Allen's Predictions for 2008.
by Allen Chace on Mar 27, 2008 12:13 AM EDT
in Open Thread
30 comments
We'll make this simple. I'm going to pick the division order, provide some limited rationale, then you come in with your own picks-slash-criticism of my picks. Should be fun, right?
AL East
via www.hphood.com
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Satanic Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Well. Who else was I going to pick for the top spot? Don't worry, trolls/lurkers, the Yankees scare the piss out of me. I think Pettitte slows a bit (more), but Wang will be himself, and count me among those who think Phil Hughes is going to have a good season. The offense, clearly, will be good. I'd pick the Jays to be involved in the race, if you could safely assume that Halladay and Burnett can combine for 60 starts. You can't assume that at all, and thus their good pitching staff won't overcome their lack of thump in the order. The Rays make their move this season, with a chance they even pass the Jays for 3rd. The O's are finally (somewhat) committed to rebuilding, and will enjoy all the benefits that has to offer them in 2008.
AL Central
via media.canada.com
1. Cleveland Clevelands
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Kansas City Royals
Pitching wins Central Divisions. But seriously. The Clevelands have the pitching, both in the rotation and the pen, and the Tigers are relying on some serious question marks in that department. One of two things will happen, the Tigers will miss the playoffs or be bounced quickly, or their last remaining blue-chip prospect will be trading uniforms with Huston Street. Their offense is going to be great, but factoring in some regression for Magglio Ordonez leaves me with the conclusion that it will not be enough to counter a weak bullpen and a starting rotation that has only two pitchers who aren't huge question marks (Verlander and Robertson). I say the Royals finish last, and I flipped a coin on Twins vs. White Sox for third.
AL West
via russianrelic.com
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Anaheim Angels
3. Oakland A's
4. Texas Rangers
Well. Umm. Hmm. This was made significantly more difficult to pick with the injuries to Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. It makes the M's, at least, an easier pick for those of us constantly annoyed by the Angels. Oh? Logic? Well. M's have a great 1-2 with solid and reliable 3-5, to go with a pretty good pen. Have to think at some point the M's will go with Balentien over Wilkerson which should help the offense. Even with the injuries, it's going to be a dogfight. The Angels are still good, with a great pen and a pretty good lineup. I have a feeling Casey Kotchman is going to grow as a hitter this year, and he was already very good last season. A's have better pitching than the Rangers, though many of their pitchers may be sent off at the deadline (Harden, Street, Blanton, Embree, Foulke).
...Wild Card? F. Didn't even think about that. Tigers. or Yankees. or Angels. or copping-out.
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I'm right there with you...
... and I'll take the Tiggers for the Wild Card. I don't trust their starting rotation enough to unseat the Indians with their superior pitching (once they install ANYONE as their closer other than "Mr 5.00 ERA" Borowski.)
But Magglio Ordonez? What? Who did you mean?
(check the AL Central section)
by Red Peltic on Mar 27, 2008 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nevermind
... about the Mags thing. For whatever reason I had a brain fart and forgot he signed with the Tigers. My brain locked up and I thought he was still on the ChiSox. My bad.
by Red Peltic on Mar 27, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hell.
As far as the Clevelands are concerned, let Borowski pick up the saves. I would guess that most of the time, Betancourt and Perez face the tougher hitters at the end of games regardless. If Kobayashi performs well at all, he + Betancourt + Perez + Lewis is going to be disgusting, no matter who faces three hitters at the very end.
Not that I disagree with you, really, but I think the Indians are smart enough to use Betancourt and/or Jensen Lewis as their relief ace(s) and limit Borowski to 3 outs. It should be one of those two closing, most likely, but they'll be fine even with him "nailing" down the saves.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Julius Erving is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Mar 27, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hi leverage situations
It's the old argument of using your best reliever (usually the closer) in the highest leverage situation to shut the opposing offense down. That argument usually fails, because relievers like to know what their role is. So, the Indians keep Joe-Bo as their closer and use their best relievers to work out of jams.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 28, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AL Central
I don't see how the Indians are going to win the division unless their hitting improves dramatically. Victor Martinez is poised for a down year and Hafner appears to be on the down side of his career. Grady Sizemore had an outstanding year last year but he most likely has reached his ceiling. The Indians have only two players A. Cabrera and Franklin Gutiérrez that will improve substantially over last year. The pitching staff is well stocked with young arms but that shouldn't be seen as a plus as inexperience will certainly hurt them. Carmona is due for a sizeable regression and his pitching mechanics will lead to an increase risk of injury. C.C is in a contract year so you should expect a similar year to last year but Paul Byrd could likely be out of the league by the end of the year. Jake Westbrook seems poised for a comeback year but he also has significant injury risk. Cliff Lee has won the 5th starter spot in the rotation and it certainly wouldn't be surprising if he was traded by the All Star break. The Tiger certainly have some pitching problems but the Indians pitching is not significantly better and many of their pitchers are injury risks or due for regressions to the mean based on last year performances. The Tigers offense should be considered 1b to the Red Sox 1a. The Indians would fall in the middle upper half of the league.
My prediction for the AL Central
1 Tigers
2 Royals
3 Indians
4 Twins
5 White Sox
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink
by E5 on Mar 28, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why the Royals?
They have a very talented and young team that is certainly on the rise and I expect that Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Teahan will be much improved. Also adding solid veterans like Guillen with Tomko will add some balance and experience that they need. Their bullpen is very undervalued and will develop into one of the better in the AL.
All Truth Goes Through Three Stages 1.It is ridiculed 2.It is violently opposed 3.Finally, it is accepted as self-evident LGT kinesiologist! Straw,Drink
by E5 on Mar 28, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their ace is Gil Meche
Enough said, in my humble opinion.
by Schulz on Mar 31, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indians > Royals
I don't think the Royals have the line-up talent or enough depth in the starting rotation to best the Indians. I do think the Royals could surprise the Twins and/or White Sox.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Apr 1, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Got To Go With the Tigers
That lineup will overcome most pitching woes that they have. Verlander is a legitimate ace, Bonderman had a down year but is still really young and will bounce back, Robertson usually pitches pretty well, and Rogers can deal when healthy. The weak part of their rotation is D-Train but that offense can overcome his 5.00 ERA.
by Gnick on Mar 27, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What? Who?
The Tigers? Sure, they might win a Wild Card, but Ordonez looks like a hammer hit him, Dontrelle can't hit the strike zone, and their sluggers are ... well, not sluggers. Sure, Verlander is great and Bonderman is young, but there's no assurance that he will (therefore) "bounce back." As for Rogers: he has crossed that thin line between old but still good -- and just old. So Cleveland remains the class of this league, for sure.
by river on Mar 27, 2008 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SoxDevil's predictions
A.L. East
1. 
2. 
3. 
4. 
5. 
The Red Sox have the depth to overcome injuries and have gotten younger this year.
The Yankees have a ferocious line-up that can blow games wide open, but can the geezers stay healthy? They could easily beat the Red Sox for the A.L. East pennant, but I think it requires a lot of things to go right for them. The Yanks are relying heavily on Young Inexperienced Picthers (YIPs): Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain. What happens when you rely on YIPs? Click here to find out. It's a great read.
I think the Jays have the ability to capture the #2 spot in the A.L East, but it will require healthy, productive seasons from Halladay, Burnett. A bigger contribution from Vernon Wells certainly wouldn't hurt.
A.L. Central
1. 
2. 
3. 
4. 
5. 
Cleveland has a more balanced roster and better pitching. I like their potential to win more games over the entire season, and I expect a rebound year from Pronk. Despite their vaunted line-up, Detroit has a lot of question marks in their pitching corps. They're the NYY of the Central division. I think the winner will be determined by which team can stay healthy.
A.L. West
1. 
2. 
3. 
4. 
I am not a fan of Seattle's line-up. You're relying on aging sluggers Raul Ibanez, Richie Sexson, and a productive, but uninspiring Adrian Beltre? Please! Their line-up is good enough to keep them in games, but the pitching is what will win for them. Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez comprise a fearsome 1-2. 3-5 the Mariners are decent, if uninspiring.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and All California (LAAoAaAC; "lah-oh-ah-ack") confuse the hell out of me. They have 6 outfielders who could arguably play full-time: Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews, Jr., Vlad "no-DH-for-me" Guerrero, Reggie Willits and Garret Anderson. The Angels also have a talented infield, which I'm a big fan of. I expect good things from Kotchman and Kendrick this year. This line-up will be a lot more productive than Seattle's. The only reasons they don't take #1 are the injuries to Lackey and . The rest of the rotation just won't win you the division. Sorry, LAAoAaAC.
All I have to say about the bottom two is that Oakland always surprises with mostly anonymous teams. The Texas "we're better of with Laird behind the plate" Rangers get no love from me. Decent line-up, but no pitching.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 27, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Playoffs
NYY is the Wild Card over Detroit, because the A.L. Central teams beat each other up.
A.L.D.S:
BOS over CLE
NYY over SEA
A.L.C.S.:
BOS over MFY
World Series:
BOS over NYM
The Mets have the squad to beat the Red Sox, but I just can't pick 'em.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 27, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AL WORST
I think the M's will frustrate people and are severely overrated, I think, especially according to the SABR community.
- Bedrard can't win 40 games himself
- The back end of the rotation has Washburn and Silva.
- They have no offense: Vidro is at DH, Wilkerson (BRAD FREAKING WILKERSON) will get every day AB, the Big Sexy is a Big Joke, Ichiro has no power, they traded their best young hitter, etc ...
LAA even with injuries has way more OF talent and their pitching will be fine. So they win the division with 88 wins, SEA barely gets 80.
KFC
"It's not like the end of the world or something. Why should we panic?"
-- Manny being Manny
by KFC on Mar 27, 2008 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bedard can't win 40, but I bet King Felix finally has it in him to win 15-20. Thats a pretty nasty 1-2 punch.
I wouldn't say they have "no" offense. They were 7th in A.L. in runs last year with 794.
They won 88 last year and have added Bedard. Don't forget they have JJ Putz anchoring their back end of the bullpen. That looks like a 90+ win team to me.
by Red Peltic on Mar 27, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Arm-less Angels
I just don't think the Halos have enough pitching depth to win the division. Lackey is hurt and Kelvim Escobar needs season-ending (and maybe career-ending) surgery. Sure, Jared Weaver is a good pitcher, but I don't think Garland, Saunders, and Mosley are good enough.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 28, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Picks: 1986 Will Be ERASED
AL EAST:
Boston
MFY (WC)
Toronto
Tampa
Baltimore
AL CENTRAL:
Cleveland
Tigers
Royals
Twins
White Sox
AL WORST:
LAA
SEA
OAK
TEX
Boston beats LAA (AGAIN!)
MFY beats CLE
ALCS = Boston beats MFY in 5
NL EAST:
NYM
ATL (WC)
PHIL
WAS
FLOR
NL CENTRAL:
CUBS
REDS
BREWCREW
ASTROS
PIT
STL
NL WORST:
ZONA
LAD
COL
SD
Sfr
Cubs beat ATL
Mets bets ZONA
METS beat CUBS in 7
World Series: Sox over Mets in 6
KFC
"It's not like the end of the world or something. Why should we panic?"
-- Manny being Manny
by KFC on Mar 27, 2008 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Only nitpick on yours, really, is that the NL Worst is now/has been the Central.
Cubs, Brewers, Reds, and absolute crap.
At least the Giants are the only team in the West that will no doubt have an embarassing season. The Pirates, Astros, and Cardinals could all do so as currently constructed.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Julius Erving is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Mar 27, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I would agree with Allen. The NL West is pretty loaded this year with a lot of good, young position players and fielders. A lot of those teams (sans San Fransisco) are teams on the way up that are only getting better.
A few of the NL teams should be relegated to AAA though if you ask me (see Pirates, Pittsburgh).
by Red Peltic on Mar 27, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Point --
I never thought about it that way, the NL West has been so bad for so many years it was a knee jerk reaction. The NL Central is by far the worst division.
I think the Cards and Astros could both be really bad, esp if they suffer any injuries. STL in particular is fielding a very mediocre OF team this year (outside of Albert).
KFC
"It's not like the end of the world or something. Why should we panic?"
-- Manny being Manny
by KFC on Mar 27, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not Drinking the Mariners' Fresca
- I see your point Red Peitic, SEA's bull-pen is good, at least Putz is good. If Morrow can be an 8th inning stud, like Scott Shields used to be (or Oki-Doki, etc ..), they can protect a lot of games. And obviously King Felix and Bedard are a great 1-2 punch.
- I think the 88 games is a mirage though in terms of what they were projected to do -- and are projected to do this year --
- PECOTA projects them to score 687 runs, Take that for what you want, I think PECOTA does a very good job (the best maybe?) at this time of projection.
- Their offense is getting older and not younger, compared to LAA esp. Replacing Guillen (who had a really good year), with Wilkerson is sort of a joke; Vidro is definitely a joke (why is he still playing?). Lopez at 2B and Betancourt at SS don't bring a lot of fear to opposing pitchers.
- PLUS, they sent down Clement, who would have been a much better choice at DH than VIDRO (hell, who isn't a better choice than VIDRO) and traded Jones + about 5 young arms to get Bedard. They have no depth anymore.
- I just feel like they are getting a lot of press for the Bedard trade and their overachieving last year.
But, as they say: "That why they play the games."
KFC
"It's not like the end of the world or something. Why should we panic?"
-- Manny being Manny
by KFC on Mar 27, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good call
.. about PECOTA.
I wouldn't be suprised if they called up Clement and played him at DH/backup Catcher if Vidro shits the bed.
I wasn't suggesting they will be the best in the A.L., just the possibly the best in the West considering poissibly season ending injury to Escobar and the present "gimpyness" of Lackey. Although I think Lackey will come right back from his present ails, losing a guy who won 18 games for your club in the prior year is very tough to replace.
by Red Peltic on Mar 27, 2008 7:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
AL WORST
Yep, Escobar's injury definitely hurts the LAA, though the did get Garland and their young pitchers are pretty good -- something that SEA doesn't have, SP depth and youngsters.
Its a good call about Clement -- I mean, they can't expect to win a division with Vidro as a DH, can they?? And maybe Wily Mo Pena Lite, W. Balentien, contributes when Wilkerson inevitably gets hurt .
And if they bring up Clement and if the Big Sexy produces, they should score more runs than PECOTA projects.
It will be a good race, no doubt. But nothing like the AL BEAST -- where the big boys play! Go Sox.
KFC
"It's not like the end of the world or something. Why should we panic?"
-- Manny being Manny
by KFC on Mar 27, 2008 8:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's..
premature to say this, and I agree with you about Seattle not having the greatest SP depth, but their 3-5 are very reliable and happen to all have great track records as far as health goes. If Bedard and Hernandez combine for 30 starts, they're one of the teams least likely to have need for SP depth. Having 10 or less starts coming from below replacement-level pitchers could be huge for them in terms of the final standings, what with the Anaheim Angels' depth already being challenged.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Julius Erving is a doctor?"
by Allen Chace on Mar 27, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The M's
I have a feeling King Felix will start living up to his title this year. He's 22 - younger than Clay and Joba, and only two months older than Hughes, and he's got a 3:1 K/BB ratio and a 110 ERA+ in 450 career innings. He could be one of the best, fast.
He and Bedard *could be* the best 1-2 in baseball.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
by tommy.otm on Mar 27, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My picks
AL EAST
NYY
BOS
Tampa Bay Satanfish
TOR
100-game losers
The Sox could win 95-100 games and swat (or run-prevent) their way to another title - they have that talent. All that has to happen is for Lester find to his control, Buchholz to harness his promise, Manny to rebound, Lowell to keep mashing, and Tek to hit at least .250/.350/.400. It could happen. The Yankee offense worries me, however. Every year I expect the team's age and lack of pitching depth to catch up with them. That happened last year, and their team sucked for the first few months. Then they went on a tear and finished with 94 wins. I think their underlying talent is too good, and this year they will take the division. PECOTA agrees, sadly. Whatever happens, I don't see the WC coming out of the East. The Rays will emerge this season. Kazmir/Shields/Garza will be huge, Pena won't regress much, and they have young hitting talent like Upton and Longoria. I think they are 3rd with a chance at breaking 2nd. Toronto has fewer injuries, which derailed the season last year, but still comes in 4th. Striving against such greatness isn't easy, but Baltimore goes right down to The Wire in losing 100 games.
AL Central
Detroit
Cleveland *Wild Card*
Twins
Royals
Chicago
Detroit's pitching improves over last year's debacle; its hitting astounds. Playing with in a division with three rebuilding teams means the Indians, who will have lost a step, will still win the WC. Speaking of water closets, did I mention the Twins, Royals, and Chicago are rebuilding?
AL West
Angels
Mariners
As
Even Chuck Norris couldn't rescue these rangers
The warlike Angles will invade the West and set up an egalitarian society based on the principles of Common Law and ritual sacrifice to the Rally Monkey. With their seven mighty center fielders, they shall conquer all opposition. Mariners fans will be few and won't be proud. Sorry, but their lineup can, and will, hit worse than last year, and any pitching gains will be offset by bullpen regression. Oakland will suck without Haren; Texas would still suck with him.
NL
Mets, Cubs, Dbacks win divisions; Padres win WC. The Dodgers, taking a cue from their player evaluation staff, block up and coming manager by signing an over-priced and overrated has-been. They lose the season 79-83, with the pen blown out in May and their league-best prospects riding the pine.
Playoffs
Indians scalp Yanks... in 3 games. Tiggers pounce at odd Angles. Indians beat Tigers in ALCS. Mets and Indians play first exciting world series in ages, it goes to seven games, but the Indians pull it out, in a rain-soaked, extra-innings, walk-off finale.
Hopefully I'm wrong. Hopefully a lot of people in New England will be enjoying free Jordan's Furniture this year. An exciting season has already begun. Now when will the damn pre-season end?
by 0157H7 on Mar 28, 2008 12:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sadly
I agree that your A.L. East finish could come to pass.
However, I still think TB has a long way to go before they finish 2nd. Nevertheless, they have made big strides in the last few years. The emergence of James Shields makes a big difference for them, and the Garza deal should pay dividends soon, if not this year.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
by SoxDevil on Mar 28, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Getting Back to Detroit
People really don't think that Detroit has a good enough offense to carry them through the AL Central. They're lineup is absurd, Dontrelle can give up six runs a game and still rack up 15 wins. Ordonez might come back down to earth but a .330/.400/.550 line or so is reasonable. Cabrera is an absolute stud and I would not be surprised if he hit .345/40/150. Sheffield is supposedly 100% and poised for another 30 HR year. Granderson will hit at least 20 HRs and steal quite a few bases at the top of that lineup. And guys like Guillen, Polanco, Pudge, and Renteria are solid year in and year out (okay maybe not Renteria that one year), especially Guillen.
Overall, I just feel that Detroit has a good enough offense to carry them to the top of the division. Their pitching isn't bad either, it's just not quite as good as Clevland's due to Clevland's superior bullpen.
by Gnick on Mar 28, 2008 12:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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