Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2008 11:33 AM EDT in Community Projections

Due to reader request, here is our second community projections of the off-season: Daisuke Matsuzaka. Our first one on JD Drew exploded with a lot of guesses, so let's hope we see the same for Dice-K. As always, please copy and paste the form below in the comments:

GS:
IP:
Wins:
Losses:
SO:
BB:
ERA:
WHIP:

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Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 208
Wins: 17
Losses: 8
SO: 215
BB: 55
ERA: 3.40
WHIP: 1.10

Overall, I see a much better season for Daisuke, but I'm not sure if the offense is on his side or not...

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2008 11:36 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 200
Wins: e^0 * Log (10^18)
Losses: 13415/0
SO: 210
BB: 60
ERA: 3.90
WHIP: 1.25
HR: 22

by 0157H7 on Mar 18, 2008 12:04 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

That's 18 wins for the Mathematically-challenged.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Mar 18, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Always gotta' make things difficult, don't ya? :)

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Yes. I don't think Wins and Losses tells us that much about the individual player's performance, but for the sake of making things easier, losses should be 10.

by 0157H7 on Mar 18, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

I certainly agree, but it's just two more stats to predict, so why not?

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

18 & 10? Eight wins more than losses? Am I understanding that correctly?

Am I the only one scared to think that we will get 8 more wins from a pitcher we're spending that much money on?

Can I assume this is ok? Can I assume this is the norm? Am I just the only dumb person out here? Wouldn't I want to bring a pitcher out of retirement for 8 wins?

Feel free to beat me up... just throwing thoughts to the field!

The Red Head

by the red head on Mar 19, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Don't worry about it. W-L is utter bs for evaluating talent. Let's say pitcher A pitches in 30 games. In each game, he pitches seven innings and gives up one run. However, he's playing on the 2008 Baltimore Orioles, so his team has trouble scoring runs. In fact, he gets a decision in only 15 games. He pitched superbly in every game, but W-L only reflects a fraction of those. What's more, he got an average of 1 run of support per game, resulting in a 7-8 record.

Now put our imaginary pitcher on the New York Yankees of 2007 or 06, with an average of 5 runs per game, and he probably wins 23 or 24 games.

Applying the idiocy of Win-Loss record to the Red Sox:
Last year Tim Wakefield won 17 games, only 3 fewer than Josh Beckett. Beckett was #2 in Cy Young voting, and his ERA (3.27) was over a run lower than Wake's (4.76).

by 0157H7 on Mar 19, 2008 11:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Yes, applying the theroy to the Sox is my point exactly (I think?!!). What was the average runs produced by the Sox last year? They won the WS, they won the Eastern Division, etc., get my point yet?

So, I still want more than 8 wins from my number two starter. I'll accept a 15-8 record for Wake, but that's it.

Dennis

The Red Head

by the red head on Mar 20, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 202
Wins: 16
Losses: 9
SO: 210
BB: 65
ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.25

by drabidea on Mar 18, 2008 12:24 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 34
IP: 210
Wins: 19
Losses: 7
SO: 212
BB: 75
ERA: 3.25
WHIP: 1.29

by SoxAcumen on Mar 18, 2008 12:57 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 31
IP: 205
Wins: 19
Losses: 8
SO: 224
BB: 62
ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.21

by gnick55 on Mar 18, 2008 2:40 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 210
Wins: 17
Losses: 8
SO: 210
BB:65
ERA: 3.85
WHIP: 1.25

by Schulz on Mar 18, 2008 2:49 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 214
Wins: 19
Losses: 7
SO: 210
BB: 52
ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.19

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Mar 18, 2008 3:01 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 31
IP: 200
Wins: 17
Losses: 9
SO: 210
BB: 60
ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.20

by RSNexile on Mar 18, 2008 4:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 205
Wins: 17
Losses: 11
SO: 215
BB: 55
ERA: 3.30
WHIP: 1.15

I think he'll keep runners off the bases pretty well this time around.

by Liza on Mar 18, 2008 6:13 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 34
IP: 210
Wins: 20
Losses: 7
SO: 212
BB: 75
ERA: 3.25
WHIP: 1.29

hopefully he should get some better run support and keep guys off the bases

Your ticket source for all New England events. Support the locals!

by greaterbostontickets on Mar 18, 2008 7:24 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Bugger it, I think he'll just rock this year...

GS: 33
IP: 216
Wins: 21
Losses: 6
SO: 228
BB: 68
ERA: 3.28
WHIP: 1.22

by sydneysox on Mar 18, 2008 8:27 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 217
Wins: 18
Losses: 10
SO: 217
BB: 70
ERA: 3.80
WHIP: 1.26

by Hisx1nc on Mar 18, 2008 10:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 211
Wins: 17
Losses: 7
SO: 224
BB: 78
ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.18

by future on Mar 18, 2008 10:05 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

His biggest concern are walks, he surrendered 80 free passes last year, and if he cuts that amount in half or even 40% Dice-K will become that ace that everybody is expecting him to become.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Mar 18, 2008 10:08 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

He never seemed to get that high strike that he got in Japan, so I reckon he'll adjust.

I see the walk rate declining by about 20-25% and him adjusting to the hitters better this year. Also, I think his his inning management will be heaps better. He threw enough pitches last year to cover about 220 innings, he just had some shockingly high pitch counts in some innings last year.

by sydneysox on Mar 18, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

It always seemed like that the umpires wouldn't give him some of the calls. I remember early in the season the Sox were playing Toronto, and Dice was pitching in the 4th inning and he threw a back door breaking ball that was called a ball and that screw up Dice-K's composure. I expect him to get a lot more close pitches than he did last year. Also, the Sox blew some early games in which Dice K should have gotten the win. He easily could have been a 20 game winner last year.

"Why not us?"

by reversecursing on Mar 18, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Agreed. I remember watching games last year that he would throw a filthy pitch that would buckle the knees of the hitters and would never get the call. The guy got the shaft from the umps.

by drabidea on Mar 19, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 32
IP: 215
Wins: 21
Losses: 7
SO: 210
BB: 68
ERA: 3.85
WHIP: 1.18

What will I win?

I forgive you Bill Buckner.

by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2008 10:34 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

A hug? ... from Allen?

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2008 11:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sweet.

I forgive you Bill Buckner.

by tommy.otm on Mar 18, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Sweet.

I hear he gives good hugs. Especially to fellow Red Sox fans. He's a squeezer though, so be careful.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 18, 2008 11:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Good gracious guys.

That is a piss-poor prize.

Nonetheless, I accept your terms.

by Allen Chace on Mar 19, 2008 3:57 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 34
IP: 185
Wins: 15
Losses: 11
SO: 184
BB: 66
ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.27

Rob Crawford, Vice President of Red Sox Nation, www.crawdaddycove.com

by RegularRob on Mar 19, 2008 12:26 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

Ah, we have royalty on our hands. Welcome to Over The Monster, Mr. VP.

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Mar 19, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 31
IP: 194
Wins: 18
Losses: 9
SO: 221
BB: 64
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.14

by DANNDANN on Mar 19, 2008 4:16 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 30
IP: 201
Wins: 17
Losses: 8
SO: 185
BB: 51
ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.12

by CountyJez on Mar 19, 2008 6:02 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 28 (misses two games due to...?)
IP: 196 (avg. 7 innings a game)
Wins: 21
Losses: 5
SO: 221
BB: 65
ERA: 3.18
WHIP: 1.10

The guy who expects more out of the players today.

Dennis

The Red Head

by the red head on Mar 19, 2008 2:45 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 33
IP: 216.2
Wins: 18
Losses: 10
SO: 202
BB: 71
ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 1.23

by rorro on Mar 19, 2008 4:24 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS: 30
IP: 196
Wins: 18
Losses: 9
SO: 221
BB: 65
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.14

by talcopimnb on Mar 20, 2008 4:46 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

It's amazing how popular this thread is (30+ comments). Maybe we should project Dice-K more often...

by 0157H7 on Mar 20, 2008 1:19 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

GS:32
IP:213
Wins:19
Losses:8
SO:216
BB:78
ERA:3.98
WHIP:1.21

I expect dice-k will adjust and not fade down the stretch this year.He might have control problems, though.

majorblogging.wetpaint.com

by BoSox415 on Mar 21, 2008 10:54 AM EDT 0 recs

Re: Community Projections: Daisuke Matsuzaka

I posted this a while ago on another thread, but I think Dice-K was underrated last year. He was 15-12, but if you think about it, the sox lost eight games in which he gave up 2 or fewer runs (he took the loss in five of them). He also won three games he shouldn't have- giving up 5 or more runs.

If you swipe these games from his record, he was a 12-7 pitcher, rather than 15-12. Projected over 30 decisions, Dice-k would have been 19-11.

by Schulz on Mar 22, 2008 10:13 AM EDT 0 recs