3 ABs/game over his career (and did as well last year), meaning a 1-1 hit-game ratio would be an average of .303. If we project high and say he's at 3.4 ABs/game (a little above where he was at in 06 - where in the order did he bat then, btw?) then a 1-1 hit-game ratio would mean an average of .294.

So if one projects him to 140 games and 160 hits (picking those bc I saw them a few times) he'd be hitting in the .336-.346 range.

Sorry, my inner, neglected math geek is coming out.

by B VT on Mar 4, 2008 2:22 AM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Yeh - I must admit I wrote down my estimate in each area and posted. Then I looked to see if it was even vaguely feasible, and decided that I'm going to be out somewhere. Still, nothing like hedging one's bets ...

Jez

by CountyJez on Mar 4, 2008 4:38 AM EST up reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Maybe for future community projections we should simplify it and focus on more revealing stats. Hits as a category isn't all that helpful; we get a better sense of how productive the player is from AVG, OBP and the number of extra-base hits.

Runs and RBIs aren't good measures of a player's skill either. They tell you more about the whole team's ability to score; put Juan Pierre on the Yankees and he'll have more runs and RBIs than on the Royals.

by 0157H7 on Mar 4, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Good idea. Or change it so the projection is about the skills relevant to that particular player. So for Drew, you might include OBP, extra base hits, put-outs at the plate, days on the DL, weak ground-outs to 2B.

When it comes to Lugo, include stolen bases, caught stealing, batting average, number of crotch grabs.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Mar 4, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 145
Runs: 95
Hits: 170
Doubles: 33
Home runs: 22
RBIs: 103
Batting Average: .290
On-Base %: .430

Drew is my favorite player. And getting a baseball signed by him has been my dream for a long time. I am really excited to make my dream come true, two days ago I got one: http://dealstudio.com/searchdeals.php?deal_id=88034&ru=279 , now I even want to meet him so badly and interview him about the matches, myself! Come on Drew!

by Jessicafish on Mar 4, 2008 3:14 AM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 90
Hits: 140
Doubles: 25
Home runs: 20
RBIs: 95
Batting Average: .280
On-Base %: .390

Now that i look at the projections here, they all look to be about the same. Oh well.

by Schulz on Mar 4, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Games: 140
Runs: 81
Hits: 160
Doubles: 32
Home Runs: 17
RBIs: 80
Batting Average: .292
OBP: .395

by gnick55 on Mar 4, 2008 10:38 AM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

G: 136
R: 83
H: 140
2B: 33
HR: 17
RBI: 70
AVG: .277
OBP: .380

Bonus:
BB: 73
SO: 90
SB: 3

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Mar 4, 2008 12:45 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

I'm lazy, and this is also the projection that is most in line with my feelings. Let's not be crazy and project record-setting OBP.

So: +1.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Mar 4, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

I'm with Britsox on this one.
My projection because I''m too lazy to do it any other way...
Last years figures + 5%.
AND still leading the team in groundouts to second base.

by sydneysox on Mar 4, 2008 5:39 PM EST reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Such pessimism. Considering Drew's athleticism and bat control, he could easily lead the team in groundouts to all parts of the infield.

by 0157H7 on Mar 4, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

Hahahahaha.

by Allen Chace on Mar 4, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

now THAT is funny!

by sydneysox on Mar 4, 2008 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

Re: 2008 Community Projections: JD Drew

That's almost as good as Julian Tavarez being 5-tool ugly.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Mar 6, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

Wha?

How did I miss that one? My God...

I forgive you Bill Buckner.

by tommy.otm on Mar 6, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Wha?

You might remember this thread, which took a surprising turn.

Bottom 9th B:1 S:0 O:0 With Bill Mueller batting, Dave Roberts steals (1) 2nd base.

by britsoxfan on Mar 7, 2008 3:17 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Wha?

I'm always impressed by uglying for power.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Mar 7, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions